February 2022, No.556

MARKETS

Russian Invasion is Already Impacting AWE Markets

The price of oil rising to $100/barrel is in part due to the sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Over the last few months the U.S has become the leading gas supplier to Europe. The worry is that the Russian aggression is not a minor or temporary situation but a major ebb in the flow of human history.

Many in the U.S. want to ignore the Ukrainian crisis. But others believe that at the heart lies a fundamental question about the nature of history and the nature of humanity: is change possible? Can humans change the way they behave, or does history repeat itself endlessly, with humans forever condemned to re-enact past tragedies without changing anything except the décor?

Ukraine has been a poster child for the benefits of democratic rule. If it falls there is no assurance that other Eastern European countries will not follow.

The movement in China toward greater authoritarianism and less autonomy for private companies has shaken many of the suppliers of air, water, and energy products. How comfortable does Thermo Fisher feel with China as a major air monitoring research center. What about all the AWE companies which are exporting to Asia from Chinese facilities?

Michael Norris, an analyst with Shanghai-based consultancy AgencyChina said . “We are going to be in a situation where the regulation and the slowdown in China’s economy happen side by side.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is coming along with increased trade and collaboration between Russia and China. It is a relatively minor factor in worldwide AWE product sales if Russia is no longer a market.  China with the world’s second largest economy is a major factor in the AWE market.

Free trade is clearly the most beneficial environment for a democratic world. But if autocracy is on the rise, then it is a different environment.

Energy Market

In 2021, a large share of Europe’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) originated in the United States, Qatar, and Russia. Combined, these three countries accounted for almost 70% of Europe’s total LNG imports. The United States became Europe’s largest source of LNG in 2021, accounting for 26% of all LNG imported by European Union member countries (EU-27) and the United Kingdom (UK), followed by Qatar with 24%, and Russia with 20%.

In January 2022, the United States supplied more than half of all LNG imports into Europe for the month. Exports of LNG from the United States to EU-27 and the UK increased from 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in November 2021 to 6.5 Bcf/d in January 2022—the most LNG shipped to Europe from the United States on a monthly basis to date.

 Supply challenges in the European market have led to rising regional prices for natural gas. The natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands—the most liquid virtual natural gas hub in Europe—has been trading at all-time high levels. The TTF price averaged $28.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from September 2021 through the first week of February 2022. The TTF price peaked at $60.20/MMBtu on December 21, 2021. Prior to this sharp price increase, the TTF price had averaged $9.28/MMBtu from January through August 2021, $3.28/MMBtu during 2020, $4.45/MMBtu during 2019, and $6.45/MMBtu from 2014 through 2018.

Oil Prices

 There are 5.6 mmbtu/barrel. So oil is pushing $100/ barrel.  Prices are well above the break even point for shale extraction in the U.S. However expansion is not taking place for three reasons:

·         Shareholders are emphasizing dividends and not expansion.

·         The most profitable wells may have already been drilled.

·         Costs of production  are increasing due to inflation and shortages.

One of the supply problems in Europe is regasification terminal capacity. Germany has none.

Renewables

Europe is already pursuing wind and solar. Drax in the UK is a leader in biomass combustion.  Extending the life of some coal plants about to be shut down and using biomass co-firing is one option deserving serious consideration.

Analysis of the world air, water, and energy market is provided in

http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/n064-air-gas-water-fluid-treatment-and-control-world-market

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

Air Pollution Control is Checkers, but Climate Change is Chess

 The fight against air pollution has been greatly hampered by an opponent making unanticipated moves. Climate change is an opponent with the capability of making so many unanticipated moves, that is chess and not checkers.

When cigarette advertisements extolled the health benefits, air pollution control focused on limiting the emission of large particles. The harm from SO2 was perceived as forest destruction and damage to buildings.

The move by the opponent was to react the SO2 with ambient ammonia and other chemicals in the atmosphere which created fine particulate. These particles, the size of cigarette smoke, are  now arguably the largest pollutant killer of people.

The challenge in air pollution control has been to use the niche experts in many fields to develop a winning strategy. With climate change the number of needed niche experts is many times more. 

Air pollution experts were not wrong but those who came to the conclusions were. When the global warming game expanded to climate change and the potential that a 50 ppm increase in CO2 can cause both drought and floods, it is definitely chess and not checkers.

If fighting climate change is a chess game then the strategy has to deal with the potential for the opponent to pursue a number of unanticipated  tactics. The strategy needs to be flexible to handle whatever tactic is employed by the opponent. It also needs to be one based on winning the game even if pawns are sacrificed along the way.

Solar and wind are obvious tactics. If long term storage becomes economic, they can be the queen and bishops in the game. However, there are many citizens of the world without electricity. Fossil fired power is the quickest way to provide them with what they need.

The most flexible approach is one where carbon negative technologies are also employed. This eliminates a tipping point.

Carbon negative approaches involve biomass. The trees or plants absorb CO2 as they grow. If they are then combusted and the CO2 sequestered the CO2 in the atmosphere is reduced. This technology is labeled Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS)

Solar and wind are carbon neutral. So is biomass combustion. Sequestration can be a subsequent move. Solid fuel boilers and gas turbines can be utilized. The problem is that if you tear down existing fossil plants you eliminate possibly one of the best moves.

With a fossil fired boiler you can incrementally replace coal with biomass. With a gas turbine you can incrementally increase the percentage of hydrogen burned. This can come from biomass gasification. You can also burn syngas from biomass.

Very little capital cost is required to switch a coal fired boiler to burn biomass. Little time is required for the conversion. A number of gas turbines are hydrogen ready.

The UK has embraced this flexible strategy. The 4000 MW Drax station now is carbon neutral with biomass combustion. By 2030 this one station will  sequester CO2 and meet the national carbon negative goals.

More new coal fired plants are being built in Asia than ever existed in the U.S. and Europe. At nominal increased cost these plants could be made biomass ready from inception. They can switch gradually to 100 percent biomass combustion. Eventually they can capture and sequester the CO2.

If all the world’s coal plants and gas turbines switched to BECCS, the CO2 content in the atmosphere would go down as rapidly as it rose.

This flexible game strategy will be able to deal with the surprises which are sure to come. To say that we knew nothing at the cigarette peak but now know everything would be very unwise.  The climate change opponent will inevitably surprise us.

We don’t want to be like Cheshire, Ohio which  benefited not only from SO2 reduction from the nearby power plant but also from a new NOx control system. The benefit was short lived since a catalytic reaction spewed sulfuric acid on the town and made it uninhabitable. Better NOx catalysts solved the problem but not before cities around the country experienced similar problems.

The McIlvaine Company tracks all the technology and projects in http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/42ei-utility-tracking-system

Market forecasts for all the air, water, and energy products and services required for net zero  are described under markets at www.mcilvainecompany.com

For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at 847 226 2391.

GAS TURBINES

Parker’s New Ancillary Spares Kits Simplify Gas Turbine Maintenance to Optimize Performance

The Gas Turbine Filtration Division of Parker Hannifin Corporation has released new ancillary spares kits for gas turbine filter house maintenance. The kits are designed to ensure customers can easily access the replacement parts needed to avoid unplanned downtime and maintain filter house performance over years of operation.

While timely filter replacement is essential to the protection of gas turbines, it is critical that all components are properly maintained to ensure continued turbine performance and reliability.

 Tailored to specific customer and site needs, the new kits provide a comprehensive set of spares to service the inlet house for a period of five years, or three filter replacement cycles. Their use helps prevent costly corrective maintenance and restricts perilous salt, water and contaminants from bypassing the filter and damaging turbine performance. The packs will update any obsolete parts and make sourcing and purchasing necessary spares easier than ever.

 “We have introduced these kits in response to a clear customer need to cover parts within the inlet filter house that, unlike filter elements, are not considered consumables,” said Alejandro Morales, sales manager, Gas Turbine Filtration Division. “They will make it much easier for customers to keep their gas turbines running smoothly. The relatively small investment ensures customers will have everything they need to maintain their inlet filter house and will extend the operating life of filtration units.”

 “Protecting gas turbines goes beyond just having filters in place. Operators need to ensure supporting equipment is also well maintained to avoid any filtration bypass or differential pressure increase that could lead to an unexpected turbine shutdown. These new kits will remove the pain of finding correct and current parts needed to maintain all aspects of gas turbine inlet filter houses. They are simple to order and will help ensure trouble-free operation and optimum turbine performance,” Morales added.

IRON AND STEEL

JSW Steel Orders Converter Melt Shop and Continuous Casters for New Steel Melt Shop from Primetals Technologies

Indian steelmaker JSW Vijayanagar Metallics Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of JSW Steel Ltd (JSW Steel), has placed an order with Primetals Technologies to supply equipment for its new Steel Melt Shop No. 4 in Vijayanagar, Toranagallu. The order includes two BOF(LD)-converters, two ladle furnaces, gas cleaning and dedusting systems, two slab casters as well as level 1 and level 2 automation systems.

The new melt shop has a design capacity of 5 million metric tons per year and will mainly produce high-quality carbon steel. It is part of a major project of JSW Steel to expand its JSW Steel Vijayanagar Works facility’s production capacity. Primetals Technologies will be responsible for engineering, supply of equipment, and advisory services for erection and commissioning. The two 350-ton-BOF(LD)-converters feature the maintenance free Vaicon Lamella suspension system, water cone and barrel air cooling and will be equipped with slag stoppers, including the thermographic automatic slag identification system SlagMon, quick exchange type oxygen blowing lances and the Lomas converter off-gas analyzing system.

A dry type of gas cleaning system will reduce dust content to 10 mg/Nm³ at the stack. A steam type heat recovery system will improve energy efficiency, the secondary dedusting system will provide low work zone and roof top emissions. The two 350-ton-ladle furnaces will be equipped with copper-plated electrode arms and the Melt Expert electrode control systems.

United States Steel Corporation Breaks Ground on the Most Technologically Advanced Steel Mill in North America

United States Steel Corporation broke ground in Osceola, Arkansas on the company’s next-generation highly sustainable and technologically advanced steel mill. The $3 billion steelmaking facility will be the most advanced in North America and largest private project in the history of Arkansas.

The new plant will be adjacent to U. S. Steel’s Big River Steel. Together, the two facilities will be known as Big River Steel Works. The new plant is expected to bring 900 plant jobs to the area, along with thousands of construction jobs.

The new optimized steel production facility is expected to feature two electric arc furnaces (EAFs) with 3 million tons per year of advanced steelmaking capability, a state-of-the-art endless casting and rolling line, and advanced finishing capabilities. This first use of endless casting and rolling technology in the United States brings significant energy, efficiency, and capability enhancements to the company’s operations.

Project completion and full operation is anticipated by 2024. Upon completion, this project will apply to become LEED® certified.

WASTE TO ENERGY

Valmet to Supply a Waste-to-Energy Boiler to Thang Long Energy Environment Joint Stock Company in Vietnam

Valmet has signed a contract to deliver a waste-to-energy (WtE) boiler fired with refuse-derived fuel (RDF) to Thang Long Energy Environment’s greenfield waste-to-energy plant in Bac Ninh province, Vietnam. A Valmet Flue Gas Cleaning system and a Valmet DNA Distributed Control System (DCS) are also included in the delivery. The investment aims to support a clean and green economy and protect Bac Ninh province’s environment through more sustainable energy production.

The order is included in Valmet’s orders received of the first quarter 2022. The value of an order of this type is around EUR 20–30 million.

This is Valmet’s first circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler delivery to the growing Southeast Asian waste-to-energy market. The installation work is scheduled to start in 2023, and the plant will commence commercial operation at the end of 2023.

Valmet’s delivery will consist of a Valmet Recyc Boiler using circulating fluidized bed technology. The CFB boiler will burn RDF mainly from municipal and partly from industrial waste to produce steam for a turbine generator. The electricity generated (10 MWe) will be supplied to Vietnam’s power distribution grid.

The Valmet Flue Gas Cleaning system will provide optimal environmental performance to meet the strictest emission limits. The advanced Valmet DNA Distributed Control System will cover all the control at the boiler plant.

The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor in this project is TTCL Vietnam Corporation Limited (TVC).

Thang Long Energy Environment Joint Stock Company was established in 2017. The company’s core business engages in waste treatment activities in Vietnam, particularly in municipal solid projects.

TTCL Vietnam Corporation Limited (TVC) is a subsidiary of TTCL Public Company Limited (TTCL), an EPC Contractor in Thailand. TVC has experience and expertise in integrated EPC of turnkey projects for industrial and process plants.

COMPANY NEWS

Micronics Engineered Filtration Group Announces Strategic Acquisition of National Filter Media (NFM)

The Micronics Engineered Filtration Group announced the acquisition of filtration industry leader, National Filter Media (“NFM”).

The strategic acquisition of National Filter Media significantly expands Micronics’ portfolio of engineered filtration solutions to better serve customers’ advanced filtration needs.

“I am excited to welcome NFM and FilterFab to the Micronics family of trusted wet and dry filtration brands! I am very much looking forward to working with our talented new NFM and FilterFab teammates as we bring our combined talents and capabilities to our valued global customers,” said Chris Cummins, President and CEO of the Micronics Engineered Filtration Group. Mr. Cummins will head up the newly combined company going forward.

“Together, we bring over 400 years of combined expertise to the marketplace. I am fully confident that we will offer our global customers an unparalleled combination of problem-solving along with filter media, advanced filtration equipment, filtration services, and aftermarket parts,” Mr. Cummins added.

With the addition of National Filter Media, The Micronics Engineered Filtration Group now combines strong, trusted wet and dry filtration brand names including Micronics, Southern Filter Media (“SFM”), C.P. Environmental (“CPE”), United Process Control (“UPC”), AeroPulse, National Filter Media (“NFM”), FilterFab, Midwesco Filter Resources (“Midwesco”), and Fabricated Filters.

Added filter media that the Micronics Engineered Filtration Group will now manufacture in-house with the addition of NFM include Belt Press Dewatering Belts, Pressure Leaf Filter Media, Horizontal Vacuum Belt Filter Media, Rotary Vacuum Drum Filter Media, Rotary Vacuum Belt Filter Media, Rotary Vacuum Disc Filter Media, and Vacuum Pan/Table Filter Media.

ENFORCEMENT ACTIONS

Lead Acid Battery Manufacturing Plants Emission Requirement Reviewed

This proposal presents the results of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) review of the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for Lead Acid Battery Manufacturing Plants and the technology review (TR) for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for Lead Acid Battery Manufacturing Area Sources as required under the Clean Air Act (CAA).

The EPA is proposing revised lead (Pb) emission limits for grid casting, paste mixing, and lead reclamation operations for both the area source NESHAP (for new and existing sources) and under a new NSPS subpart (for lead acid battery facilities that begin construction, reconstruction, or modification after February 23, 2022).

In addition, the EPA is proposing the following amendments for both the area source NESHAP (for new and existing sources) and under a new NSPS subpart (for lead acid battery facilities that begin construction, reconstruction or modification after February 23, 2022): Performance testing once every 5 years to demonstrate compliance; work practices to minimize emissions of fugitive lead dust; increased inspection frequency of fabric filters; bag leak detection systems for facilities above a certain size, clarification of activities that are considered to be lead reclamation activities electronic reporting of performance test results and semiannual compliance reports; and the removal of exemptions for periods of start-up, shut down, and malfunctions.

The EPA is also proposing a revision to the applicability provisions in the area source NESHAP such that facilities which make lead-bearing battery parts or process input material, including but not limited to grid casting facilities and lead oxide manufacturing facilities, will be subject to the area source NESHAP.

US Seeks to Reinstate Mercury Regulation on Coal-fired Power Plants

 The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed rescinding a May 2020 decision by the Trump administration that effectively ended the enforcement of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards on coal-fired power plants. In 2012 the EPA ruled the public health benefits of limiting pollution outweighed the cost to industry and it was therefore “appropriate and necessary” to enforce the standards. The EPA estimated enforcement of the rule would prevent up to 11,000 premature deaths a year. The EPA proposal will be open for 60 days of public comment with the likelihood it will be adopted later this year. The Sierra Club welcomed the announcement but called on the EPA to strengthen the rule.

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