March 2016 - Water Market Insights 181

We invite you to join us Thursday, March 10 for a free webinar to discuss the market for gas turbine combined cycle systems and components. This market is growing faster than other markets in the U.S. as well as other countries. Click Here to Register

$40 Billion Gas Turbine System Equipment and Parts Market Will Be Impacted By Many Factors

The present market for gas turbine system equipment and parts is $40 billon. The market will grow faster than GDP over the next 10 years, but the rate of growth for systems is subject to a number of variables. The rate of growth for some individual products will be much higher. For example, the revenue for gas intake filters and high performance coatings will grow at double digit rates even if the number of units does not.

Due to normal operating temperatures, there is considerable deterioration of parts and need for replacement. The more recent practice of cycling operations as many as 200 times per year is creating flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) problems and increasing part deterioration rates. As a result, the present market for parts and consumables of US$11.5 billion will grow faster than the new plant market. Another reason for the comparative gain of parts over new product purchases is the increasing ratio of plants in place to new plants being constructed.

More than $4 billion will be spent for pumps and valves in 2016. Some of the product forecasts incorporate portions of other forecasts. For example the forecasts for stainless steel and high performance coatings are in part included in the pumps and valves forecasts.

There is a very large market for treatment chemicals including corrosion control and scale inhibitors. Intake water treatment for the steam and cooling systems, ultrapure water treatment for fogging nozzles, and wastewater treatment all require substantial yearly expenditures for chemicals.

The rate of growth for various products in coming years will be driven by a number of variables, including the following:

Category	Factor	Driver	Market Impact
General	Fuel price	Low gas prices	Based on long term forecast not present prices
	Alternative power generation	High cost of offshore wind, subsidies	Europe moving back to gas
	Electricity prices	Regulated vs. unregulated	Total cost of ownership
Products	Air intake filters	Higher efficiency for turbine protection	Could boost market by 50%
	SCRs	Regulations in Europe and elsewhere	Big increase in market where required
	Pumps	FAC and other cycling challenges	Market growing faster than total GT market
	Valves	FAC and other cycling challenges	Market growing faster than total GT market
	Seals	Pump, valve, compressor and new turbine designs	Market growing faster than total GT market
	Zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems	Regulations, aridity and reluctance to wait for water permits	Growing market in U.S., China and elsewhere
	Stainless Steel	New turbine designs	Continuing opportunity for high performance materials
	HRSGs and steam turbines	Addition of steam tail to existing peakers to meet energy and greenhouse gas goals	Substantial market impact as many plants are upgrading
Regulatory	Greenhouse gases	Limits or penalties on CO₂ emissions	Negative impact on market vs. renewables but positive vs coal
	Harm to aquatic life	Regulations forcing less intake and less once through water	ZLD, dry cooling, municipal water reuse
	Water discharge limits	U.S. has new regulations	More ZLD
	NO_x emissions	Tough regulations in U.S. and potential new regulations in Europe	Steady positive impact on SCR and urea markets as prices are lowered in various countries

Regulatory impacts will be important in determining not only the volume of products which will be sold but the margins at which those products will be sold. International suppliers will want to offer products at higher prices but with lower total cost of ownership than the local suppliers.

For suppliers, the primary thing to realize is that regulated utilities in the U.S. go through a rate-making process which guarantees a reasonable profit based on reasonable expenses. These utilities are going to be more interested in low cost solutions, otherwise the cost may not be fully accepted by a utility commission.

Unregulated entities, on the other hand, are much more market oriented and motivated by profit. These companies will be interested in cost effective solutions, which might include efficiency improvements or lower long term maintenance and operation cost improvements.

A webinar on March 10 at 10:00 a.m. CST will cover the market and many of the variables. It is free of charge. Click Here to Register

Knowledge Beats Muscle in Gaining Market Share in Flow Control and Treatment Industries

The economic progress of the world can be characterized by the increasing market share of knowledge over muscle. In the flow control and treatment industry this knowledge to muscle ratio will change more rapidly in the next decade than at any time in the past.

Increasing market share in the flow control industry can be likened to a treasure hunt. Knowledge will determine the flow control treasure hunt winners in the future. The lone hunter who understands each clue better will win out over the aggregate muscle of multiple hunters engaged in unfocused searching.

The value proposition is the first clue. Why will the product reduce the total cost of ownership more than the competitor’s product in each specific industry and process within that industry? Muscle is a big promotional investment claiming superiority. Knowledge is creditable facts and research which is organized and available to those who can best use it.

The second clue is the specific market potential in each geography, industry and process. Muscle is top down guesstimates based on a myriad of statistics and assumptions. Knowledge is the bottoms up analysis of each industry and process

The third clue is the identification of projects and customers. Large customers and large projects represent a major portion of the market. They need to be identified long before the typical sales lead would be received. Within the purchasing entity there are behind-the-scene decision makers who are very important. To increase market share it is important to reach these individuals.

The fourth clue is a coordination. Management, engineering and sales should all be involved in creating value propositions for each product in each industry. Market forecasts should be in sufficient detail to create quotas or targets for each sales territory. Feedback from these sales people should be part of a continuous effort. Many opportunities involve multiple geographies and products. Voluntary bottoms up rather than top down program using the KOC strategy (Knowledge, Organization and Collaboration) will pay big dividends.

The McIlvaine Company has a number of treasure hunt programs for flow control and treatment companies. More information on them can be obtained by contacting Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com or 847-784-0012 ext. 112.

A Complex Multitude of Air Quality Decisions Need to Be Made by the World’s Coal-fired Power Plants

Coal-fired power generators supply more electricity than gas, wind or solar. Expenditures for new power plants continue at a rate in developing countries sufficient to ensure that the net world coal-fired generating capacity will continue to increase. Both existing power plant operators and new power plant developers have a large number of complex decisions to make about achieving air quality.

Power Plant Air Quality Decisions is a combination of alerts and decision systems, which helps the power plants make the best decisions and helps suppliers understand the issues and options.

Option A	Option B	Option C
Mercury Reduction
Activated Carbon	Chemicals in Fuel	Absorber Module
Mercury CEMS	Sorbent Traps	Both
DeNOx
SCR	SNCR	Catalytic Filter
SO₂
Wet Scrubbers	Dry Scrubbers	Direct Injection
Lime/Limestone	Sodium	Ammonia
Particulate
Precipitator	Fabric Filter	Hybrid
Opacity monitor	Mass Monitor with Physical Capture	Mass Monitor with Electronic Measurement/ Conversion
Discrete Particles	Condensibles	Total particulate
Hourly limits	Daily limits	Yearly Limits
Selenium Capture
Activated Carbon	Scrubber	Not Captured
HCl Capture
Chloride Salts in Dry Mix	Chloride Salts Washed from Gypsum	30% Grade Hydrochloric Acid

There are a number of other decisions which influence the above choices. If there is a market for flyash, it will impact the choice of mercury and SO₂ capture technologies. If the expected plant life is long, then the particulate and SO₂ technology selections will be different than if the remaining life is short.

There are many new developments which are likely to change future decision making. The catalytic filter with direct sorbent injection combines three devices into one. More importantly, it provides clean hot gas at 850°F and facilitates maximum heat recovery and energy efficiency.

The use of gasified waste as a “reburn” fuel reduces operating costs and reduces the CO₂ footprint. The use of treated municipal wastewater plus zero liquid discharge (ZLD) technology makes the plant a positive contributor to improved water quality in the region.

The extraction of rare earths and valuable metals from the ash promise to make coal-fired power an important resource.

Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis

§ Supreme Court bars Coal Industry Petition for unlimited Mercury Emissions

§ China and Pakistan sign Contract to build a Coal-fired Power Plant in Pakistan

§ Edenville Energy to invest in Coal-fired Power Plant and Coal Mine in Tanzania

§ Meubolah Coal-fired Power Station Two Unit expansion in Aceh Province, Indonesia

§ Proposed 625 MW Unit 9 planned for Banten Suralaya Power Station in Banten Province, Indonesia

§ 300 MW Unit 3 Kaltim Teluk Balikpapan Power Station expansion announced in East Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

§ PLN to build $2 Billion Coal-fired Power Plant in Banten, Indonesia Next Year

§ BHEL wins $822.9 Million Contract to build thermal power plant in Tamil Nadu, India

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.

McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.

Format: 50-90 minute recorded discussion using McIlvaine display material. The session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is required.

Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and services.

Markets HTH
The general overviews of the market including size and major variables will be discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers. The presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in McIlvaine multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and non-subscribers are encouraged.

Decisions HTH
McIlvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since 1974. Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric filter, scrubber, etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on any application. The newest addition has been slide deck systems displaying the issues and options relative to a specific applications. Coal-fired power, cement, steel and waste combustion decision slide decks are continually updated.

The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable decision system. It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance of the session and be prepared with questions and views.

Value to purchasers and specifiers: Your questions and interests will be prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future along with a networking directory of suppliers.

Value to Suppliers: You have the opportunity to provide data to be considered at no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries in advance and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered in the slide deck. If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly newsletter and continuing yearly access to the system including networking directories.

44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision services but not 2ABC. So those with multiple technologies and at least partial focus on power will find this combination most cost effective.

Applicable Services for Hot Topic Hours**
Pollutant	Industry	Fabric Filter (1ABC)	Scrubber (2ABC)	Precipitator (4ABC)	FGD & DeNOx (3ABC)	Air Pollution Monitoring (9ABC)	Gas Turbine Decisions
Mercury February 11, 2016	Coal				X	X
	WTE	X	X			X
	Sewage		X	X		X
	Cement	X				X
	Natural Gas*
DeNOx March 24, 2016	Coal				X	X
	Incineration				X	X
	Steel				X	X
	Cement				X	X
	Diesel*
	Gas Turbine				X		X
Hot Gas Filtration	Coal	X	X	X		X
	WTE	X	X	X		X
	Cement	X	X	X		X
	Steel	X	X	X		X
	Incineration	X	X	X		X
	Coal Gas	X	X			X
	GT Intake						X
FGD and Acid Gas June 16, 2016	Coal				X	X
	Sewage		X			X
	WTE		X			X
	Cement		X			X
	Steel		X			X

Dates for the next 6 meetings are firm; the others will be held in sequence at approximately two week intervals. Unforeseen developments could dictate the insertion of new subjects.

DATE	SUBJECT
March 10, 2016 *Markets*	Gas Turbine - Intake filter, SCR, NH₃, HRSG, valve, pump, instrumentation and cooling options (dry vs. wet); treatment chemicals; challenges with FAC due to extensive cycling. Click Here to Register
March 24, 2016 *Decisions*	NO_x Control - Review of the issues and options for NOx control in coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste to energy plants as well as mobile diesel vehicles. Click Here to Register
April 7, 2016 *Markets*	Power Generation Technologies - Future of USC coal in India, Vietnam and Indonesia; natural gas prices; GHG regulations; nuclear costs; penetration for wind and solar. Click Here to Register
April 21, 2016 *Decisions*	Hot Gas Filtration - Issue and Option for particulate capture. in coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration. Click Here to Register
June 16, 2016 *Decisions*	FGD and Acid Gas Separation - Issue and options for SO2 and other acid gas separation from coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration plants. Click Here to Register
TBA *Markets*	Desalination - Thermal vs. Membrane; energy recovery, pump, valve, compressor and chemicals options; power/desalination combinations.
TBA *Markets*	Oil, Gas, Refining - Supply and demand; impact on flow control and treatment products; regional impacts e.g. subsea in North Atlantic vs. shale in the US vs. Oil Sands in Canada.
TBA *Markets*	Food - Analysis of 12 separate applications within food and beverage with analysis of valve, pump, compressor, filter, analyzer and chemical options; impact of new technologies such as forward osmosis.
TBA *Markets*	Municipal Wastewater - Quality of pumps, valves, filters, and analyzers in Chinese and Asian plants; new pollutant challenges; water purification for reuse.
TBA *Markets*	Mobile Emissions - Reduction in CO, VOCs, and particulate in fuels, oils, and air used in on and off road vehicles; impact of RDE and failure of NO_x traps and the crisis in Europe created by the focus on diesels.