McIlvaine Coronavirus Market Ale

World Death Rate Accelerating

Two More Days to Submit a Proposal on Masks to BARDA

Cargill Inc reopened its Guelph, Ontario beef processing plant days after it closed the facility due to an outbreak of COVID-19 infections among workers, the company said.

Cargill voluntarily agreed to the temporarily closure as 82 workers tested positive for the virus and as a precaution, 129 other people were self-isolating.

"I can confirm that we reopened our Guelph-Dunlop primary beef facility in Ontario, Canada on Tuesday, Dec. 29. This decision comes after careful deliberations among Cargill leadership and discussions with the Union and local health authorities," a company spokesman said in a statement to Reuters.

Noting the precautions the company will take as it resumes operations, it said shifts for workers will be varying in length.

"Employees should not come to work with COVID-19 symptoms or if they have had contact with someone with COVID-19 in the last 14 days," the company said.

The Guelph plant, which employs 950 people, is the latest in a string of North American meat plants to suspend or reduce production during the pandemic, although the biggest closures occurred in spring, including at Cargill's High River, Alberta plant.

Since then, packers have implemented new protective measures for workers, such as greater physical separation in plants that often involve elbow-to-elbow working conditions.

As McIlvaine has reported previously partitions and greater distancing are not as effective as tight fitting efficient masks and ceiling HEPA filters.

The science around the link between children and the spread of the coronavirus is still evolving, but a growing body of evidence suggests that kids attending school do play an important role in community transmission.

The issue comes as the resurgent spread of Covid-19 has prompted most of Europe to adopt the strictest level of public health measures, with many countries in the region shutting schools as part of a broader plan to curb infection rates and alleviate the strain on already stressed health facilities.

The polarizing issue of whether schools should stay open is far from clear cut, with the World Health Organization urging policymakers to be guided by a risk-based approach to maximize the benefit for the population.

School closures have a clear negative impact on children’s health, the United Nations health agency has warned, citing setbacks to children’s education and development, family income and the overall economy.

At present, the exact timing of how long schools will need to remain at least partially closed, and when they may be able to fully reopen, remains to be seen.

A study by researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich determined that Switzerland’s decision to shut schools last March was responsible for cutting mobility by 21.6%.

The study, published Sunday and not yet been peer-reviewed, found school closures ranked third in reducing mobility nationwide — and therefore Covid transmission.

A ban on gatherings of more than five people was shown to be the most effective policy tool, cutting mobility by around a quarter, while the closure of restaurants, bars and nonessential shops caused people to reduce total trips by 22.3%.

The study estimated that a reduction of 1% in human mobility predicted a 0.88% to 1.11% reduction in daily reported Covid cases, underscoring the effectiveness of shutting schools to slow the spread of the virus. It analyzed telecommunication data consisting of 1.5 billion trips taken by Swiss residents from Feb. 10 to April 26.

“Studies from interventions across hundreds of countries across the globe have consistently shown that school closures are associated with a reduction in R, and openings with an increase,” Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, told CNBC via email.

The “R” rate, or reproduction rate, refers to the average number of secondary Covid infections produced by a single infected person.

In the U.K., schools for the large majority of children in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are expected to remain closed for the coming weeks. And Gurdasani said data within England has previously shown that Covid cases drop during points of school closure, such as during mid-semester vacations.

Referencing data from the U.K.’s Office of National Statistics, she added children ages 2 to 11 had been found to be twice as likely as adults to be patient zero in the household, while those 12 to 16 years old were seven times as likely to bring infection into the family home.

The ONS examined household data within England between April and November last year. It also found that, once infected, children ages 2 to 16 were twice as likely to infect household contacts when compared with people over 17.

In light of this, it’s crucial that governments introduce mitigatory measures in schools, including smaller class and bubble sizes, better ventilation and air filtration with monitoring, mask use, social distancing, hygiene and use of large empty spaces to reduce risk,” Gurdasani said.

“Acknowledging the impact of schools on community transmission is crucial to ensuring we minimize risk of transmission within schools, as well as from schools into the community.”

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has said, where an epidemiological investigation has occurred, Covid transmission in schools has accounted for a minority of all Covid cases in a given country.

The EU agency highlights that most children do not develop symptoms when infected with Covid and if symptoms do develop, they tend to be a very mild form of the disease.

The CEO of Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna warned Wednesday that the coronavirus that has brought world economies to a standstill and overwhelmed hospitals will be around “forever.”

Public health officials and infectious disease experts have said there is a high likelihood that Covid-19 will become an endemic disease, meaning it will become present in communities at all times, though likely at lower levels than it is now.

Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel appeared to agree Wednesday that Covid-19 will become endemic, saying “SARS-CoV-2 is not going away.”

“We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever,” he said during a panel discussion at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.

Health officials will have to continuously watch for new variants of the virus, so scientists can produce vaccines to fight them, he said. Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday they’ve discovered two new variants likely originating in the U.S. and that one of them quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio, over a three-week period in late December and early January.

Pfizer researchers said its vaccine developed with BioNTech appeared to be effective against a key mutation in the U.K. strain as well as a variant found in South Africa.

Moderna’s vaccine has been authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for use in Americans who are 18 years old and older. Additional studies still needed to be completed in children, whose immune systems can respond differently to vaccines than those of adults.

U.S. officials are racing to distribute doses of both vaccines, but it will likely take months before the U.S. can vaccinate enough people to achieve herd immunity, meaning the virus won’t have enough new hosts to spread. Still, Bancel said Wednesday he expects the U.S. will be one of the first large countries to achieve “sufficient protection” against the virus.

There are already four coronaviruses that are endemic across the world, but they aren’t as contagious or deadly as Covid-19, according to the World Health Organization.

A mutated and more infectious coronavirus strain first identified in South Africa is “disturbing” and could pose a threat to antibody treatments that are used to prevent people from falling seriously ill from Covid-19, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

New coronavirus strains first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa have caused some concerns among scientists who say the mutated variants are highly infectious, though they don’t appear to be any deadlier compared with previous strains.

So far, health experts have said there’s no evidence the mutations alter the effectiveness of current vaccines. However, there’s some concern that the variant found in South Africa, known as 501Y.V2, might be more resistant to monoclonal antibodies, which have helped some people fight the virus when administered early on in their infection.

Through discussions with health experts in South Africa, Fauci said preliminary data shows there’s “more of a threat” the strain would evade some of the protections antibody treatments provide.

“It could be having some impact on protection for the monoclonal antibodies and perhaps even for the vaccine. We don’t know that” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a Q&A session at Schmidt Futures’ Forum on Preparedness.

He added that researchers in laboratories at the National Institutes of Health and across the country are quickly trying to determine the possible impact of the strain found in South Africa.

“People ask me, ‘Are you worried about it?’ These are not the kind of things I worry about, but it’s the kind of thing that I take very seriously,” Fauci said.

As viruses spread, they’re expected to mutate over time as the spikes on their surfaces change, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. The 501Y.V2 variant gets its name from the N501Y mutation found in the spike protein that the virus uses to gain entry into cells within the body.

This mutation is also seen in the variant U.K. health authorities identified in December, known as B.1.1.7. While both variants found in the U.K. and South Africa shared the N501Y mutation, they are different, according to the World Health Organization.

Fauci has previously said the mutated Covid-19 variations could pose a risk to the coronavirus therapeutics. Unlike vaccines, which trigger an immune response that attacks different parts of the virus, monoclonal antibodies target a very specific component, Fauci told California Gov. Gavin Newsom in late December.

Eli Lilly Chairman and CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC earlier Tuesday that he expects the company’s monoclonal antibody treatment to be effective against the variant found in the U.K., though the one in South Africa could pose more challenges. Eli Lilly’s drug was given emergency authorization in the U.S. in November and was followed by another drug from Regeneron.

“The South African variant ... is the one of concern. It has more dramatic mutations to that spike protein, which is the target” of these antibody drugs, Ricks said on “Squawk Box.” “Theoretically, it could evade our medicines.”

The CDC has yet to identify any strains of the 501Y.V2 variant in the United States, though the agency has found at least 72 cases with the B.1.1.7 strain found in the U.K. as of Monday, according to data from the CDC.

The United States reported more than 4,200 deaths Tuesday, bringing the nation’s total to more than 381,000 deaths since the onset of the pandemic, according to Washington Post data.

The single-day death total, which is a record, and peak levels of new infections and hospitalizations are grim milestones for a country still reeling from the attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol last week.

President Trump has announced sweeping changes to coronavirus vaccine rollouts, quickly making all vaccine supplies accessible, encouraging states to provide shots to residents 65 and older and cautioning states with slow vaccine rollouts that they could lose some of their supply to faster-moving states.

More than 92 million people around the world have been infected with the coronavirus since it emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and more than 1.9 million have died, according to Post data.

Increasing infections, deaths and virus mutations are pushing world leaders to implement new approaches to quelling the impact of the virus.

Switzerland on Wednesday announced firmer restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the virus and its mutations, banning events and closing restaurants and nightlife establishments while avoiding a full lockdown, Reuters reported.

“Infection rates are stagnating at a very high level and with the new, much more infectious virus variants, there is a threat of a rapid resurgence,” the government said in a statement to the news outlet.

Switzerland, which has had less stern coronavirus measures compared with other countries, has reported more than 487,000 coronavirus infections and more than 8,400 related deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Entertainment, sports, and leisure establishments will remain closed until the end of February.

In addition, Switzerland, which was the first country in continental Europe to start immunizing its citizens with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, will require companies to allow its employees to work from home when feasible, according to Reuters.

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin ordered mass vaccinations beginning next week, Reuters reported. Russia has recorded more than 3.4 million infections and nearly 62,000 deaths.

The country was hit with a second wave of infections starting in September but refrained from imposing a nationwide lockdown, opting for focused restrictions, according to the news outlet.

The threat of the variants emerging from the U.K. and South Africa has erased the possibility for German and Danish residents to see eased restrictions. Health measures were set to relax in Germany on Feb. 1, but Health Minister Jens Spahn said the risk the U.K. variant could pose could extend them for two or three months, Deutsche Welle reported.

Germany will also require travelers from other countries with high case counts to be tested upon entering the nation, according to Reuters.

Concerns about infection rates grew among Danish lawmakers as more than 200 cases of the new variant had been verified in the country, triggering leaders to extend its business and gathering restrictions by three weeks, according to the Local.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told Parliament on Wednesday that the extension of the restrictions were needed to prevent spread of the U.K. mutation.

BARDA DRIVe, in partnership with the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), seeks to understand the barriers and challenges associated with the next generation of innovative mask designs. The Mask Innovation Challenge is an initiative that aims to support the development of innovative masks that can protect Americans from respiratory pathogens. Through the following Request for Information, BARDA and NIOSH are soliciting input on judging criteria and testing methodology for the Mask Innovation Challenge, as well as identify potential stakeholders that are interested in supporting the challenge.

Interested parties should read the solicitation in full and prepare a response to be submitted to DRIVeComments@hhs.gov by 5:00PM EST on 01/15/2021 for consideration.

What do you see as the most important criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of a community mask that is to be used by the general public? Examples might include assurance of consistent fit, comfort, airflow resistance, ability to protect the wearer and stop particles from escaping the mask, cost, etc. .

Answer: We are addressing these questions on a daily basis in our Coronavirus Mask Decisions. One segment has been grouped as CATER which stands for Comfortable Attractive, Tight fitting , Efficient, and Reusable. Another group has been identified as disposable efficient and tight fitting. Another group is disposable, efficient, and loose fitting. A fourth group is disposable, efficient, loose fitting but with a brace which makes them tight fitting. A fifth group is industrial respirators.

The most important criterion is to provide everyone with tight fitting efficient masks. This can be done within just a few months with a combination of the above mask types and initial heavy reliance on medical masks made tight with a brace. The goal is to fit everyone with a mask which has a FFE (fitted filter efficiency) of 90%.

Extensive quantitative testing has shown that a surgical mask with a brace can equal an N95 mask. An N95 mask can achieve a 98% fitted filter efficiency. Billions of surgical masks are being produced. If the wearers also used the reusable brace they could average 90% FFE. So 10% emission from the transmitter and 90% removal by the recipient means that he inhales only 1% of the virus. This 99% virus reduction is more protection than vaccines and would allow quick return to normal activity.

McIlvaine has a forecast showing that a combination of mask types can provide the necessary protection worldwide. In the second quarter there would be a need for 9 billion surgical masks (Upgraded Disposable). Three billion braces would be needed.

CATER mask production should accelerate to a production rate of over 2 billion per quarter by the end of 2022.

In addition, please provide feedback on the following evaluation criteria: i.e.

Feasibility – Submission demonstrates a reasonable rationale for the design of the mask, intuitive design that can be used without fitting or prior training and contains components that are easily accessible.

Some brace and masks suppliers have up to five sizes to insure a tight fit. We are proposing safe bubbles where everyone entering has to have an FFE 90 mask. We have suggested developing more qualitative fit testing protocols including one using light leakage. Operators of the Safe Bubbles are responsible for limiting entrance to those who are wearing the right masks appropriately.

Some Safe Bubble Operators such as large retail stores and Fitness Centers can create revenues by selling masks and providing qualitative fit checks along with a certificate which will allow individuals to access other Safe Bubbles.

Innovation - Submission advances the state of the art in filtration efficacy, comfort, and utility of masks used by the general public.

Answer: McIlvaine is providing a continuously updated Decision Guide including innovations and the discussion of those innovations in webinars.

· Filtration Efficiency: Nanofibers, Membranes and bicomponent non wovens offer media alternatives to meltblowns. All of these are being analyzed and reported in Coronavirus Mask Decisions. The NY Times published a long article on Chinese face mask media production and quoted McIlvaine as a source.

· Comfort: McIlvaine created the acronym CATER (Comfortable, Attractive, Tight Fitting, Efficient, Reusable) to describe a class of masks which protects immune depressed individuals as well as the general public from air pollution, wildfire some, pollen etc. More than a decade of research has been undertaken to achieve all the CATER attributes. The performance of these masks is detailed in Coronavirus Mask Decisions.

· Utility: Medical masks with a brace which is preferably one which is commercially available but can be 3 rubber bands provides immediate availability of FFE 90 masks for everyone. CATER masks are the long term solution but they can slowly gain market share as production ramps up.

Barriers - Submission addresses barriers and limitations of currently available masks and proposed innovations are based on scientific and technical merit

Answer: The combination of mask types will eliminate the supply barrier. It will start initially with those which are available to meet FFE 90 but which are not as comfortable or attractive as desired. These will be steadily replaced with CATER masks.

Coronavirus Mask Decisions also includes analysis of technical phenomena not commonly understood. For example, a cough droplet captured on the interior of a medical mask will evaporate and virus will escape around the mask periphery.

Design and Desirability - Submission demonstrates how the proposed solution meets the needs of the users and shows how it could integrate into production now or in the future.

Answer: Coronavirus Mask Decisions is reviewing all the different designs. For example, some reusable masks include insertable filters. This extends mask life and reduces cost. The designers of CATER Masks without insertable filters cite comfort and utilitarian advantages where the whole mask is the filter. The use of antimicrobials can insure that the mask surface does not become a transmission source.

Mask cleaning is another subject which has been continually researched and is important. Since virus is inactivated after a period it is possible to cycle masks. H2O2, alcohol, UV light and other options are also available.

Mask fit is very important. New quantitative and qualitative measurement methods are being investigated. Training courses need to be made available. McIlvaine is initiating discussions with educational institutions to create courses on the subject. Physical therapists or trainers at Fitness Centers could take the course and insure that mask wearing expertise becomes readily available.

Please provide feedback to NIOSH on the following questions regarding performance criteria and testing protocols for novel mask designs. Please provide supporting rationale for any suggestions submitted

For the evaluation of novel mask designs in a laboratory setting, what performance criteria would you recommend and how would you structure a test? Examples might include criteria for evaluation of fit factors, percent allowable particle penetration through the filter material, percent allowable particle concentration escaping the mask, maximum inhalation, and exhalation airflow resistance, etc.

Answer: All of these criteria are of importance and addressed in Coronavirus Mask Decisions. Details are quickly available in key word searches of the Daily Alerts and the intelligence system. When you click on fit, links to 117 articles appear

Enter one or more keywords to search for using the Zoom Search Engine.
Note that '*' and '?' wildcards are supported.

... Immediate Opening of the Economy with CATER 95 Masks Here are Some of the Many Fit Testing Companies More Transmissible Virus Found in UK, EU and SA Trane Revenues Up ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 310 - 22 Dec 2020 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2020-12-21/Alert_20201221.html

... Now than Vaccines but Fail to Qualify the Term to Mean "Efficient and Tight Fitting" FDA will No Longer Review Chinese Masks for Addition to the Approved List Qualitative ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 264 - 16 Oct 2020 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2020-10-15/Alert_20201015.html

... so We Need the Safe Bubble Initiative New Methods are Needed to Assure a Tight Fit on Every Mask Worn in Public Suppliers of Disposable Masks are Focused on Increasing Production ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 212 - 4 Jan 2021 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2021-01-04/Alert_20210104.html

... Coronavirus Technology Solutions January 11, 2021 Eliminate COVID Now with Tight Fitting, Efficient Masks Details on Mask Options are Available from Fix the Mask Essential Mask Brace is ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 185 - 11 Jan 2021 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2021-01-11/Alert_20210111.html

... Combination of CATER and Upgraded Disposable Masks Supplied Initially Lots of Sealing Options Determining Mask Fit and the Amount of Unfiltered Air Standard Masks Result in Twice the Leakage When Worn ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 165 - 7 Jan 2021 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2021-01-05/Alert_20210105.html

... is a Life and Death Decision CATER 95 Mask Suppliers Have a Responsibility to Provide Fit Testing Advice Hong Kong Masks Performance Evaluated Ohio is Installing Some Devices Which May Not ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 164 - 24 Dec 2020 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2020-12-23/Alert_20201223.html

... in Weeks with High Efficiency Masks January 11, 2020 Eliminate COVID Now with Tight Fitting, Efficient Masks Details on Mask Options are Available from Fix the Mask Essential Mask ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 153 - 13 Jan 2021 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/TofC.html

... Coronavirus Technology Solutions October 7, 2020 Efficient Tight Fitting Masks are Needed to Beat COVID Supreme Court Nomination Celebration was a Super Spreader Event Increase the Effectiveness of Standard ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 145 - 7 Oct 2020 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2020-10-07/Alert_20201007.html

... Function of Face Mask Effectiveness Particle Size is Important but not Completely Quantifiable A Tight Fit is Just as Important as Media Filter Efficiency Determining Mask Fit and the Amount of ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 140 - 4 Dec 2020 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2020-12-03-04/Alert_20201203-04.html

... Stepping on a Foot Sanitizer Mask Choices for the Pandemic Media Starting to Analyze Mask Fit and Its Importance ____ Efforts Needed to Reduce Risk of COVID Evolving to Resist ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 136 - 12 Nov 2020 - URL: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/coronavirus/subscriber/Alerts/2020-11-12/Alert_20201112.html

If BARDA were to require prototypes to be submitted for evaluation, how many individual prototype samples should be evaluated?

Answer: It is one task to evaluate a prototype from a few samples. It is an entirely different task to determine the performance of all the masks being produced. There are a number of quality control consultants already engaged in validating masks at manufacturing facilities around the world. These companies need to be continually providing insights on the quality control challenges. This is a role undertaken in Coronavirus Mask Decisions.

What other factors or experiences with general-use masks do you consider important to this mask challenge that you want BARDA and NIOSH to be aware of?

Answer: The challenge to provide tight fitting efficient masks for everyone extends far beyond the U.S. If all Americans were wearing tight fitting and efficient masks the pandemic would be temporarily over. However, flights from overseas would result in new outbreaks. Economists have shown that eliminating the pandemic in Africa and Asia can be justified just on economic cost. The CATER Mask can be an elegant solution in the U.S. Medical masks with DIY braces may have to suffice in poor countries but they will be effective.

CATER masks are already widely used by those with health problems and for those living in wild fire areas. The greatest present use is where ambient air pollution is high. There will be a continuing need for this protection. Also courtesy masks will continue to be needed. The average person has two colds per year each lasting 10-14 days.

Answer: Engagement should extend to associations, governments, fiber suppliers, media manufacturers, mask manufacturers, antimicrobial suppliers, quality control consultants, suppliers of particulate measuring instrumentation, fit testers, and end user groups from fitness centers to schools. Meat processors and other industrial end users should also be involved. McIlvaine has identified decision makers at many of these entities and is conveying their insights in the Alerts and in periodic webinars. The next webinar is on January 21 and involves the broader goal of achieving mask goals in the short term

If there is an opportunity for sponsorship, is your organization interested in participating as a potential sponsor? If yes, what are the capabilities of your organization in support as a potential sponsor?

Coronavirus Mask Decisions covers all masks for public use. It is presently a free service with Daily Alerts, webinars and an intelligence system with links to relevant papers. It can be accessed at http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/CATER/subscriber/default.htm

McIlvaine is willing to partner with BARDA in a range of ways. At a minimum it could include all data as directed by BARDA in the system. At a maximum Coronavirus Mask Decisions could be become a government owned initiative with McIlvaine as sub-contractor as directed.

Would your organization be interested in joining a list of experts that may provide mentorship to challenge winners?

Would your organization be interested in serving as a marketing partner and provide marketing and outreach as part of the challenge competition including posting on websites, social media, and other outlets

Answer: Yes McIlvaine has capabilities well beyond the those involving Coronavirus Mask Decisions. It has databases and reaches 100,000 people around the world who have air, water, and energy interests. A number of contracts have been executed with U.S. and other governments relative to environmental issues. Bob McIlvaine was hired by EPA to testify before senate sub committees relative to SO2 emissions and solutions. He was also a director for 25 years of the Institute of Clean Air Companies

McIlvaine works closely with associations. The feature article by McIlvaine in the upcoming issue of International Filtration News is on masks. This publication is owned by INDA (association of non-woven manufacturers). McIlvaine writes feature articles each month for more than seven publications. In addition it has more than 50 of its own publications.