Honor System for Unvaccinated Mask Wear is Concerning

CDC Mishandled Announcement of New Mask Guidelines

Twenty-five Percent of the Population will not be Vaccinated

World will Not Be Safe Until COVID Vanquished Everywhere

Masks will be Used in the Flu Season Going Forward

Masks will Continue to be a Big Revenue Producer

Indian HVAC Air Filter Demands are Huge

HVAC Air Filter Market has Lots of Important Niches|

Bangladesh Covid Case Count Rises to Just Under 800,000

How Much Air Filter Does a Home Really Need?

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Honor System for Unvaccinated Mask Wear is Concerning

Without verification systems, parts of the country are now having to rely on an honor system to ensure unvaccinated Americans are masking up -- a system that some say, does not work.

"I say this respectfully to the CDC but we really need to get back to a point where it's encouraging (people) to get vaccinated and more of that focus rather than celebrating our newfound freedoms," the mayor of Kansas City, Missouri, told CNN on Monday. "Because the honor system just ain't working here, I don't think it's going to work in a lot of parts in this country," Mayor Quinton Lucas said.

Now, the mayor said, local officials are worried about how to move forward.

"It creates these sort of challenges where, how does the store clerk check it? How does our health department actually enforce any rule at all? So, while I respect many of the jurisdictions that are trying to, I think, really have adherence to the CDC (guidance), it's a challenge for us," the mayor said.

While Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced the end of the statewide mask mandate last week, Baltimore City health officials announced a local mandate would remain in place until at least 65% of adults in Baltimore have received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose.

In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy signed an order Monday eliminating a mask requirement for outdoor public spaces but kept a masking requirement for indoor public spaces and workplaces.

"Outdoor environments pose a lesser risk of transmission of the virus than indoor settings and lifting the indoor mask mandate at this time could lead to a rise in transmission among those not yet fully vaccinated, including children who are either not yet eligible or who have just recently become eligible," Murphy said in a statement.

 

CDC Mishandled Announcement of New Mask Guidelines

"As we approach our vaccination target in the coming weeks, we expect to be able to safely lift the indoor mask requirement soon,"  says Dr. Sanjay Gupta

California also plans to keep its mask mandate for indoor activities in place for another month, officials said. The state's face covering rule will be dropped for fully vaccinated residents on June 15, Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly announced Monday.

"This four week period will give Californians time to prepare for this change, while we continue the relentless focus on delivering vaccines, particularly to underserved communities and those that were hard hit throughout this pandemic," Ghaly said.

So far, roughly 47.5% of the US population has received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose and about 37.3% of the country is fully vaccinated, CDC data shows.

 

Twenty-five Percent of the Population will not be Vaccinated

One expert said she expects roughly 20-25% of Americans will not get a vaccine but says she hasn't given up hope for all the people who haven't yet gotten a shot.

"There's still a ground game that is being played, it's about going door to door, it's about getting trusted community leaders," emergency physician Dr. Megan Ranney said Monday. For example, she said that if people are directly offered a vaccine, they will often agree to get the shot.

"If we do that, we will get a significant percentage of those folks who have not yet been vaccinated," she added.

The CDC is also asking businesses to help support workers to get vaccinated, Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told CNN earlier this week.

"We are really asking the businesses to work with their workers to make sure that they have the paid time off to get themselves vaccinated so they can be safe," Walensky said.

 

World will Not Be Safe Until COVID Vanquished Everywhere

President Joe Biden said Monday his administration would share millions more doses of Covid-19 vaccines with other countries -- in addition to the 60 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine he has already committed to sharing by July 4.

The President said that the US would share at least 20 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines by the end of next month, totaling 80 million doses that are set to be sent abroad.

The additional 20 million doses will include Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson vaccines as well as AstraZeneca, which has to be approved by federal regulators before being shipped overseas. That effort is underway.

"What they've announced today is really important," Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director, told CNN on Monday. "This pandemic will not be over for the US until it's over globally."

Biden also said that Monday's announcement was the latest effort by his administration to ramp up efforts abroad and work with other world leaders to end the pandemic and said he expected to announce progress on beating the pandemic overseas at the G7 summit in June.

 

Masks will be Used in the Flu Season Going Forward

The flu season generally peaks between December and February each year, bringing up to 45 million illnesses, 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This year, however, as of Feb. 5, there have been only 1,455 cases in the U.S.

“Though caused by a different virus from the one that causes COVID-19, the flu is also a respiratory viral disease, so everything we are doing to slow transmission of COVID-19 should also reduce transmission of flu,” says Eli Klein, an associate professor of emergency medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine

By Jan. 31, there had been only six cases of flu diagnosed this season at Johns Hopkins hospitals, including The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center, Howard County General Hospital, Sibley Memorial Hospital, Suburban Hospital and Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital. Those hospitals saw 4,805 cases in the 2019–20 season, and 2,846 in the 2018–19 season.

(Because the flu season typically runs from Oct. 15 to May 15, there’s still a chance that flu cases will pick up in the next few months. Also, one strain of flu — influenza B — tends to circulate later in the season.)

Vaccinations have also helped prevent infection. More Americans received the flu vaccine this season than in the previous four flu seasons, according to the CDC. By the end of January 2021, 193.2 million people had been vaccinated, compared with 173.3 million at that time last year.

At Johns Hopkins Medicine, which includes the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Health System, the flu vaccine is mandatory for all personnel, unless they have approved medical or religious exemptions.

Cases of other respiratory viruses besides influenza are down as well; the health system diagnosed only six positive cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) by the end of January. By this time in the previous two years, Johns Hopkins clinicians had already seen hundreds of RSV cases.

 

Masks will Continue to be a Big Revenue Producer

Mask use in the U.S. and countries with high vaccinated percentages will be reduced but the worldwide market will be robust for many years to come.

Wearing a mask has negative life quality impacts depending on the length of use. If you wear a mask 200 hours per year it is only 10% of the life quality reduction from wearing it all year long.

If you wear the mask on the subway when you are not conversing with others there is no communication life quality reduction. The flu surge is in the winter. So discomfort from heat is not a factor. On a cold day, the mask may be a plus as every skier knows.

Therefore mask discomfort can be minimized by the length of time it is worn and the setting.

The mask life quality benefits include reduction in sickness and death. Most mask wearers will also view avoidance of infection of others as a life quality benefit. This includes not only family, friends, and co-workers but also strangers. Most but not all people want to be good citizens. They want the approval of others. Therefore when they have this approval it is a life quality benefit. Many people just want to meet their own high standards of being good citizens.

Let’s take a grocery store setting at a time when 60% of the people are not fully vaccinated but masks are not mandated. Most unvaccinated people will want to follow the honor system and wear a mask. Others will not. These are life quality choices which in general need to be left to people unless there is substantial public risk.

Substantial public risk is a nebulous term. It meant a 55 mph speed limit at one point. but then it was changed in many locations to 65 mph. Just traveling in an automobile statistically shortens an 85 year life by a few months. So we continuously balance life quality benefits against losses.

The average person is infectious with colds, flu etc. for 14 days per year. So mask wearing by these individuals will likely be customary. In the U.S. this will result in 30 billion hours of use per year. At $ 0.01 mask cost per hour mask revenues just for these sick individuals will be $300 million per year.

Twenty-five million people will elect not to be vaccinated. Twenty million of those people are likely to follow the honor system when in public places. Assuming that the average mask use is 400 hours per year for 20 million people, there will be 8 billion hours of mask wearing or an annual market of $80 million.

McIlvaine believes that the retail and leisure service market will be larger than other markets and that workers in meat processing and other industries where product quality can be impacted by masks will also continue mask use.

The market for those with medical conditions or allergies will continue to be strong. Wildfires, dust storms and air pollution will continue to generate significant mask revenues.

The U.S. market will be dwarfed by other worldwide markets the immediate need in India is just one example

The world mask market is forecasted in detail and continually revised. Details are found at

http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/n7f-masks-respirators-world-markets

 

Indian HVAC Air Filter Demands are Huge

India’s total virus cases since the pandemic began swept past 25 million on Tuesday as the country registered more than 260,000 new cases and a record 4,329 fatalities in the past 24 hours.

The numbers continue a trend of falling cases after infections dipped below 300,000 for the first time in weeks on Monday. Active cases in the country also decreased by more than 165,000 on Tuesday — the biggest dip in weeks.

But deaths have continued to rise and hospitals are still swamped by patients.

India has recorded nearly 280,000 virus deaths since the pandemic began. Experts warn that both the number of deaths and total reported cases are likely vast undercounts.

Infections in India have surged since February in a disastrous turn blamed on more contagious variants as well as government decisions to allow massive crowds to gather for religious festivals and political rallies.

The pandemic is creating additional challenges for air filter suppliers addressing the Indian market. A large number of office complexes, shopping malls, metro stations, and airports are being built across the country. As all such spaces are mandated to have HVAC equipment, the demand for such systems will continue increasing from commercial users.

The northern part of the country had been the most lucrative for the Indian HVAC market in the past. As the region experiences varying climatic conditions, its HVAC needs are diverse. For instance, Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab are predominantly hot, therefore require cooling systems. Similarly, heating equipment is a necessity in the mountainous parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, as well as the northern plains region, during its long and cold winters.

During the next decade, the fastest growth in the Indian HVAC market will be witnessed in the western part of the country. A large number of companies have their manufacturing plants in regional cities, including Mumbai, Pune, Ahmedabad, and Nagpur. With the growing manufacturing sector, the demand for HVAC systems will rise sharply here, as such equipment is mandated in industrial units for operational efficiency and employee safety.

HVAC Air Filter Market has Lots of Important Niches|

The market for air filters in various HVAC applications is dependent on a number of industry and process variables. McIlvaine is pursuing holistic Content Marketing using IIoW to fully analyze these variables.  It is explained at  http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/47-news/1655-nr2643.

Market forecasts can be based on comprehensive analyses of what types of products will be preferred for each narrow niche. Obtaining agreement on the classification of these niches is challenging.  McIlvaine has elected to use the North American Industrial Classification System  (NAICS) for the industrial niches.

A substantial portion of the HVAC filter revenues come from the manufacturing sector. It therefore is desirable to segment the needs (opportunities) precisely. McIlvaine starts with the manufacturing classifications which are 31 to 33.  311 is dry product food  industries and 312 is liquid products.  So Breweries is 312120 whereas wineries ends in 30 and distilleries in 40.

Due to Coronavirus surges in meat and poultry processing worldwide, this is an industry needing HVAC upgrades.

 

An additional reason is the impact of HVAC on the end product.  Shelf life of pork in some cases has increased by 12 days due to more, cleaner and better distributed air.

There are just under 5,000 plants in the U.S.  Many of the plants are part of international companies headquartered in the U.S.

How clean does the air have to be to protect people and product in an animal processing plant?  What is the capital and maintenance cost of various efficiency alternatives? The answers may be different in a beef, pork or poultry processor. These are the answers sought by the purchaser, supplier and the forecaster. 

McIlvaine is reaching out to various publishers including International Filtration News  (IFN).  A feature article by McIlvaine on HVAC will appear in the next issue of IFN.

IFN has many good articles on HVAC which will help shape the assessment of choices.  One in the last issue was by 3M and demonstrated that their filter is effective in  removing viruses.

https://www.filtnews.com/virus-filtration-performance-of-residential-hvac-filters/

The challenge  will be for publishers, suppliers and purchasers to adopt the same identification process and to make sure that the relevant information is easily available to the on line searcher.  There is a whole science around Search Engine Optimization (SEO). But the amount of available information is outstripping SEO.  A structured system where you select a specific application and product is an alternative which quickly assures access to the most relevant information.

The McIlvaine HVAC filter market report addresses the organizational challenge. More details are shown at

http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/air-filter-market-and-supplier-program

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

 

Bangladesh Covid Case Count Rises to Just Under 800,000

Bangladesh reported 1,272 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 30 deaths from the coronavirus on Tuesday, bringing the total count to 782,129 with 12,211 deaths.

The Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) said that 16,855 samples were tested in the last 24 hours across Bangladesh.

The total number of recovered patients in the country stands at 724,209 including 1,115 new recoveries, said the DGHS.

According to the official data, the COVID-19 fatality rate in Bangladesh is currently 1.56 per cent and recovery rate is 92.59 percent.

Bangladesh recorded the highest number of daily cases at 7,626 on April 7 and that of daily deaths at 112 on April 19.

 

How Much Air Filter Does a Home Really Need?

How much filtration does a home need? After the pandemic, many homeowners would say, “As much as we can get!” And some businesses are talking about very high-performance filtration. But is there such a thing as too much filtration for a home environment?

Home builder PulteGroup Inc. recently announced a plan to build communities across the country with numerous health features. This includes MERV 16 filters for all the HVAC systems. Pulte’s press release calls this “hospital-grade air filtration.” The release said the offerings came about from a survey that found 60% of respondents say how a home can support health and wellness was the most important attribute.

“As a direct result of the pandemic, consumers are seeking homes that will help them stay healthy, and Pulte Homes is leading the way,” said John Chadwick, PulteGroup’s CEO, in the release.

Tech mogul Elon Musk talks about going even further. When he floated the idea of a Tesla HVAC system last fall, he said it would include HEPA filters. Tesla has been offering HEPA filters as an option on its vehicles for several years, part of what the company calls its “bioweapon defense mode.”

But higher filtration comes with its own challenges. High-performance filters cost more and may need to be changed more often. If installed improperly, they offer no more protection than lower performance filters. And they can tax an HVAC system.

 For people worried about threats to their health from a virus, allergens, or pollutants, a filter that removes these particles is needed. Traditionally, filters did little to remove these, said Kathleen Owen, a member of ASHRAE’s epidemic taskforce. Those filters were designed to keep the coils clean and the system functioning.

Over the last thirty years, most home filters have been improved to MERV 6-8 levels; these will remove some of the particles related to health issues, Owens said. With COVID, though, the recommendation is to increase filtration levels significantly.

In some cases in the past, technicians downgrade filtration to improve airflow, said Tom Piscitelli, vice president of distributed markets for SecureAire.

“A service technician cares about equipment and doesn’t want a callback,” Piscitelli said.

He said HVAC contractors need to discuss the trade-offs with customers and determine what their higher priority is — filtration or performance. A fuller filter will capture more particles, but it will affect airflow. Of course, a dirty system will also decrease airflow.

An HVAC contractor could set up a maintenance plan based on static pressure readings. A technician can take a reading on the initial visit and then take another during the maintenance contract visit six months later. If the static pressure is within a certain range, the technician can sell the homeowners a filter and tell them to replace it in three months. Some newer HVAC systems can even measure static pressure and send a message when the filter needs replacement.

“Air quality has always suffered because of air pressure concerns,” Piscitelli said.

Consumers should worry about the effect of increasing pressure drop across a filter as may happen with higher MERV filters because that means it takes more to push air through the system. The system will need to run more to cool or heat a house, may use more energy, and could hurt the fan. At the same time, Owen said, increasing pressure drop often means the air will pass through the filter less often and the filter will capture fewer contaminants.

“If you’re not running it, you’re not filtering,” she said.

Higher performance does work, Owen said. A MERV 13 filter, when properly installed, will capture 85% of viruses in a single pass. The more air changes, the more it captures. This clean air also helps dilute the virus in the air we breathe. However, the virus comes from people

“If we are near to the infected person, the exposure is going to occur long before the air has time to get to the filter,” Owen said. “Your filter may be good, but it may not do much for what you’re breathing, because you’re breathing so close to the source. Hence the need for distancing and airflow into the occupied space for dilution.”

Pollen is similar. Pollen is usually 30 to 40 microns, which seems small, but is actually so large that it’s rarely airborne indoors where the air velocity is less than outside on a breezy day. It enters a home on shoes and clothing. Keeping pollen out is likely to work better than an HVAC filter. In-room air cleaners near the people will also help cleaning the air near the people.

The real benefit from high performance air filtration has to do with wildfires. Even a MERV 15 filter only captures up to 75% of the contaminants from a wildfire on the first pass.

“Because it’s a combustion aerosol, a lot of it is much smaller, so you really want a better filter for that,” Owen said.

Wildfires seem like more common occurrences. There were more than 50,000 wildfires in the United States last year, an all-time record according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That’s a lot, but these fires were spread over a fairly large geographic area, so the risk to any individual remains relatively low.

Still, consumers want to reduce any risk. High-filtration is, at least for now, a marketing technique being used by some companies. HVAC contractors need to make sure a system can handle a higher performance filter and explain to consumers what the trade-offs may be in terms of a system’s overall performance. They will also need to make clear what a filter can and cannot do on its own, and they need to set up a maintenance plan that takes into account the effect of static air pressure from increased filtration.

https://www.achrnews.com/articles/144812-how-much-filtration-does-a-home-really-need