COVID Worries Are Not All Rational

Mask Market will be Determined by Life Quality Perceptions

Spunmelt Capacity Increasing Rapidly

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COVID Worries Are Not All Rational

 

The following fable has been widely circulated in the last few days and reported in the NY Times. Guido Calabresi, a federal judge and Yale law professor, invented a little fable that he has been telling law students for more than three decades.

He tells the students to imagine a god coming forth to offer society a wondrous invention that would improve everyday life in almost every way. It would allow people to spend more time with friends and family, see new places and do jobs they otherwise could not do. But it would also come with a high cost. In exchange for bestowing this invention on society, the god would choose 1,000 young men and women and strike them dead.

Calabresi then asks: Would you take the deal? Almost invariably, the students say no. The professor then delivers the fable’s lesson: “What’s the difference between this and the automobile?”

In truth, automobiles kill many more than 1,000 young Americans each year; the total U.S. death toll hovers at about 40,000 annually. We accept this toll, almost unthinkingly, because vehicle crashes have always been part of our lives. We can’t fathom a world without them.

It’s a classic example of human irrationality about risk. We often underestimate large, chronic dangers, like car crashes or chemical pollution, and fixate on tiny but salient risks, like plane crashes or shark attacks.

One way for a risk to become salient is for it to be new. That’s a core idea behind Calabresi’s fable. He asks students to consider whether they would accept the cost of vehicle travel if it did not already exist. That they say no underscores the very different ways we treat new risks and enduring ones.

The New York Times cited the fable recently because of Covid-19. Covid certainly presents a salient risk: It’s a global pandemic that has upended daily life for more than a year. It has changed how we live, where we work, even what we wear on our faces. Covid feels ubiquitous.

Fortunately, it is also curable. The vaccines have nearly eliminated death, hospitalization and other serious Covid illness among people who have received shots. The vaccines have also radically reduced the chances that people contract even a mild version of Covid or can pass it on to others.

Yet many vaccinated people continue to obsess over the risks from Covid — because they are so new and salient.

‘Psychologically hard’

To take just one example, major media outlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of a getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.

But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.

That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.

It’s true that experts believe vaccinated people should still sometimes wear a mask, partly because it’s a modest inconvenience that further reduces a tiny risk — and mostly because it contributes to a culture of mask wearing. It is the decent thing to do when most people still aren’t vaccinated. If you’re vaccinated, a mask is more of a symbol of solidarity than anything else.

Coming to grips with the comforting realities of post-vaccination life is going to take some time for most of us. It’s only natural that so many vaccinated people continue to harbor irrational fears. Yet slowly recognizing that irrationality will be a vital part of overcoming Covid.

“We’re not going to get to a place of zero risk,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, said during a virtual Times event last week. “I don’t think that’s the right metric for feeling like things are normal.”

After Nuzzo made that point, Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told us about his own struggle to return to normal. He has been fully vaccinated for almost two months, he said, and only recently decided to meet a vaccinated friend for a drink, unmasked. “It was hard — psychologically hard — for me,” Jha said.

“There are going to be some challenges to re-acclimating and re-entering,” he added. “But we’ve got to do it.”

And how did it feel in the end, I asked, to get together with his friend?

“It was awesome,” Jha said.

Mask Market will be Determined by Life Quality Perceptions

The previous article indicated choices including masks are made in part on risks that are observed to be salient. What is salient is likely to be new rather than what is of highest risk? So irrational beliefs will be a factor in mask selection. Since the risk of COVID has been real for more than a year it may be no longer as salient to the individual.

There are other irrational beliefs based on perceived life quality enhancement. Take  the market for sports footwear. Because of perceived life quality impacts purchasers are spending billions of dollars per year for shoes that are ten times more costly than functional equivalents.

Hoodies are more uncomfortable than masks and yet they are valued highly by many teenagers.

CATE is an acronym for Comfortable, Attractive, Tight fitting, Efficient. Mask sales in the future will be determined by how well the product fits these needs. Comfortable and attractive are drivers  based on emotional life quality impacts.

Tight fitting and efficient are drivers based on extending life and avoiding sickness. Tight fitting and efficient masks may be more uncomfortable than loose fitting masks but they offer better protection.

The cost is also a function of the performance. The rational and emotional drivers lead to mask decisions. There is a measurement tool which takes both into account and can be used to predict the mask market.

This metric measures all harm and good. This was developed by McIlvaine and is called Quality Enhanced Life Days (QELD). Below is a link to a feature article on it in Healthcare Development Magazine.

http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Decision_Tree/subscriber/Masks/QELD/Quality_Enhanced_Life_Days.htm

Most sustainability rating tools rely on third party determination of political and social impacts of any decision. QELD is straight forward and most valuable because it represents the actual life quality choices being made by the group impacted by the decision. If a majority of the group believes that allowing the elderly to die at an accelerated rate is worth the life quality benefits of mask avoidance, then this will be reflected in the QELD rating. A group is defined as eligible voters.

The basis of QELD is that people would rather live only 80 years, socialize and eat ice cream rather than to 100 as risk adverse hermits. The group would rather raise the speed limit to 65 mph knowing that it statistically will shorten their lives by a day or two for the life quality benefits of shorter travel times.

Insights on the future mask market can be gained by substantial effort to quantify and even shape the life quality impacts of wearing masks. The fact that CATE masks are both comfortable and attractive is very important in assessing life quality impacts. The negative health life quality risks need to be determined for all the different combinations of variables. They include general variables such as

·         Immunity percent in the group based on the percent which are vaccinated

·         testing activity

·         virus positivity testing percent

·         ambient air pollution and wildfires

They include individual variables

·             age and  health

·             environment

·             travel

·             work

·             leisure time

·             infectious illnesses such as colds

If an individual is fully vaccinated and is running outdoors in his leisure time the risk is negligible. So he may justify not wearing a mask. On the other hand if it is a crowded path he may want to wear a mask just as a courtesy to others who may not know he is vaccinated.

This decision will also be influenced by the positivity rate in the area. In India where the crisis is peaking the need to wear masks will be substantially different than in Israel where infection rates are low.

Even in a worst case scenario it is unlikely that the market will shrink to pre COVID levels. In many Asian countries the courtesy mask has become common. This is likely to become a worldwide life quality enhancement. The lack of a mask may someday be equated with spitting on the sidewalk.

At high virus load (High V) the negative life quality impacts are high compared to any negative life quality impacts of wearing masks such as discomfort or unattractiveness. However at low virus loads uncomfortable and unattractive mask life quality impacts may outweigh the benefits in the minds of the wearer. On the other hand comfortable and attractive (CA)  masks have lower negative life quality impacts than the virus (Low V).

The benefits of requiring CATE masks to any visitor to a hospital or nursing home are clear. Mask wearing during air or subway travel is likely to remain.

The average person is infectious 14 days per year. In the future it is likely that masks will be worn by anyone with a cold. A waiter at a restaurant or hairdresser who is infectious will also need to wear a mask. Establishment owners will likely prefer that all service personnel wear masks rather than make the public aware of infectious servers.

As more people become vaccinated, the risk factor will be greatly reduced. However this can be offset by adverse behavior or new variants or a combination  such as in Michigan. In India, the risk factor today equals what it was a year ago in any country.

Regulations should be  based on life quality risk reduction benefits offsetting discomfort and inconvenience. A person might be willing to give up a month of an 85 year life in order to avoid wearing a comfortable and attractive mask for a year. He might be willing to give up two months to avoid wearing an uncomfortable mask for a year. 

But the stakes could be much higher. They could involve years of life lost for the individual or his friends and family. A teenager responsible for the death of a grandparent would in retrospect likely be willing to give up years of life to have avoided this.

The mask discomfort and inconvenience is variable. Rules can require wearing masks only in certain settings or all the  time. The life quality benefits are a function of how many illnesses and deaths are avoided.

There is the discussion of public health versus individual liberty. In most cases it is a public heath issue where government has the right and obligation to protect citizens from dangerous behavior from others.

Mask A is uncomfortable and the risk is outweighed by life quality considerations before Mask B which is comfortable and attractive.

Tight fitting and efficient masks are proving to be the best protection against COVID. Social distancing and therefore occupancy are not nearly as effective. The requirement for tight fitting and efficient masks along with 100% occupancy can pose a risk lower than 25% occupancy with inefficient loose fitting masks.

 

Spunmelt Capacity Increasing Rapidly

Nonwoven Industry recently assessed the increase in spunmelt capacity which is underway. The big increase in demand for medical fabrics and other personal protective equipment has led to a surge in demand for spunmelt nonwovens globally.

Industry estimates put the level of new investment in 2020 at about 210,000 tons with about three-quarters of this capacity centered on Reicofil 5 technology. In 2021, another 166,000 tons of spunmelt technology is expected to be commissioned.

Avgol is relocating an existing asset from Israel to India as part of an immediate strategic investment in the region.

Avgol, an Indorama Ventures Limited company, leads the global hygiene market with a comprehensive range of ultra-lightweight spunmelt nonwoven fabrics.

Relocation of the Avgol line from Barkan, Israel to India is underway now, with installation expected to be completed by end of 2021.

Avgol entered the market in India in 2018 when it completed its first spunmelt line, which was reported at the time to be a non-Reicofil asset. At the time, the company said the investment was intended to help support existing customers as they entered the Indian market. Avgol also has spunmelt operations in North Carolina, Russia and China.

Berry Global continues to invest heavily in spunbond nonwovens. Recent announcements from the company include a state-of-the-art Reicofil 5 SMS asset to serve the rapidly growing medical fabrics markets in the region and around the globe. Start-up of the line is targeted for late 2022.

Additionally, Berry is investing $8 million in new equipment and enhancements to existing production lines at its Statesville, NC, site, to further optimize its production of in-demand spunmelt for applications including fabrication of medical gowns, face masks, and other personal protection equipment. The additional equipment and expanded capacity are expected to be operational in December 2021.

Berry reported that face mask and N95 respirator demand alone created significant increases for meltblown and spunbond materials used to make those products, in addition to SMS materials used for other infection control PPE products.”

In addition to significantly expanding capacity to support growing market needs, these investments, combined with Berry’s market leading know-how and proprietary raw material blends, will expand the company’s portfolio of the highest quality and highest performing materials in the market, which provide consumers with improved visual, tactile and comfort attributes.

Fibertex Personal Care is investing approximately $40 million to add new lines at its sites in Malaysia and the U.S. The Malaysian site will be expanded with the addition of a specialty nonwovens line while a printing line will be added to the U.S. site in Asheboro, NC. Both lines are expected to begin operations in the second half of 2021.

Fibertex Personal Care currently operates five lines at two sites in Malaysia, which make about 90,000 tons of spunmelt nonwovens capacity. Its most recent line came onstream in mid-2017. Increased wealth and growth in the Asian middle class segment is leading to growth in the hygiene market of approximately 10%.

Fitesa, Brazil’s largest nonwovens producer is adding two large-scale Reicofil spunmelt lines as part of an ambitious global expansion plan, announced late last year. At its site in Simpsonville, SC, Fitesa is in the process of adding a state-of-the-art Reicofil 5 spunmelt nonwovens line with startup scheduled for the second half of next year.

Since 2011, more than 80,000 metric tons of capacity have been installed with 138 jobs created at Simpsonville. Most recently, Fitesa started a meltblown line there to supply nonwovens for the production of face masks and respirators. Elsewhere in the world, Fitesa is adding spunbond capacity in Brazil as well as meltblown lines in Brazil, Germany and Italy as part of a 55,000-ton global expansion plan announced in November.

Fitesa recently completed construction on a multibeam Reicofil line in Cosmoplis, Brazil. This new line is being described as one of the most advanced spunmelt nonwovens lines in the region.

In addition to these new line investments, Fitesa is increasing production volumes, modernizing assets and enhancing the flexibility of the current asset base. These efforts will add another 20,000 metric tons of spunmelt capacity in the second and third quarters of 2021. The capacity, which will be split evenly between the U.S. and Europe, will serve the healthcare and hygiene markets.

In 2020, Fitesa added a second spunmelt line to its CNC International operation in Thailand. Fitesa acquired a share in this operation in 2019.

PFNonwovens has announced a multi-phase expansion to its facility in Hazleton, PA. Six months after saying it would add a Reicofil 5 line at the facility, the company announced in December 2020 it would add a second new line there. These investments will grow its manufacturing capacity and help the company expand in the medical and hygiene markets.

Phase two of the expansion, which will involve a second new production line, is scheduled to be complete in 2022. The company has not yet revealed details on this new line. It will be the eighth nonwoven line located in PFNonwovens’ Hazleton, PA, site, which it acquired from First Quality Nonwovens in 2018.

In the Czech Republic, PFNonwovens is completing work on a semi-commercial line in Znojmo. The new line, based on Reicofil 5 technology, allows the company to supply products which cannot be produced currently with conventional methods. It uses bicomponent technologies, offers a wide range of fiber types and profiles and enables the use of a variety of raw materials. Another significant element of this technology is the nonwoven textile bonding system, which is an alternative to the presently used conventional systems. The line is considered a fundamental building block to PFN’s newly built global innovation center expected to help the company achieve significant success in research, testing and commercialization of new products.

Meanwhile, PFNonwovens has streamlined its operation through the divestment of its Wuxi, China, operation to Jofo Nonwovens. The site, which was also a part of First Quality, contains one spunmelt line. Jofo has already announced plans to expand the site with an additional line.

Spunweb is in the process of adding two new polypropylene spunbond lines—an SSS and SS. These investments will bring the company’s capacity to 35,000 MT/year by Q3 of 2021. These new lines will meet the ever growing demands of its existing customers and also aims add new customers in the medical, packaging and hygiene segments. The company expects the new lines to be complete by the end of August 2021, on schedule.

Spunweb currently operates three polypropylene spunbond nonwovens lines which produce 11,000 metric tons per year put together. It started its first production line in 2016 with the vision to meet the needs of the hygiene and medical sectors with high quality nonwoven fabrics at affordable prices and shorter delivery schedules.

Toray added a new facility, capable of making 20,000 tons of spunbond nonwovens per year in Foshan, China, in April. This investment brought the company’s total Chinese capacity to 93,000 tons at two facilities. One of the largest makers of nonwovens in Asia, Toray also makes 61,000 tons of the material in Korea and 37,000 tons per year in Indonesia and is planning to start production of an 18,000-ton-per-year line in India. This investment will bring the group’s total production capacity to 209,000 tons per year.

The largest manufacturer of polypropylene-based spunbond nonwovens in Asia, Toray has facilities in China, Indonesia, Korea and India. However, production on its first Indian investment, a 18,000-ton-per-year spunbond line, has been delayed due to the Covid-19 epidemic.