Coronavirus
Technology Solutions
November 9, 2020
CATE Market will be Determined by Life Quality
Perceptions
Activated Carbon for Masks and Filters
WFI will be Holding its WFI 2020 Conference on
December 15, 16
Coronavirus Cases Rise to New Records
Biden Victory Means an Aggressive Mask Program
will be Pursued
______________________________________________________________________________
CATE Market will be Determined by Life Quality
Perceptions
McIlvaine is predicting a CATE mask market of up
to $600 billion in 2022. This is much larger
than any other filtration market. In fact it is
much larger than all the other filtration
markets combined. The accuracy of this
prediction depends on life quality perceptions.
You have many people refusing to wear masks due
to negative life quality perceptions. You have
others equating
the life quality impact of loose fitting
inefficient masks with CATE masks.
Since the $600 billion number is so large it is
hard to imagine that the forecast is realistic.
On the other hand the pandemic is creating
economic losses measured in tens of trillions of
dollars. It is also causing negative life
quality impacts greater than any event since
World War II. Another life quality yardstick is
the market for sports footwear. Because of
perceived life quality impacts purchasers are
spending $400 billion per year for shoes that
are ten times more costly than functional
equivalents.
CATE is an acronym for Comfortable, Attractive,
Tight fitting, Efficient. The only way to
measure the comfortable and attractive market
drivers is based on life quality impacts. The
challenge is how to quantify and predict these
impacts.
Fortunately there is a good quantification
system. McIlvaine entered a yearlong contract
with one of the world’s largest suppliers of
medical supplies to determine whether reusable
or single use surgical gowns were the best
choice for a hospital. It was determined that a
new metric was needed to measure all harm and
good. This was developed by McIlvaine and is
called Quality Enhanced Life Days (QELD).
It was not only used for this contract
but found receptivity in the medical world. Here
is a link to a feature article on it in
Healthcare Development Magazine.
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Decision_Tree/subscriber/Masks/QELD/Quality_Enhanced_Life_Days.htm
Most sustainability rating tools rely third
party determination of political and social
impacts of any decision. QELD is straight
forward and most valuable because it represents
the actual life quality choices being made by
the group impacted by the decision. If a
majority of the group believes that allowing the
elderly to die at an accelerated rate is worth
the life quality benefits of mask avoidance,
then this will be reflected in the QELD rating.
A group is defined as eligible voters.
In the U.S and most other countries the majority
would not want to sacrifice the elderly for
minor discomfort. This is not a black and white
moral determination. It is instead a complex
balance between the selfish interests of a small
group and the realization that there needs to be
accommodation to other small groups or
civilization will disintegrate in class warfare.
However, this same group will send its sons to
war knowing that a number will not return.
The basis of QELD is that people would rather
live only 80 years, socialize and eat ice cream
rather
than to 100 as risk adverse hermits. The group
would rather raise the speed limit to 65 mph
knowing that it statistically will shorten their
lives by a day or two for the life quality
benefits of shorter travel times.
The benefit of this approach is that the life
quality preferences can be determined from past
and present activities. It starts with
activities which actually impact life span.
Driving two hours to see a football game will
shorten your life by a few minutes. If you would
avoid wearing a mask for a month
in
exchange for giving up the football game then
you have placed a QELD value of a few minutes on
the mask avoidance.
So one hand we have established a QELD value of
a few minutes of life for mask avoidance. But in
a high positivity environment the threats to the
life of the wearer and his family may be more
than just a few minutes of life span.
The other consideration is that the avoidance of
masks by the individual can have negative life
quality impacts for other members of the group.
We set speed limits to not only protect the
driver but others. But if the individual wants
to climb Mount Everest there is no law to
prevent him from doing so.
Insights on the future mask market can be gained
by substantial effort to quantify and even shape
the life quality impacts of wearing masks. The
fact that CATE masks are both comfortable and
attractive is very important in assessing life
quality impacts. The negative health life
quality risks need to be determined for all the
different combinations of variables. They
include general variables such as
·
Immunity percent in the group
·
testing activity
·
virus positivity testing percent
·
ambient air pollution and wildfires
They include individual variables
·
age and
health
·
environment
o
residence
o
travel
o
work
o
leisure time
In the U.S. and many other countries we have
large segments of the population who resent
government interference in their masking
choices. The value of the QELD approach is that
it is only reflecting the better informed
choices the individual would want to make based
on his present and past life quality choices.
The anti-mask people are citing examples such as
the NYC regulation prohibiting the sale of soft
drinks in 24 oz cups. This is not a good example
because it only impacts the life quality of the
individual drinker.
The argument for wide spread use of CATE masks
is less persuasive as we move past the pandemic.
The market could rise to $600 billion per year
and then shrink to $100 billion or even much
less in future years. Even if it dropped to $10
billion per year it would still be a very
attractive market. The past CATE mask market has
been focused on purchasers concerned about air
pollution, wild fires, pollen, and mold.
If people are fully informed about life quality
impacts of various mask types there could be a
$600 billion market for CATE masks at a high
virus load level. If we continue at the present
high virus levels but are ignorant of the mask
alternatives and benefits the CATE market will
be smaller than either the disposable or the
cloth market which will average about $11/yr for
each of the 8 billion people on earth.
Even in a worst case scenario it is unlikely
that the market will shrink to pre COVID levels.
In many Asian countries the courtesy mask has
become common. This is likely to become a world
wide life quality enhancement. The lack of a
mask may someday be equated with spitting on the
sidewalk.
At high virus load (High V) the negative life
quality impacts are high compared to any
negative life quality impacts of wearing masks
such as discomfort or unattractiveness. However
at low virus loads uncomfortable and
unattractive mask life quality impacts may
outweigh the benefits in the minds of the
wearer. On the other hand comfortable and
attractive (CA)
masks have lower negative life quality
impacts than the virus (Low V).
The benefits of requiring CATE masks to any
visitor to a hospital or nursing home are clear.
Mask wearing during air or subway travel
is likely to remain.
The market for CATE masks has been largely
driven by those with health problems or those
living in cities with high levels of air
pollution. Wild fires are now expanding this
market.
The future threat of
viruses is unknown. What is known is the
large number of deaths and hospitalizations from
influenza. The market for hand sanitizers has
soared. Masks are a much better option to
protect from viruses. There is already evidence
that vaccines will offer no more protection
against COVID than they do against influenza.
One reason is the continuing mutation.
Just last week Denmark decided to destroy
18 million mink when it was found that they had
COVID and potentially could infect humans with a
mutant form of the virus which the conventional
vaccines would not be able to stop.
This pandemic has proved the dangers of an
interconnected world. The virus started with bat
to human transmission in Wuhan but quickly
spread to Europe. The U.S. initially thought
that all the transmission was from China.
New York later learned that its cases had
European origin.
Activated Carbon for Masks and Filters
Coconut shells represent one of the newest and
most promising options for activated carbon
block filters. The density of micro-pores is
much higher in coconut than in other forms of
activated carbon, meaning it has more surface
area and more general porosity. By way of
comparison, it contains 50 percent more
micro-pores than bituminous coal. This makes
coconut better able to adsorb volatile organic
chemicals, which are otherwise difficult to
remove from water.
Coconut shell carbon’s purity also makes it
a better candidate for activated carbon. Whereas
other carbons can contribute taste due to
inorganic ash, coconut contains a relatively low
amount. This creates a more consistent, uniform
and non-leaching carbon block that outperforms
other options in terms of quality.
Manufacturing coconut shell activated carbon is
also easier. Coal and wood both produce
significant amounts of dust and fine carbon
particles, while coconut produces less of these
potential contaminants. Due to this lack of
dust, and to the fact that coconut harvesting is
a year-round, renewable activity that does not
kill trees, this can be considered a green
method of obtaining activated carbon.
WFI will be Holding its WFI 2020 Conference on
December 15, 16
There will be 16 speakers over the two days.
Bob McIlvaine will speak on the first day
as will Abishek Saha of the University of
California -San Diego. He will provide more
details on the evaporation of droplets initially
caught in masks. He was a presenter in a
previous McIlvaine webinar. In his speech he
will show how improperly designed masks can have
negative effects on ultimate transmission.
Hunter Most of AAF will address the new paradigm
in the HVAC industry as building owners
treat the filter selection as critical to
the building operation.
Joe Gorman of Camfil will address the
unprecedented growth in in higher efficiency
filter demand.
For more information contact
Dr. Christine Sun| President |
Waterloo Filtration Institute | Phone:
866-546-0688x 111 |
www.wfinstitute.com
Head Office: 150 Bridgeland Avenue, Suite 101,
Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M6A 1Z5
csun@wfinstitute.com
Coronavirus Cases Rise to New Records
Saturday was supposed to see the University of
Virginia’s football team face off against
Louisville — but then the coronavirus got
in the way. Nine players on Louisville’s team
had already been sickened. Then several more
fell ill, with seven going into quarantine. The
game was postponed.
In central Massachusetts, 150 cases of the
coronavirus have been linked to the Crossroads
Community Church in Fitchburg. “Videos and
photos posted to Crossroads’ public Facebook
page in weeks prior didn’t seem to show anyone
social distancing or wearing masks,” one
news report said.
Counties across Northern California moved to
implement new
restrictions,
with officials warning of “widespread”
transmission “across the state.”
And in Amarillo, Texas, a kindergartner
reportedly died
of COVID-19,
the disease caused by the coronavirus. In
Missouri, the disease claimed
the life of
an election poll worker.
The coronavirus pandemic that has killed more
than a quarter million Americans did not take a
break for last weekend’s Halloween holiday, nor
for the presidential election that followed, nor
for the subsequent days of political turmoil
that continued into this weekend.
Nor has the frustratingly resilient pathogen
shown much sympathy for Americans’ growing
weariness, their desire to see schools and
businesses reopen, for unremitting talk of
“social distancing” and “learning pods” to be
relegated to a distant memory.
If anything, the virus appears to be
strengthening, killing more than 1,000 Americans
every day this week while recording more than
100,000 daily infections. More than 50,000
people across the nation are hospitalized.
The share of coronavirus diagnostic tests coming
back positive has
risen to 8.2 percent this week; last week’s
share of positive tests was a markedly lower 7.2
percent.
“The numbers are pretty scary,” says Dr. Peter
Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical
Medicine at Baylor, taking stock of the national
situation. As he was speaking to Yahoo News on
Thursday, the nation was on its way to a record
133,000 new cases for that day. Hospitalizations
have been rapidly climbing too, leading
to concerns that we may once more see what we
saw during the spring and early summer: crowded
intensive care units, overwhelmed hospitals,
deaths that could have been prevented.
“It’s a slaughter,” Hotez said. “We’re going to
have to take steps.
Biden Victory Means an Aggressive Mask Program
will be Pursued
President-elect Joe Biden’s victory signals a
turning point in the U.S. response to the
coronavirus pandemic, as he promises a newly
aggressive federal effort to contain a virus
that is spiking nationwide in contrast to a
president who has consistently downplayed the
outbreak’s dangers and promised it would
disappear.
But while the president-elect can begin to lay
the groundwork for a more muscular approach and
a vastly different messaging campaign than
President Donald Trump, Biden will have to wait
until he is officially inaugurated on Jan. 20 to
put any of those plans into place.
Still, Biden’s transition team has been working
for months on how to coordinate federal agencies
to execute the plans Biden outlined months ago.
The proposals include a national mask mandate --
although Biden has acknowledged that would be
difficult to enforce except on federal property.
“I will bring together Republicans and Democrats
to deliver economic relief to working families,
schools, and businesses,” Biden said in St.
Paul, Minnesota, on Oct. 30. “As I’ve said
before, I’m not going to shut down the economy.
I’m going to shut down the virus.”
Biden released a plan to combat the coronavirus
that says its aim is to restore trust, create a
cohesive national strategy, make treatments
affordable, provide economic relief to those
impacted by the virus and work with other
countries to combat the spread.
Biden said he would restore the White House
National Security Council Directorate for Global
Health Security and Biodefense, which the Trump
administration had folded into another office at
the NSC.
He also plans to provide a daily public White
House report on how many tests have been
conducted, expand surveillance programs by the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control, instruct
federal agencies to take action to expand
America’s hospital capacity and expand tele-health
capabilities across the country.
The plan also says federal health agencies will
collaborate on vaccine development, establish a
public health corps to assist with testing and
contract tracing, and fully fund and expand
authority for the National Disaster Medical
System to reimburse providers for Covid-19
treatment costs that are not directly covered by
health insurance.
The virus is likely to intensify in the cold
months between the election and inauguration so
Biden’s administration will have to be ready to
address a fluid situation immediately. So while
he cannot yet act, Biden and his team will spend
the next several weeks gathering information
about the Trump administration’s response and
ensuring they are ready to implement Biden’s
plans after he takes the oath of office.
“A lot is going to depend on how we’re doing,”
Ezekiel Emanuel, a former top health adviser to
the Obama administration, said in an interview
before Election Day. “Most of us, the
physicians, public-health community fear that
we’re going to have outbreaks in large numbers
because of people going inside” as the weather
cools.
Biden has been urging Americans to heed the
advice of scientists and public health experts
since the onset of the pandemic in March, and
advisers said he made a strategic decision early
on to model his presidential campaign in line
with his beliefs about how a president should
behave in a crisis. He spent most of the early
months of the pandemic campaigning from his
basement in Wilmington, and once he resumed
in-person events, he strictly followed social
distancing and masking guidelines.
“We are going to beat this virus. We are going
to get it under control,” Biden said last week
in Flint, Michigan. “And the first step to
beating it is to beat Donald Trump.”
Now that he has beat Trump, Biden advisers say
he will bring that approach to the White House.
But after months of criticizing the president,
the Biden will face the complex challenge of
bringing a divided country together to fight the
virus.
“They’ve got to build a coalition of churches,
of nonprofits, of the business community, to
reinforce the mask message,” said Florida
Representative Donna Shalala, who ran the
Department of Health and Human Services under
Bill Clinton.
Shalala, in an interview before she lost her
re-election bid this week, also said Biden
should work to restore confidence and trust in
federal scientists and civil servants.
“I think he should go up
to NIH on his first day, and he should go
down to CDC, and liberate them,” she said. “I
think that symbolism is really important.”
Ultimately, though, one of the Biden
administration’s most important and complicated
tasks will be figuring out how to get eventual
coronavirus vaccines to the public. Advisers
started developing plans to distribute a vaccine
even before the election, and for months they
have been monitoring the Trump administration’s
effort to deliver a drug for signs of political
interference, according to two Biden advisers.
In particular, Biden’s health team, many of whom
worked in the administration of President Barack
Obama, have been leveraging their decades-long
relationships with U.S. government officials to
keep tabs on Trump’s initiative to deliver a
vaccine in record time. Now, the team will get
much more information about the progress that
has been made.
The advisers involved in the effort include some
of the officials who oversaw pandemics and
preparedness in the Obama administration. Among
them are Nicole Lurie, the former assistant
secretary for preparedness and response under
Obama; Vivek Murthy, the former U.S. surgeon
general and David Kessler, a former commissioner
of the Food and Drug Administration.
The incoming administration must also anticipate
logistical challenges like ensuring adequate
supply of glass vials and syringes, for example,
and prepare to address them immediately.
“Where are the bottlenecks that will need to be
addressed come January 20?” Emanuel said,
outlining the areas the transition team will
focus on in the coming weeks.
