MERCURY AIR REDUCTION
UPDATE
July 2008
McIlvaine Company
The analysis and forecast has been posted in the report. Here are some of the conclusions.
Coal-fired power plants are already purchasing activated carbon and will increase those purchases to between $600-$800 million in 2013.
Despite the vacature of the Federal Mercury Rule, the states are moving forward to limit mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants. The McIlvaine Company has conducted a unit by unit, plant by plant analysis and has concluded that the peak activated carbon consumption will be between 300 million lbs and 400 million lbs in 2013.
The market for activated carbon injection equipment will peak in 2010 at $234 million. However, the market for particulate upgrades will exceed $15 billion over the next 12 years. Some of the loss of the carbon market will be due to more efficient use of carbon in baghouses. McIlvaine predicts a massive precipitator replacement program to meet the new PM2.5 rules.
The market for alternatives to carbon could be additive and not a replacement for carbon. A device used downstream of a wet scrubber could increase overall mercury removal to more than 90 percent. Since best available control technology (BACT) will be required, the removal requirement will expand to match the technology.
U.S. demand for activated carbon for industrial stack gas applications will be 10 million lbs in 2010. The big demand is presently for water treatment. Total demand will reach 538 million lbs in 2009 whereas U.S. domestic supply will be 430 million lbs. Therefore there will be an imbalance of 108 million lbs. In 2010 this imbalance will be reduced due to new carbon manufacturing facilities.
The world market for activated carbon for stack gas applications will exceed 470 million lbs in 2013, up from just 86 million lbs this year.
Next week we will be posting the unit by unit analysis of plans for U.S. utilities.
McIlvaine Company,
Northfield, IL 60093-2743
Tel: 847-784-0012; Fax: 847-784-0061;
E-mail: editor@mcilvainecompany.com;
Web site: www.mcilvainecompany.com