March 2016 - Power Air Quality Insights 247

Market for Flue Gas Desulfurization Equipment Will Range between $5 and $10 Billion/yr. over the Next Seven Years

Major variables are making it impossible to predict the size of the power plant flue gas desulfurization (FGD) market over the next seven years. Under the most conservative scenario, the investment in new systems plus upgrades and replacements will be just $5 billion/yr. Under an optimistic scenario, the revenues will exceed $10 billion/yr. The factors impacting the market include:

· Cost of electricity compared to alternative sources such as gas and renewables

The U.S. market will be primarily a replacement market. The cost of gas-fired power is low, there are tough regulatory pressures on coal, and there is an illogical program to operate old coal-fired power plants rather than replace them with new ones even though limited life new power plants could be justified economically for the time frame.

Europe will build new coal-fired power plants to replace existing ones, but is not likely to expand its coal-fired fleet.

Asia is expanding its coal-fired generation and is a big potential market. Japan, Taiwan, Korea and China incorporate FGD on all new coal-fired power plants. There is uncertainty as to the utilization of FGD in new coal-fired power plants which will be built in India, Vietnam, Indonesia and other Asian countries.

The biggest wild card is China. It has spent more money on FGD than the rest of the world combined over the last five years. A combined program addressing both retrofits and new units created a huge market. Now most of the retrofits have been made and there are representations by some Chinese officials that coal will be de-emphasized in the future.

The facts create a different picture. A large number of new Chinese coal-fired power plants have been approved. There is the potential for nuclear to generate up to 50 GW but this is less than the incremental increase in electricity consumption which will be needed each year.

The Chinese economic expansion depends on expansion of electrical capacity. Per capita consumption is only one third of that in the U.S. even though the Chinese energy consumption per unit of GDP is more than double that in the U.S.

The most serious pollution problems in China are recognized to be the smog caused in part by the lack of electricity and need to utilize high polluting solid fuels in small industrial and commercial facilities. The average Chinese citizen will give much credit to a government which reduces smog but very little to one which reduces the world’s greenhouse gases.

The present McIlvaine forecast is for the FGD market to average over $7 billion/yr. over the next seven years with about $4.5 billion attributable to new installations and $2.5 billion attributable to upgrades and replacement parts.

Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis

§ Proposed 1,320 MW Astoria Ceyhan Power Station for Adana Province, Turkey

§ Proposed Adana Klikya 815 MW Supercritical Coal-fired Unit near Sugözü Village, Yumurtalık district, Adana Province, Turkey

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.

McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.

Format: 50-90 minute recorded discussion using McIlvaine display material. The session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is required.

Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and services.

Markets HTH
The general overviews of the market including size and major variables will be discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers. The presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in McIlvaine multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and non-subscribers are encouraged.

Decisions HTH
McIlvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since 1974. Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric filter, scrubber, etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on any application. The newest addition has been slide deck systems displaying the issues and options relative to a specific applications. Coal-fired power, cement, steel and waste combustion decision slide decks are continually updated.

The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable decision system. It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance of the session and be prepared with questions and views.

Value to purchasers and specifiers: Your questions and interests will be prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future along with a networking directory of suppliers.

Value to Suppliers: You have the opportunity to provide data to be considered at no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries in advance and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered in the slide deck. If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly newsletter and continuing yearly access to the system including networking directories.

44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision services but not 2ABC. So those with multiple technologies and at least partial focus on power will find this combination most cost effective.

Applicable Services for Hot Topic Hours**
Pollutant	Industry	Fabric Filter (1ABC)	Scrubber (2ABC)	Precipitator (4ABC)	FGD & DeNOx (3ABC)	Air Pollution Monitoring (9ABC)	Gas Turbine Decisions
Mercury February 11, 2016	Coal				X	X
	WTE	X	X			X
	Sewage		X	X		X
	Cement	X				X
	Natural Gas*
DeNOx March 24, 2016	Coal				X	X
	Incineration				X	X
	Steel				X	X
	Cement				X	X
	Diesel*
	Gas Turbine				X		X
Hot Gas Filtration	Coal	X	X	X		X
	WTE	X	X	X		X
	Cement	X	X	X		X
	Steel	X	X	X		X
	Incineration	X	X	X		X
	Coal Gas	X	X			X
	GT Intake						X
FGD and Acid Gas June 16, 2016	Coal				X	X
	Sewage		X			X
	WTE		X			X
	Cement		X			X
	Steel		X			X

Dates for the next 6 meetings are firm; the others will be held in sequence at approximately two week intervals. Unforeseen developments could dictate the insertion of new subjects.

DATE	SUBJECT
March 24, 2016 *Decisions*	NO_x Control - Review of the issues and options for NOx control in coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste to energy plants as well as mobile diesel vehicles. Click Here to Register
April 7, 2016 *Markets*	Power Generation Technologies - Future of USC coal in India, Vietnam and Indonesia; natural gas prices; GHG regulations; nuclear costs; penetration for wind and solar. Click Here to Register
April 21, 2016 *Decisions*	Hot Gas Filtration - Issue and Option for particulate capture. in coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration. Click Here to Register
June 16, 2016 *Decisions*	FGD and Acid Gas Separation - Issue and options for SO2 and other acid gas separation from coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration plants. Click Here to Register
TBA *Markets*	Desalination - Thermal vs. Membrane; energy recovery, pump, valve, compressor and chemicals options; power/desalination combinations.
TBA *Markets*	Oil, Gas, Refining - Supply and demand; impact on flow control and treatment products; regional impacts e.g. subsea in North Atlantic vs. shale in the US vs. Oil Sands in Canada.
TBA *Markets*	Food - Analysis of 12 separate applications within food and beverage with analysis of valve, pump, compressor, filter, analyzer and chemical options; impact of new technologies such as forward osmosis.
TBA *Markets*	Municipal Wastewater - Quality of pumps, valves, filters, and analyzers in Chinese and Asian plants; new pollutant challenges; water purification for reuse.
TBA *Markets*	Mobile Emissions - Reduction in CO, VOCs, and particulate in fuels, oils, and air used in on and off road vehicles; impact of RDE and failure of NO_x traps and the crisis in Europe created by the focus on diesels.