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Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

• See us Next Week at the Filtration Conference October 10-12
• Combust, Flow and Treat Markets in Nuclear Power will be Covered in October 18 Webinar
• Five Companies will be Responsible for 39 Percent of the Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases in the Nuclear Power Sector Next Year
• Subject Matter Experts need to be Cultivated and Supported

See us Next Week at the Filtration Conference October 10-12

Filtration 2017 will be held at Navy Pier in Chicago where 1500 attendees will be able to view 140 exhibitor stands in addition to a number of cutting edge presentations.  Tuesday, October 10 will be devoted to presentations. There will be a session on IIoT where Herve Buisson, Vice President of Veolia Water will cover some of the water industry's IIoT initiatives and probe the ways that the industry can create smarter filters.

Frank Stamatatos, President of SecureAire Inc will address IIoT and

·       Explore the relationship between the Internet, Filtration Technologies, and their application in critical environments.

·       Review the current Internet application categories and how they fit in with Filtration. 

·       Describe SecureAire's method for applying the IoT in controlling IAQ in critical environments. 

·       Offer provocative thoughts on the future of the Filtration Industry with IoT.

The key note speaker at the Tuesday luncheon, Philip Whitaker, president, and CEO of AAF Flanders, will provide insights on why there has been an upswing of M&A activity involving filtration-related companies and what performance metrics should current filtration companies focus on to enhance their value.

The exhibition will be open both Wednesday, October 11 and Thursday, October 12.  Mcilvaine personnel will be participating on all three days.  If you want to talk to Bob Mcilvaine you can reach him by cell phone at 847-226-2391 or by email at 847-784-0012 ext. 112.

Combust, Flow and Treat Markets in Nuclear Power will be Covered in October 18 Webinar

McIlvaine will conduct a webinar on October 18 which will provide insights into the market for combust flow and treat products and services for the nuclear power industry.   A number of specific product forecasts will be reviewed.  These are listed in in the next article. This webinar is free.  You can register at  Free Market Webinars

Five Companies will be Responsible for 39 Percent of the Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases in the Nuclear Power Sector Next Year

Global nuclear power generation is now predicted to grow by 2.3 percent per annum out to 2035, mainly due to 11 percent annual growth in China. China's operating nuclear generating capacity will double over the next five years under the country's recently-published 13th Five-Year Plan.

Under that plan, over the next five years combust flow and treat hardware and parts expenditures for existing plants next year will be four times greater than for new plants.  Guide, control, and measure hardware investments will be ten times greater for existing plants than new ones in 2018.  Service and remote monitoring will be 50 times greater for existing plants than the new ones (during the first year of operation).

 Over 90 percent of the combust, flow and treat expenditures will be made by fewer than 50 companies.  Thirty-nine percent will be made by just three operators and one supplier.

Bechtel has completed more than 74,000 megawatts of new nuclear generation capacity, and has performed engineering and/or construction services on more than 80 percent of nuclear plants in the United States and 150 worldwide. It employs 2,200 nuclear professionals, which include approximately 150 internationally recognized technical specialists who have been published widely, and have participated in developing industry standards and guidelines.  It is a major influence in ten percent of the combust, flow and treat decisions.

EDF has acquired Areva and then restructured the New NP reactor business to allow minority share purchases by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Assystem. In addition to operating 70,000 MW of nuclear power in France the company is negotiating the sale of nuclear power plants in China, India, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is responsible for 20 percent of the nuclear combust, flow and treat decisions.

Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) is a nuclear power operator with a capacity of 23,116 MW.  It is operating 25 nuclear power units as of 2016 with five under construction. It will make five percent of the combust, flow and treat purchasing decisions in 2018.

Exelon has consolidated nuclear power operations in the U.S. and is now operating plants with a capacity of over 19,000 MW.  It will make four percent of the 2018 combust, flow and treat decisions.

These estimates are very approximate and involve problems with the precise defined scope.  Orders are booked in one period.  Revenue might be realized in a series of succeeding periods. The purchasing decision may be shared between the OEM, the EPC and the operator.  Some decisions will be made at the plant level.  Others will be made at the corporate level. However, with the rapid deployment of IIoT more and more decisions will be made at the corporate operator level.  Process management system companies will be an increasing influence.

Forecasts for the individual purchasers provide an important tool for suppliers. Most already have separate sales efforts for the large purchasers.  IIoT will result in most decisions being made or specified at the corporate level. So, the OEM sales effort will need to expand.

Forecasts of individual operator purchases are equivalent to pieces of a puzzle. The sales forecast is built upon a picture puzzle for which many of the pieces are missing.  The more pieces which are fitted together, the more accurate the picture becomes.

McIlvaine is providing combust, flow and treat forecasts for more than 550 companies.   They appear in the various market reports.  The guide, control and measure forecasts for individual nuclear power generators and suppliers are included in N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M  The nuclear valve forecasts appear in the Industrial Valves World Markets which also has a supplemental analysis for the 5000 high performance valves in an Areva system.  There are market reports covering each of the subject areas. The profiles of individual power companies and suppliers are included in the Utility Tracking System 42EI Utility Tracking System.

Subject Matter Experts need to be Cultivated and Supported

In the IIoT world there will be the equivalent of millions of continuous analyses on every combust, flow and treat product.  There will be a great need to evaluate all the voluminous information and make accurate conclusions as to the total cost of ownership of each different product. This will require focused efforts by thousands of experts each focusing on a niche so small that he will be a one subject matter expert (SME).

In the Insights last week, we covered the Dry Scrubber Users Group and the contribution SMEs at Primex are making not only to sort out the products with the lowest cost of ownership but to help the suppliers (e.g. capless bag) improve their products to fit the unique process circumstances created in dry scrubbing.

Furthermore, these SMEs gained even more knowledge through the discussions at the conference and the contributions made by other operators and suppliers.

McIlvaine has the following recommendations

·       User groups such as DSUA need to be encouraged to provide international coverage

·       These groups can help create subject matter experts from among their ranks of retirees.

·       Consulting companies have an opportunity to develop SMEs and move away from the concept that all employees need to generate billable hours on projects

·       Suppliers will be well served to encourage their retirees to become SMEs 

·       User groups will need to become more focused over time.  The first EPA FGD conference in 1972 had about 20 attendees and covered every possible type of scrubber.  Now we have a user group devoted just to dry scrubbers and another one just devoted to just hydrate injection.  As the quantity of knowledge in each subject area increases it will be necessary to provide more focused interconnection.

Bob Mcilvaine can answer questions and can be reached at: rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112