Desalination Market Webinar Thursday 7/14/16 at 9:00 a.m.

We will conduct a webinar on desalination markets next week. The perspective will be proactive with the ambitious belief that it is possible to shape the future rather than be its victim.  McIlvaine is heavily involved in combustion, distillation, membrane technology, water use and treatment.  Further perspective is gained from the knowledge of regulations.  For example, coal-fired power and coal to chemicals plants in China have to use desalinated water if they are near coasts and have to install zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems.

The rapid development of membranes for improved desalination economics needs to be addressed in making any forecasts. Evoqua believes that alternatives and variations to RO will be more cost effective. Since cost will be the driver, the technology developments will be very important in determining the market.

All this seemingly unrelated knowledge allows us to recommend initiatives to maximize the beneficial application of desalination. Let’s take one example which we will explore on Thursday.  Forward Osmosis.  McIlvaine is creating a decision guide on Forward Osmosis (FO) (see next article).  One of the most promising uses of FO is in power plant wastewater ZLD.  FO appears to be ideal for Chinese power plants who are both desalinating their cooling and other water requirements and meeting ZLD.  The problem with FO is that you need to use a solute with higher salt content than the wastewater.  The brine from SWRO desalination can be used as the solute.  The advantages are that the energy consumption for ZLD is substantially reduced.  At the same time, the water content of the brine is increased.  One of the criticisms of desalination is the return of concentrated brine to the sea.

The major options for desalination are thermal or membrane.  Alternatives are use of fresh water which in many cases means transport from other locations.  In others, it means lowering the water table.  There is also the cost consideration.  San Diego opted for desalination rather than importing Colorado River water despite the high capital cost.  The decision was based on long-term costs and availability of the fresh water source.  The question is should the decision be based on cost over 20 years or 40 years or some other time span?  These options necessitate questions such as what is the value of a ton of water in an arid area vs. an area with plentiful water?  What is the negative value to downstream Colorado River residents vs. the benefits to San Diego residents?

More CO₂ will be generated by desalination than by transport of fresh water.  So you have to ask what is the value of a ton of CO₂ vs. a ton of water in an arid region?  McIlvaine has developed a metric to measure the harm and good of every option.  The tribal value assessment allows one to gain perspective on issues such as consideration of Colorado downstream residents interest.  The present value assessment provides perspective on the length of time to be used in the comparison of desalination vs. fresh water. These three metrics will be briefly discussed.

The webinar will also address the long-term water needs by region and will provide general forecasts for the investment in desalination with some segmentation by thermal and membrane methods.  Click here to Register for the Webinars

Forward Osmosis Decision Guide in Preparation

The value of forward osmosis technology is being hotly debated as the interest grows and new opportunities are uncovered. Unlike other membrane technologies, forward osmosis is very seldom a stand-alone process.  It can be used to convert tomato juice to tomato paste but then you have a diluted salt solution with which to contend.  The energy savings comes from the creation of a higher salinity draw solution.  One approach is to create draw solutions from which fresh water can be easily extracted.  This requires energy.  Choosing the best draw solution to minimize the separation energy is the key to the success of this approach.

Another approach involves using a draw solution which benefits from the additional water.  The perfect example is seawater RO brine.  Water can be extracted from high strength wastewaters to dilute the salinity of the brine being returned to the ocean.  This makes the brine return more environmentally acceptable.  Liquid fertilizers provide another interesting option under the category of Fertigation.

A third approach is to utilize FO in a more complex series of treatment steps. For example, if it can reduce the size and cost of an evaporator, the economics could be attractive.

FO has been utilized or pilot tested in many different applications in power, oil and gas, food, mining and other industries.  Due to the complimentary aspect of the technology there are many different uses to investigate.  In order to help the industry stay abreast of these developments, McIlvaine is creating a Forward Osmosis Decision Guide. This effort should be complimentary to the extensive efforts undertaken by the international Forward Osmosis Association and others.  In fact, links to the ongoing work by various groups is provided in the decision guide.

The Forward Osmosis Decision Guide is displayed on a stand-alone website for which a password is required.  At this point in time it is free to all prospective users. Ultimately, it will be free to FO system operators and would be owners but others will pay a fee.

The guide is segmented into:

Overview-applications—systems—membranes—solutes—suppliers.

Each power point is displayed with an area for questions and comments.  Users are encouraged to send back their comments/questions to a particular slide.  These comments will then be posted on that power point (organized version of a blog).  Users are also encouraged to supply power points which will be considered for inclusion but with some editing.

For more information and to receive your password click on:   http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article?id=1137

Gas Turbine Plant Operators Will Spend $1.7 Billion for Water Treatment Chemicals Next Year

The market for water treatment chemicals for gas turbine plants is growing at rates considerably greater than GDP.  This is the conclusion in the continuously updated N026 Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals: World Market published by the McIlvaine Company. Sales in the Americas will top $670 million in 2017.

Sales in EMEA will be $50 million less than in the Americas. Asia is still primarily relying on coal. As a result, 2017 treatment chemical sales will be $385 million.

The use of water treatment chemicals is primarily in the steam cycle loop.  However, in hot try climates, fogging nozzles are used to add mass to the intake air. This water must be ultrapure to avoid damage to the turbines. The use of fogging nozzles is widespread in some countries within EMEA.  This large region has areas where treatment chemicals markets will grow robustly and others where growth will be low.

The energy mix for power generation in Europe varies greatly, from France with 76 percent nuclear power, to Norway with 97 percent hydropower, to Poland with 80 percent coal-fired generation.  The drivers affecting future energy mixes are very complex and often contradictory.  Global warming and air pollution concerns are driving power generation away from coal.  The Fukushima disaster in March 2011 is driving some countries (such as Germany) away from nuclear power.  High gas prices have led to an overcapacity of gas-fired generation in Western Europe.  The only clear winner appears to be renewable energy.

Countries in the CIS region rely on a diverse mix of fuels for power generation.  For example, Belarus relies almost exclusively on natural gas, Kazakhstan heavily on coal (81 percent) and Ukraine largely on nuclear power (45 percent).  In reality, however, Russia is the dominant force in the CIS.  With huge natural gas reserves, Russia uses natural gas to generate roughly half of its electricity.  Until very recently, however, gas-fired power plants in Russia have been conventional steam plants rather than open-cycle or combined-cycle gas turbines.  The country previously emphasized standardization in power plant design and foreign OEMs encountered difficulties introducing new technologies due to Russia’s strict codes and standards.

Russia began to liberalize and privatize its power market around 2008.  One goal of the privatization program was to boost the installation of new, more efficient power generation facilities so that more gas could be freed up for the international market.  Liberalization efforts have created a trend away from highly standardized power generation toward more optimized and tailored combined cycle solutions.  Russia had only 3 GW of combined cycle capacity at the end of 2008, but added another 13 GW over the following five years (2009-2013).  Continuing growth is expected.

Africa’s power sector is split into two distinct regions; northern African nations rely almost exclusively on oil and natural gas, whereas South Africa relies on coal for over 90 percent of its power generation. 

·       Gas-fired power generation has more than doubled in the last five years in Algeria, from 5,189 MW in 2008 to 10,521 MW in 2013.  Algeria’s public utility, Sonelgaz, is pursuing a large-scale investment program to add an additional 12,000 MW of gas-fired generating capacity by 2019. 

·       Nigeria’s National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) was initiated in 2004 to build ten gas-fired power plants by 2010 (actually completed in 2012), totaling 4,250 MW.  Nigeria introduced another major power sector reform package in May 2010 to double power production from 24,000 GWh to 54,000 GWh by 2017. 

The Middle East relies primarily on oil and gas for power generation, largely because the region has ready access to significant oil and gas resources.  A sharply rising demand for power in the region is being driven by population growth, a rapidly expanding industrial sector, the high demand for air conditioning during the summer months, and heavily subsidized electricity rates.

The market for treatment chemicals in power and other industries is analyzed in N026 Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals: World Market 

New projects and existing plants are identified in 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program

Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants will spend $1.3 billion for Odor Control Scrubbers Next Year

Municipal wastewater plants invest heavily in odor control scrubbers. Worldwide purchases next year will exceed $1.3 billion.  The largest regional purchaser will be East Asia followed by NAFTA.

In East Asia the biggest expenditures will be for odor control at new plants. In Western Europe and NAFTA, the biggest expenses will be to upgrade and repair odor control systems at existing plants.  Here are some examples from recent McIlvaine North American Wastewater Treatment plant updates.

·       In Bangor, Auburn-based T Buck Construction will begin a $2.3 million project to replace the Bangor Wastewater Treatment Plant’s biofilter media system and repair the tower that contains the system. The projected lifespan of the biofilter is about 12 years, but most layers in the Bangor tower have been working nearly around the clock for 23 years. Only the top layer has been replaced — twice in the past two decades. That top layer suffers the most wear and tear because it’s exposed to the sun and elements.

·       Ludington, Michigan is purchasing a vapor phase odor control system as a result of odor complaints from neighbors.

·       Short Elliot Hendrickson is engineering the odor control project for the Osage Pre-treatment facility in Mitchell County.  Odor control equipment has been installed and should be operational as of July 5, 2016.

·       The Fresno-Clovis plant in Fresno, California just issued bids for an odor control upgrade.

·       Norwalk, Connecticut has a $4.5 million capital budget to solve the odor control problems from its South Smith Street plant.  ARCADIS is working on the project.

For more information on N008 Scrubber/Adsorber/Biofilter World Markets

For more information on 62EI North American Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facilities and People Database

India Flow Control and Treatment Revenues will reach $12 billion in 2017

Flow control and treatment revenues in India will grow by more than 8 percent this year and reach $12 billion in 2017.  The Indian economy is now the world’s 9^th largest. GDP growth is forecast to exceed 7 percent.

In the air segment, revenues of $2.7 billion will be achieved in 2017.  The leading product will be fabric filters which are used in air pollution control in many industries. Most of the revenues of $801 million for electrostatic precipitators will be generated in the power industry.  However, the power sector will spend little on flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and NO_x reduction.

Industrial valve and pump revenues will be widely spread across industries such as power, refining, municipal water and wastewater, chemicals, food, mining and pharmaceuticals.

Liquid treatment revenues will reach $2.6 billion in 2017 with each of the four segments sharing the market fairly equally. The big change over the last few years has been the increased market share for cross-flow membranes.

For more information on the Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/610-59ei

For more information on the individual reports, click on:

Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis

Here are some headlines from the Utility E-Alert.

UTILITY E-ALERT

#1279 – July 1, 2016

Table of Contents

COAL – US

·       Three Webinars to assist PacificCorp in selection of NO_x reduction Technology

·       EthosEnergy uses Innovative Solution to complete Coal-Fired Plant Repairs in North Dakota

·       Groundwater at Plant Yates contaminated

COAL – WORLD

·       Joint Venture SEPCO and Power Development Board of Bangladesh sign MoU for Coal-fired Power Plant in Maheshkhali, Bangladesh

·       Egat reaffirms Coal-fired Power Plants for Thailand

·       Supporting renewables with Coal-fired Power Plants

·       GE agrees with Harbin to establish Coal-fired Power Station for $8 Billion in Egypt 

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.

HOT TOPIC HOUR (HTH) SCHEDULE

Click here to Register for the Webinars

Details on Webinars

McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.

Format:  50-90-minute recorded discussion using McIlvaine display material. The session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is required.

Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and services.

Markets HTH
General overviews of the market including size and major variables will be discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers. The presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in McIlvaine multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and non-subscribers are encouraged.

Decisions HTH
McIlvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since 1974. Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric filter, scrubber etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on any application. The newest addition has been slide deck systems displaying the issues and options relative to specific applications. Coal-fired power, cement, steel, and waste combustion decision slide decks are continually updated.

The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable Decision System.  It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance of the session and be prepared with questions and views.

Value to purchasers and specifiers:  Your questions and interests will be prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future along with a networking directory of suppliers.

Value to Suppliers:  You have the opportunity to provide data to be considered at no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries in advance and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered in the slide deck.  If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly newsletter and continuing yearly access to the system including networking directories.

44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions  includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision services but not 2ABC. So those with multiple technologies and at least partial focus on power will find this combination most cost effective. 

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You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5

Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com