October 2015 - RO, UF, MF Insights 56

Utility E Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal Plants on a Weekly Basis

Many of the new coal plants in planning or early construction are in Asia. Here are headlines from the Utility E-Alert last week:

· Three International Companies submit Tender for Rampal Coal-fired Power Project

· Carbon Offsets Plan could clear the way for Coal-fired Power Plants in British Columbia

· Valmet to supply FGD and Denitrification Installation for CIECH Soda Polska SA

· MET awarded Contract for ESP upgrade for a Coal-fired Utility Boiler in Caribbean

· Environmental Clearance granted for imported Coal for 1,980 MW Coal-fired Ghatampur Power Station in Uttar Pradesh, India

· Proposed Shivee-Ovoo Coal-fired Power Plant at Shivee Ovoo Coal Mine in Mongolia

· China Datang planning Two-Unit Ultra-Supercritical Coal-fired Power Plant in Anhui Province

· Shenhua Group planning 2,000 MW Ultra-Supercritical Coal-fired Power Station for Hefei, China

· Two additional Subcritical Coal-fired Units planned for Huaibei Guo'an Power Station

· Daihai-3 1,200 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

· Phase V of Expansion of Coal-fired Tuoketuo Power Station planned by Datang

· China Datang proposing 2,000 MW Coal-fired Power Plant for Datang Zhunge’er Al-Si-Ti

· Emerson wins Order from NTPC for Automation Technologies for Two 800 MW Supercritical Units

· Indonesia is behind other Asian Countries relative to NO_x and SO_x reduction

We are also tracking air pollution projects such as FGD projects by Doosan in Vietnam and new regulations in the U.S.

The following projects each will result in millions of dollars of orders for flow control and treatment products. Each project has been rated. The opportunity size is rated from 1-10 with 1 being small and 10 being very large. The timing for flow and treatment orders has been provided by year e.g., T 16 = timing of order is 2016.

Project Title

Application

Location

Opportunity Size/Order Date

Egypt plans $300 Million Refinery Expansion in Gasoline using UOP Technology

Refinery

Egypt

T16

Aquatech awarded Contract to Supply Thermal Desalination System for Orpic's Sohar Refinery

Refinery

Oman

T15

Amec Foster Wheeler to work on Vietnam’s Dung Quat Refinery Expansion

Refinery

Vietnam

T16

Mega-project Expansion of Petroperu’s Talara Refinery

Refinery

Peru

T15

New $161 Million South African Crude Blending Terminal to Start-up in 2017

Oil & gas

South Africa

T15

Jacobs receives EPCM Contract for Expansion of ExxonMobil’s Beaumont, TX Refinery

Refinery

Texas

T165

Technip, EGPC and ASORC Agreement for the Assiut Refinery

Refinery

Assiut

T16

KNPC awards Tecnicas Reunidas an Engineering Contract for Al/Zour Refinery

Refinery

Middle East

T17

CB&I awarded Equipment for Afipsky Oil Refinery in Russia

Refinery

Russia

T16

Technip, SACE and Midor Agreement for the Alexandria Refinery

Refinery

Egypt

T 17

CB&I awarded $100 Million Contract for Louisiana Refinery

Refinery

Louisiana

T16

Kuwait embarks $10 Billion upgrade of 2 Refineries

Refinery

Kuwait

T 17

Petronas selects Axens Technologies for Malaysia’s RAPID Project

Oil and gas

Malaysia

T16

Lloyds Energy awards KBR Eurasian FLNG Feed Contract

LNG

T17

Wood Group awarded FEED Contract from Woodside

LNG

Australia

T16

Keppel contracts 3^rd Floating Liquefaction Facility Conversion worth $684 Million

LNG

T16

Sempra Energy Unit awarded $108 Million Natural Gas Pipeline Contract in Mexico

Gas pipeline

Mexico

T15

Each headline is followed by a short article providing the basic details of each project. These details provide sales management with decision making tools without burdening them with details which are best left to the local sales people.

Forecasting of Products for Individual States and Individual End Users within the U.S.

The standard McIlvaine market reports divide the world in 80 regions. The U.S. market is approximately one quarter of the total. The top 10 countries account for half the total. The remaining 70 countries and sub regions each average just 0.7 percent of the total. If one divides the U.S. into nine regions, the average region is 2.8 percent or four times as large as the average of the 70 countries. Some States such as California have as much as 10 percent of the National market which converts to 2.5 percent of the world market. So a State such as California ranks among the top 20 if compared to other countries. It, therefore, makes sense to forecast the individual State markets for important products. Purchasers of the McIlvaine multi-client market reports can receive this additional revenue forecast on an electronic spreadsheet. The level of detail is shown below:

	Alabama - Specific Product XX Revenues 2019 ($ Millions)
Industry Segment	XX Product Sales $ millions	% of U.S.	Basis for Forecast	Criterion for Large User	No. of Large Purchasers
Food	xxx	xx	Production	More than 500 employees	xxxx
Wastewater	xxx	xx	MGD	15 MGD	xxx
Coal Fired Power	xxx	xx	MW	500 MW	xx
Nuclear Power	xxx	xx	MW	1000 MW	x
Refinery	xxx	xx		Bbl/day	All 130
Pharmaceutical	xxx	xx	production	More than 500 employees	xxxx
All industries included in basic market report will be included
Total For State of Alabama
Total for South East (one of 9 regions for the U.S.)

A relatively small number of companies purchase the majority of any product. McIlvaine is identifying these companies individually. The State forecast provides the useful total of large users in each industry segment. This forecast can be supplemented with details on each large user.

For some products it may make sense to forecast revenues for sub categories e.g. splitting iron and coal from general mining or split among the various food categories such as:

For more information on State Revenue forecasts contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112.

Why international suppliers should focus on the top 200 prospects (Arcelor Mittal example)

Many companies recognize the importance of large customers and have assigned personnel and resources to them. By providing precise forecasting and organized information on large customers, this major opportunity can be maximized. McIlvaine achieves this with the Detailed Forecasting, Large Project Tracking Program. The important parameters are:

· International suppliers have the best opportunity selling to large international customers.

· Large customer are willing to pay higher prices for higher quality equipment and services and are willing to expend the effort to make a total cost of ownership evaluation.

· Precise forecasting by product, company and project coupled with timely information will provide the supplier with the tools he needs.

Arcelor Mittal is one of the top 200 flow control and treatment purchasers. Arcelor Mittal produces 98 million tons of steel per year at 194 sites. It produces twice as much as the nearest competitor or 6 percent of the 1.6 billion tons of steel produced last year. It is also one the largest mining companies with both iron ore and coal mining capacity. The company has production sites around the globe making it one of the top 200 purchasers of flow control and treatment equipment. Last year it purchased 1.3 percent of the fabric filters and bags. It is a major valve purchaser with some plants operating more than 50,000 valves.

The company has adopted a global procurement program based on total cost of ownership. This program launched in 2007 places emphasis on life cycle cost and not initial price. It seeks long term relationships pooling knowledge and deploying specialized technical knowledge. This means that companies with better products have the opportunity to charge the prices commensurate with product value. They also have an opportunity to provide global service to help ensure the lowest cost of ownership.

Air Programs: The company is focused on reduction of dust, NO_x and SO₂. The capital investment in steel plant air pollution control projects in 2014 was $180 million. Dust emissions were 621 grams per ton of steel produced which is down 24% percent of the 2010 level. NO_x emissions fell 4 percent in 2014 to 1.1 kg/ton of steel and SO_x emissions decreased 3 percent.

Dust emissions from mining operations fell 6 percent to 5.3 million tons in 2014 while NO_x fell 3 percent and SO_x 26 percent (mainly due to a fuel change).

In 2014 ArcelorMittal R&D division worked on 13 air emission projects to improve dedusting systems and also processes.

Water Programs: The steel plants use large quantities of water for cooling and are located adjacent to lakes or rivers. Of 134 steel sites, 20 are located in regions which are experiencing water stress or scarcity. As a result, the Global R&D group is focused on water reuse and zero liquid discharge. The water treatment laboratory in Asturias, Spain is investigating green technologies to minimize pollutants.

Water at the mines needs to be treated before discharge. Water is also used for dust suppression, transporting tailings and concentrating ores. Some mines such as El Volcan in Mexico use special thickeners to avoid the use of tailing ponds.

The Indiana Harbor Works has installed a zero liquid discharge system (ZLD). The Newcastle, S.A. site has just commissioned a $40 million facility to treat wastewater. ZLD is already being accomplished at Saldanha and Vanderbijlpark. Two mine water treatment plants are in design and construction in Kazakhstan. A major water reduction program has been underway in Romania.

Several McIlvaine project tracking systems cover the large ArcelorMittal projects around the world.

Location	Timing	Project Description
Aviles/Gijon Spain	2016-2019	Reconstruction of two of 45 coke oven batteries with collection and scrubbing system.
Ghent, Belgium	2016-2017	$100 million bio ethanol plant using CO gas from steel with eventual capacity of 47,000 tons of ethanol/yr.
Germany	2016	Minor projects in Bremen, Duisburg, Brandenburg and Hamburg including galvanizing lines and new pre heat furnace.
Bosnia -Herzegovina	2015- 2016	New dust filters for BOF furnace with mid 2016 completion date. New filters for sinter plant are already installed. Sinter machine #4 precip internals also replaced.
Calvert Alabama	2015- 2016	$6.7 million for coating line with pumps and $40 million for slab yard expansion.
Ostrava Czech Republic	2014-2016	Valmet is supplying new CFB coal-fired boiler to replace old existing coal-fired boilers. Fabric filters will be used for dust capture.
Ostrava Czech Republic	2014-2016	ZVVZ-Enven Engineering is supplying $25 million DeSO_x project and CKD Phraha is supplying a $50 million DeNO_x system.
Hunan Valin China	2014-2017	New $832 million automotive steel plant.
Acindor Argentina	2013- 2017	400,000 ton/yr. rolling mill was initiated in 2013 with expectation of a two year completion date. Five other production lines at the site produce 1.7 million tons/yr.
Dunkirk France	2013-2015	New $110 million revamp of blast furnace #2 to be completed this year.

There are links to air and water permits with considerable detail on each emitting source:

· Arcelor Monessen coke plant Air permit from 2014-2019 covering coke oven pushing and quenching the desulfurization plant, the coke pushing baghouse and benzene NESHAPS control system but an environmental group PennEnvironment is suing the plant for emitting excess soot, acidic gases and noxious odors since the decades-old facility went back into operation in April 2004.

· Minorca Mine Virginia City Minnesota air permit with requirements for fabric filters and scrubbers used in the concentrating and pelletizing of 9 million tons/yr. of taconite ore to manufacture 3 million tons/yr. of pellets.

· Weirton West Virginia 3 small oil- and gas-fired boilers air permit expires in 2016. A 2012 Title V permit expiring in 2017 covers the reheat furnaces, hot strip mill pickling lines and HCl regeneration. An NPDES permit on the water side covers 18 mgd of cooling water discharge and 9 mgd of treated wastewater.

· Dofasco Ontario facility paid $390,000 penalty in 2014 for excess blast furnace emissions.

· ArcelorMittal Steel USA, Inc. - IN Harbor East, Permit No. IN0000094 - RENEWAL covers iron & steel, rolling mill operations and finishing operations with additional support operations: power generation, wastewater treatment with discharge to the turning base and ship canal. Several storm water outfalls which have the potential to discharge to these waters are also covered by this permit.

Pumps: Hydro descaling pumps are used at the Indiana plant. Weir received an order for $2.8 million for Warman slurry pumps for tailings transfer at Krivoy, Ukraine.

Sedimentation/Centrifugation: Dawco installed a 43m diameter thickener, a 25m diameter water tank, a pump house building and a piperack that connects to the concentrator sector of the Mount Wright Iron Mining Complex in Fermont, Québec.

Monitoring: CiDRA SONARtrac® Process Monitoring Technology is used for product transfer measurement on a 27 km hydrotransport slurry pipeline in Mexico that runs from nearby mines to steel plant in Lázaro Cárdenas City, Michoacán. A high pressure pump injects the slurry into the steel pipeline for the 27 km transit to the pelletizer plant.

Valves: ArcelorMittal Tubarão (formerly CST-Arcelor) Brazil, had Life Cycle contracts with Metso for all automated control, manual and safety valves throughout the ArcelorMittal Tubarão’s plant in Serra City. The total is almost 40,000 valves and included over 700 control valves.

In 2015, ArcelorMittal Tubarão, awarded SGS a four-year contract for the maintenance of security and control valves. A specialist team of 30 experts will detect the type of maintenance required for each valve. Valves will then be removed, opened, serviced and reinstalled. If major repairs are required, the valve will be taken to the dedicated SGS workshop in the city of Serra.

Electronics and generic pharmaceutical activity in Asia continues to fuel cleanroom growth. McIlvaine tracks the major projects in 80A World Cleanroom Projects.

While the largest number of new cleanrooms are small, the investment per room is low. As a result, a relatively few large cleanroom projects account for 50 percent of the filters, fans, HVAC, walls, benches and other hardware. The large rooms also contain more high purity space. An ISO Class 1 room builder would likely spend 10 times as much per square foot for filters as would an ISO Class 8 room builder.

For management it is very valuable and feasible to track the large room activity and thus pursue a large portion of the market directly. The large room projects slated for start-up in 2016 provide an example.

Sixteen large cleanroom projects are slated for the U.S. A solar cell project will startup in Brazil. Nine pharmaceutical and biotech cleanrooms will be completed in France, Germany, Iceland, Switzerland and the UK. The rest of the projects are in Asia and are listed below

Location	City	Project Title	SIC Description	Product
China	Kunshan	Tunghsu / KSGT	Flat Panel Displays	Panel Filters
China	Shanghai	Zhangjiang Biotech & Pharmaceutical Base Development Company (ZJ Base)	Pharmaceuticals	Biopharmaceuticals
China	Shanghai	Bayer AG-2		Plastics and High Tech Materials
China	Suzhou, Jiangsu and Chungli, Taiwan	TTY Biopharm/TOT Biopharm	Pharmaceuticals	Pharmaceuticals
India	Bengaluru	Intel	Electronic Components	Computer Innovations
India	Maharashtra / Taloja, Pune	Foxconn	Electronic Components	Electronics
India	Orissa	Bharat Biotech International (BBIL)	Biotechnology	Biotechnology
Japan	Ishikawa Prefecture	Innovation Network (INCJ) / JOLED	Flat Panel Displays	Display Panels/Oled Research
Korea	Incheon Free Economic Zone, Seoul	Amkor Technology-4	Research & Development Laboratories	R&D Of Semiconductor And Electronics Packaging And Testing
Singapore	Tuas Biomedical Park	AbbVie	Pharmaceuticals	Pharmaceuticals And Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
Taiwan	Taipei City, Nangang District	Academia Sinica	Biotechnology	Biotechnology
Thailand		ROHM	Electronic Components	Power Devices
Thailand	Rayong	Trina Solar	Solar Cell-Modules	Solar Cells
Vietnam	Bac Ninh	Samsung Display (subsidiary of Samsung Electronics)	Flat Panel Displays	Display Modules
Vietnam	Hanoi	Spire / Government of Vietnam	Solar Cell-Modules	Photovoltaic Modules
Vietnam	Ho Chi Minh City	Samsung Electronics	Electronic Components	"Smart" Products

Suppliers are pursuing projects totaling $100 billion for new coal-fired and biomass boilers slated to start up in 2017. These projects are continually tracked in World Power Generation Projects. The combustors, steam turbines and some of the other long delivery items have already been ordered but decisions on dampers, pumps, valves, nozzles, filters and controls are now being made.

Five of the projects are in Africa, nine are in Europe, two are in South America but the remainder are in Asia. China has the largest number. Five of the projects will use biomass as the primary fuel. Four of these are in Europe and one in India. The 30 non-Chinese Asian projects are shown below:

Fuel	Project Name	Total Size (MW)
Biomass	Vemagiri expansion-GMR, India	768
Coal	ACB India Chhattisgarh power plant Kasaipalli, India	900
Coal	Barethi power plant-National Thermal Power Corp., India	3960
Coal	Chhabra 5,6 power plant-Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam, India	1320
Coal	Chipoka power plant-Intra Energy Corp., Malawi	120
Coal	Enugu-Minaj Holdings Ltd. power project, Nigeria	1000
Coal	Exxaro/GDF Suez power plant, South Africa	600
Coal	Gadarwara supercritical power plant -NTPC, India	1600
Coal	Genting Ltd power Project in Banten province, Indonesia	660
Coal	Godda power project-Jindal Steel and Power, India	1320
Coal	Jambi province power plant-EGAT/ Intermining and Energy, Thailand	500
Coal	Long Phu 1 supercritical power plant-PetroVietnam, Vietnam	1200
Coal	Maitum (Kamanga) (Alcantara) CFB power plant-Sarangani Energy, Philippines	210
Coal	Mangrol power plant-Gujarat Industries Power Co., India	600
Coal	Manjung 4 supercritical expansion-Tenaga Nasional Bhd., Malaysia	1000
Coal	Manuguru power plant-Telangana State Power Generation, India	1080
Coal	Meja supercritical power plant-NTPC, India	1320
Coal	Mong Duong 2-AES, Vietnam	1200
Coal	Mota Layja village power plant-Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services, India	4000
Coal	Nabinagar supercritical power plant-NTPC/Bihar State Electricity Board, India	1980
Coal	No. 304 Industrial Estate power plant-National Power Supply power project, Thailand	540
Coal	Pagbilao 3 CFB expansion-Aboitiz Power and TeaM Energy Philippines, Philippines	400
Coal	Pemalang supercritical power plant-PLN, Indonesia	2000
Coal	Qadirabad (Sahiwal district) power plant, Pakistan	1320
Coal	Sampur-Ceylon Electricity Board/National Thermal Power Corp., Sri Lanka	500
Coal	Sinboryeong ultrasupercritical power plant 1,2 -Korea Midland Power, South Korea	2000
Coal	Solapur supercritical power plant-NTPC, India	1320
Coal	Subic Bay power plant-Kepco Philippines Corp., Philippines	300
Coal	Sundergarh supercritical power plant-Coal India/Mahanadi Coalfields, India	1600
Coal	Talin 2 supercritical rebuild-TaiPower, Taiwan	800
Coal	Termonorte power project-Produccionj de Energia, Colombia	88
Coal	Tuzla 7-Elektroprivreda BiH (EPBiH), Bosnia	450
Coal	Van Phong 1 economic zone power plant-Sumitomo/Bach Dang-Hanoi Co., Vietnam	1320
Coal	Vodarevu UMPP, India	4000

Over 100 gas turbine projects totaling more than 68,000 MW are scheduled for startup in 2016. These projects are all tracked in Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Supplier Program. 15,000 MW are slated for the U.S. while 53,000 MW are located in other countries. Most of the U.S. plants will include a steam cycle. All will require emission control systems with selective catalytic reduction technology. Some will incorporate zero liquid discharge for the cooling and wastewater.

Fuel	Total Size (MW)
Gas	14980

Fuel	Project Name	Size
Gas	Alpine GT - Wolverine Power, MI	400
Gas	Brownsville CCGT - Tenaska/Brownsville Public Utilities, TX	800
Gas	Brunswick County CCGT - Dominion Virginia Power, VA	1358
Gas	Carty CCGT - Portland General Electric, OR	440
Gas	FGE Texas I CCGT - FGE, TX	726
Gas	George M Sullivan CCGT expansion - Anchorage Municipal Light & Power, AK	120
Gas	Glenarm CCGT expansion - Pasadena Water & Power, CA	71
Gas	Good Spring 1 CCGT - EmberClear, PA	300
Gas	La Luz Energy Center GT - Public Service of New Mexico, NM	88
Gas	La Paloma CCGT - Coronado Ventures, TX	700
Gas	Liberty CCGT - Panda Power Funds, PA	825
Gas	Montana Power Station Unit 3 GT - El Paso Electric, TX	88
Gas	Newark Energy Center CCGT - EIF, NJ	625
Gas	Oakley CCGT - PG&E, CA	586
Gas	Patriot CCGT - Panda Power Funds, PA	829
Gas	Pecan Creek Energy Center GT - NTE Energy, TX	270
Gas	Pondera King CCGT - Competitive Power Ventures, TX	900
Gas	Port Everglades Energy Center CCGT - Florida Power & Light, FL	1277
Gas	Rayonier Fibers CHP GT - Chesapeake Utilities, FL	20
Gas	Riverton 12 combined cycle conversion - Empire District Electric Co., KS	100
Gas	Roans Prairie Peakers - Tenaska, TX	694
Gas	Sand Hill 5B CCGT expansion - Austin Energy, TX	222
Gas	St. Joseph Energy Center CCGT - Development Partners, IN	1350
Gas	Temple II CCGT - Panda Power Funds, TX	791
Gas	Toquop CCGT - EWP Renewable, NV	700
Gas	Woodbridge Energy Center CCGT - CPV, NJ	700

The U.S. total could increase if one or more of the Eagle Pines turbines becomes operational. The 3,400 MW Eagle Pines Project will include three natural gas-fired combined cycle power blocks. Each block will consist of two 321 MW Alstom GT36 combustion turbines, two heat recovery steam generators and one 502 MW steam turbine. The combustion turbines may employ evaporative cooling and/or inlet high fogging for power enhancement. Each heat recovery steam generator is equipped with natural gas-fired duct burners. The construction of the first power block is planned to begin in the spring of 2016. Construction of the subsequent two power blocks are planned to begin fall of 2016 and winter of 2017.

3111	Animal Food Manufacturing
3112	Grain and Oilseed Milling
3113	Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing
3114	Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Manufacturing
3115	Dairy Product Manufacturing
3116	Animal Slaughtering and Processing
3117	Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging
3118	Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing
3119	Other Food Manufacturing
3121	Beverage Manufacturing