Market for Monitoring Gases, Liquids and Solids Predicted to Grow Robustly
Machine-to-machine communication will be the catalyst to robust growth of
sensors and related electronics to measure the status of air, water, combustion
gases and other gases and liquids used in fossil, nuclear and renewable energy
power generation. Solids such as coal, lime and dry chemicals also must be
monitored. The 2020 market is predicted to grow to $78 billion, according to the
McIlvaine Company in its N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market report.
Power Plant Monitoring Market in 2020
Generation Type Monitoring
and Automation Revenues
$ Billions
Coal-Fired Power 30
Gas Turbine Combined Cycle 20
Nuclear 18
Wind and Solar 2
Geothermal and Biomass 4
Hydro 4
Total 78
There are large numbers of new coal-fired power plants in planning in Asia,
Africa and other areas. Plants in the United States are suddenly no longer faced
with the necessity of closing due to the change in administration. They are now
reviewing how to make these power plants more efficient for long-term operation.
The quickest payback will be in better control of the solids, gases and liquids.
To improve combustion, sophisticated devices such as tunable diode lasers allow
monitoring of oxygen and CO2 at numerous points within the boiler. This
information is then used to adjust burner dampers.
The software associated with the monitors can learn empirically and optimize
operations. It can also provide information for remote control of a fleet of
generators or for use by vendors to supply advice or actual operational control.
Ultrapure water is used in nuclear, gas turbine, coal, geothermal and
biomass-fired power plants. A number of process steps can be optimized and the
use of chemicals reduced with improved monitoring. The balance of the steam
cycle involves high temperature liquids and vapors which must extract heat from
high temperature corrosive combustion gases. Distribution of flow is critical
and can be optimized with better monitoring.
Air pollution control and wastewater treatment costs are rising along with the
stringency of regulations. One utility owner is planning on saving $200 million
just by a combination of optimization steps to reduce NOx. Zero liquid discharge
(ZLD) wastewater systems are now dictated in many areas. Sophisticated
monitoring is required in the dewatering and evaporation steps.
Ambient air and water monitoring is increasingly needed as plants need to
validate pollution sources. One utility was accused of being the cause of high
selenium levels in the river and had to demonstrate that the selenium
contamination was occurring upstream.
Smart valves, pumps and other components relay information which can be used to
reduce maintenance and ensure reliable operation. Instead of periodic costly
inspections, components are repaired when problems are discovered.
Lubrication systems are critical to reliable operation of wind, gas and steam
turbines as well as fans, pulverizers, compressors and other rotating components
in power plants. Monitoring pressure, flow and leakage are important.
Some of the biggest beneficiaries will be the automation system providers. GE,
Emerson, Siemens, ABB, Yokogawa and others are offering extensive packages.
Boiler system suppliers such as Doosan, BHEl, MHPS and B&W are incorporating
automation systems into their packages.
System integrators are buying and incorporating sensors. Several years ago, GE
sold its KVB Enertec group to B&W who now supplies complete continuous emissions
monitoring packages and service. Some of the large consulting and EPC companies
also have systems integration offerings. One reason is the continuous servicing
requirements which result in long-term contracts.
There are many instrument suppliers. Thermo Fisher is the largest. GE is selling
its water business which includes the former Sievers instrument group. Danaher
is one of the rumored potential purchasers of GE Water. Its Hach division is
very large in the water monitoring segment.
For more information on Air and Water Monitoring World Markets, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/106-n031.
Connecting Things, People, Intelligence, Niche Experts and Wise Crowds for Power
Industry Decisions
GE, Emerson, Siemens and many other companies are creating software to connect
things. There is a large potential for this in power generation. This potential
was reflected in a number of papers and displays at the recent PowerGen Asia
exhibition.
“We believe the success of our power generation customers will be more and more
supported by the intelligent use of data generated by ever increasing
connectivity of devices. The integration of those data with people expertise and
knowledge will create additional services in a cycle delivering unprecedented
knowledge of the behavior and potential of their assets,” said Marco Sanguineti,
Head of Technology for ABB’s Power Generation business unit.
McIlvaine recently conducted nine hours of webinars focused on a problem for one
utility. Presentations by Siemens, GE and Emerson addressed the optimization
route to a lowest total cost of ownership (TCO) solution but the participants
(wise crowd) concluded that incorporating innovative new technologies and
components would be equally important in a system which would provide the lowest
TCO.
Companies such as ABB are integrating the data from many thousands of sensors
which are monitoring thousands of pumps, valves, mixers, fans, compressors,
burners, conveyors, filters, etc. In a large utility with multiple plants, there
are hundreds of individuals with specialized knowledge that may be valuable in a
specific lowest TCO determination. As a result, there are likely to be many
thousands of people who can contribute to the decision-making process. How do
you take advantage of all this niche expertise?
Jeff Immelt of GE observed that the power industry needs to adopt the “hurry up”
attitude of Silicon Valley in developing new technology. McIlvaine believes that
this “hurry up” mode can best be achieved by decision systems which interconnect
machines with people, intelligent databases and systems, niche experts and wise
crowds. Systems have been created which provide the four knowledge needs:
Alerts, Answers, Analysis and Advancement. The newest addition has been to
supplement periodic webinars with very focused LinkedIn discussion groups. These
groups facilitate “wise crowd” decisions by addressing all the criteria needed
for a “wise crowd” to function properly.
Wise Crowd Criteria and LinkedIn Role
Criteria Description LinkedIn role
Diversity of Opinion Each person should have private information. Small LinkedIn
discussion groups lend themselves to extracting the niche expertise and unique
ideas.
Independence People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around
them. The small LinkedIn discussion groups are not subject to the peer pressure
of the large webinars. McIlvaine editors then integrate the conclusions reached
in the discussion groups.
Decentralization People can specialize and draw on local knowledge. The small
LinkedIn discussion group is the ideal way to extract the local knowledge and
benefit from niche expert participation.
Aggregation Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a
collective decision. The LinkedIn discussion groups are a bridge between
analyses and webinars which result in the collective decisions.
The LinkedIn discussion groups are an important part of the entire
interconnection system between:
• Separate individuals and divisions within a supplier conglomerate
• Separate individuals and divisions within a utility conglomerate
• Separate individuals and divisions within a consulting company
• The final interconnection between all the many individuals in each of the
above
Supplier knowledge can be transmitted through individuals who are encouraged by
management to focus on becoming more expert. These individuals will be
“rainmakers.” If they demonstrate that their company has the knowledge and the
products to provide the lowest TCO, they can be very effective in boosting
sales.
The same is true of consulting companies. However, the challenge will be to
offer just enough expertise to achieve the rainmaking without reducing the
potential actual consulting revenues.
The LinkedIn discussion groups are incorporated in three Decision Guides:
4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect
44I Coal fired Power Plant Decisions (formerly PPAQD)
59D Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Decisions
Who Should Purchase GE Water?
Hundreds of companies in the water business as well as private investors will be
considering the purchase of GE Water. The first conclusion in a cursory review
will be that this is a group of individual companies which operate independently
and are not necessarily in the same markets. There are companies selling systems
and major components, small components, instruments and consumables such as
treatment chemicals.
The management of these businesses is challenging because of their diversity.
The way you manage an effort to supply $50 cartridges is totally different than
the way you manage an effort to sell knowledge which is bundled into the price
of formulated chemicals. The management of a company which sells complete zero
liquid discharge (ZLD) systems requires skills not required in some of the other
businesses.
Danaher has been mentioned in the media as a potential purchaser. Their recent
Pall acquisition has made Danaher a major player in pharmaceutical and chemical
industry filtration. GE Water is focused more on power, oil and gas, refining
and to a lesser degree on various water-related purification. So, the industry
alignment is complimentary.
Xylem has grown the test segment of its transport, treat and test efforts. Its
instrumentation or test business is mostly in municipal water and wastewater and
compliments the GE instrumentation applications.
Other water chemical formulators such as Ecolab and Solenis and basic water
chemical suppliers such BASF and Kemira are also potential purchasers.
Any of the large companies in the air, water, liquid, gas flow and treat
businesses with an industry total revenue of $323 billion are potential
purchasers.
Air/Water/Gas, Liquid Flow and Treat Revenues
$ Millions
Product Power Fluid Municipal Industrial and Other Residential/
Commercial Total
Flow (Water)
Pumps 3 8 14 20 8 53
Valves 7 13 7 39 20 86
Subtotal 10 21 21 59 28 139
Liquid Treatment
Cartridge 0 7 1 6 7 21
Sedimentation/ Centrifugation 1 0 2 5 0 8
Cross Flow Membranes 2 0 4 3 1 10
Macrofiltration 1 0 2 4 0 7
Subtotal 4 7 9 18 8 46
Oxidation and Destruction (Water)
Biological/Oxidation/Destruction 1 0 8 4 2 15
Water/Wastewater Chemicals 5 0 9 10 0 24
Subtotal 6 0 17 14 2 39
Indoor Air Treatment
Filtration/Purification 1 2 0 3 5* 11
Stack Gas Treatment and Flow
Fabric Filter 1 0 0 5 0 6
Scrubber 0 0 1 5 0 6
Precipitator 7 0 0 1 0 8
FGD 7 0 0 0 0 7
DeNOx 6 2 0 1 0 9
Thermal/Catalytic 0 10 0 2 0 12
Fans and Compressors 4 2 2 12 5 25
Subtotal 25 14 3 26 5 73
Monitoring
Air 1 1 1 1 3 7
Water 1 1 3 2 1 8
Subtotal 2 2 4 3 4 15
Total 323
* includes vacuum bags and face masks as well as HVAC
GE Water Coverage
The GE water treatment chemicals business is of greater value as the percentage
reduction of end user knowledge to total knowledge continues to shrink. The
formulated chemicals business is more problem solving with the right combination
rather than sale of a product. Knowledge of the applications is critical. With
the development of the smart sensors, the formulators can become remote
operators or continuous advisors rather than just offering periodic advice as
part of the chemical sale. Will potential investors fully recognize this
opportunity? If they do, the potential buyer will be one who can best leverage
this very large potential. The expertise in the use of chemicals along with
filtration, valves, pumps, etc. will all create a very large remote advice,
operations and preventive maintenance revenue opportunity.
The various relevant market reports for an evaluation of this opportunity are
shown at: MARKETS
$125 Billion/yr. Power Plant IIoT Instrumentation, Software and Service
Opportunity
World electricity consumption is 25,000 terawatt hours per year. Generation of
this electricity costs $2.5 trillion per year. Machine to machine communication
in combination with remote monitoring and service has the potential to reduce
this cost by 5 percent and create a $125 billion dollar per year opportunity.
This is the latest forecast in a special ongoing analysis included in N031 Air
and Water Monitoring: World Market.
The opportunity incorporates, smart instrumentation, component monitoring,
digital data generation at the plant, software programs, remote monitoring,
third party operation and maintenance and a combination of subject matter
experts and data analytics.
Smart Instrumentation
The opportunity is shaped by the ability of sensors to accurately detect the
flow of liquids, gases, air, water and solids. The quality of the flow is also
critical. Continuous emissions monitoring systems measure the air contaminants
such as NOx, SO2 and particulate. New regulations have added the need to measure
mercury in the exhaust gas and selenium in the wastewater. The temperature,
moisture and particulate levels for lubricating fluids used in the rotating
equipment are also important.
The need for accurate injection extends to corrosion and scale inhibitors,
biocides, pH adjusters, polymers for wastewater treatment and many new chemicals
needed for air and water pollution control. These include activated carbon,
lime, limestone, ammonia and urea.
Ambient air and water measurement needs include wind measurement for wind
turbine optimization, ambient air and water measurement in areas surrounding the
plant and many predictive weather measurements for solar and wind operations.
All of these measurements are being enhanced by the development of smart
sensors. Tunable diode lasers allow measurement of O2 at critical points in the
combustion zone. The incorporation of an analysis function within the instrument
itself rather than through the distributed control system has cost advantages
and more importantly shortens response time.
Suppliers of this instrumentation are found in the McIlvaine Air and Water
Monitoring report in many categories and sub categories.
Measurement Categories Examples
Function Analysis, extraction, integration, display, services, consumables,
accessories
Medium Ambient air and water, process liquids and gases, solids, oil, injection
chemicals
Properties Measured Physical, chemical, electrical, other
Measurement Parameters Count, weight, volume, temperature, pressure,
contaminants, viscosity
Operating Principles Chemical, electrochemical, light, opacity
Mode of Use Continuous, hand held, laboratory, process
The opportunity varies widely depending on the fuel source. Coal represents the
largest potential because it is the leading type of generation and has high
needs for measurement.
Instrumentation Market Size by Medium Measured
Fuel Source Weather Water Air Process Liquids Process Gases Solids
Coal S H H M M H
Nuclear S H M H H M
Gas S M H S S S
Solar L S S S S S
Wind L S L S S S
Biomass S S L S S L
Geothermal S M L H H S
Hydro S H S S S S
L= large, M= medium, S= small
Component Monitoring
Condition monitoring of components is well established for lubrication systems
for turbines, compressors, etc. The growth opportunities are in measuring not
only the health but also the operational information of valves, pumps, filters,
separators and other components. Mann + Hummel recognizes this opportunity and
has just invested in a large filtration IIoT research center in Singapore.
Pentair, Flowserve and other pump and valve suppliers are rapidly strengthening
their component monitoring capabilities.
Digital Data Generation at the Plant
GE says that coal-fired power plants could be made approximately 4 percent more
efficient with 2.5 percent improvement in efficiencies coming from turbine and
boiler upgrades, and 1.5 percent coming from software improvements. The analysis
also found that applying all potential upgrades to coal-fired power plants can
remove 900 million metric tons of CO2 (11 percent of total coal power emissions)
- more than the annual CO2 output of the United Kingdom and France combined.
McIlvaine has conducted nine hours of webinars for PacifiCorp with presentations
by GE, Emerson, Siemens and others which pointed the way to large savings with
combustion optimization. The reduction in NOx emissions was particularly
significant.
Software Programs
The software programs include partnerships between power plant system suppliers
and specialized software providers. GE says Predix will enable GE to lead the
next generation of industrial progress, through improved manufacturing processes
and digitally manufactured products, transforming GE into a stronger and more
valuable company. GE believes its digital business will grow GE’s software and
analytics enterprise from $6 billion in 2015 to a top 10 software company by
2020. GE has purchased NEUCO who has developed neural networks to control not
only the operation of the furnace but also components such as soot blowers.
General software participants include large companies such as Intel with its
Wind River subsidiary and specialist companies such as OSIsoft and SoftDEL.
Remote Monitoring
The large gas turbine suppliers have remote monitoring centers which primarily
track the health of rotating parts. This is frequently part of the warrantee
program. However, companies such as MHPS are branching out to monitor more of
the plant’s components. MHPS just opened a remote monitoring center in the
Philippines which is monitoring coal-fired power plants. The service center can
also provide assistance to power plants not built by MHPS. In addition to its
data analysis capabilities, the center can also manage maintenance equipment and
dispatch staff in emergency situations. It will, in addition, serve as a
training hub for technicians. Every year, around 200 individuals will be picked
from both in and outside the company to transfer technical expertise on
maintenance and management.
There is a huge potential for companies such as MHPS and GE to work with other
suppliers and incorporate hundreds of individual remote monitoring programs. For
example, Nalco operates an around the clock monitoring center on water quality.
If companies such as Mann + Hummel can operate filter monitoring centers and, if
all the results are integrated for analysis and action, it will greatly improve
the support for the operators.
There is a big potential for interconnection of facilities in large utility
organizations. McIlvaine has been involved with a program for Berkshire Hathaway
Energy.
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/decisions/28-energy/1185-4s01
Duke Power has developed central systems which can for example monitor all the
pumps at its various stations. However, it is shifting away from the traditional
centralized proprietary systems and evolving to support distributed
intelligence, interoperability and IIoT. Efforts to develop its smart grid have
resulted in the enablement of these concepts through what the industry calls
OpenFMB (Open Field Message Bus).
Third Party Support for Power Plant Operations and Maintenance
Third party operation and maintenance represents the biggest revenue opportunity
for IIoT in the power industry.
GE Energy is one of the world’s largest third party providers of plant Operation
and Maintenance services, currently with more than 16,000 MW at 60 sites in 17
countries under O&M contract. Global resources combined with over 20 years of
O&M experience, enable GE to provide complete plant services across the turbine
island and balance of plant—for both GE and non-GE equipment.
Siemens, MHPS, IHI and other turbine suppliers also offer similar services.
There are a number of companies specializing in O&M including large companies
such as Wood and smaller companies such as Ethos Energy and Proenergy. Uniper
and India Power have formed a joint venture to support operations and
maintenance at Indian power plants.
Data Analytics and Subject Matter Experts
The generation of large amounts of data is not of value unless it is properly
analyzed for action. XLMPR recommends hybrid data analytics marrying the
experience based models with ones based on physics and data. The IIoT greatly
increases the capability for database models but this data needs to be molded by
experience. Subject matter experts are needed to provide the niche expertise in
each of thousands of areas. The pool of recently retired people can be tapped
for their unique combination of knowledge and availability for short
engagements.
The analysis and forecast of IIoT instrumentation, software and service
opportunities in Power Generation is included as a special report in N031 Air
and Water Monitoring: World Market.
Gas Turbine & Reciprocating Engine Market Alert
Headlines - December 21, 2016
U.S. GAS TURBINE PROJECTS
• NRG Completes Four Coal to Gas Projects and Continues Fleet Optimization
Strategy
• CALIFORNIA: Ares EIF to Sell Pio Pico Energy Center
• MICHIGAN: EthosEnergy awarded Seven-Year Contract for Operations Maintenance
Services by Rockland Capital
• NEW YORK: Siemens to supply Additional Aero-Derivative Gas Turbines to help
Power New York City
• PENNSYLVANIA: Ameresco and PIDC Partner on an Innovative Project at the Navy
Yard in Philadelphia
WORLD GAS TURBINE PROJECTS
• CHINA: MHPS Wins Order to Provide Gas Turbine Preventive Detection Services in
China
RECIPROCATING ENGINE PROJECTS
• ARGENTINA: Wärtsilä to supply a 101 MW Power Plant to Argentina
• U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: APR Energy Awarded LPG-Fired Project in U.S. Virgin
Islands
BUSINESS
• Sulzer to Acquire Control of Rotec's Gas Turbine Service Business Mitsubishi
Hitachi Power Systems Unveils Revolutionary JAC Gas Turbine
MARKETS
• Gas Turbine Owners Will Spend $313 Billion for Equipment, Repairs and Service
Next Year
These headlines are from the bi-weekly Alert series which is part of a complete
program to identify the markets and track all the projects. The details are
shown at GTRE Supplier Program.
For more information, click on 59EI Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine
Supplier Program
Air Plants and Projects Update - December 2016
AMERICAS
Chemical
Evonik Ramps up Production Capacity for Biomaterials
Grannus Selects Plant Process Equipment as EPC for California-Based Ammonia
Plant
Ashland Chemical Company Expanding in Greenville County, SC
Wacker Adding R&D at Michigan Site
Oil & Gas
MHI Named to Build Large-Scale Polyethylene Plant Project for ExxonMobil in the
USA
Jacobs Wins Contract for New MEGlobal Production Facility in Texas
Pulp & Paper
Valmet to Supply Two Tissue Production Lines to Sofidel America's New Mill in
Ohio
Sun Paper Permit Application Progressing For $1.3 Billion Arkansas Pulp Mill
Project
Finch Paper Considers $5 Million Waste Reuse Project at New York Mill
ASIA
Chemical
AkzoNobel and Atul Ltd to Set Up Monochloro Acetic Acid JV in India
Korean Polypropylene Maker Considering Two-Phase, 600,000 Ton Investment in
Vietnam
Asahi Kasei Adding Capacity in Thailand
GEA Supplies Key Technology for Lithium Processing in Australia
Iron/ Steel/ Metalworking
Bangkok Iron and Steel Works Provides FAC for New Meltshop to SMS Group
Bokaro Steel Plant Orders 130-Ton Twin Ladle Furnace
Zhejiang Nisshin Worthington Starts Up Z-Hi Reversing Cold Mill Supplied by
Primetals
Primetals to Supply New Minimill to GPH Ispat, Bangladesh
Waste-to-Energy
Shenzhen, China Planning Largest Waste-To-Energy Plant in the World
India's First Ultra High Temperature Hydrolysis Reaction Waste to Energy Plant
Six Waste-To-Energy Plants to Be Set Up Under Swachch Bharat Mission
EMEA
Chemical
Evonik Invests in Capacity Expansion for ROHACELL brand Performance Foams
A. Schulman Moves Forward with New Products, Expansions
SABIC To Build Polypropylene Pilot Plant in The Netherlands
Iron/ Steel/ Metalworking
Moon Iron & Steel, Oman, Commissions SMS Group with Supply of Complete Minimill
Oil l& Gas
CB&I Announces Award for Delayed Coker Unit
Saipem Wins $1B Two EPIC Contracts in Saudi Arabia
Mott MacDonald to Design New Xarajyan Oil Terminal
These headlines are from the monthly Alerts included in Industrial Air Plants
and Projects. For more information on this service click on Industrial Air
Plants and Projects
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com