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A coal-fired plant burning 25 percent biomass and providing CO₂ for fracking (see article above) or other enhanced oil recovery purposes would not only be carbon negative but other emissions would also be negligible. Zero liquid discharge eliminates any potential water contamination. It minimizes water consumption. In fact with superior heat exchange technology the hydrogen in the coal adds to the water totals. The flyash and the gypsum produced from coal fired power plants eliminate the need for mining operations which have air and water emissions.

There is a very good possibility that an insitu process will also produce hydrochloric acid and rare earths.

IIoT knowledge regarding coal-fired plant operations can reside in the U.S. It can be the basis of substantial revenues for U.S. companies in Asian and African countries. The initiatives taken by the Trump Administration to ease environmental rules for the purpose of stimulating the economy are having the opposite effect. No new coal-fired power plants are being planned. Large projects to reduce regional haze have been canceled. This impacts not only air pollution control companies but the construction industry as well. The U.S. was a leader in mercury reduction technology. Relaxation of mercury rules will insure that leadership resides in China.

Extension of rules relative to pond closures has the effect of slowing down zero liquid discharge technology improvement. The U.S. has been on the cutting edge of ultra-super critical coal fired boilers, coal gasification and other power technologies. Their use in the U.S. may be limited but coal will remain the most utilized power plant fuel around the world. There is more impact on U.S. GDP from sale of technologies and products than there is on the actual power generation. One reason is that the U.S. power requirements will be very small compared to ROW.

Jobs for blue collar workers will not be generated even if coal fired power was the choice in the U.S. IIoT and Remote O&M is eliminating operators from coal mines and power plants. However, U.S. instrumentation, process management software, and subject matter experts needed to operate these plants can be serving the world.

The U.S. has been the world leader in FGD technology ever since the world’s first commercial limestone scrubber was installed at Union Electric in 1968. For years the U.S. had most of the world’s FGD systems. Today it has less than 200,000 MW compared to nearly 1 million MW of FGD in China.

Classification	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Existing FGD	1,297,736	1,384,196	1,444,541	1,517,554	1,584,386	1,643,915	1,702,957.35
FGD Retirements	-1,000	-1,000	-1,000	-1,000	-1,000	-1,000	-1,000
New Construction - FGD	59,692	56,550	40,250	47,029	36,620	36,843	36,351
Retrofits	36,210	30,910	21,095	26,983	31,213	23,686	23,691
Total New FGD	95,902	87,460	61,345	74,012	67,833	60,529	60,042

The U.S. is fast losing FGD leadership but it does have strengths. The pumps, valves, instrumentation, software, and dewatering equipment made by U.S. companies is competitive world wide. There is untapped reservoirs of knowledge. The hydrochloric acid and rare earth production is an example. The Philadelphia Electric Eddystone installation was producing hydrochloric acid and rare earths feed stock even though the value was not recognized. The byproduct being sold was the sulfur. So all that is needed is to utilize feedstocks from a technology which already exists. DOE is digging up flyash and pulverizing it at great expense in its rare earth demonstration. Here is a plant which already has the flyash in the fine particle form but also has the hydrochloric acid for the leaching process.

Why is it that some of the largest U.S. and European-based air pollution control companies have failed while some of the smaller ones have thrived? We asked one smaller APC company why it is successful and were told that it is the ability to combine a range of services and technologies to meet the customer needs. Here are their secrets to success:

In the last decade this company has grown sales by more than 10 percent per year. Some of the public companies in the same business in Europe and the U.S. have shown large sales decreases. Part of this failure is just the reliance on the coal-fired boiler market. Part of it may also be failure to fully integrate the life cycle support activities. The potential for remote O&M was not realized. There was no aggressive aftermarket support staff. By contrast this high performing company has a staff of capable sales engineers to make sure customers know about and take advantage of the best repair part options.

This leads to questions about another path. Some air pollution related companies have opted only to sell components and eliminate the risks associated with system sales. However with remote monitoring and the potential for third parties to operate air pollution control systems the component companies may find their margins and revenues shrinking as the third party operators look for ways to reduce cost.

The various paths to profitability in the air pollution control industry are analyzed in 5AB Air Pollution Management.

Fabric Filter Market for Coal-fired Electric Generators is Growing Faster than the Industry

Coal-fired power plants around the world will increase expenditures for fabric filter systems, bags and third party maintenance services by more than seven percent per year. The total market will be $3 billion by 2020.

Fabric Filter Market 2020 - $ millions
	Dry Scrubber	Particulate Only	Total
Hardware and Construction	400	600	1000
Bags, Cages, other Repair Parts	250	400	650
IIoT and Remote O&M Potential	500	800	1300
Total – Advise, Design, Supply, Construct, Guide, Maintain	1150	1800	2950

There are a number of positive and negative impacts on future fabric filter related sales to coal fired generators around the world.

· The coal-fired boiler capacity in Europe and the U.S. will shrink but will be more than offset by new Asian capacity.

· New plants will continue to select precipitators for more new capacity than will choose fabric filters. However the share for fabric filters will slowly increase.

· Some existing plants with precipitators which are not meeting emission limits are installing bags within the existing precipitator shell.

· Dry scrubbing and Dry Sorbent Injection (DSI) are gaining market share although wet limestone FGD is still the dominant choice.

· Catalytic ceramic filters are not expected to gain much penetration by 2020 but will potentially be the first choice for power plants in later years.

· New technical developments are shaping the forecast and create substantial unknowns.

Fabric filters can produce consistently low particulate emission rates. They are not impacted by changes in the coal. Electrostatic precipitator performance is affected by coal variations. Where mercury regulations are stringent activated carbon injected ahead of the fabric filter can result in higher removal rates than injection ahead of a precipitator.

Dry scrubbing involves less capital expense than limestone wet scrubbing. Direct sorbent injection has very low capital expense other than the fabric filter. However, reagent costs are high. Where stringent regulations are forcing scrubber additions but boiler life is limited, dry methods are more cost effective.

The fabric filter cake provides final absorption in dry scrubbing and DSI systems. Presently the cleaning of filter bags is done to optimize particulate removal. There is significant potential to optimize acid gas removal as well as particulate with new cleaning technology. Ceramic filters with embedded catalyst in conjunction with DSI are the lowest cost approach to remove particulate, NO_x and acid gas. This is because only one vessel instead of three are needed. The approach has worked well with 3 meter bags on applications with relatively low air volumes. Longer bags are now being commercialized. This could lead to widespread use by coal-fired electric generators.

All the existing and proposed fabric filter installations on coal fired boilers are tracked in 42EI Utility Tracking System.

For the 3^rd quarter of current FY 2018-19, Thermax Group posted consolidated operating revenues of Rs. 1437 crore, up 28.6 percent as compared to Rs. 1117 crore in the corresponding quarter, last year, riding on a strong order carry forward. Group profit after tax at Rs. 75 crore (Rs. 58 crore), up 29 percent.

The profit considers Rs. 88 crore of exceptional item, pertaining to the impairment of goodwill related to the stepdown subsidiary, Thermax Denmark ApS and recognition of deferred tax assets of Rs. 94 crore relating to brought forward losses of its subsidiary, Thermax Babcock & Wilcox Energy Solutions Private Limited (TBWES).

As of December 31, 2018, Thermax Group had an order balance of Rs. 6475 crore (Rs. 5556 crore) up 16.5 percent. Order booking for the quarter, at the consolidated level, was marginally up at Rs. 1480 crore (Rs. 1413 crore) due to ongoing sluggishness in new investments in several sectors of the economy.

Subsequent to the acquisition of the remaining shares in TBWES on July 19, 2018, the Board of Directors have approved the transfer of Boiler & Heater (B&H) business of Thermax Limited to TBWES through slump sale, subject to the approval of shareholders. Consequently, the results of B&H business have been classified as discontinued operations in the standalone financial statements. However, this will not impact the consolidated group accounts.

For the continued operations, on a standalone basis, Thermax Limited posted an operating revenue of Rs. 847 crore for the quarter, compared to Rs. 658 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Profit after tax for the quarter was Rs. 26 crore, down 43.5 percent from last year’s Rs. 46 crore. The standalone revenue of Thermax Limited, including discontinued operations, stood at Rs. 1248 crore as compared to 981 crore and net profit after tax stood at Rs. 48 crore as compared to 63 crore in the same quarter last year.

The standalone profit of Thermax Limited for the current year is after considering exceptional items comprising impairment of investment of Rs. 126 crore in Thermax Netherlands B.V., Rs. 13 crore in First Energy Private Limited (FEPL) and an impairment reversal of Rs. 112 Crore in TBWES, resulting in a net impact of Rs. 27 crore on profits for the current period.

This is the largest rise since at least 2013, and all but ensuring global CO₂ emissions also increased last year, according to Chinese government data.

China’s CO₂ emissions fell from 2013 to 2016 due to a shift away from smokestack industries and construction as economic drivers, booming power generation from renewable energy and policies to tackle air pollution, Lauri Myllyvirta explained on the Greenpeace website.

Reduction in CO₂ emissions from China, the US and the UK were the primary reasons that global emissions growth stopped over this period.

However in 2016 the Chinese government kick-started another construction boom that has seen demand for steel and other construction materials surge, driving up coal use and emissions in China and pushing global emissions back to growth.

There is major uncertainty around China’s coal use numbers: production increased by 4.5 percent in 2018 and 3.3 percent in 2017, according to the government data release, and the figures also show a small increase in coal imports in both years.

Output of coal-fired power and metals, the largest users of coal, increased significantly. Yet the increase in total coal use was reported at only 1 percent in 2018 and 0.4 percent in 2017. It’s likely that coal use fell more than reported until 2016 and subsequently has increased more than reported in the past two years.

The increase in coal demand was mainly driven by the power sector, which increased by 5 percent. Growth in electricity demand was driven by sectors linked to China’s construction industry — iron, steel and other metals; cement; glass and construction accounted for two-thirds of growth in industrial power demand.

Volume of construction also outpaced demand for new apartments and other real estate: 22 percent of apartments in China are reported to be empty. Sales of apartments were stuck at 2017 levels even as the amount of new construction started increased by 20 percent, making this trend financially unsustainable. However, since a large number of new construction projects were started late last year, energy use for the construction materials needed to finish the buildings will likely see energy demand continue to rise in the coming years.

The big question that remains open is how much stimulus the government wants, with new lending and infrastructure project approvals jumping to unprecedented levels in January, but the central bank telling banks to moderate lending and top decision-makers swearing by a “moderate” stimulus.

The Chinese government released a major new air quality plan — “Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the War for Blue Skies”- in 2018, with provinces releasing their own plans and targets. Based on independent research, a total of 11 provinces have a “coal cap” — a target to reduce coal consumption to meet an absolute cap in 2020.

Latest province-level data on coal consumption is for 2016, when the targets would have required provinces to cut coal use by an estimated total of 140 million tonnes, or 4 percent of national total consumption. With coal use rebounding in the past two years, many of these provinces will need an even steeper cut in the next two years. This will be an important factor pushing demand down on the national level, too.

Another driver behind the coal consumption surge is coal-to-chemicals industry. Coal-to-chemical technology is a set of processes that transform coal into oil, gas and other chemicals conventionally produced from oil, releasing even more CO2 and toxic pollutants in the process than the conventional petrochemicals industry. Yet China’s coal industry has pegged major hopes on the coal-to-chemicals industry as other sources of demand growth are expected to dry up.

Coal use in the emerging sector jumped an estimated 60 percent from 2016 to 2018, contributing an increase of around 0.4 percent in total national coal demand. Another 30 percent increase in coal use on the sector is expected from 2018 to 2020.

2018 saw a wave of new projects going into construction, with a single province, Sha’anxi, starting construction on 10 new coal-to-chemicals plants.

Power generation from non-fossil sources grew by 29 percent, with wind power generation increasing 20 percent and solar PV 50 percent. Wind and solar generated 8 percent of China’s power needs, up from 3 percent five years ago. Power generation from wind and solar in China in 2018 was equal to the total power generation of UK and the Netherlands.

The share of power generated from coal and gas fell to 70 percent.

Suppliers blame the owners for being too conservative and not purchasing a newer and better product. However, the blame rests on the suppliers for not clearly providing the Lowest Total Cost of Ownership Validation (LTCOV). This has to be so convincing that it is as easy for the customer to justify the purchase of the newer product to top management as it is to justify the lowest priced product.

“Newer” can mean widely used, but just not by the target customer. It can mean widely used in other industries, but not just the industry of the target customer. “Newer” can also mean that there are none or just a few installations in total. The LTCOV has to include a discount based on lack of experience. In the first case, the discount is negligible. At the other end of the spectrum there may have to be concessions to obtain the first installation. In all cases, the LTCOV has to be prepared so that it is absolutely convincing. The problem is that there is not even a standardized procedure which ensures accuracy or validation.

To present a case that is absolutely convincing the following elements are needed:

· Understanding and utilization of the cost factors which apply to the industry, process, and specific customer.

· An analysis which takes all the factors and options into consideration and accurately weighs them to come to the best possible conclusion.

Cost factors: The compilation of all the cost factors which are shaped by the process and the industry is task which could cost millions of dollars. Unless this compilation is already available the validation of a newer and better product is cost prohibitive. Mcilvaine is addressing this availability problem with “Decision Guides”. These guides are arranged by industry. Coal Fired Boiler Decisions and Frac Sand Decisions are two examples. The guides are also prepared for individual processes. Dry Scrubber Decisions includes the analysis of the options for coal-fired power, cement, waste-to-energy and other industries.

There are product-oriented decision guides. The fiber, media, and bag options for frac sand dryers and dry scrubber systems are all included in the fabric filter decision guide. The McIlvaine Fabric Filter Knowledge Network has been published since 1976. Prior to the internet it was a set of looseleaf binders with thousands of pages. Abstracts of new articles were provided monthly on 3x 5 library cards Subscribers could then order the full text. New pages for replacement or insertion in the binders were also furnished. This is the level of effort needed to provide the cost factors. With the internet this process is much easier on a per fact basis. It is even harder on the basis that there are orders of magnitude more facts and opinions which need to be included. The entire spectrum of IIoT and Remote O&M products and options are included in IIoT & Remote O&M. There are separate analyses by industry and then each product category from process management software to the individual sensors for each type of flowing solid, liquid, or gas.

Competitive alternatives: The decision guides and McIlvaine product directories provide information on each of the suppliers. The LTCOV has to address each of the relevant alternatives and convince the customer that the new product is better. One way that comparisons are conducted is in webinars where each product supplier presents his case. McIlvaine has conducted and recorded hundreds of such discussions. Most notably was one on materials for FGD scrubbers in the 1980s when owners were encountering crevice corrosion problems costing the industry hundreds of millions of dollars. A webinar scheduled for 90 minutes was extended to a series of webinars totaling 9 hours.

The problem with this approach is that it favors experience and does not allow meaningful analysis of more innovative but less used technologies. What is needed is the input of competitors and subject matter ultra-experts to validate a newer product. The format should duplicate the debate format where the affirmative is represented by the supplier of the product; the negative is argued by competitors, and the judges are subject matter ultra-experts. These are subject matter experts who also are utilizing the decision guides.

The following sequence will be used. The supplier will make his case utilizing the commonly accepted factors and then invite comments and discussion from the competition as well as from the consultants and end users. The validation is a continuous process and not a one-time event. So in debate terms the affirmative will be followed by the negative. The next round is the affirmative rebuttal. The supplier will then defend against the comments and claims which are negative. Finally in classical debate sequence you have the negative rebuttal. Since the goal is continuous validation. There should be continuous affirmative and negative rebuttals along with new evidence and new affirmative arguments to make.

Continually updated analysis: The LTCOV for each product will be continuously available for all to see on line. It will be part of one or more decision systems. This means that the viewer can reference many other documents which are also accessible. The summary will include the adverse comments of the competition and the refutation of those comments. The viewer will have the ability to view the detailed data to see that it matches the summary.

The big advantage of this approach to the customer is that he can now choose the lowest total cost of ownership product. This can be based solely on the publicly available analyses or ones tailored to him. The customer can request a confidential version of the LTCOV. The supplier and the competition can both customize their arguments to address the unique needs of a specific plant.

This program is being introduced supplier by supplier. One company has already contracted with McIlvaine for one or more LTCOV initiatives. Announcement on this will be made shortly.

Here are excerpts from the Dry Scrubber Decisions which, in turn, has data extracted from Coal- fired Boiler Decisions. This includes the FGD & DeNOx newsletter, which has been published by McIlvaine since 1974. Dry scrubbing analysis was provided from the first pilot plant in a western utility, to worldwide coverage as it became widely used. This wealth of available information provides a strong foundation for the LTCOV of any dry scrubber product.

McIlvaine started the reporting of dry scrubbing around 1980. The following excerpts start in 2007 and culminate in a 2015 Hot Topic Hour from which slides are extracted. There are a number of developments since that date which are not included in the excerpts.