How accurate are these forecasts?

This forecasting system is based on the fact there is almost always some information available, a piece of the puzzle so to speak, which can be used to generate future forecasts. This puzzle piece can be data you already have or it can be data we are supplying.

All companies have specific market data whether it is as narrow as one quotation for a new plant of a specific capacity, the historic size of one market in one industry in one country, or the total market in some country in a past year. What the company generally does not have is knowledge of the market in other countries and forecasts in any country for future years.

Nearly every product forecast is directly related either to the size or growth of specific industries, or to the markets for some other product or to the units of capacity (growth or total). A supplier of instruments will find that if semiconductor plant construction is going to be 50% as much in China as in the U.S., then the market potential for his instruments will be 50% as great. If China builds 10,000 MW of new coal plants next year and the U.S. only 5,000, then the Chinese market for new instruments will be twice as large. On the other hand, the replacement market will be equal since both have a similar installed base.

A supplier of seals will find that his market is at least in part directly related to the market for pumps. McIlvaine is continually updating 50,000 forecasts for pumps. This data is nearly as valuable for seals. So rather than pay McIlvaine for a custom report on seals, it is cost effective and useful to use a percentage of the pump numbers. A materials supplier may find that his market is more a function a certain type of pump e.g. diaphragm pump instead of centrifugal, rotary, or reciprocating. McIlvaine has pump forecasts segmented by type, so the relevant pump type can be selected.

The seals supplier may also sell his products for wind turbines. Therefore the McIlvaine forecast of new wind turbine purchases by country is directly relevant.  Since seals are used for air moving equipment in power, cement, and other industries, the total seals market will be best determined through use of a combination of relevant product and industry forecasts.

Separate forecasts are available for the big growth industries such as wind, solar, LNG, ethanol, and flat panel displays. Forecasts are also available for the big growth products such as membranes, air filters, and gas phase air pollution control.

Detailed industry analyses accompany each forecast. The forecasts for coal, nuclear, and gas turbine power generators are supported by cost trends for the various fuels and projected technology developments. Municipal wastewater forecasts are also provided in mgd of sewage transport, primary treatment, and secondary treatment.

Some industry segments such as refineries and oil and gas include monthly project updates of 20 pages or more.

This service also includes summary information on market reports prepared by others. In some cases the report has been prepared recently but in most cases the report is older. The publicly available information and white papers on these reports are included in the McIlvaine service. The revenue factors derived from this publicly available information can be used in the program to generate approximate forecasts.

Obviously it is desirable to purchase the report and use the McIlvaine system to provide currency and specificity to the report. But you may be taking a first cut at a number of different opportunities and want only rough approximation of the potential for each opportunity. Using the McIlvaine program you can then determine which of these opportunities deserves more in depth analysis. At that time you can then buy the report or reports which provide the analysis and background information.

So another advantage of using this system is to help you select market reports or even consultants who can provide more in depth information and analysis on your targeted opportunities.