Flow Control and Treatment Companies Will Be Unevenly Impacted By the Chinese Slowdown and Oil Priced Drop

The flow control and treatment market will grow by 2 percent in 2016 to $340 billion.  In general small Asian suppliers will achieve the highest percentage growth. The performance of the large international companies will be mixed.  McIlvaine is analyzing each of the larger companies to compare their forecasts to the world market trends.

Clarcor will join many other international flow control and treatment companies who will experience revenue losses in 2016 while the world market increases modestly.  The strength of Clarcor is that a large percentage of the sales come from consumables rather than capital equipment.  The weakness is the low market shares in Asia and certain other geographies where growth will exceed the average.

Clarcor anticipates revenues falling by approximately 2 percent in 2016 based on revenues of $1.4 billion.

Mobile filtration revenues will be up worldwide by 4 percent as more vehicles are driven more miles.  The primary growth will be in Asia.  The poor quality of ambient air in Asian countries and the need for air filters in homes and commercial buildings will help boost stationary air filtration sales by 4 percent.

The stationary liquid filtration sales will be down only modestly due to the high percentage of consumables in the mix.  Oil production will be up in 2016 even if the capital expenditures for new equipment will be down substantially.  Companies such as Clarcor who sell replacement filters will benefit.

Two of the major unknowns and concerns in 2016 are the price of oil and gas and the status of the Chinese economy.  Neither one of these should have a substantial impact on Clarcor sales due to its mix of products.

The growth in LNG production in the U.S. is a positive factor for Clarcor.  Clarcor expects sales of gas turbine inlet filters to remain flat in 2016 but the world market will be up by more than 5 percent.  This is a combination of increased power generation but also increases in unit selling prices.  High efficiency filters selling at twice the price of existing medium efficiency filters can be justified based on improvements in gas turbine operations.

A number of power plants around the world are converting their particulate control technology from electrostatic precipitators to fabric filters.  This could boost filter sales by more than 20 percent per year when the movement is fully implemented.  The challenge for the BHA group within Clarcor will be to achieve high market shares in countries such as China, Russia, Chile and Italy where these conversions are presently taking place.

The McIlvaine Company forecasts market shares and markets for all the products made by Clarcor in the following publications:

N064 Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market 

N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market     

N022 Air Filtration and Purification World Market  

N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market

59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program

N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects

Coalescing Filters (contact for details)

Mobile Filtration (contact for details)

20,000 MW of New Gas Turbine Facilities in the U.S. Are Being Built By Just 10 Companies

Annual increases in gas turbine power generation in the U.S. will be 18,000 MW/yr over the next five years.  The ten largest developers have 20,000 MW underway at 24 different sites.  This is the conclusion of the McIlvaine Company in 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.

The ranking of the ten largest power producers is based on the proposed gas turbine-based power capacity.  (We limit our data only to those projects which are currently still on track and are either in the approval or permitting process or currently under construction.)

Of particular interest is that half of these companies are private companies owned by investors with the primary intent of developing the facility, perhaps operating it for a while, then selling it at a profit when the timing is right.  (The five are Panda, CPV, Advanced Power, Coronado and NTE.)  The activity by private companies creates an additional challenge for large component suppliers who must forge new relationships.  It is a benefit to smaller suppliers or those new to the market that has more difficulty being considered by the large utilities.

The U.S. will account for more than 20 percent of the new gas turbine power generation in the next few years. This makes it an attractive market for suppliers of power plant systems and components

For more information on 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/610-59ei

McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours (HTH) and Recordings

Explanation          Applicable Services         Schedule & Registration       Sponsored Webinars

McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.

Format:  50-90 minute recorded discussion using McIlvaine display material. The session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is required.

Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and services.

Markets HTH
The general overviews of the market including size and major variables will be discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers.  The presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in McIlvaine multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and non-subscribers are encouraged.

Decisions HTH
McIlvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since 1974.  Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric filter, scrubber etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on any application.  The newest addition has been slide deck systems displaying the issues and options relative to a specific application.  Coal-fired power, cement, steel, and waste combustion decision slide decks are continually updated.

The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable decision system.  It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance of the session and be prepared with questions and views.

Value to purchasers and specifiers:  Your questions and interests will be prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future along with a networking directory of suppliers.

Value to Suppliers:  You have the opportunity to provide data to be considered at no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries in advance and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered in the slide deck.  If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly newsletter and continuing yearly access to the system including networking directories.

44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions  includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision services but not 2ABC. So those with multiple technologies and at least partial focus on power will find this combination most cost effective.

Which Subjects should be discussed in the Mercury Hot Topic Hour (HTH) February 11?

There are lots of questions about how to meet mercury emission limits in various industries and countries.  Answers to these questions will be continually addressed in a new McIlvaine Program including a Hot Topic Hour (HTH) discussion on February 11.  The details on the program are explained below along with the specific issues and options we plan to discuss. We encourage your input in advance to add additional questions and to provide answers.

Our Decisions HTH on Mercury, DeNO_x and Hot Gas Filtration will be based on decision slide decks which will be continually updated prior to and subsequent to the webinar.  End users and subscribers have free access to the online slide decks.  It is all explained at Hot Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings on the McIlvaine Company website.

The Mercury HTH will focus on questions from end users as well as discussions about the merits of various approaches.  One of the biggest contributions will be to provide cross pollination between industries.  The sewage sludge incinerator plants in the U.S. and the waste-to-energy plants in Europe have some cutting edge technologies which need to be evaluated for use in other industries.

Here is the McIlvaine view of the status and potential of the technologies for the various industries:

E = experience P = potential                                           H = high, M = medium, L= low,   U = unknown

Are the experience and potential ratings for the various technologies accurate?  If you think otherwise you can say so during the session or better yet—send us some support data in advance.

Each application has technology which may prove valuable for one or more of the other applications.  For example, the ionic liquids are a new approach being used in natural gas mercury removal. The pilot systems show advantages over carbon pellets.  Sewage sludge incinerators use carbon pellets and Gore modules. 

Which industries should consider ionic liquids and Gore modules as an alternative to the present approach?

Sewage sludge incinerator operators have selected absorber modules instead of carbon pellets for more than a dozen installations.  Coal-fired power plants are also using adsorber modules as one of the approaches.  Sharing of information on both applications will be beneficial.

Non-ferrous smelters are using metal filters but are also using scrubbers with unique liquids. The Boliden-Norzink process involves the following three steps. First, mercury scrubbing occurs in the reaction tower. The reaction tower is a counter-current absorber tower made of fiber glass reinforced polypropylene plastic. In the reaction tower, the HgCl₂ solution is sprayed evenly in the packing area and reacts with mercury in the flue gas. The second step involves the production of the calomel mercurous chloride (Hg₂Cl₂), which is suspended in solution.  Some of the Hg₂Cl₂ is also sent to chloride process. During the final step, the Hg₂Cl₂ is oxidized by Cl₂ in the stirring tank.

The extensive use of chlorine in solution has been implemented in waste incineration in Europe. Many waste-to-energy plants have multi stage scrubbers with the first stage being used to make salable 30 percent hydrochloric acid. 

What happens to the mercury in this first stage scrubber?

Is the knowledge gained by the non-ferrous industry of use to WTE operators?

The potential use of the WTE acid loop by the power industry is transformative.  The coal-fired power plant would become a chemicals complex with production of rare earths, precious metals, hydrochloric acid, gypsum or sulfur and flyash.  The WTE experience plus the Chinese and U.S. initiatives for extraction of rare earths from flyash can lead the way to the power/chemicals complex.

McIlvaine believes that the acid loop is transformative.  What do you think?  Is there any reason in situ leaching is not vastly superior to the approaches by the Chinese government and the U.S. DOE?

There are lots of monitoring related questions.

Where do you use sorbent traps and where do you use CEMS and shouldn’t you use both?

Is the answer different for each of the industries?

How much mercury is escaping in the particulate form?

Should you use one CEM and two sample ports or two CEMS to analyze both inlet and outlet mercury?

One of the experts displays slides showing that CEMS are less expensive than sorbent traps for life cycles longer than two or three years. Do you agree?

There are lots of questions about the addition of chemicals.

If bromine is used with the coal: 

·       Is the corrosion worry just with section 45 installations?

·       Is 75 ppm of bromine safe but 150 ppm risky?

·       What about Mitagent or other chemicals to reduce corrosion potential?

·       Where should halogens be injected?

What about preventing re-emissions from the scrubber.

How much additional mercury capture is achieved with chemicals added in the scrubber loop?

Is activated carbon a viable choice for the recirculating scrubber loop?

The choice of activated carbons is important.  We need to explore the differences between one carbon and another and also to determine where and when activated carbon should be injected.

How much performance improvement has been made by activated carbon manufacturers?

What removal efficiency and what will be the cost for activated carbon if I just have a precipitator?

If I have a dry scrubber, how much efficiency reduction is possible from SO₃ interference and can I inject sorbent ahead of the air heater to eliminate this potential?

How much selenium will be captured with AC?

What about concrete friendly AC and the impact on the sales of flyash?

If I operate with dry sorbent injection, do I add the AC prior to or with the sorbent?

Mercury and NO_x control variables.  The decisions on NOx control effect the mercury reduction choices.

How much mercury oxidation is achieved in so called standard catalysts vs. the newer offerings which balance NO_x reduction, SO₂ conversion to SO₃ and mercury oxidation?

Regulatory issues and questions abound.

If I emit particulate mercury but don’t report it since I am using CEMS which measures gaseous emissions as required, do I have any liability?

Will China more broadly pursue the Near Zero Emissions (NZE) goals with mercury limits similar to the U.S. or will this just be a demonstration in certain cities and provinces?

Will the true cost initiative which shows that mercury and fine particulate are major costs in producing cement in China lead to mercury controls for this industry?

Since one major Chinese cement company is also the world leader in co-combustion of sewage sludge, will there be more extensive mercury controls on his plants?

How many countries require CEMS for mercury emissions from waste-to-energy plants?

Each of the six decision slide decks will be revised until February 10.  McIlvaine will be at EUEC this week where many of the suppliers of mercury removal products will be exhibiting or speaking. McIlvaine has a stand.  Also you can meet with Bob McIlvaine by contacting him in advance at mobile #847 226 2391.

HOT TOPIC HOUR (HTH) SCHEDULE

Dates for the next 6 meetings are firm; the others will be held in sequence at approximately two week intervals.  Unforeseen developments could dictate the insertion of new subjects.

Click here to Register for the Webinars

___________________________________________________________________________

----------

You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5

Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com