May 2016 - Air & Water Monitoring Insights 66

In 2017 sales of water monitoring equipment and services will be $17 billion and air monitoring services will be $11 billion. This is the latest forecast in N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market.

Asia will be the leading region followed by the Americas. Chinese sales will be over $4 billion representing one-third of the entire Asian market.

Thermo Fisher has been in the Chinese air pollution monitoring business for decades. By one definition it is said to have a 70 percent market share of ambient air monitors used in Chinese cities. It sold its first mercury monitor in China more than ten years ago. The Thermo decision to locate its air pollution research center in China is testimony to confidence in its ability to protect intellectual property in the country.

The monitoring business is a small part of the total Thermo business but has contributed to the 10 percent annual increase in revenue over the last five years. The EPS CAGR is an impressive 17 percent. Revenue growth has been 28 percent per year in China with sales of $1.4 billion last year.

The ambient market is growing fastest in developing countries where governments are investing in networks. However, in the U.S. there is a significant market for ambient networks purchased by power plants and industrial facilities which have to address new federal standards as well as embryonic standards in various states.

Large Individual Projects and Multiple Small Projects by Large Treatment Plants make Sales easier for Suppliers to North American Municipal Wastewater Plants

Ten percent of North America’s 20,000 wastewater plants buy the majority of the flow control and treatment equipment purchased by wastewater treatment plants in North America. Their large expansions and upgrades account for a majority of capital expenditures. This allows the supplier to identify his prospects months or years in advance of the actual sale. If the supplier is relying on quality rather than price to sell his product, then the opportunity to shape the final decision well in advance is critical.

An example of a large project is The Lions Gate Wastewater Treatment Plant in Vancouver. It has been told by the federal government it must upgrade to secondary treatment by December 31, 2020. The plant is one of two remaining primary treatment plants in the region. New federal regulations require all primary treatment plants be upgraded to secondary treatment. The cost will exceed $2 billion. So this is a project which will involve contacts with the city and A/E over the next two years in order to maximize order potential.

Some smaller projects are predictable long in advance due to new regulations or outdated technology. Plants with lagoons for sludge dewatering are likely to be considering changes. The City of Alliance, Ohio plans to build a dewatering system. Its lagoons are full. Over the20 year life of a new plant there is economic justification for this investment. It is good to be alerted to specific projects but, if you are selling dewatering equipment, you should be calling on every plant with lagoons and every plant with 20 year old dewatering equipment.

One way to make sure that you thoroughly pursue the large opportunities is to single out the largest prospects in each state. Here is a sample for Colorado:

Numeric by Flow Rate (MGD)	Plant Name
40	Aqua Nueva Wastewater Treatment Plant
30	Pima County Wastewater Treatment Plant
17.5	Tolleson, City Of
14.74	Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant
102.24	Total

Wastewater Industry - Percent of U. S. Market by State
STATE	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Alaska	0.24	0.24	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.26
California	12.20	12.42	12.65	12.87	13.11	13.34
Hawaii	0.43	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.45
Oregon	1.26	1.28	1.30	1.33	1.35	1.38
Washington	2.21	2.25	2.29	2.34	2.38	2.42
TOTAL Pacific States	16.35	16.64	16.93	17.23	17.53	17.84
Arizona	2.13	2.16	2.20	2.24	2.28	2.32
Colorado	1.71	1.74	1.77	1.80	1.83	1.87
Idaho

In 2017, Colorado’s secondary municipal wastewater capacity will be 1.77 percent of the total 40,000 mgd for the U.S. The top four plants have a total of over 100 mgd capacity which is 14.7 percent of the 680 mgd for the entire state.

Complex Unintended Consequences Obscure the Path Forward for Air Pollution Control

A small Ohio town no longer exists thanks to the unintended consequences of air pollution control. A nearby power plant spent hundreds of millions of dollars to reduce NO_x. The catalyst not only reduced the NO_x it converted SO₂ to sulfuric acid. Within a few days, the acid deposition did such great damage to the buildings in the town that the utility agreed to buy the complete town and pay for relocations. In the ensuing decade, catalyst suppliers have redesigned their product to eliminate this problem.

New mercury regulations have such low emission limits that the instrument just to measure gaseous mercury can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Prior to issuing the regulation, EPA tested a number of stacks and found that all the mercury existed in gaseous form. Therefore, the regulations only required measurement of gaseous mercury. In response to the regulation requirements, power plants, cement plants and waste-to-energy plants embraced a two-step solution.

Step one was to convert the gaseous mercury to particulate mercury. Step two was to remove the particulate mercury. The end result is that if step one is very efficient and step two is not, there is lots of particulate mercury being emitted. Another unintended consequence is that particulate mercury will not travel far, whereas gaseous mercury can transverse the globe. Even though this problem has been evident for a few years, there is still no proposed change in the regulations.

The recent regulation of many pollutants combined with new technology which makes it possible to remove all the pollutants in one device has greatly increased the use of fabric filters. However, there has not been a recognition of what McIlvaine describes as “The importance of FIFO vs. LIFO in Dust Cake creation.”

Direct sorbent injection (DSI) and embedded catalyst dictate a new approach to bag cleaning. In addition to discrete particle capture, bag filters are being tasked with:

The importance of the method of bag cleaning can be illustrated by use of the accounting approach to inventory. Two options are first in first out (FIFO) and last in first out (LIFO). If the price paid stays the same, the choice between the two accounting methods makes no difference. But, if the cost of recent inventory is greatly different than the past, then the accounting method makes a big impact on profits.

The capture of discrete particles is the equivalent of price parity. Let’s say that when you pulse a bag you are always discharging the latest particles to arrive and the remaining cake consists of the earliest. Since the ability of a matrix of dust particles to act as a filtration medium does not change, it does not matter which particles remain. In fact, maintaining a somewhat permanent layer of cake protects the fabric from wear. Also a more permanent cake provides higher dust capture. It has been shown that on-line cleaning results in some re-deposit of dust particles. But this is does not impact discrete particle capture efficiency.

The new paradigm with DSI is a big price difference. The newly arrived lime particle has the capability to absorb acid gases. The lime particle deposited earlier is already converted to calcium sulfate and provides no additional absorption capability. The semi-permanent cake layer is very undesirable for acid gas capture. Mercury re-emission is also a risk for an activated carbon cake which is semi-permanent. So it is very important to adopt FIFO and not LIFO.

This leads to the obvious question as to which are the best cleaning methods to achieve LIFO? The long running debate about surface filtration vs. depth filtration needs to be reviewed in light of FIFO. Also, the pulsing method itself needs to be reviewed. Do some methods result in more re-entrainment of particles in the previous cake than do others? Should more of the cake be removed with each pulsing?

It could be argued that the reaction takes place in the ductwork and not on the bag. But the big difference in performance of bag filters vs. precipitators with DSI proves that the cake absorption is substantial.

There may be lots of research on this subject but if so, McIlvaine would appreciate feedback on it. If there is not, it is an area deserving lots of attention.

Bag cleaning is also made more challenging by the increasing use of ceramic filter elements. The advantage of these elements is the ability to remove dust at 850°F. The older generation rigid ceramic has been replaced by ceramic fiber media which can be pulsed. However, this media cannot necessarily be pulsed with the identical system used for synthetic bags. An alumina refinery in Australia was having cleaning problems with a ceramic filter. Pentair Goyen analyzed the situation and provided a more robust pulsing system. This solved the problem.

Ceramic, glass and even synthetic media are incorporating catalyst in the media to reduce NO_x or oxidize dioxins. Do these designs require a different cleaning approach? The catalyst in the Clear Edge design is not on the surface. So, the dust cake will not affect performance except if it causes maldistribution of the gas. If more gas flows through one area than another, the reactivity of the system is reduced.

A broader subject is the whole approach to cleaning. High pressure/low volume is the most popular option. Does capture of these other pollutants open the door for high volume /medium pressure or even for reverse air cleaning?

The potential for the one-stop shopping is great. Costs of pollution control can be reduced for new installations. The small footprint makes a big difference in the cost of upgrading existing plants to meet new air pollution rules. It is, therefore, important to understand and then maximize FIFO potential. McIlvaine will be interviewing experts in the various niches to shed more light on this. The results will be published in:

Total Solutions is the Best Path for International Air Pollution Control Equipment Suppliers

The number of regulated air pollutants, stringency of regulations and technology are all changing rapidly. No one would have predicted that direct sorbent injection would be a success twenty years ago. In the preceding decade, lots of research money had been spent in the U.S. on the assumption that 60 percent SO₂ removal would be sufficient. When the regulators ultimately opted for 90 percent efficiency, dry sorbent injection (DSI) was taken off the table. Now, with new hydrated lime technology and the willingness of power plants to spend lots of money for sorbent to avoid capital investments, the outlook for DSI is very promising.

Today, plant owners must consider technologies that remove particulate, acid gases, mercury, CO, CO₂, NO_X and organics. Some technologies create new air and water pollutants which must also be addressed.

Various industries have unique challenges. They also have many identical needs. Cement plants should pay attention to developments in the coal-fired power sector and vice versa. McIlvaine just hosted a webinar which concluded that ionic liquid impregnated pellets designed for natural gas mercury removal could have wide applicability in power, waste-to-energy and other industries.

McIlvaine publishes a number of specific market reports and databases on each technology and industry. It also publishes 5AB Air Pollution Management to guide executives making strategic decisions for their companies. One of the recommendations is to be a “Solutions Provider” whether you are selling complete systems or just a component.

Air Pollution Control Solutions
Industry
	Process
		Sub Process
			Solutions
				The LTCO Air Pollution Control Product

Let’s take an example. A typical valve controlling compressed air is a commodity product. One application involves pulsing air to clean filter bags. Pentair has become the world leader in this specialty niche by understanding the dust collection cleaning process and the variations needed for different industries. Pentair supplies not only the valves but the headers and the controls to optimize the cleaning process.

W.L. Gore has developed a number of innovative solutions based on process and industry knowledge. Most power plants have wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. There are new rules to reduce mercury. Wet FGD systems will remove most of this mercury with the right treatment chemicals. The conventional solution to remove the remainder of the mercury is to use activated carbon upstream. The problem is that any mercury removed by carbon reduces the amount captured in the scrubber. W.L. Gore developed a module that can be installed after the scrubber and efficiently remove remaining mercury.

This technology fits particularly well into the processes employed at sewage sludge incinerators and power plants. It is less attractive in some other industries. The reasons have to do with the sub processes, processes and the specific industries. The air pollution control solutions provider who understands all these aspects is in a position to offer the product with the lowest total cost of ownership (LTCO). This knowledge is the key to success in the international market. In fact, owners and operators in developing countries are in greater need of these insights than those in developed countries.

This alert is being issued twice per month for suppliers in flow control and treatment who are coordinating market research with targeted pursuit of the larger and longer term orders.

The following projects each will result in millions of dollars of orders for flow control and treatment products. Each project has been rated. The opportunity size is rated from 1-10 with 1 being small and 10 being very large. The timing for flow and treatment orders has been provided by year, e.g. T 16 = timing of order is 2016.

Minatitlan Refinery $800 Mln ULSD Contract Awarded to Técnicas Reunidas (07,T17)

KBR Wins Multi-phased Contract for Front-end Engineering and Design for Woodfibre LNG

Black & Veatch Win Chinese Shanxi Qixian Liquefied Natural Gas Project (T16)

Expansion of the Alfa Laval Test & Training Centre for LNG and Other Fuels will Drive Environmental and Energy Solutions

FEED Contract Signed within Framework of the Heydar Aliyev Refinery Reconstruction Project

South Korea Continues Push to Become Northeast Asian Oil Hub, Despite Delays

These projects are covered in more detail and are integrated in a database which is part of Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects. This semi-monthly report is available as part of this service or as a stand-alone subscription.

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