The Future Power Plant Water Market
The future power plant water market will be larger and more profitable but will
require a major reorientation for the supplier industry. The factors shaping
this change are
• Changes in the mix among fuel sources
• Higher premium for high performance products
• The rapid deployment of new technology
• A new digital age decision process for product selection
Changes In The Mix Among Fuel Sources
It is likely that much of the electricity, heat and power in the future will be
generated locally and not transmitted long distances. In effect, the world is
going to look more the way it did in the 1920s when most power was generated by
units smaller than 100 MW. A significant portion of this energy will be
generated by combined heat and power facilities.
The power plant additions in 2020 will total 305,000 MW. However, this number is
quite misleading unless one realizes that the solar capacity is used only a
fraction of the day and that the capture of waste heat can double the equivalent
power output for fossil sources.
2020 Power Additions by Source in Equivalent Megawatts
Generator Type 2020 Electricity Additions Energy Input Equivalent Extractable
Base Load Potential % Potential Equivalent Heat and Power Likely
Combined
Heat and
Power
Gas Turbines 73,000 144,000 70 100,800 10,000
Gas Engines 7,000 17,000 70 11,900 10,000
Nuclear 15,000 30,000 70 21,000 0
Coal Utility 75,000 187,000 70 130,900 5,000
Coal Industrial 4,000 9,000 70 6,300 3,000
Biomass 5,000 11,000 70 7,700 3,000
Solar 30,000 30,000 20 6,000 0
Wind 80,000 80,000 40 32,000 0
Diesel 10,000 25,000 70 17,500 1,000
Total 305,000 533,000 334,100 32,000
The first column provides the capacity for each generation source based on
continuous operation. The second column adds in the additional capacity if the
available waste heat is converted to useful purposes. The third column indicates
the percent of this energy which could be captured. The fourth column provides
the potential equivalent heat and power if it were most efficiently utilized.
The fifth column provides the likely combined heat and power. The large central
station coal and gas turbine plants have very large amounts of waste heat. There
is no good use for this heat in the surrounding community. Attracting new
industries to these locations with the promise of low cost energy is a challenge
and will not be realistic for units started up in 2020. Solar and wind segments
generate electricity but not heat. So they are not included. Most diesel
generators are used for standby or emergency purposes and are not utilizing
waste heat.
So potential combined heat and power will be 32,000 MW and represent an
investment of $640 million.
Heat recovery is the key to an efficient CHP system. This creates a good
potential market for water treatment. An integrated waste management and energy
company in Malmö, Sweden, is using Tranter Plate Heat Exchangers to capture
waste heat from boiler flue gas condensate and cool this stream prior to
purification and discharge. Gas cleaning from the waste-to-energy boiler takes
place in a four-stage scrubber. Heat in the condensate from the top stage of the
scrubber is transferred to the district heating loop through a Tranter Model
GXD-205 exchanger. During the exchange, the scrubber condensate is cooled to a
temperature 1–2 °C (1.8–3.6°F) above the incoming district heating water.
Two other heat exchangers complete the condensate heat recovery and cooling
process. Plates for all three units were manufactured in 254 SMOTM stainless
steel (1.4547) to withstand chlorides and fluorides in the flue gas condensate.
Stainless steel heat exchanger courtesy of Tranter
Higher premium for high performance products.
Approximately 40 percent of the valves, pumps, sensors and materials used in the
power industry are classified as “high performance” by McIlvaine. This includes
both severe and critical service applications. The information generated by high
performance products will be worth more than the products themselves. This is
the derivation of a broader conclusion reached by Jeffrey Immelt of GE who
predicts that potential for machine to machine communications will be worth more
than the machines themselves.
The availability of information on product performance promises to reduce
operating cost for component owners. This provides the potential for component
companies to make better components and to sell them at higher profit margins.
The rapid deployment of new technology
Jeffrey Immelt also believes that industry needs to develop the “hurry up” pace
endemic to Silicon Valley. McIlvaine has demonstrated this accelerated pace with
a series of recent webinars for a large U.S. utility. The utility is facing an
investment of $700 million due to a sudden regulatory reversal. Rather than make
one large technology investment, the utility can combine a number of small
investments and save hundreds of millions of dollars. The decision-making
process has utilized the input from the “wise crowd” in a manner which is
semi-structured.
Some of the most valuable input has come from individuals with very narrow but
comprehensive expertise. The key to the “hurry up” pace will be to beneficially
extract the niche knowledge on processes, products, industries and geographies.
This expertise must be better exploited if the power industry is going to change
at anywhere near the rate of the semiconductor industry. Individuals instead of
retiring can focus on providing their niche expertise to the world. Product
suppliers are going to have to develop the process and application expertise
through a combination of internal or external resources. In the era of smart
products process knowledge will be increasingly important.
Consulting and service companies have very big challenges and opportunities. The
financial rewards for providing a new and better solution are substantial. The
owner will increasingly rely on outside assistance as new technology is being
rapidly deployed. On the other hand, the consulting or service company who does
not have the “hurry up” frame of mind will be in jeopardy. Consulting companies
will have to develop the niche expertise and cannot rely on the specifications
compiled for a similar project two years earlier.
A new digital age decision process for product selection
The value of the wise crowd can be tapped only if there is a structure in place
to take advantage of it. McIlvaine has created Decision Guides for technology
selection for each type of power generation. These Decision Guides are available
to any power plant owner. The organized utilization of case histories, white
papers and webinars combined with the ongoing wise crowd input from webinars and
emails is proving a unique new way of making power plant product decisions.
The wise crowd concept includes better collaboration among various groups within
supplier companies. GE, for example, is a major valve supplier but also provides
the coal-fired generators, gas turbines, gas and diesel engines and other power
generation technologies. Reduction of the $700 million U.S. utility project
investment will take place only with integration of the digital optimization
system, combustion modifications and new air pollution technologies employing
unique combinations of chemicals. More than a dozen of GE groups in Europe and
various locations in the U.S. need to collaborate to provide the best
combination of products for this project. Since a number of chemicals as well as
other liquids and gases are involved, the smart valves will play a critical
role.
Other suppliers are divisions of companies which are operators of power plants.
Collaboration among these divisions is also highly desirable. NSSL Limited is a
major valve manufacturer. It is part of NECO Industries which owns manufacturing
plants and is constructing new coal-fired power plants. These power plants will
be subject to new environmental regulations limiting SO2, particulate, and NOx
to low levels. The valve requirements will be different than for existing power
plants which have not had to meet tough standards. Collaboration between
divisions will ensure that the best valves be chosen for the new requirements.
Changes in the mix among fuel sources and the rapid deployment of new technology
will change the supplier industry. A new digital age decision process for
product selection will provide a vehicle for change. The end result will be a
higher premium for high performance smart products.
Increase Sales to the Coal-fired Power Generators
The Asian market for coal-fired power plant equipment is going to be very large.
The new regulations on environmental control in India will create a large market
in the next few years. Indonesia and Vietnam are planning over 100,000 MW of
coal-fired power plants. China, Japan, Europe and the U.S. are upgrading
existing coal-fired power plants McIlvaine has a complete program to help m
suppliers succeed in this market:
Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects
The specific program would include:
Detailed forecasting of your product is provided in one of the following
reports:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets
42EI Utility Tracking System: Tracks all new projects and every existing power
plant worldwide.
44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions (Power Plant Flow Control and Treatment)
This service has a free child web for power plants with a decision guide for
each product and interface with power plants around the world
Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a
Weekly Basis
UTILITY E-ALERT
Here are some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert – September 16, 2016
#1290 – September 16, 2016
Table of Contents
COAL – US
• Energy Secretary Moniz states Administration working to keep Coal a part of
Low Carbon Energy
COAL – WORLD
• Saurashtra Power Plant (India) must revise Design to meet Air Pollution
Regulations
• BHEL is delivering a number of Power Plants with Precipitators
• More BHEL Power Projects
• India keeps adding, delaying, and canceling Coal Projects
• Sri Lanka cancels Coal-fired Power Plant Project with NTPC
• New Coal Plants in Victoria, South Australia under scrutiny
• NEPRA grants license to China Power for 1,320 MW Coal-fired Power Plant at Hub
Balochistan, Pakistan
• Japan to build Two Coal-fired Power Plants North of Tokyo
The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects,
regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but
is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every
plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
DATE HOT TOPIC HOUR AND DECISION GUIDE SCHEDULE
The opportunity to interact on important issues
TBA
Markets Food - Analysis of 12 separate applications within food and beverage
with analysis of valve, pump, compressor, filter, analyzer and chemical options;
impact of new technologies such as forward osmosis.
TBA
Markets Municipal Wastewater - Quality of pumps, valves, filters, and analyzers
in Chinese and Asian plants; new pollutant challenges; water purification for
reuse.
TBA
Markets Mobile Emissions -Reduction in CO, VOCs, and particulate in fuels, oils,
and air used in on and off road vehicles; impact of RDE and failure of NOx traps
and the crisis in Europe created by the focus on clean diesel.
Click here to Register for the Webinars
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com