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Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

·       The IIoT and Remote O&M Segment of Renewable Energy is Growing Faster than the Industry

·       A New Route to Market for Combust, Flow and Treat Companies

·       The Role of Engineering Design Firms in Coal-fired Power Generation

 A New Route to Market for Combust, Flow and Treat Companies

The way to increase revenues and profits for suppliers of combustion systems and components, pumps, valves, automation, filters, scrubbers, centrifuges and other flow and treat products and services is undergoing a major metamorphosis. Much of the change is driven by the new ability to continuously and remotely monitor the performance of each product down to the on-off valve.

Suppliers are looking at organic growth opportunities as well as to acquisitions, collaborations and partnerships. The attractiveness of each route is altered by the avalanche of information about performance of each product which will become increasingly available.

 The organic growth opportunities are changed by

·       A concentration of decision making among 20,000 people at 1000 operating and supplier companies.

·       The potential to add smart product features and increase unit sales prices.

·       The yearly contract potential for all locations of the operator.

·       Service and advisory revenues from continuous monitoring of the product.

·       The potential to provide better and higher revenue products based on the continuous total cost of ownership information which is available to the operator.

The acquisition options are changed by

·       The desire of large purchasers to choose suppliers who can provide solutions for multiple products on a worldwide basis.

·       Since performance of products can be remotely monitored the parent supplier company can provide centralized support for its new acquisitions.

·       The knowledge about smart products is important and can be provided to all subsidiaries more economically than if each group does its own development.

·       Product companies can consider acquiring software companies and instrument manufacturers which allow them to provide a smart package.

The collaboration options are changed by

·       Purchasing decisions will increasingly be made by suppliers of process management systems.

·       Suppliers will need to find process management system partners or develop their own systems.

·       The need for worldwide service means that smaller companies focused on a narrow geography will need to find partners in other areas in order to address the needs of international purchasers.

The sales program will need to change to address the following:

·       The concentration of decision making to just 20,000 people.

·       The easy identification of those decision makers in the digital world.

·       The knowledge level of these decision makers which cannot be matched by local sales people.

·       Purchasers who will want to work with individuals with comparable knowledge at supplier companies.

·       Web communications and other electronic tools to eliminate most of the physical distance barriers.

The Mcilvaine Company can provide insights and advice on strategy development based on

·       50 million current forecasts of combust, flow and treat products segmented by industry, country and product

·       Additional forecasts as needed for hundreds of millions of products e.g. ball valves for oil and gas pipelines further segmented in to trunnion vs rotary, top entry vs side entry, and for each size from 2 inch to 36 inch.

·       Extensive knowledge regarding IIoT and Remote O&M

·       Process knowledge dating back 43 years plus analysis of future trends 

·       Extensive acquisition analysis experience

o   Evaluated Asea for Brown Boveri in the 1970s prior to formation of ABB

o   Conducted more than 100 acquisition investigations in the combust, flow, and treat area

·       Expert Witness activity

o   Provided expert witness expertise relative to products and markets starting with the Pullman vs J. Ray McDermott in the 1970s

o   Much of this information remains confidential but valuable general insights are gained from details on product pricing, margins, the value of stolen information etc.

Mcilvaine is in a unique position to help you move forward in this new connected world. Mcilvaine consultants are available to assist in small or large projects. When short timelines are needed such as in litigation and acquisition analysis, Mcilvaine can provide quick answers.  In cases where a client is already working with a management consultant Mcilvaine can support that consultant.

For more information contact Bob Mcilvaine at 847-784-0012 ext. 112 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

The IIoT and Remote O&M Segment of Renewable Energy is Growing Faster than the Industry

Because wind and solar turbine generators are small compared to fossil generators and because they are typically installed in remote locations the need for remote monitoring and operation is greater than for fossil plants. Mcilvaine is tracking the increasing use of IIoT in renewable energy facilities in its IIoT and Remote O&M report

Last year global renewable energy generation capacity increased by more than 161 gigawatts (GW). At the end of 2016, the planet's renewable energy capacity was 2,000 GW. 

With 70 GW new solar energy led the way. Wind energy grew by 50 GW, hydropower increased by 30 GW and bioenergy 9 GW.

The top 25 owners account for 41 percent of global cumulative wind power capacity. A merger in China will create a single owner with total capacity much greater than any other.

Shenhua Group Corp, the country's top coal miner is merging with China Guodian Corp, among its largest power generators. With assets of 1.8 trillion yuan ($271 billion), the new entity will be the world's second-biggest company by revenue and largest by installed capacity. The new company will have installed capacity of more than 225 gigawatts, topping Electricite de France EDF) and Enel

Guodian is the largest wind farm owner with 32 GW of wind capacity

.        in the Americas, the largest asset owners have gradually increased their market share of wind assets. The top 25 owners account for 51percent of the Americas 100 GW of installed wind power capacity.  

.        BHE which was # 14 globally is also the U.S. leader and is increasing its market share. Mcilvaine is providing a unique decision system involving all of the BHE plants  

            4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect

.        Mcilvaine tracks the wind power projects in: 31I Renewable Energy Update and Projects

.        Profiles and analyses of the global top 50 are included in: N042 Renewable Energy World Markets

.        Forecasts of guide, control, and measure for each of the top 50 are included in: N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M

You can view a webinar presentation covering the market and the use of IIoT and Remote O&M in Renewable Energy at https://youtu.be/Z_f6ifDFR1o

The Role of Engineering Design Firms in Coal-fired Power Generation

McIlvaine is now tracking the expenditures for Guide, Control and Measure plus all Combust, Flow and Treat products and services for the 50 largest power plants, and 50 largest designers and EPC's. Profiles of each are being posted in the Utility Tracking System. Purchases of specific components by each are included in the Market Reports e.g.,  Pumps, Valves, FGD, DeNOx,  IIoT (automation and analyzers), Liquid Filtration, RO-UF, Sedimentation, Fabric Filters and Treatment Chemicals  On a custom basis, McIlvaine is providing purchase forecasts for fans, compressors, nozzles, and linings.

The engineering design firms are losing the race in coal-fired power generation. EPCs and OEMs are winning by default. The large engineering design firms are not competing effectively in Asia and Africa. The 2015 rankings by ENR show that the leading design firm, AECOM had only $393 million in fossil revenues and the top five combined were just over $1 billion. Total expenditures worldwide for new fossil plants were close to $150 billion. Upgrades and renovations added another $50 billion in purchases. Chinese and Japanese EPC contractors were among the biggest winners.

The U.S. market for design in coal-fired boilers is disappearing. Ironically the article above on the Trump initiative to cancel an EPA edict to require more NO_x control at BHE will lessen rather than increase the design work.

FOSSIL FUEL

POWER

Revenues for design firms are not easily quantified. They can include value-added (engineering services) plus pass-through purchases. In cases where the design firm partners with an EPC, the entire cost of the plant may be reflected in revenues.

Much of the low level design work in Asia can be provided by low cost locals. The high level knowledge needs to be constantly refreshed with the latest developments. When China reached an installed base of coal-fired power plants which was four times the U.S. capacity, U.S.-based design firms lost much of their lead in high level knowledge. In fact, the U.S. experts on subjects such as flue gas desulfurization are losing their jobs because their companies do not have enough contracts to support them.

High level knowledge has not been prioritized by U.S. design firms. In fact, the guiding light of only utilizing people who generate billable hours precludes the development of experts to support the billable hour people. The duplication of effort by multiple project managers has been seen to add to revenues rather than to reduce them.

In the new world of IIoT, with every slurry valve being monitored and analyzed continually, the amount of valuable information will expand exponentially. Only companies who recognize the value of niche expertise and create ways to acquire and leverage it will prosper.

McIlvaine believes that the U.S.-based design firms can play a big role in the world's coal-fired power decisions, but only if they focus on providing fewer hours of expert advice at high hourly rates rather than provide more hours of work by less knowledgeable individuals. The profit margins per hour can be high enough to offset the loss of hours. If decision systems are developed for NTPC, Shenhua/Guodian, EVN, and Eskom similar to the one developed for BHE, there will be a platform for the design firm experts. 

4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect

Information on the Utility Tracking System with profiles of the end users, EPC's and AE's is shown at 42EI Utility Tracking System

Bob McIlvaine can answer questions and can be reached at: rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112