Holistic Plan to Battle COVID Now

TE Mask Bubbles are the Best Weapon to Defeat COVID

Open Schools Now

Countries with 3.3 Billion People will Only Achieve a 10% Vaccination Rate by the End of 2021

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Holistic Plan to Battle COVID Now

Office buildings, schools, gyms, and other facilities can be immediately reopened with the right holistic COVID game plan.

Companies such as Johnson Controls, Daikin, Mann + Hummel along with many others have the weapons to fight a full scale battle against COVID. The challenge is to use all the weapons with a holistic approach.  Presently the strategy is more like one used by Iran against Iraq. Just keep sacrificing ill equipped soldiers  until  the war is won  despite the costs. Here are the weapons available.

Weapon Category	Examples
Untrained and Ill Equipped Troops	Partitions, social distancing, cloth masks
Trained and Well Equipped Troops	TE 90 masks and fit testing
Light Armor	Room air purifiers
Heavy Armour	Efficient HVAC systems
Poor Strategy	No monitoring or game plan
Winning Strategy	Monitoring, control, and game plan

Every military manual advises that people win wars. Providing people with inefficient cloth masks when they could be wearing TE 90 masks is comparable to swords vs M6 rifles.  If everyone is wearing a TE 90 mask then only 1% of the virus is transmitted.

Room air purifiers and HVAC systems have to be designed around mask quality and practice. If one is eating or drinking the mask is not protective. To avoid the necessity of wearing masks all day the individual can be less restricted when in an area with few intruders, laminar air flow and efficient filters.

The concept can be likened to a pharmaceutical cleanroom with different levels of  particle removal.  Here are the U.S. and ISO ratings.

The wearing of masks would be a function of the measured rating in the area.  McIlvaine has recorded presentations on ways to measure and control air quality in each area. Particles and CO2 are good parameters. The number of people in an area can also be continuously monitored.

In a pharmaceutical cleanroom there will be ISO 3 biological safety cabinet in an ISO 7 space.  This space may also contain  ISO 5 isolators. The building would be maintained at ISO 9 or better and might have several ISO 7 areas each of which contains more efficient sub space.

In an office building the lobby could be maintained at ISO 9 with everyone wearing TE-90 masks 100% of the time. The elevator can be kept at ISO 5 but with everyone wearing TE 90 masks due to the close quarter contact with new people.

The upper floors could be maintained at ISO 9 but with some space meeting ISO 7 and others meeting ISO 5. Mask wearing would be a function of the actual continuously monitored CO2, particulate, and number of people.

Lunchroom eating areas and special conference rooms would be maintained at ISO 5 and masks could be removed while eating or drinking or making a presentation.

 

TE Mask Bubbles are the Best Weapon to Defeat COVID

The value of efficient masks to defeat COVID is underestimated. Efficient tight fitting masks can be made available to everyone. If masks with net efficiency (media capture minus air leakage) of 90% are worn by transmitter and recipient 99% of the inhalation is eliminated. If the world inhabitants were wearing these masks properly the battle would be won. Can this be accomplished and how? Here are some answers.

·          Sufficient reusable efficient tight fitting masks can be made available in a matter of just a few months.

·         The problem of obtaining a proper fit can be solved with creative thinking e.g.  each fitness center and large clothing retailer could offer fit testing advice and service.

·         Local governments would allow opening and operation of schools, airlines, meat processors, and office buildings based on the bubble concept. Each entrant would have to have what could be called a TE mask. TE stands for tight fitting and efficient. This could also be labeled as an ASTM 50 plus and would follow the testing protocols laid out by ASTM.

·          Since 90% net efficient masks are available most governments would want to specify TE 90 or TE 85 effectiveness including fit testing protocols.

The TE 90 masks if worn correctly will be more effective than vaccines. Partitions are no more effective in reducing virus transmission than they are perfume or cigarette smoke. Cloth masks have high air in leakage and low media efficiency. Highly efficient air filters can be very effective but many will be less effective because the recipient is in between the transmitter and filter.

The large near term profits will insure availability of the masks. The long term market will include 67 countries which will not have sufficient vaccines until 2024. It will also include masks for anti-air pollution, wildfires, and health issues.  The wealthy countries may have to contribute to insure adequate funding in the poorer countries with 3.6 billion people.

The wealthy countries would need 3 billion masks per quarter. But as the vaccinations take effect in the third quarter, the use could start to diminish. The poorer countries would be waiting their turn and would not experience peak purchases until the second quarter 2022.

The advantages of tight fitting masks for protection against air pollution, new variants of the coronavirus, influenza, and wildfires would be communicated and the market would steadily grow. People would wear masks when they have colds and adopt the courtesy customs of Asia.

The market would grow modestly after achieving 4 billion unit sales in the second quarter 2022 and then eventually stabilize around 3 billion units with  modest growth in future years.

For COVID mitigation in the wealthy countries the peak need would be 3 billion masks per quarter. At $30 per mask the market would be $90 billion by third quarter 2021. At this price the wearer could procure a Comfortable, Attractive, Tight Fitting Efficient, Reusable (CATER) mask. When compared to the value of gym shoes, hoodies or other items of clothing this would be an attractive purchase.

The biggest driver will be the TE mask bubbles. If the individual with a $100 per month gym membership needs a $30 mask in order to use the facility he will not hesitate. Parents will gladly pay for $30 masks if their children can return to school.

The problem comes with the cost for the 67 middle income and poor countries. The big variable is the length of use. What if a mask could be used for 1 year?  It might not look as nice in month 12 but how would it function otherwise?  Here is a guesstimate.

This graph is for a CATER 95 mask which is a version of TE 90. There would be a big deterioration in attractiveness. Comfort would likely not deteriorate much. The net efficiency which includes media capture less air in leakage might deteriorate from 90% to 70% but it would still be much better than a cloth mask. When you consider that there are more people walking around with used Michael Jordan shirts in Africa then people in the U.S. wearing new ones this scenario seems reasonable.

 

Open Schools Now

We are proposing that each school create a TE 90 bubble. Everyone who enters the campus would be required to wear a tight fitting efficient mask. Universities could lead the way.

Here is an opportunity which will result in 100 % opening of universities and make them technology leaders in the COVID battle. 

As you can see from the calculations if everyone is wearing a tight fitting efficient mask (0.9 x + 0.9 x 0.1 x = 99%)  only 1% of the virus can be transmitted. If you reduce classroom size to 10% you only get a 90% virus reduction. So with TE 90 masks and 100% occupancy you are ten times safer.

The first principle of dust control is capture of contaminants at the source.  The equation of 20% and 90% efficient masks is inexplicable. Since CATER masks are reusable there can be sufficient quantities for all students within months. The biggest challenge will be to make sure that each student is provided with a tight fitting mask and that he wears it appropriately.

A quantitative fit tester can cost around $15K. It can conduct a test in just a few minutes. Testing 30,000 students would therefore require 30,000 x 3 min/60 = 1500 hours. So one tester would be sufficient to test all students several times per year.

The university store could have several fit testers and fit testing services. CATER masks cost around $30. So if the store has a gross margin of $10 per mask and sells 60,000 masks per year, the margin would be $600K.  If each fit test cost $10 then that would be major revenue source. The masks could have the school logo and be sold to parents, faculty, visitors etc.

The university could also have a fit testing instructor course and offer it on line to trainers at fitness centers and others who would also be conducting fit testing.

The university could also be a leader in remedying  the misconceptions about mask efficiency and also provide statistical analysis comparing mask effectiveness to room occupancy, disinfection, HVAC, partitions.

Countries with 3.3 Billion People will Only Achieve a 10% Vaccination Rate by the End of 2021

Nearly 70 poor countries will only be able to vaccinate one in ten people against COVID-19 next year unless urgent action is taken by governments and the pharmaceutical industry to make sure enough doses are produced, a group of campaigning organizations warned today, as the UK begins to rollout vaccinations.

By contrast, wealthier nations have bought up enough doses to vaccinate their entire populations nearly three times over by the end of 2021 if those currently in clinical trials are all approved for use. Canada tops the chart with enough vaccines to vaccinate each Canadian five times. Updated data shows that rich nations representing just 14 per cent of the world's population have bought up 53 per cent of all the most promising vaccines so far.

The organizations, including Amnesty International, Frontline AIDS, Global Justice Now and Oxfam, who are part of an alliance calling for a People's Vaccine, used data collected by science information and analytics company Airfinity to analyze the deals done between countries and the eight leading vaccine candidates. They found that 67 low and lower middle-income countries risk being left behind as rich countries move towards their escape route from this pandemic. Five of the 67 - Kenya, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan and Ukraine - have reported more than 1.5 million cases between them.

Anna Marriott, Oxfam's health policy Manager, said: "No one should be blocked from getting a life-saving vaccine because of the country they live in or the amount of money in their pocket. But unless something changes dramatically, billions of people around the world will not receive a safe and effective vaccine for COVID-19 for years to come."

Heidi Chow, from Global Justice Now, said: "All pharmaceutical corporations and research institutions working on a vaccine must share the science, technological know-how, and intellectual property behind their vaccine so enough safe and effective doses can be produced. Governments must also ensure the pharmaceutical industry puts people's lives before profits."

So far, all of Moderna's doses and 96 percent of Pfizer/BioNTech's have been acquired by rich countries. In welcome contrast Oxford/AstraZeneca has pledged to provide 64 percent of their doses to people in developing nations. Yet despite their actions to scale up supply they can still only reach 18 per cent of the world's population next year at most. Oxford/AstraZeneca deals have also mostly been made with some of the big developing countries like China and India, while the majority of developing countries have not done deals and have to share the COVAX pool of vaccines between them.

This demonstrates that one company alone cannot hope to supply the whole world, and that only open sharing of technology between vaccine producers can make this possible.

The People's Vaccine Alliance is calling on all pharmaceutical corporations working on COVID-19 vaccines to openly share their technology and intellectual property through the World Health Organization COVID-19 Technology Access Pool, so that billions more doses can be manufactured and safe and effective vaccines can be available to all who need them.

The Alliance is also calling on governments to do everything in their power to ensure COVID-19 vaccines are made a global public good---free of charge to the public, fairly distributed and based on need. A first step would be to support South Africa and India's proposal to the World Trade Organization Council this week to waive intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines, tests and treatments until everyone is protected.

Steve Cockburn, Amnesty International's Head of Economic and Social Justice, said: "The hoarding of vaccines actively undermines global efforts to ensure that everyone, everywhere can be protected from COVID-19. Rich countries have clear human rights obligations not only to refrain from actions that could harm access to vaccines elsewhere, but also to cooperate and provide assistance to countries that need it.

"By buying up the vast majority of the world's vaccine supply, rich countries are in breach of their human rights obligations. Instead, by working with others to share knowledge and scale up supply, they could help bring an end to the global COVID-19 crisis."

The vaccines developed by AstraZeneca/Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech have received more than $5 billion dollars of public funding, which the alliance said placed a responsibility on them to act in the global public interest.

Dr Mohga Kamal Yanni, from the People's Vaccine Alliance, said: "Rich countries have enough doses to vaccinate everyone nearly three times over, whilst poor countries don't have enough to even reach health workers and people at risk.

"The current system, where pharmaceutical corporations use government funding for research, retain exclusive rights and keep their technology secret to boost profits, could cost many lives."

Lois Chingandu, Director of Frontline AIDS, said: "This pandemic is a global problem that requires a global solution. The global economy will continue to suffer so long as much of the world does not have access to a vaccine.

"We need to put pharmaceutical industry profit aside during this unprecedented pandemic, both to save humanity and the economy."

Momentum is mounting for a People's vaccine, which has already been backed by COVID survivors, health experts, activists, past and present world leaders, faith leaders and economists including Cyril Ramaphosa, Imran Khan, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Gordon Brown, Helen Clark, Mary Robinson, Joseph Stiglitz, John Nkengasong and Thomas Piketty.

Last month in the US, more than 100 high-level leaders from public health, faith-based, racial justice, and labor organizations, joined former members of Congress, economists and artists to sign a public letter calling on President-elect Biden seize on this extraordinary moment and power of the US President to support a People's Vaccine.

The 67 countries are: Afghanistan, Angola, Algeria, Benin, Bhutan, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Eswatini, Gambia, Ghana, The Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kenya, Kiribati, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Micronesia, Moldova, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Timor Leste, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Ukraine, Vanuatu, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.