Detailed Forecasting of Pump and Valve Markets, Prospects and Projects Creates a New Route to Market

Two hundred companies buy most of the world’s industrial pumps.  The large projects account for much of the total. The large purchasers are moving to global sourcing.  ArcelorMittal with 200 steel mills and mines is centralizing sourcing so that it can make the right total cost of ownership decisions.

The international suppliers are the beneficiaries of this trend.  Here is the market route:

·       Utilize McIlvaine detailed forecasting of markets, projects and projects to identify the opportunities.

·       Understand the customer needs and convey the reasons why the offering provides lowest ownership costs.

Here are some project analyses in McIlvaine Oil, Gas and Refining Projects:

Petronas Selects Axens Technologies for Malaysia’s RAPID Project

Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS), has selected Axens as a technology provider for PETRONAS’ Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (RAPID) project located in Pengerang, Johor, Malaysia. RAPID is part of PETRONAS’ Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) development, which includes six major associated facilities namely the Pengerang Co-generation Plant, Re-gasification Terminal 2, Air Separation Unit, Raw Water Supply Project, Liquid Bulk Terminal as well as central and shared utilities and facilities. RAPID is estimated to cost US$16 billion while the associated facilities will involve an investment of about US$11 billion. PIC is poised for its refinery start-up by early 2019.

Regasification terminal will generate a cryogenic pump opportunity of $1 million and butterfly valve opportunity of $0.5 million.  Total flow control and treatment opportunities for the project are over $200 million.

Lloyds Energy awards KBR Eurasian FLNG FEED Contract

KBR, Inc. has been awarded a near-shore floating LNG Front End Engineering Design (FEED) contract by Lloyds Energy Ltd. Under this contract, KBR will provide integrated topsides and hull engineering design services for a nominal 2.5 million TPA floating natural gas liquefaction plant (FLNG). Start-up of the project facilities is expected to take place in 2019.

This project will add about one percent to world LNG capacity and create a $1 million opportunity for cryogenic pumps and $400,000 opportunity for butterfly valves.

Keppel contracts 3rd Floating Liquefaction Facility Conversion Worth $684 Million

Keppel Shipyard Limited (Keppel Shipyard), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M), has signed a contract worth approximately US$684 million with Golar Gandria N.V., a subsidiary of Golar LNG Limited (Golar LNG), to perform the conversion of a Moss type Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier, the GANDRIA, into a Golar Floating Liquefaction (GoFLNG) facility. Keppel Shipyard will once again engage Black & Veatch to provide design, procurement and commissioning support services for the topsides, as well as the liquefaction process utilizing its established PRICO^® technology. The GANDRIA is a 126,000 cubic meter Moss LNG carrier. 

Each ship is a $900,000 opportunity for cryogenic pumps and a $300,000 opportunity for butterfly valves.

For more information on Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

Power Plant FGD Pumps Are a Fast Growing Segment in the Pump Industry

The power industry has been on a spending spree for new coal-fired power plants. Led by China this spree has finally peaked but will remain at a high level thanks to India, Vietnam and Indonesia which are embarked on ambitious programs. Total purchases of pumps by the power industry will grow modestly from $3 billion this year to $3.2 billion in 2020.  Centrifugal pumps will account for two-thirds of the purchases.

Top of Form

Eighty percent of the pump purchases for the power industry will be made by less than one hundred corporations. PLN in Indonesia will install more new coal-fired boilers than all the utilities in Europe and the U.S. combined.  Electricity Vietnam (EVN) will build twice as many as PLN.  Several Indian utilities will also build large numbers of new plants.

Sales in Asia will exceed other continents due to both the quantity of new power generation and the choice of fuel.  Most new capacity in Asia will be coal-fired where in the U.S., the new capacity will be gas-fired.  Coal generators spend three times as much for pumps compared to gas turbine power plants. Pumps are used for cooling water, ultrapure water, steam, FGD recycling slurry and wastewater treatment. 

The fastest growing segment of the market has been pumps for flue gas desulfurization (FGD).  The reason is that FGD systems are being installed in many older power plants as well as most new ones.

Seventeen coal-fired power plant operators have purchased FGD pumps for 725,000 MW of coal-fired boilers. This represents 56 percent of the total installed capacity.  The selection of pumps is typically jointly made by the owner and the supplier. The supply of FGD systems is also concentrated with just nine companies accounting for 45 percent of the total.  Suppliers of FGD pumps can focus on less than one hundred companies to address 90 percent of the available market.

Over the next five years, 318,000 MW of FGD systems and pumps are forecast to be installed on new plants.  The five largest purchasers are expected to purchase 33 percent of the total.  Twenty companies are expected to purchase 75 percent of the total in terms of MW and total dollars.  New players in Vietnam and Indonesia plus large owners in China will be the main buyers.  So concentration of expenditures in the top one hundred companies will continue.

FGD systems require small pumps to recirculate lime slurry to ball mills and provide mist eliminator wash.  Metering pumps are required for chemicals to scaling in the scrubbers and to prevent mercury remissions. Scrubber underflow pumps deliver the gypsum through hydrocyclones to the belt filters.  The gypsum wash water is pumped through a wastewater treatment system with additional transfer and metering pumps.  The extremely large pumps are used for recirculating the calcium sulfite/sulfate slurries. The FGD recirculating pump requirements can exceed 400,000 gpm for single plant pump orders ranging from $200,000 to $4 million.  

The system supplier often selects and furnishes the pump to the power plant. There are less than one hundred suppliers of FGD systems. The Chinese suppliers along with a few U.S. and Japanese companies dominate the FGD market.

Suppliers of FGD Systems

A number of Chinese companies have supplied more than 50,000 MW of FGD systems. One supplier has installed more than 100,000 MW.  A number of these systems are through licenses with international companies. The analysis is based on the actual supplier rather than the licensor.  MHPS, MET, B&W, Alstom and some others have large numbers of systems when both the direct supply and licensed totals are included. The Chinese license payments are dropping as a percentage of revenue.  Design improvements are being initiated in China. As a result, suppliers need to deal directly with the Chinese companies and not the licensors.

Many pump companies supply the smaller pumps used in FGD systems but few companies have been able to meet the requirements for recirculation of the slurry.  Eight 50,000 gpm slurry pumps are needed to meet the requirements of a large plant.  Only a few companies have abrasion and corrosion resistant slurry pumps capable of this flow rate.  Weir, KSB and Duechting have been major suppliers but are now being joined by Asian based companies in the pursuit of this market.

McIlvaine has introduced a program incorporating detailed forecasting of total potential sales revenue for each major prospect, project and OEM purchaser of pumps in each industry.  The program is based on the detailed forecasting in N019 Pumps World Market.   The power segment program also includes 42EI Utility Tracking System.   For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.

McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours and Recordings

McIlvaine webinars offer the opportunity to view the latest presentations and join discussions while sitting at your desk. Hot Topic Hours cater to the end users as well as suppliers while the Market Updates cater to the suppliers and investors.  Since McIlvaine records and provides streaming media access to these webinars there is a treasure trove of value only a click away. McIlvaine webinars are free to certain McIlvaine service subscribers. There is a charge for others.  Hot Topic Hours are free to owner/operators.  Sponsored webinars provide insights to particular products and services.  They are free.  Recordings can be immediately viewed from the list provided below.

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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com