Using Market Research to Target Prospects

Detailed Forecasting of Pumps Increases Accuracy and Facilitates Precise Estimates of Individual Project Opportunities

The standard Pump and Valve World Market reports by McIlvaine Company include 40,000 quarterly forecasts with divisions by each country, industry and product type.  McIlvaine also offers more detailed options which provide many additional revenue forecasts per quarter. There are three advantages to the extended forecasts.

·       Strategic: detailed forecasts are more accurate and can be directly related to the products offered by the valve or pump supplier

·       Sales: detailed forecasts make it possible to assign order values to all the large projects and to prioritize them

·       Facilitates cooperation among management, sales and engineering

McIlvaine segments the pump market by pump type and application for every country of the world. It is then possible to further segment the market by state and even by project. 

U.S. Municipal Wastewater Pump Market $ millions

 The market for each pump type can then be forecast for regions and states.

McIlvaine tracks major projects and can determine the potential pump order value.  The following display utilizes the detailed forecasts and some of the projects reported in the McIlvaine North American Wastewater Project Alert for September 15, 2015.

State and Project Forecasting

State forecast is in green $ millions for new and after-market (AM).

Project Pump order potential is in red $ millions.

CALIFORNIA  Centrifugal  $80 new, $70 AM, diaphragm $10 new, $10AM, reciprocating $7 new and $8 AM, rotary $17 new and 13 AM

Santa Cruz requesting Bids for WWTP Project   0.4

$48 Million for Pinole WWTP Upgrade 0.6

$490 Million for Sacramento’s Echo Wastewater Project  2.0

CONNECTICUT Centrifugal $8 new, $7 AM, diaphragm $1 new, $1 AM, reciprocating $0.7 new and $0.8 AM, rotary $1.7 new and $1.3 AM

$378 Million approved to Upgrade WWTPs  3.5

MARYLAND Centrifugal $16 new, $14 AM, diaphragm $2 new, $2 AM, reciprocating $1.4 new and $1.6 AM, rotary $2.4 new and $2.6 AM

Ocean City requesting Bids for WWTP Pumps  0.3  Fairbanks Morse or equal

NEBRASKA Centrifugal $4 new, $3.5 AM, diaphragm $0.5 new, $0.5  AM, reciprocating $0.4 new and $0.4 AM, rotary $0.9 new and $0.7 AM

     Lincoln requesting Bids for WWT System Pumps Replacement 0.3  two raw sewage pumps

NEW YORK Centrifugal  $40 new, $35 AM, diaphragm $5 new, $5 AM, reciprocating $3.5 new and $4 AM, rotary $8.5 new and $6.5 AM

     $35.4 Million for Wastewater Project in Westchester County  0.3

OHIO Centrifugal  $30 new, $20 AM, diaphragm $4 new, $4 AM, reciprocating $2 new and $3 AM, rotary $6 new and $5 AM

     Franklin County begins WWTP Project 0.2

PENNSYLVANIA Centrifugal  $29 new, $20 AM, diaphragm $4 new  $4 AM, reciprocating $2 new and $3 AM, rotary $6 new and $5 AM

     Bethel Park requesting Bids for WWTP Upgrade 0.2

Curwensville moving forward with WWTP Project  0.1

Shippensburg to expand WWTP 0.1

LNG Example

Special pumps and valves are needed for cryogenic applications. Centrifugal pumps and butterfly valves are widely utilized.  The standard forecasts divide a $6 billion market for centrifugal pumps and a $700 million market for butterfly valves in oil and gas by country. With a system which delivers one hundred times more detail, these segments are further broken down into LNG vs. other oil and gas sectors and into cryogenic vs. non-cryogenic.  Furthermore, the forecasts are segmented by the three types of operations: liquefaction, transport and regasification.

In each segment the actual number of pumps and valves can be determined for a specific facility or tanker.  With the price of each valve and pump, the project order opportunity can be determined.  With this detailed forecasting it is possible to assign values to each project in the McIlvaine 71EI Oil, Gas, Shale, Refining E-Alert.  Here are three examples from the September 15 issue:

Petronas Selects Axens Technologies for Malaysia’s RAPID Project

Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS), has selected Axens as a technology provider for PETRONAS’ Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (RAPID) project located in Pengerang, Johor, Malaysia. RAPID is part of PETRONAS’ Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) development, which includes six major associated facilities namely the Pengerang Co-generation Plant, Re-gasification Terminal 2, Air Separation Unit, Raw Water Supply Project, Liquid Bulk Terminal as well as central and shared utilities and facilities.  RAPID is estimated to cost US$16 billion while the associated facilities will involve an investment of about US$11 billion. PIC is poised for its refinery start-up by early 2019.

The regasification terminal will generate a cryogenic pump opportunity of $1 million and butterfly valve opportunity of $0.5 million.  Total flow control and treatment opportunities for the project are over $200 million.

Lloyds Energy awards KBR Eurasian FLNG FEED Contract

KBR, Inc. has been awarded a near-shore floating LNG Front End Engineering Design (FEED) contract by Lloyds Energy Ltd. Under this contract, KBR will provide integrated topsides and hull engineering design services for a nominal 2.5 million TPA floating natural gas liquefaction plant (FLNG). Start-up of the project facilities is expected to take place in 2019.

This project will add about 1 percent to world LNG capacity and create a $1 million opportunity for cryogenic pumps and $400,000 opportunity for butterfly valves.

Keppel contracts 3rd Floating Liquefaction Facility Conversion Worth $684 Million

Keppel Shipyard Limited (Keppel Shipyard), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M), has signed a contract worth approximately US$684 million with Golar Gandria N.V., a subsidiary of Golar LNG Limited (Golar LNG), to perform the conversion of a Moss type Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier, the GANDRIA, into a Golar Floating Liquefaction (GoFLNG) facility. Keppel Shipyard will once again engage Black & Veatch to provide design, procurement and commissioning support services for the topsides, as well as the liquefaction process utilizing its established PRICO^® technology. The GANDRIA is a 126,000 cubic meter Moss LNG carrier. 

Each ship is a $900,000 opportunity for cryogenic pumps and a $300,000 opportunity for butterfly valves.

McIlvaine can provide you with a program to deliver the project, State, and product forecasts with a combination of services such as the Pump and Valve market reports, Oil and Gas and Municipal E-Alerts, and our custom analyses by State, product, etc.  For more information on this program contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com or by phone at 847-784-0012 ext. 112.

Utility E Alert Tracks Billions Of Dollars Of New Coal-fired Power Plants On A Weekly Basis

Many of the new coal-fired power plants in planning or early construction are in Asia.  Here are headlines from the Utility E-Alert last week:

·        Sri Lanka plans Coal-fired Power Plants in South

·        Three International Companies submit Tender for Rampal Coal-fired Power Project

·        Carbon Offsets Plan could clear the way for Coal-fired Power Plants in British Columbia

·        Valmet to supply FGD and Denitrification Installation for CIECH Soda Polska SA

·        MET awarded Contract for ESP upgrade for a Coal-fired Utility Boiler in Caribbean

·        Environmental Clearance granted for imported Coal for 1,980 MW Coal-fired Ghatampur Power Station in Uttar Pradesh, India

·        Proposed Shivee-Ovoo Coal-fired Power Plant at Shivee Ovoo Coal Mine in Mongolia

·        China Datang planning Two-Unit Ultra-Supercritical Coal-fired Power Plant in Anhui Province

·        TBKi supplies Limestone for Indonesian FGD

·        Shenhua Group planning 2,000 MW Ultra-Supercritical Coal-fired Power Station for Hefei, China

·        Two additional Subcritical Coal-fired Units planned for Huaibei Guo'an Power Station

·        Daihai-3 1,200 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

·        Phase V of Expansion of Coal-fired Tuoketuo Power Station planned by Datang

·        China Datang proposing 2,000 MW Coal-fired Power Plant for Datang Zhunge’er Al-Si-Ti

·        Emerson wins Order from NTPC for Automation Technologies for Two 800 MW Supercritical Units

·        Indonesia is behind other Asian Countries relative to NO_x and SO_x reduction

·        China adding 20,000 MW/yr for next 10 Years

·        Japan to build 40 New Coal-fired Power Plants

We are also tracking air pollution projects such as FGD projects by Doosan in Vietnam and new regulations in the U.S.

§  Effluent Guidelines to be released Next Week

§  Hamon Bookings down in First Half

§  TECO Energy closes the sale of its TECO Coal Subsidiary

§  Doosan is a Major APC Supplier in Asia

For more information on this weekly Utility E-Alert which is only $950/yr click on: 41F Utility E-Alert

McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours and Recordings

McIlvaine webinars offer the opportunity to view the latest presentations and join discussions while sitting at your desk. Hot Topic Hours cater to the end users as well as suppliers while the Market Updates cater to the suppliers and investors.  Since McIlvaine records and provides streaming media access to these webinars there is a treasure trove of value only a click away. McIlvaine webinars are free to certain McIlvaine service subscribers. There is a charge for others.  Hot Topic Hours are free to owner/operators.  Sponsored webinars provide insights to particular products and services.  They are free.  Recordings can be immediately viewed from the list provided below.

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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com