Increase Monitoring Sales to The Coal-fired Power Generators
The Asian market for coal-fired power plant air and water monitoring is going to be very large. The new regulations on environmental control in India will create a large market in the next few years. Indonesia and Vietnam are planning over 100,000 MW of coal-fired power plants. China, Japan, Europe and the U.S. are upgrading existing coal-fired power plants with optimization systems which use temperature and oxygen laser sensors in the furnace and other monitors throughout the front and back end for improved performance. McIlvaine has a complete program to help monitoring suppliers succeed in this market:
Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects
The specific program would include:
N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market This will provide valve forecasts for each type of valve in each power plant application in each country.
42EI Utility Tracking System: Tracks all new projects and every existing power plant worldwide.
44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions (Power Plant Flow Control and Treatment) This service has a free child web for power plants with a decision guide for each type of valve in each application e.g. knife gate valves for flue gas desulfurization (FGD).
Smog Today or Climate Change Tomorrow: The Chinese Dilemma
China has to balance the health and welfare of its citizens today with longer range impacts of climate change. McIlvaine has a number of services which shed light on the resolution of this difficult choice. One is N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects. In this service, McIlvaine is following the very ambitious program in the northern mining regions of China to convert coal to clean gas and transport it around the country. Sinopec is proceeding with a $20 billion pipeline. Various gasification projects are in the planning or construction stage. There has been international criticism of this program due to its climate change implications. Since smog in major cities has been very high on the list of citizen complaints, a program to economically reduce it has considerable support. The clean gas will be piped to cities around the country and will replace dirty fuels presently burned in residential, commercial and light industrial plants. New research substantiates this argument.
"Coal and other dirty solid fuels are frequently used in homes for cooking and heating," said Denise Mauzerall, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and public and international affairs at Princeton University. "Because these emissions are essentially uncontrolled they emit a disproportionately large amount of air pollutants which contribute substantially to smog in Beijing and surrounding regions."
Households account for about 18 percent of total energy use in the Beijing region but produce 50 percent of black carbon emissions and 69 percent of organic carbon emissions, according to a research team from institutions including Princeton, the University of California Berkeley, Peking University and Tsinghua University. In the Beijing area, households contribute more pollutants in the form of small soot particles (which are particularly hazardous to human health) than the transportation sector and power plants combined; in the winter heating season, households also contribute more small particles than do industrial sources. The researchers said the high levels of air pollutant emissions are due to the use of coal and other dirty fuels in small stoves and heaters that lack the pollution controls in place in power plants, vehicles and at some factories.
This syngas program would eliminate much of the smog problem. Its impact on net CO2 emissions will be smaller than what is claimed by the international opposition. The residential heating sources are inefficient. So they emit more CO2 per unit of energy produced than will a new gas furnace replacement. Another argument against the initiative is the impact on water resources in the mining areas. McIlvaine has done extensive analysis of water related activities in China. All of these plants will be equipped with zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems. This activity is tracked in N020 RO, UF, MF World Market.
In order to make the best decisions, China has to weigh the relative harm of CO2, NOx, PM2.5, water depletion and other resource impacts. It also has to weigh present vs. future values e.g. smog today vs. climate change tomorrow. McIlvaine has a common metric to weigh all harm and good Sustainability Universal Rating System.
Yes, Landfill Gas Engines Will Produce More Poison Ivy but also More Tomatoes
A New York Times article warns of the impending growth of poison ivy. Yes, but this fertilization effect of CO2 has been put to good use by thousands of greenhouses around the world. GE, Cummins and other engine manufacturers are actively pursuing CHP projects which provide greenhouses with electricity, heat, light and CO2. Is it better to increase the production of tomatoes or retard the growth of poison ivy?
The Southcoast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) struggled with this question in the recent analysis of the 1110.2 biogas emission amendment. The question is whether landfill gas engines would be a better choice than just flaring. The Beverly Hills estate owner who can easily buy whatever tomatoes are desired but is struggling to keep poison ivy under control will have a completely different value judgment than a starving child in Sudan. Should SCAQMD prioritize the desires of its residents above those of the starving people in the world? The answer is “Yes.” But this does not mean that every government in the world should reflect the values of SCAQMD residents.
There is a broader implication which greatly affects the market for reciprocating engines. These engines contribute to the increase of CO2 in the world. A recent study by a number of collaborating universities now supports the long held theory that the earth is growing greener. Other studies have estimated that the increase in crop value is in the $billions and possibly even the $trillions. Many engines are being purchased by developing countries to provide critical power and, in turn, save lives and increase the welfare of the residents.
Decisions about the environmental impacts of these initiatives are being made on a simplistic basis. Engine manufacturers should support a more complex analysis which better represents the true desires of citizens. The three key analysis elements are (1) quality of life, (2) tribal values and (3) discounted future. The evaluation should not be based on the standard life quantity guide but on life quality. The highest honor gold medal goes to the soldiers who sacrificed decades of life quantity for one heroic life quality moment.
The tribal value question is put to rest by the fact that no government provides more than a tiny fraction of a percent of GDP for foreign aid. The SCAQMD biogas analysis reflects the values of the district. It points out that the CO2 from flaring and the biogas engine are the same but that organic emissions could be higher with the engine option. Since the SCAQMD residents are the ones primarily impacted by the organic emissions, there is a tribal consideration which is contrasted to the CO2 which is global.
The analysis further points out that the potential lost electricity with the flaring is not consequential because the electricity furnished in the district is efficient and green. By contrast, the starving Sudanese child lives in a district without any electricity. The potential to convert flared gas into electricity has enormous benefits to the child and other residents of the district.
The third element is the discount rate for future values. The parents of the Sudanese child and the wealthy grandfather setting up trusts are discounting future values at greatly different rates. The value of one more tomato today vs. one 50 years from now to the wealthy grandchild and the Sudanese child is very different. This discount rate is at the heart of the controversy between the Chinese government and international environmentalists. China has a program which will convert large amounts of coal to clean gas. Sinopec is building a $20 billion pipeline to distribute this gas throughout China. Many engines will be required to drive the thousands of compressors in the pipeline. The gas will replace solid fuels burned in many residences. China believes that this cheap gas supply will result in eliminating the severe smog problem. The health of Chinese citizens today is being prioritized over worldwide health consequences fifty years from now.
There is no simplistic answer in choosing between poison ivy and tomatoes. The world deserves the more complex analysis explained at Sustainability Universal Rating System.
Details on the technical, commercial, and application information on the use of engines for greenhouses, pipelines, compressors, data centers and wastewater plants is available through a service described at GTRE Decisions.
The markets, regulations and competitive information is in a program described at 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
Here are some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert – September 16, 2016
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1290 – September 16, 2016
Table of Contents
COAL – US
• Energy Secretary Moniz states Administration working to keep Coal a part of Low Carbon Energy

COAL – WORLD

• Saurashtra Power Plant (India) must revise Design to meet Air Pollution Regulations
• BHEL is delivering a number of Power Plants with Precipitators
• More BHEL Power Projects
• India keeps adding, delaying, and canceling Coal Projects
• Sri Lanka cancels Coal-fired Power Plant Project with NTPC
• New Coal Plants in Victoria, South Australia under scrutiny
• NEPRA grants license to China Power for 1,320 MW Coal-fired Power Plant at Hub Balochistan, Pakistan
• Japan to build Two Coal-fired Power Plants North of Tokyo
The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.
Decision Guides Help to Increase Market Share
Emerson has signed an agreement to purchase the Valves & Controls business of Pentair for $3.15 billion. The acquisition is expected to close in the next four to six months, subject to various regulatory approvals.
“This acquisition delivers on our strategic plan of investing in Automation Solutions and in markets where we have a global leadership position and see significant long-term growth opportunities,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David N. Farr. “By adding Pentair’s Valves & Controls leading technologies and services to our already broad portfolio, we have positioned our businesses to grow while continuing to provide our customers around the world with more complete solutions to their toughest challenges.”
“The Pentair Valves & Controls business is a strong fit for us as they share many of the same management principles that have defined success for Emerson over the years such as global customer support, service, best cost sourcing and manufacturing,” said Mike Train, Executive Vice President and Business Leader for Emerson Automation Solutions. “In addition to adding great people and brands to our business, it will allow us to expand our market position and create new opportunities for growth, while also being able to offer our customers the most complete valve solutions portfolio and most extensive service network in the world.”
McIlvaine updates more than 50,000 valve forecasts continually and also provides market share rankings based on the latest 12-month performance. See N028 Industrial Valves: World Market
Company Valve and Actuator Sales
$ Millions
General Performance
$ Millions
High Performance
$ Millions
High Performance Market Share
%
Pentair $2,100 600 1,500 4
Emerson $1,980 600 1,360 3
New Emerson $4,080 1,200 1,880 7
Cameron $1,520 200 1,320 3
Flowserve $1,470 400 1,070 2
Other $78,850 47,000 32,870 81
Total $90,000 50,000 40,000 100
The new Emerson will hardly be a player in the general performance valve market with just a 2 percent market share. However, with a 7 percent market share in high performance valves and sales which are twice that of its nearest competitor, it will be exercising its “right to win” position. This position could be substantially enhanced by the Decision Guide program initiated by McIlvaine.
High performance valves have been defined by McIlvaine to include both severe and critical service. Each needs to be purchased based on lowest total cost of ownership (LTCO) and not on initial price. These high performance valves are important elements in the Automation Solutions cited by Emerson as the target market for the expanded company.
Automation Solutions requires process knowledge far beyond what is easily acquired and understood. The supplier needs the knowledge to offer the system and the end user needs the knowledge to justify its LTCO. McIlvaine is offering Decision Guides to address this need. The guides cover all aspects of coal-fired, gas turbine and reciprocating engine operation. Narrow guides in specific subjects in oil gas such as molecular sieve switching valves and choke valves are also kept current.
This approach is radically different than current practice and can best be explained by an example. Emerson is pursuing a large multi-plant automation project for a major utility. The success of the optimization depends on the quick and precise reaction of many valves. The degree of success in the boiler impacts a number of valve related decisions in the back end portion of the upgrade. The utility has been using the McIlvaine Power Plant Air Quality Decisions Guide (PPAQD). A series of five webinars including three already conducted and two to be held in early September are helping the utility, consultants and the suppliers maximize the value of the material in PPAQD. At this point it looks as if the PPAQD will result in an approach which will save over $200 million in capital costs.
There have been discussions with the executives of the utility as to why the Decision Guide would be critical in determining the best options. There is agreement that the relevant information particularly about total solutions is doubling every few years. Conventional approaches to take advantage of the voluminous data are clearly inadequate. The consultants and the utility personnel both can take advantage of the Decision Guide.
Emerson can take advantage of this new route to market to ensure that end users around the world understand the lowest total cost of ownership benefits. For more information on Decision Guides click on Decision Guides . The upcoming webinars are described at Hot Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings
-------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Free_Newsletter_Registration_Form.htm.


Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com