A Proactive Filtration Industry can Vanquish COVID and Boost Revenues by Hundreds of Billions of Dollars

Carrier White Paper is a Guide to Air Conditioning and Ventilation to Combat COVID

Ambrust American has Delivery Problems

Microwave can Sterilize N95 Masks

Lots of Decontamination Investigations

Lysol Approved as a Disinfectant for COVID

Wipes Demand Still Exceeds Supply

OZ Health Contracts with Oerlikon for Spunbond and Meltblown Plant

U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Rising and Large Numbers are Predicted

The Relationship Between Viral Load and Air Transmission

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A Proactive Filtration Industry can Vanquish COVID and Boost Revenues by Hundreds of Billions of Dollars

Even though COVID travels as small aerosols it is not invincible. It is just a matter of choosing the right weapons. The filtration industry has developed and is improving these weapons. If the filtration industry is proactive these weapons will be available in the quantity and time frame needed. The evidence continues to mount that asymptomatic individuals transmit the virus just by talking or breathing. What is needed is to treat the COVID space as one big cleanroom or one big air pollution stack. Semiconductor cleanrooms and waste to energy plants remove 99.99 % of particles in the virus size range.

If every transmitter and every recipient wore a mask as efficient as a cleanroom or air pollution filter there would not be a problem. Back in the 1960s the major air pollution source was foundry cupolas. There were no national regulations. In fact there was no EPA. But States passed  regulations to prevent the emission of the large particles that fell on nearby cars and destroyed the paint. So an inefficient device called a multi tube cyclone was mandated.  It worked well.  The big particles were captured and the small particles were invisible and  blown down wind  into the next State.

A cloth face mask is the equivalent of the multi tube cyclone. It is efficient on 100 micron particles but captures little below 10 microns. Today every foundry cupola has efficient filters with nonwovens or membranes with efficiencies exceeding an N95 mask. By wearing no masks or inefficient masks we are blowing the virus downwind.

Another challenge in operating a foundry cupola is fumes which may escape through the charging door. This is solved by good engineering which assures a flow of inward air at a velocity sufficient to overcome turbulence within the cupola. Air velocity and direction are also important in the transmission of COVID.

We used foundry cupolas as an example. But the challenges in a semiconductor or pharmaceutical cleanroom are much greater and have been met with very robust technology solutions. Now is the time for the filtration industry to use its capability and take a proactive stance to solve the COVID problem.

The rewards will be immense. The difference between a reactive and proactive program is hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue in 2021. With a proactive program the air filter and room air purifier sales will increase by $60 billion per year. Mask and respirator sales will increase by over $155 billion per year.  Disinfection, wipes, monitoring, and anti-microbial  coating revenues will increase by over $60 billion per year.

In the reactive program the decisions are made by governments and researchers. In a proactive program the filtration industry becomes a full partner and leader. The position by governments that efficient masks were not needed by the public represents a failure by the filtration industry to communicate the basic knowledge which it has.

This basic knowledge has led from the simplistic concept of one large semiconductor or pharmaceutical cleanroom with all the air of the same purity to a concept of many progressively cleaner rooms within the main room.

The new classifications are more complex and deal with particles of various sizes. The older classification suffices as an illustration. It is based on particles 0.5 micron and larger.  Relatively clean ambient air is rated at class 500,000 or 500,000 particles in each cubic foot of air. When a few HEPA filters are added you can achieve class 100,000. Many semiconductor operators opt for lots of class 10,000 space with class 1 space for the most critical operations. Pharmaceutical manufacturers opt for class 10,000 general space with class 100 space for vial filling operations.  Isolators with class 1 rating are used for the most critical operations. The COVID battle plan can use the same concept.

The world is one big cleanroom in a pyramid of smaller spaces. Each local space has its own more restrictive efficiency criteria and then the individual represents the smallest cleanroom within the pyramid.

Class 500,000:  Let’s start with the class 500,000 cleanroom or ambient air. The problem is that the ambient air at traffic intersections in the cleanest cities and the air throughout many cities  and even the rural areas in many countries contains many millions of 0.5 micron particles per cubic foot. This is why Germany is supplying ambient air filtration systems at some traffic intersections. This is why in India, China, and many other countries efficient masks are worn by many citizens.

Small air pollution particles are not stopped by cloth masks. So there is already a large market for efficient masks in many countries. The masks which stop small dust particles will also capture the small virus particles. In fact research in the Lombardy region in Italy as well as other studies show that the virus can be attached to air pollution particles.

The need to protect against the air pollutants will be there long after a vaccine to prevent COVID is made available and will be there until the next virus comes along. This means that the filtration industry has the promise of a large and continuing revenue stream in the Class 500,000 space.

The individual  is the ultimate cleanroom within a cleanroom. He can change the cleanroom class in the air around him with a mask. When he is far from others, he may be safe with no mask and willing to breathe in the 500,000 particles with every cubic foot inhaled.

Class 100,000: Many industries making small parts operate in class 100,000 cleanrooms. Food processing plants strive to keep general space at this cleanliness level. Pork processing plants have found that the shelf life of their product is increased by more than one week if they have cleaner air in the production facilities. The combination of improved HVAC and filtration combined with the use of efficient masks would eliminate much of the virus transmission  presently occurring in these facilities. Partitions without air control can make matters worse not better.

The general space in hospitals should be at least class 100,000.  Hospital acquired infections result in millions of deaths per year. Visitors  account for some of this transmission. PathO3Gen Solutions found that their foot sanitizer used by all those entering a hospital makes a big difference.

Train stations, airline terminals, nursing homes, apartment complexes, office buildings and other areas of congregation should be kept in this class range. The air in many office buildings contains VOCs generated from plastic furniture, floor coverings etc. Efficient masks are needed in these areas but in addition relatively pure air should be provided.

An N30 mask will insure maintenance of a class 100,000 atmosphere but in situations where people congregate the individual should convert his inhaled air to class 100 with an N95 mask.

Class 10,000:  There have been initiatives to eliminate pharmaceutical and semiconductor class 10,000 space.  Since people generate the contamination, the concept was to use isolators and robotics and keep people out of the production space. In practice some human intervention is necessary and no matter how well sealed a class l cleanroom is it helps if it is surrounded by relatively clean air.

This principle can be applied to COVID. Luxury hotels are  willing to spend lots of money to make their accommodations safe. In addition to requiring guests to wear masks it can create general space with class 100,000 air purity. Elevators, gyms, and restrooms can be designed as  class 10,000 space.

In the case of an individual you have a twostep process  Step 1 is filtering out viruses being transmitted. Step 2 is filtering out viruses being inhaled.

Step 1 can be the filter in an HVAC system or it can be a mask. In each case the amount of virus inhaled is a function of the combined efficiency

For example if the transmitter and recipient each have N95 masks then the virus inhaled by the recipient is only 0.25 percent.

 Compare this to the N30 mask where the combination results in the recipient inhaling 49 percent of the virus.

 A MERV 13 filter in an HVAC system can provide a 30 percent reduction in viruses or equivalent to an N30 Mask. So if you have a building with MERV 13 filters providing 10 or more air changes per hour to each space and if each transmitter and recipient wears N30 masks  the virus level is  reduced in three steps. Seventy percent is reduced in the first step another 21 percent reduced in the second step and another 15 percent in the third step leaving 35 percent of the virus to be inhaled.

Let’s take the example of a hotel elevator with a HEPA filter delivering class 10,000 air. The transmitter rides to his floor but is wearing an N30 mask  So the elevator air contains only 70 percent of the virus from the transmitter. The elevator HVAC system removes 95 percent of the virus leaving only 3.5 percent in the elevator when the recipient enters. He is wearing an N30 mask so he inhales only 1.2 percent of the potential transmission.

If a HEPA filter is installed in a robust HVAC system and laminar air flow prevents the transmitter from directly exhaling to the recipient then 99 percent of the virus is captured even if the recipient has no mask. In reality it is prohibitively expensive to create a space with the ceiling covered with HEPA filters discharging at 100 fpm and air return systems below a perforated floor. So some air will flow from transmitter to recipient without being first filtered.

So the recipient will be contaminated by the general viral load plus any virus  from a transmitter circumventing the HVAC system.

Class 1000 to Class 1: Drug preparation areas of hospitals are often designed for class 1000 but with class 100 enclosures around actual filling operations. Isolation rooms in hospitals are designed to be class 100 but also to be under negative pressure.

The decision to invest in a class 10 or class 1 space is a function of risks to products or people. When applying  this to COVID it is a consideration of risk to the general population as opposed to the risks to a specific individual. N30 masks may be sufficient to reduce the number of cases in the general population. But if the new cases are 100 today and 99 tomorrow it is not positive news for the 99. If by wearing N95 masks the new cases drop from 100 to 5 this is very positive for 95 individuals.

The weapons to fight COVID are reduced levels of virus in the local space plus reduction from individual transmitters and efficient elimination of viruses by the inhaling recipient. Every cleanroom operator would prefer to operate in a class 1 space but the cost exceeds the value in most cases. So there is always a risk. Whether it is pharmaceutical products, chips, or individuals the risk and rewards need to be analyzed and the proper level of investment made.

Information on Coronavirus Technology Solutions is found at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/82ai-coronavirus-market-intelligence

Information on relevant market reports is found at www.mcilvainecompany.com  and then click on markets.                              

 

Carrier White Paper is a Guide to Air Conditioning and Ventilation to Combat COVID

Carrier has published a white paper relative to COVID and  air conditioning. It  reviews the Chinese restaurant incident which has been covered in previous Alerts. It makes the point that air distribution was the culprit and not the use of AC. It  cites no trace of virus on the AC  duct. On the other hand other studies show deposits in HVAC systems. In fact Carrier has anti-microbial  coatings for duct interiors. Also since Carrier is now offering HEPA filtered room air purifiers for schools and other gathering places, the value of high efficiency filtration is communicated.  Here is a summary and link to the white paper.

ASHRAE guidelines point to an upper limit of air velocity in the occupied space of 40 fpm. To achieve this condition, the air needs to be properly blown by the HVAC system into the room, and properly distributed in the occupied space.

A generation of research and experience has proven that when properly maintained and operated, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems (HVAC) can reduce the spread of viruses. These critical building systems not only provide thermal comfort but, according to the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE), may also improve resistance to infection.

HVAC systems work in a built environment to supply comfortable, clean, recaptured air, mix in healthy levels of fresh air, and contain or exhaust contaminants. Air delivery systems can reduce the transmission of viruses through inline filtration, something HVAC professionals are capable of assessing. Air-conditioning systems are also critical in maintaining healthy humidity levels. “Maintaining a RH (relative humidity) between 40% and 60% indoors may help to limit the spread and survival of SARS-CoV-2 within the BE,” the ASM suggests, “while minimizing the risk of mold growth and maintaining hydrated and intact mucosal barriers of human occupants.” The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) echoes these findings, saying that employers can decrease the spread of COVID-19 by maintaining a healthy work environment. “Consider improving and engineering controls using the building ventilation system,” the CDC suggests, including increased ventilation rates and increased percentage of outdoor air circulating through the system. Well before COVID-19, the Healthy Building Movement had begun to measure and improve air quality in the built environment to improve productivity and health. Of the nine foundations for a healthy building, five relate to HVAC, including air quality, ventilation, thermal health, moisture, dust and pests. “There’s just no reason anymore to economize on airflow and filtration,” Harvard Business School’s John Macomber says. “It’s a cheap way to help people be healthier.

To ensure the proper indoor air purity, a good HVAC system should include some or all of the following:

1. (Demand Controlled) Ventilation: When outside air is not provided via separate devices, the HVAC system should provide outside air based on the size/use of the space. Where possible, the HVAC system should include a sensor for carbon dioxide or other pollutants to calculate and correct in real time the amount of ventilation needed. It is important to be aware that the increase of the ventilation rate may cause an increase of load, and the HVAC unit, if not properly sized, may not be able to provide sufficient cooling capacity. In such situations, it may be appropriate to consider Direct Outdoor Air Supply (DOAS) units, which are specifically designed for large amounts of outside air.

 2. Filtration: Filters are rated on their ability to capture and retain particles of different sizes. The industry standard is a Minimum Efficiency Reporting Value (MERV) rating. Filters with MERV >13 have a significant ability to capture particulate matter (PM) and smaller particles. HEPA filters are even more efficient and are able to capture bacteria and viruses. Note that there are important tradeoffs to consider: the higher the filtration requirements, the greater the air pressure drop and the size of the filter. For this reason, the air management system of the HVAC needs to be carefully sized based on the filtration requirements.

3. Other Indoor Air Quality Devices: Numerous technologies are available to reduce the presence of contaminants. Ultraviolet lights, ultraviolet photocatalytic oxidation, ionization, plasma, electrostatic active, active carbon and other components can be installed to specifically target volatile organic compounds (VOC), bacteria and viruses. Some of these options can be available as integral parts of the HVAC system.

https://www.shareddocs.com/hvac/docs/1001/Public/02/COVID-19-WHITE-PAPER.pdf

 

Ambrust American has Delivery Problems

Friday, we reported on the big Texas school order for the company. The company has also offered masks to the public but had  delivery problems. Lloyd Armbrust, the founder said, “ we set up a website really fast, and we just made so many mistakes.”

Armbrust tells KXAN there were logistical and technical problems that led to shipping delays. That’s in addition to the large number of orders the company received for masks.

Armbrust says he set an order limit of one purchase per customer, but not on the total volume of orders received. The company received 1.6 million orders in the week after the KXAN  story aired.

In a sense, Armbrust American began suffering from its own success.

“I didn’t really appreciate the amount of effort that it takes for something to arrive magically on my doorstep,” he said.

Bonnie Bryce was one of the customers who watched the story, and ordered 50 masks from the company.

“I’m 67 years old and I had heart surgery in February,” she told us over the phone Tuesday. “So my cardiologist advised me to be diligent about wearing a mask.”

After placing her order on May 20, she received a confirmation email, but nothing after that.

Many customers have found themselves in a similar situation. KXAN received a number of concerns from people, asking about the company and when they would get their masks.

Still more people reached out to Armbrust American directly. We found a number of negative reviews and posts about the delays on social media.

“I thought maybe he got overwhelmed a little bit,” said Bryce. After our interview Tuesday, Armbrust informed us that Bryce’s order was shipped, with a few extra masks thrown in.

Ultimately, millions of masks had been sitting in the factory the entire time.

The company’s automated machines can make 100 masks a minute. The delays instead came with packing, sealing and shipping.

Armbrust explained that automated machines cannot seal and pack the masks without bending them. Therefore, people have to do it.

He says it used to take 10 minutes to box up 50 masks, but the company is now able to do it in 30 seconds.

Armbrust says the original promise was to ship the masks to customers one week after they’d placed the order.

He realized quickly he wouldn’t be able to make that deadline, due to the huge demand. He says he sent a video out to customers explaining the situation late last month but believes many people didn’t get the message.

“I think the lesson is, when you start a company, you need to make sure you have your supply chain ironed out before you go on television,” said Bryce.

Armbrust agrees.

“I’d say the biggest thing I learned was setting the proper expectations for people, and to really understand the entire picture,” he said.

The company is trying to catch up now. Armbrust says he is prioritizing orders for healthcare workers and people more vulnerable to COVID-19, which is caused by the coronavirus.

He added that all orders out of Texas would be shipped out this week, but also understands if people cancel their order.

Over the last couple of weeks, the only option has been to pre-order masks, while the company catches up. Those orders were to go out starting July 1.

 

Microwave can Sterilize N95 Masks

 A recent study from the American Society for Microbiology offers a new decontamination tool that is much more accessible and affordable: a microwave. Researcher James E. Kirby, MD, from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center of Harvard says the study’s findings are crucial to the many health care centers that lack the high-capacity sterilization systems of large hospitals.

“We knew there was a critical shortage of personal protective gear and N95 masks, and we knew there was a need for a solution,” he says.

The team of eight researchers set out to provide an easy disinfection method to different health care settings including “outpatient practices, frontline providers, and remote clinical settings.”

“The goal of this work was to identify a widely accessible, microwave-generated steam decontamination method,” the article says. “To this effect, we utilized only common household items.”

The materials include water, a glass container, mesh, a rubber band, and a 1,100- or 1,150-watt microwave. The researchers filled the container with 60 milliliters of water, then secured the mesh material over the top of it with a rubber band. They then placed the N95 mask on the mesh and microwaved it for 3 minutes. This effectively killed all viruses, including coronavirus, they say.

“It’s simple, but sometimes very simple things work well,” Kirby says.

The researchers found that this sterilization method could be repeated 20 times on a single N95 mask without damage. Even though the type of mask they used had a metal piece, they didn’t have an issue with it heating or sparking during the 20 cycles of testing, Kirby said.

Though the study was done with health care settings in mind, Kirby doesn’t see the harm in trying the same method at home.

A recent USA Today opinion piece by ICU specialists Pierre Kory, MD, and Paul H. Mayo, MD, reinforces the importance of N95s as coronavirus rates increase. Their stance is grounded on emerging evidence showing that coronavirus may be transmitted via aerosol droplets.

“The only mask that can prevent aerosol-size droplet inhalation is an N95,” the authors say.

Due to the shortage of N95s available to health care workers, many people are wearing cloth masks, which can be decontaminated in the washer. But more people may turn to N95 masks as more research emerges about the pandemic’s transmission.

 

Lots of Decontamination Investigations

Bloomberg has summarized a number of investigations into mask decontamination.

Richard Peltier, an aerosol chemist and associate professor at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, is researching the effectiveness of different decontamination methods and how many cycles a mask can go through before its filtering abilities drop below the N95 respirator’s required threshold. The research is funded by the National Science Foundation.

To meet the government’s N95 designation, a mask must filter out at least 95% of particles that are 300 nanometers or larger—enough to trap a single coronavirus.

Peltier said he first started looking at whether a decontaminated N95 mask continued to be effective at the request of a local hospital that was considering exposing masks to a gas—vaporized hydrogen peroxide—a process often used to sterilize medical equipment.

Using a device that measures whether an N95 mask is filtering out the microscopic particles, Peltier said he confirmed the mask was still functioning after one decontamination cycle.

That led to the NSF project where Peltier evaluated masks that had gone through the vaporized hydrogen peroxide process or several other decontamination methods through up to 10 cycles.

The study is undergoing peer review, Peltier said, and he can’t yet discuss his conclusions. However, he did say some sterilization methods did lower masks’ effectiveness below the N95 threshold.

Companies manufacturing N95 respirators and performing the decontamination work also have been looking at the effectiveness of N95 masks after multiple sterilizations.

Dr. Nikki McCullough, a health and occupational safety leader in 3M’s Personal Safety Division, said 3M has evaluated some of its masks after decontamination to determine through how many cycles a mask stays effective.

3M has approved masks going through up to 20 cycles. The limits are updated regularly in a bulletin 3M publishes.

McCullough cautioned that other factors must be considered on whether a mask is still protective. “The number of cycles that a particular respirator will withstand will depend on how many times it has been donned, stored and duration and conditions of use,” she said.

If a user can’t get the mask to form a proper seal on the user’s face, the mask shouldn’t be worn, McCullough said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published guidance for the maximum number of times N95 masks can be sterilized using a wide range of methods from steam heat generated inside a microwave oven to exposing the masks to ultraviolet light.

The largest decontamination effort is overseen by Battelle Memorial Institute, an Ohio nonprofit company.

Will Richter, a microbiologist and principal research scientist with Battelle, said the company has decontaminated about 1.2 million N95 masks at centers across the nation.

In April, Battelle was awarded a contract from the Defense Department, worth up to $415 million, to open and operate 60 decontamination centers that would sterilize respirators sent by health-care providers.

Richter said Battelle found that 20 different models of N95 mask, and 10 foreign-made masks, remain effective through 20 cycles. The company has also cooperated with 3M and the CDC’s National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to evaluate the Battelle system.

Battelle’s systems use vaporized hydrogen peroxide. Each system can sterilize about 5,000 masks at a time in a process that takes about 24 hours, Richter said.

While the CDC has approved Battelle’s methods for up to 20 sterilization cycles, Richter said, the company has its own quality controls. Masks that are stained, often from makeup, or otherwise appear soiled, aren’t processed. Also pulled out are masks with apparent material flaws such as broken straps.

After a batch of masks has been decontaminated and “air washed” to allow residual gas to dissipate, workers use gas detectors to determine if the amount of hydrogen peroxide gas is below the OSHA permissible exposure limit, Richter said. The OSHA limit is 1.0 parts per million, but Battelle enforces a stricter limit, 0.8 parts per million.

Of the 1.2 million masks Battelle has processed and returned, the company has received complaints about fewer than 0.5% of the masks, Richter said.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/safety/decontaminating-covid-19-masks-raises-safety-efficacy-concerns

 

Lysol Approved as a Disinfectant for COVID

Lysol is the first surface disinfectant approved by the Environmental Protection Agency to wipe out the coronavirus. 

Two versions of the common household disinfectant spray were lab tested by the agency, which found they could kill the virus on surfaces, the EPA announced. Lysol Disinfectant Spray, priced at $4.18 at Walmart, and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist, priced at $5.48, can kill the virus in under 2 minutes, the agency found. 

"The EPA's approval recognizes that using Lysol Disinfectant Spray can help to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on hard, non-porous surfaces," said Rahul Kadyan, executive vice president of hygiene for Lysol's parent company Reckitt Benckiser in a statement.

"In the face of the pandemic, Lysol continues to work with a wide range of scientific and health experts to educate the public on the importance of hygiene.

In March, the EPA released a lengthy list of household cleaners that were expected to be effective against coronavirus because they have been tested and proven to work against similar viruses. The news sent the products flying off shelves, leading to shortages at many local grocery stores. 

Many supermarkets still limit the number of cleaning supplies people can buy to cut down on hoarding. Supply chain experts previously told USA TODAY that manufacturers like Lysol and Clorox weren't ready for a flood of Americans suddenly shopping for disinfectant.

 

Wipes Demand Still Exceeds Supply

“This is unprecedented demand in modern times for products like disinfecting wipes,” says Brian Sansoni, senior vice president, Communications, Outreach & Membership for The American Cleaning Institute (ACI), a U.S.-based trade association for the cleaning products industry. “Manufacturers have been working around the clock as they are able to get as many workers in there—working safely as well, as the safety of the workforce is paramount.”

Based on reports and analysis from manufacturers, the ACI estimates that consumers will begin to see a more regular supply of products like disinfectant wipes in mid-summer.

Major manufacturers of disinfectants and disinfectant wipes weren’t quite prepared for such high demand this time of year.

On The Clorox Company’s earnings call last month, chairman and CEO Benno Dorer reported that the company had all-time record shipments of Clorox disinfecting wipes, cleanup disinfecting spray, disinfecting bathroom cleaner and Scentiva products. Demand for some disinfectant products spiked more than 500%. “Demand has been clearly unprecedented,” he said.

Dorer told analysts that the company has been able to increase production of disinfecting products by 40%. It’s now focusing on fewer SKUs; production of its line of Clorox compostable cleaning wipes is on hold for now in order to prioritize disinfecting wipes.

Clorox has also activated third-party suppliers to help it cope with the surge in demand. “We continue to find new ways to increase our capacity,” he added.

In terms of availability, Dorer told Yahoo! Finance last month that there will be substantial improvements in supply this summer. “It’s going to be touch and go until then, unfortunately. But help is on the way, and I think things should ease up in the next few months

To alleviate shortages caused by consumer stockpiling, wipes manufacturers have been working as quickly and safely as possible to crank up capacity.

“Companies certainly ramped up production to meet the demand, while retailers have been seeking to normalize the supply situation by restricting purchases per customer,” says Svetlana Uduslivaia, head of Home and Tech Americas at Euromonitor International. “As stay-at-home restrictions ease and some of the at-home consumption normalizes, coupled with ramped up production, the situation will likely normalize in retail.”

 

OZ Health Contracts with Oerlikon for Spunbond and Meltblown Plant

OZ Health Plus will establish Australia’s first manufacturing plant to make the critical fine plastic material used in most protective face masks. OZ Health Plus has purchased a plant of the Swiss-based technology company Oerlikon to establish a Queensland-based production plant for spunbond and meltblown nonwovens. These fabrics are essential for Australia’s face mask manufacturers, who currently produce about 500 million medical and industrial masks per year. However the fabrics have to be imported from overseas and access to these materials has been severely disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Oerlikon’s German-based business unit Oerlikon Nonwoven has now executed legal and commercial arrangements to supply the specialized machinery which can manufacture the nonwoven material locally. The same machinery is used to make almost all face masks material manufactured in Europe. The world-leading Oerlikon Nonwoven meltblown plant will commence operations in April next year, with a second stage planned for late 2021.

The Oerlikon Nonwoven plant can produce meltblown fabrics for 500 million masks per year, along with other medical and non-medical grade products, filtration products, sanitary items, antiseptic wipes and more. Rainer Straub, head of Oerlikon Nonwoven, says: “We are very proud that we can now for the first time supply our Oerlikon Nonwoven meltblown technology to Australia. Due to the short delivery time, we hope to make our contribution to the Australian population and their safe supply of high-quality protective masks as soon as possible.”

OZ Health Plus director Darren Fooks says: “Australia has access to raw polypropylene feedstock but lacks the plant to convert that raw material to specialized spunbond and meltblown fabrics. These fabrics are essential for local mask manufacturing. The Australian- based Oerlikon Nonwoven plant will fill the production chain gap for Australia by producing the fabrics we need for mask production and many other products – it will reduce Australia’s protective mask supply chain from thousands of kilometers, to tens of kilometers.”

“Our decision in favor of Oerlikon Nonwoven was a given once we had analyzed the material samples. It was a matter of course for us that the Business Unit of the Oerlikon Manmade Fibers segment could supply high-quality machines and systems,” adds Fooks.

OZ Health Plus’ new facilities will take up 15,000 m2 of manufacturing space and will employ 100 full-time roles once the second stage of the project is complete. OZ Health Plus continues to work with both Queensland and Federal Government stakeholders and values their support in bringing this vital capability to Queensland.

 

U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Rising and Large Numbers are Predicted

A long-expected upturn in U.S. coronavirus deaths has begun, driven by fatalities in states in the South and West, according to data on the pandemic.

The number of deaths per day from the virus had been falling for months, and even remained down as states like Florida and Texas saw explosions in cases and hospitalizations — and reported daily U.S. infections broke records several times in recent days.

Scientists warned it wouldn’t last. A coronavirus death, when it occurs, typically comes several weeks after a person is first infected. And experts predicted states that saw increases in cases and hospitalizations would, at some point, see deaths rise too. Now that’s happening.

“It’s consistently picking up. And it’s picking up at the time you’d expect it to,” said William Hanage, a Harvard University infectious diseases researcher.

According to an Associated Press analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University, the seven-day rolling average for daily reported deaths in the U.S. has increased from 578 two weeks ago to 664 on July 10 — still well below the heights hit in April. Daily reported deaths increased in 27 states over that time period, but the majority of those states are averaging under 15 new deaths per day. A smaller group of states has been driving the nationwide increase in deaths.

California is averaging 91 reported deaths per day while Texas is close behind with 66, but Florida, Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey and South Carolina also saw sizable rises. New Jersey’s recent jump is thought to be partially attributable to its less frequent reporting of probable deaths.

The virus has killed more than 130,000 people in the U.S. and more than a half-million worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University, though the true numbers are believed to be higher.

Deaths first began mounting in the U.S. in March. About two dozen deaths were being reported daily in the middle of that month. By late in the month, hundreds were being reported each day, and in April thousands. Most happened in New York, New Jersey and elsewhere in the Northeast.

Deaths were so high there because it was a new virus tearing through a densely populated area, and it quickly swept through vulnerable groups of people in nursing homes and other places, said Perry Halkitis, the dean of the Rutgers University School of Public Health in New Jersey.

Many of the infections occurred before government officials imposed stay-at-home orders and other social-distancing measures. The daily death toll started falling in mid-April — and continued to fall until about a week ago.

Researchers now expect deaths to rise for at least some weeks, but some think the count probably will not go up as dramatically as it did in the spring — for several reasons.

First, testing was extremely limited early in the pandemic, and it’s become clear that unrecognized infections were spreading on subways, in nursing homes and in other public places before anyone knew exactly what was going on. Now testing is more widespread, and the magnitude of outbreaks is becoming better understood.

Second, many people’s health behaviors have changed, with mask-wearing becoming more common in some places. Although there is no vaccine yet, hospitals are also getting better at treating patients.

Another factor, tragically, is that deadly new viruses often tear through vulnerable populations first, such as the elderly and people already weakened by other health conditions. That means that, in the Northeast at least, “many of the vulnerable people have already died,” Halkitis said.

Now, the U.S. is likely in for “a much longer, slower burn,” Hanage, the Harvard researcher, said. “We’re not going to see as many deaths (as in the spring). But we’re going to see a total number of deaths, which is going to be large.”

 

The Relationship Between Viral Load and Air Transmission

According to MIT one of the biggest questions we still have about covid-19 is how much of a viral load is needed to cause infection. The answer changes if we think it is aerosols that we need to worry about. Smaller particles won’t carry as large a viral load as bigger ones, but because they can linger in the air for much longer, it may not matter—they’ll build up in larger concentrations and get distributed more widely the longer an infected person is around to expel aerosolized virus. 

The more people you have coming in and out of an indoor space, the more likely it is that someone who is infected will show up. The longer those infected individuals spend in that space, the higher the concentration of virus in the air over time. This is particularly bad news for spaces where people congregate for hours on end, like restaurants, bars, offices, classrooms, and churches. 

Airborne transmission doesn’t necessarily mean these places must stay closed (although that would be ideal). But wiping down surfaces with disinfectant, and having everyone wear masks, won’t be enough. To safely reopen, these spots will not just need to reduce the number of people allowed inside at any given moment; they will also need to reduce the amount of time those people spend there. Increasing social distancing beyond six feet would also help keep people safer. 

Ventilation needs to be a higher priority too. This is going to be a big problem for older buildings that usually have worse ventilation systems, and areas with a lot of those might need to remain closed for much longer. The impact of asymptomatic spread (transmission by people who don’t feel ill) and superspreaders only compounds the problem even further. But research conducted by the US Department of Homeland Security has shown that in the presence of UV light, aerosolized particles of the size the Tulane researchers studied would disappear in less than a minute. A number of businesses have begun deploying UV-armed robots to disinfect hospital rooms, shopping malls, stores, public transit stations, and more.

For many places, considerable delays in economic reopening might ultimately be the price of getting the virus under control. Otherwise the kind of thing that happened when a single open bar in Michigan led to an outbreak of more than 170 new cases could become commonplace. 

This article in the MIT Review also documents the evidence that the virus is airborne and points out that inefficient masks which are not tight fitting are not going to prevent transmission of these small aerosols.  The authors therefore recommend distancing and other non-filtration initiatives.  McIlvaine asks the question why doesn’t everyone just wear a mask which will capture these small particles?