Mcilvaine Insights

No. 78   October 3, 2018

WELCOME

Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

• Determining Competitor Market Shares and Strategy
• HVAC Filter Market, Market Shares, IIoT, and TCO are Inseparable
• October Valve Update has Insights on a Range of Important Topics

October Pump Update has Insights on Markets, Competitors and Exhibitions

Determining Competitor Market Shares and Strategy

The McIlvaine Company provides market share data for thousands of air, water and energy companies. However clients are seeking even greater segmentation by industry, region and specific product.

One of the tools for this more extensive segmentation is activity at exhibitions. The geographic distribution as well as industry focus can be determined.  The detailed analysis of exhibition activity at WEFTEC is shown at Municipal Wastewater Services.  There were many water related exhibits at Singapore International Water Week. We have a 20 page analysis just of the pump companies with displays.  We have been analyzing exhibition activity every third year for IFAT in Munich and were a participant in the Pump Summit last year.

We have also just completed an analysis of exhibitors of non-woven filter media at Filtration 2018.  The focus is on air filtration, gas turbine, and dust collector media with a more minor focus on liquid filtration media.  Filtech held in Europe is more focused on filtration equipment rather than media and has the largest display of filtration equipment of any show around the world.

A number of power related shows are reported in our Utility E Alert including smaller venues such as the VGB air pollution conference or the Indian FGD & DeNOx conference last week.  Power-Gen shows in several regions of the world  include substantial Combust, Flow & Treat (CFT) space.  The OTC exhibition in Houston is one of the largest oil and gas exhibitions with more than 100 CFT exhibitors. Interphex in NYC has dozens of displays by CFT pharmaceutical suppliers.  ACHEMA in Frankfurt provides hundreds of displays of CFT products for the chemical industry every third year.

The Cleanroom Technology exhibition in the U.K. and a number of smaller European exhibitions such as Lounges provide displays of filtration, instrumentation, pump, valve and other CFT products used in cleanrooms.  The industry focused shows such as Semicon West have a number of displays by CFT suppliers but the CFT percentage of total space is low.

Advertising is also a good indicator of activity by product, industry and location. We tabulate the number of pages, the subject matter and the service in which we will be evaluating it.

One  revelation from an analysis  would be the substantial amount of advertising by Magnetrol on level control measurement. These advertisements appear in a number of industry focused magazines and reveal a multi-industry marketing approach. The large investment in advertising is an indicator of the ‘pull” rather than “push” marketing approach.  This further indicates a company selling based on lowest total cost of ownership.  It also indicates a company which seeks to understand the processes and industries where its product is used.

This advertising leads to the website where the use of level controls in various specific industries and processes is discussed.  The following link is to the Magnetrol brochure on coal fired boilers.  It has good process flow diagrams to accompany the product descriptions for each application.

http://us.magnetrol.com/Literature/1/41-191.2_Coal_Fire_Power_Brochure.pdf.

Some of the advertisements are general and reference a number of products. DuPont for example has a full page advertisement with coverage of  EDV scrubbers,  sulfur recovery processes and several other products. By contrast the A-T advertisement is on just one type of lining for one type of valve.

The advertising and exhibition activity can be a function of initiatives to gain market share rather than just keep it.  Therefore tracking this activity over time is useful.  For example one chemical company had the largest stand at WEFTEC a few years ago and did not have a stand this year.

The market reports where this competitor analysis appears are  shown at http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 784 0012 ext. 112 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

HVAC Filter Market, Market Shares, IIoT, and TCO are Inseparable

There is no set of government or association statistics which provides HVAC filter sales let alone future projections. The building blocks to reasonable analysis are knowledge of the processes, knowledge of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of filters for each process, and the aggregation of sales by the individual participants.

One venue where insights on market share and total cost of ownership is available is The Filtration 2018 conference and exhibition this week in Philadelphia. The  key note address was by  Michael Meis Lead Research Specialist, 3M who describes the use of a blue tooth enabled pressure sensor on each filtrate furnace filter. An automatic purchasing program entails tracking of pressure by 3M and delivery of new filters when needed. The result is precise market data about sales of filters to each individual homeowner.

Filtration is an annual conference alternating between Philadelphia and Chicago. It features presentations and exhibitions by filter media suppliers as well as companies selling components. It is the largest display of HVAC media of any exhibition being analyzed by McIlvaine.

If the 3M approach can be justified for $20 filters it can certainly be justified for the larger filters used in industry and commercial buildings. The world  HVAC filter next year will be $8.3 billion - but this does not include the total solutions approach such as Michael presented.

 A total solutions approach increases revenue potential by 20 percent or more but has even a greater impact on market share and EBITA  for those who pursue it.

Knowledge about total cost of ownership and market shares for competitors is necessary to forecast the market opportunity but it is equally valuable in creating a successful sales program. If the competitor is armed with the output of sophisticated data analytics regarding TCO then it will be very important to provide equally convincing data showing a lower TCO for the suppliers product.

Knowledge of the processes is the first step in analyzing TCO. A sugar refinery will have sticky dust in the ambient air.  An HVAC system on a drilling rig will entail higher labor costs for filter changes and will have to deal with oil fumes. Rahul Bharadwaj, Nathaniel Nance and Michael Osborne of AAF analyzed HVAC TCO in Filtration News December 2017 www.filtnews.com

They list the following factors impacting TCO

·       Local energy costs

·       Worker wage costs

·       Filter resistance

·       Effective filter service life or  Dust Holding Capacity (DHC)

·       Procurement costs

·       Labor costs to change filters

·       Duct cleaning costs

·       Disposal costs

·       AC coil cleaning costs

·       Cost of the filter

·       Compliance risk and liability costs.

The media selection affects each one of these factors and in most cases is more important than any other aspect of the filter. Therefore these factors can be used to evaluate the market opportunity for various types of media. A number of new media developments were presented this week at Filtration 2018.  For example there are displays of multi-layer and or fiber filtration media incorporating nanofibers.  How does this compare to membrane filtration for gas turbine applications? Are HEPA filters rugged enough to withstand the cycling of gas turbines in extreme environments? Answers to these questions shape the market.

The filter media forecasts are contained in the following McIlvaine Market Reports

N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market

N022 Air Filtration and Purification World Market

N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market

N020 RO, UF, MF World Market

N006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847 784 0012 ext. 112

October Valve Update has Insights on a Range of Important Topics

The market outlook for the industrial valve industry is ever changing. The marketing plan and the supporting forecasts should be current.  N028 Industrial Valves: World Market  provides continuing adjustment of 50,000 forecasts.  There are also monthly updates such as the one for October 2018.  Here is a summary of that update and a link to the full text.

Creating a Winning Strategy for the Valve Market (3 pages)

There is now the opportunity to make market research and associated technical analysis the foundation of a business strategy rather than a peripheral tool.  Sales leads are used because the supplier does not understand customer needs.  If the supplier has detailed forecasts of the opportunity with each purchaser, understanding of the purchaser needs, the products to best serve those needs, and the optimum program with publishers, and conference organizers he will have a winning strategy.  The media and conferences strengthen the “pull” impact and should receive greater consideration as an alternative to the “push” strategy with sales leads. However, this applies mostly to high performance products

Valves at WEFTEC  (4 pages)

Stand coverage is provided for suppliers of valves used in both air and liquid applications.  There were 30 control valve exhibitors, 34 check valve exhibitors and equal numbers of gate and plug valve exhibitors. The valves used with aeration systems are being more closely evaluated due to the emphasis on reducing aeration energy requirement. A whole Decision System on aeration blower options includes considerations for lower pressure drop such as claimed with the Egger  Iris control valve. Liquid applications start with the lift stations and companies such as DeZurik  and extend through tertiary treatment and effluent reuse. The coverage includes a new butterfly valve design by Asahi/America.

Media and Valves (3 pages)

Thirteen magazines had pre-show issues and then distributed them from their stands. Struvite problems were selected as a way to show how the media was reporting valve solutions for a specific problem. Struvite is a major problem. Solutions include glass lined plug valves (Val-Matic) and motorized pinch valves (Onyx).

The magazines combine feature articles and product news releases as part of the valve coverage. The online coverage includes “sneak previews” that are supplied as email alerts.  More of the feature articles are now available online.  Systematic organization of this data provides a trove treasure of insights.

Determining Competitor Market Shares and Strategy (2 pages)

In addition to tracking the exhibition participation of competitors it is very valuable to track the advertising activity.  Details on each advertisement in the current issue of  a number of publications are shown.

Steel Industry Valve Purchases Will Exceed $1.7 billion this Year ( 2 pages)

A few steel companies purchase most of the valves used in this industry.  Arcelor spends $80 million per year on valves. Four other manufacturers spend $40 million or more. Arcelor Mittal has centralized valve purchasing and makes decisions based on lowest total cost of ownership.  They have 70,000 direct suppliers and have purchases of over $50 billion.  So valves, parts, and service comprise 0.16% of total purchases.

The full October Valve Market update can be viewed at October Update

Details on the valve report are shown at N028 Industrial Valves: World Market

October Pump Update has Insights on Markets, Competitors and Exhibitions

The market outlook for the industrial pump industry is ever changing. The market plan and the supporting forecasts should be current.  N019 Pumps World Market  provides continuing adjustment of 50,000 forecasts.  There are also monthly updates such as the one for October 2018.  Here is a summary of that update and a link to the full text.

2019 Chemical Industry Pump Purchases

The $3.7 billion market for pumps in the chemical industry is segmented by pump type but also by pumps vs repairs and service.  The segmentation of the new pump market by greenfield vs replacement is important due to the difference in marketing approach required.  It is now possible to forecast pump purchases for the major purchasers.  This analysis shows that three companies spend more than $100 million/yr for pumps, ten companies spend more than $50 million per year and twenty chemical companies spend more than $35 million/yr.  Specific purchases by application are also possible as demonstrated by using chlorine production at various plants as a basis for predicting  PFA lined and exotic alloy pumps.  The fact that 50 percent of the total cost of pump ownership is energy makes the opportunity for smart pumps very large.

Pumps at WEFTEC

There were 40 sludge, 32 submersible, 20 grinder, and 24 vertical pump exhibitors at WEFTEC.  Here are some stand highlights.

Media and Pumps at WEFTEC

Thirteen magazines had pre-show issues and then distributed them from their stands. Struvite problems were selected as a way to show how the media was reporting pump solutions for a specific problem. 

The magazines combine feature articles and product news releases as part of the pump coverage. The online emails include “sneak previews” which are supplied as alerts.  More of the feature articles are now available online.  Systematic organization of this data provides a treasure trove of insights on pump developments.

Determining Pump Competitor Market Shares and Strategy (2 pages)

In addition to tracking the exhibition participation of competitors it is very valuable to track the advertising activity.  Details on advertising in horizontal e.g. pump publications is useful in determining overall market share.  Insights on market share in specific industries is found in the industry publications.  Details on each pump advertisement in the current issue of a number of  vertical (industry) publications are shown.

The full October Pump Market Update can be viewed at October Update

Details on the pump report are shown at N019 Pumps World Market