Power Update
Is the Gas Shortage Short Term?
The future of coal in the U.S. depends on the price and availability of natural gas. There is considerable controversy on this subject. One possibility is that gas will cease to be an option for baseload power generation. The other possibility is the one included in the 2004 EIA forecast which shows gas being the fuel of choice for new power plants built after 2010. However, this is the same group that failed to predict the present high prices.
Analysis
United States
EIA provided its annual forecast in early 2004 with projections through 2025 for the U.S. We are providing the details of these forecasts in this section. However, the McIlvaine forecasts (as reflected under “Forecast” differ somewhat from the EIA. McIlvaine believes that substantial additions to coal-fired plants will be made in the 2005-2010 period. EIA does not reflect these additions even though a number of plants are actually in construction.
World Forecast
FIGURE : Coal-Fired Plant Capacity (MW)
| COUNTRY | 2008 | 2009 |
2010 |
2011 | 2012 | ||||||||||||
| Net Additions | In Operation | Retirements | New Construction | Net Additions | In Operation | Retirements | New Construction | Net Additions | In Operation | Retirements | New Constr. | Net Additions | In Operation | Retirements | New Constr. | Net Additions | |
| United States | 300 | 330,240 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 332,740 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 337,740 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 342,740 | 6,000 | 6,000 | ||||
| Canada | 1,350 | 21,510 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 22,510 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 23,510 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 24,510 | 1,000 | 1,000 | ||||
| Mexico | 0 | 4,050 | 0 | 4,050 | 500 | 500 | 4,550 | 500 | 500 | 5,050 | 500 | 500 | |||||
Revenues
INDUSTRY AND SUBJECT TOTALS
| World Region | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| Africa |
11.07 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
4.75 |
1.06 |
1.06 |
2.12 |
53.86 |
| CIS |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.12 |
2.12 |
2.12 |
13.74 |
0.00 |
| East Asia |
146.95 |
187.45 |
267.45 |
294.55 |
272.62 |
256.73 |
246.13 |
225.01 |
| Eastern Europe |
18.59 |
27.23 |
17.53 |
12.68 |
13.74 |
13.74 |
27.48 |
12.68 |