October 2015 - Air and Water Monitoring Insights 55

Detailed Forecasting Of Air and Water Monitoring Increases Accuracy and Facilitates Precise Estimates of Individual Project Opportunities

The Air and Water Monitoring Market report by McIlvaine Company includes 40,000 quarterly forecasts with divisions by each country, industry and product type. McIlvaine also offers more detailed options which provide many additional revenue forecasts per quarter. There are three advantages to the extended forecasts.

· Strategic: detailed forecasts are more accurate and can be directly related to the products offered by the monitoring supplier

· Sales: detailed forecasts make it possible to assign values to all the large projects and to prioritize them

Air and water monitoring forecasts are segmented into a number of categories. One is the medium. The standard forecasts provide a split between gases and liquids. However, further splits can be made between ambient air, stack gas, process gas and products of combustion. Liquids can be segmented by water, oil, process liquids and slurries.

Another segmentation is by task including intermittent sampling and continuous monitoring. Segmentation by function includes sensors, sample conditioning, analysis and control.

A good example is the LNG industry. Special monitoring devices and control systems are needed for gases and cryogenic liquids. With a system which delivers more detail, LNG revenues can be extracted from the total oil and gas forecast and control systems determined by country. Furthermore, the forecasts can be segmented by the three types of operations: liquefaction, transport and regasification.

In each segment the actual number of measurement and control systems can be determined for a specific facility or tanker. With the price of each control system, the project order opportunity can be determined. With this detailed forecasting it is possible to assign values to each project in the McIlvaine 71EI Oil, Gas, Shale, Refining E-Alert. Here are three examples from the September 15 issue.

Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS), has selected Axens as a technology provider for PETRONAS’ Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (RAPID) project located in Pengerang, Johor, Malaysia. RAPID is part of PETRONAS’ Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) development, which includes six major associated facilities namely the Pengerang Co-generation Plant, Re-gasification Terminal 2, Air Separation Unit, Raw Water Supply Project, Liquid Bulk Terminal as well as central and shared utilities and facilities. RAPID is estimated to cost US$16 billion while the associated facilities will involve an investment of about US$11 billion. PIC is poised for its refinery start-up by early 2019.

Regasification terminal will generate a cryogenic liquids control and measurement opportunity of $0.5 million and $0.3 million opportunity for gas measurement. Total flow control and treatment opportunities for the project are over $200 million.

KBR, Inc. has been awarded a near-shore floating LNG Front End Engineering Design (FEED) contract by Lloyds Energy Ltd. Under this contract, KBR will provide integrated topsides and hull engineering design services for a nominal 2.5 million TPA floating natural gas liquefaction plant (FLNG). Start-up of the project facilities is expected to take place in 2019.

This project will add about one percent to world LNG capacity and create a $1 million opportunity for cryogenic liquid measurement and control and $1.5 million opportunity for gas measurement and control systems.

Keppel contracts 3rd Floating Liquefaction Facility Conversion Worth $684 Million

Keppel Shipyard Limited (Keppel Shipyard), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M), has signed a contract worth approximately US$684 million with Golar Gandria N.V., a subsidiary of Golar LNG Limited (Golar LNG), to perform the conversion of a Moss type Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier, the GANDRIA, into a Golar Floating Liquefaction (GoFLNG) facility. Keppel Shipyard will once again engage Black & Veatch to provide design, procurement and commissioning support services for the topsides, as well as the liquefaction process utilizing its established PRICO^® technology. The GANDRIA is a 126,000 cubic meter Moss LNG carrier.

Each ship is a $500,000 opportunity for gas measurement and control and a $1 million opportunity for measurement and control software but not including control valves for the cryogenic liquids.

For more information on N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/106-n031

There was a good discussion of power plant water monitoring as a 50 slide Decision Guide was reviewed in the Hot Topic Hour yesterday. David Gray of Mettler Toledo, Brad Buecker of Kiewit and Barbara Carney of NETL provided insights on how better measurement and control can meet the needs of ultra supercritical coal-fired power plants and fast cycling combined cycle gas turbine plants.

Jon Lehmkuhler of Chemtura asked some penetrating questions about the new ELGs which will be issued next week and the needs to measure bromates, boron and TDS. David pointed out that smart sensors are allowing quicker response and make continuous monitoring of all the parameters more useful. Brad explained that much of the sampling is necessary periodically rather than continuously. Barb pointed to several nano technology water sensor research projects which facilitate wireless technology. For remote monitoring of water discharges the wireless technology makes sense.

The broader question of remote monitoring as a tool for consultants drew interesting comments. David pointed out that utilities with one chemist for several plants are already supplying the chemist with data at a central location where he can serve the fleet. McIlvaine suggested to Brad that power plants around the world could benefit from his expertise. He agreed that with a remote feed of data he could offer advice as to problems and solutions.

Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) is planning to construct facilities to handle molten sulphur at the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery. The Prequalification Documents for Molten Sulphur Handling Facilities for the International EPC Contractors will be issued soon. One of the leading local companies has asked McIlvaine to introduce him to suppliers interested in representation for the project.

It is important to conduct InterWebviews^™ (IWV) in other languages. In fact the value is counter-intuitive. The smaller the potential market in a non-English speaking country, the more important it is to have InterWebviews^™. The reason is that the IWV is the most economical way to reach a small targeted audience. It is also a very economical way to reach large audiences with focused propositions. But there are other alternatives which become economical as the size of the audience grows.

If a company is going to want to reach 10,000 people with a proposition, then professional presentations can be economically justified. But for focused messages or general messages to a small targeted non-English audience, the InterWebview^™ is your answer. For less than $1,000 your local salesman, or someone selected by McIlvaine can utilize your English power point presentation and provide a spoken version as McIlvaine hosts and indexes the slides in a GoToMeeting session. McIlvaine took an English presentation by Wahlco and used a Chinese air pollution expert to make a presentation in Mandarin. This recording has received over 3,000 views on YouTube.

Company	Language	Subject (Click title to view recording)
CBI	Chinese	Mercury Removal
Wahlco	Chinese	Urea to Ammonia

These recordings demonstrate the high value for companies in the initial stages of market penetration. Much of the interest was from potential partners and important government institutes.

Indonesia, Vietnam and China will purchase more coal-fired power plant equipment than Europe, Africa and Americas combined over the next ten years. They will purchase more capacity than the peak U.S. installed base of 310,000 MW. Much of the equipment in Vietnam and Indonesia will be sold to offshore OEMs or engineered by offshore A/E firms. However, the big purchasers such as PLN in Indonesia will be the most important decision makers, so it is important to reach them.

Here are the number of native speakers in the three languages and the proficiency in English.

Language	Number of Native Speakers (millions)	Proficiency Ranking in English 63 Countries (1-63)	Proficiency Rating in English	MW of New Coal-Fired Boilers in Next 10 Years (1000s)
Mandarin (China)	1,000	41	low	200
Indonesian/Malay	77	28	moderate	50
Vietnamese	76	33	low	80

Many of the engineers have taken courses in English and can extract much information from a power point presentation in English. However, the most important aspects of your proposition are likely to involve detailed classifications which are not understood. So a verbal description in the native language is the way to communicate this.

Air and Water Monitoring Detailed Forecasts In Oil and Gas
Air and Gases Forecast 2015 $ Millions			Water and Liquids Forecast $ Millions
	All Oil and Gas $1,000			All Oil and Gas $3000
	Process Gases $600			Process Liquids $400
	LNG Cryogenic $70			LNG Cryogenic $150
Liquefaction	Regas	Transport $15	Liquefaction	Regas $30	Transport
		New/AM $12/$3		New/AM $25/$5
		Per Ship $.05		Per Terminal $0.5
		Per Tank $0.01		Number of Control Systems Per Terminal 3
		Per Control System $0.01		Control System Price $0.17