THERMAL CATALYTIC
UPDATE
December 2008
McIlvaine Company
Many projects are detailed in monthly updates under Industry Analysis in this Report’s Chapters. Click on the links below to view information on these projects.
MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANTS
FORECAST
As of December 10, 2008 economic forecasts for 2009 are down considerably from a month earlier. Merrill Lynch forecasts global growth of 1.3 percent in 2009, down from 3.2 percent in 2008, rising to 3.1 percent in 2010. Even this level of growth would be half a percentage point lower than the average of the past four years. In the report "2009: The Global Macro Year
1) Developing world economies to be less vulnerable to the downturn than developed world economies.
2) Governments likely to intervene via further monetary and fiscal easing.
3) Limits and side effects of stimulus packages to emerge.
4) Growth to rebound in the first half of 2009 before petering out.
With demand vanishing across all key oil consuming regions, Merrill Lynch is lowering its crude oil price forecast to US$50 per barrel for 2009. With natural gas likely to be less than 1/6 of oil, the natural base price will be below $8/MMBtu and possibly as low as $6/MMBtu.
This is the most uncertain period for the thermal catalytic market in the last 30 years. We are, therefore, going to be providing monthly or bi monthly adjustments of our revenue forecasts.
Here are our original growth forecasts by industry for thermal catalytic market. In subsequent columns we show the new growth percentages for 2009 and 2010 which we will be incorporating into the report.
The new plus consumables rate applies to the thermal catalytic equipment.
There are no separate consumables forecasts because parts are included with the catalysts.
MARKET GROWTH RATES
|
Industry |
Original Growth Rate |
New Growth 2009: |
New Growth 2010: |
New Growth |
New Growth: 2010 Consumables Only |
|
Bioclean |
6.5 |
|
|
3 |
4 |
|
Chemical |
4 |
-2 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
|
Comm. Point of entry |
8 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Comm. Point of use |
8 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
|
Desalination |
10 |
+5 |
5 |
+5 |
5 |
|
Disk drive |
17 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
|
Electronics |
10 |
-5 |
3 |
-2 |
3 |
|
Flat panel |
18 |
-10 |
3 |
-2 |
2 |
|
Flood |
3 |
+3 |
3 |
+3 |
3 |
|
Healthcare |
8 |
|
|
7 |
8 |
|
Hospital |
9 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
Medical device |
8 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Metals |
3 |
-7 |
4 |
-2 |
3 |
|
Mining |
5 |
-7 |
3 |
-3 |
2 |
|
Oil and Gas |
4 |
+3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
Other |
4 |
-3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
Pharma |
7 |
+1 |
5 |
+1 |
6 |
|
Power |
9 |
+4 |
6 |
+5 |
5 |
|
Pulp and Paper |
5 |
-3 |
2 |
-1 |
2 |
|
Refineries |
4 |
+1 |
1 |
+1 |
3 |
|
Res. Point of entry |
8 |
-6 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Res. Point of use |
8 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
Res./comm. |
9 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
Semiconductor |
7 |
-8 |
2 |
-2 |
2 |
|
Stone |
7 |
-3 |
2 |
-1 |
4 |
|
Wastewater – municipal |
7 |
+4 |
6 |
+4 |
4 |
|
Water – municipal |
3 |
+3 |
3 |
+3 |
3 |
These are worldwide changes. In general the growth is higher in developing countries and is lower in the developed countries. The specific country growth rates are all changing and are shown in the “Industry Analysis” segments of each application chapter. They are displayed as percentages of the world based on the year 2000.
McIlvaine Company,
Northfield, IL 60093-2743
Tel: 847-784-0012; Fax: 847-784-0061;
E-mail: editor@mcilvainecompany.com;
Web site: www.mcilvainecompany.com