WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
• Gas Turbine Webinar to Cover Markets and IIoT on May 23rd
• $180 billion Market for Combust, Flow and Treat for Gas Turbines
• Accurate Forecasting of the Combust, Flow and Treat Markets Would Cost $2
billion
• Power Plant Cross Flow Membrane Revenue Opportunity to Exceed $1.2 billion by
2025
Gas Turbine Webinar to Cover Markets and IIoT on May 23rd
A McIlvaine Webinar on May 23rd will cover the market factors shaping the gas
turbine market (see article below). Some examples of current projects will be
discussed along with the trends toward remote O&M and third-party operation.
Here are the headlines in our recent Alert
GAS TURBINE & RECIPROCATING ENGINE
MARKET ALERT APRIL 2018
GAS TURBINES - U.S.
• FLORIDA: Duke Energy Florida nears Completion of State-of-the-Art Natural Gas
Plant
• OKLAHOMA: OG&E completes Mustang Energy Center
• SOUTH CAROLINA: Cleaner, High-Tech Natural Gas Plant in South Carolina now
benefiting 2.5 million Duke Energy Customers
GAS TURBINES - WORLD
• AFGANISTAN: Bayat Power Sign Agreement Approving Bayat-1 Power Project
• ITALY: GE and Edison/EDF Group Sign Milestone Agreement to Optimize Power
Plant Fleet Infrastructure at Italy's Candela Power Plant
• MALAYSIA: GE Signs Service Agreement for GE 9HA.02 Technology at
1,440-Megawatt Combined-Cycle Power Plant in Malaysia
• PAKISTAN: Haveli Bahadur Shah Power Plant Nears Completion as SEPCOIII and GE
Power Successfully Conclude Reliability Run Test
SENEGAL: Wärtsilä 130 MW Flexicycle Power Plant will help Senegal Lower Energy
Costs and Integrate More Renewable Energy
RECIPROCATING ENGINES - WORLD
• PERU: MAN Diesel & Turbo and Telemenia supply the "Island in the Jungle" with
Energy
• RUSSIA: GE Signed a Large Supply Agreement for Jenbacher Gas Engines in Russia
BUSINESS
• MHPS Americas Launches New Power & Energy Solutions Business
• MHPS and PWPS Join Forces to Form Turbomachinery Powerhouse
• GE's Advanced Gas Path Upgrades Generate $775 Million in Total Customer Value
Annually
To register for the May 23 webinar click on Free Market Webinars
$180 billion Market for Combust, Flow and Treat for Gas Turbines
Operators of simple cycle and combined cycle gas turbine plants will spend $180
billion per year for hardware, consumables, instrumentation and services on an
annual basis over the next 10 years.
The industry capacity worldwide will only be growing at 3 percent per year.
However, there will be upgrades to improve efficiency and meet environmental
regulations plus replacement of valves, pumps and other hardware which bring
yearly expenditures for outside services and hardware to $180 billion /yr.
Some of the key findings in the McIlvaine research for several services is
• Gas turbine capacity will grow faster than coal capacity but installed coal
capacity will continue to exceed that of gas.
• Solar and wind capacity will grow at a faster rate than gas but will still
account for a minority share of world generation capacity.
• New materials and components can be acquired to improve plant efficiency and
reduce costs even in a frequent cycling environment where flow accelerated
corrosion and other challenges are encountered.
• A number of simple cycle plants will be upgraded with a steam cycle.
• Zero liquid discharge wastewater systems are being employed where water is
scarce and or discharge emission limits are stringent.
• Municipal wastewater will be increasingly used as a water source.
• The valve and pump opportunity at existing plants when including both
replacements and repairs will be six times greater than the new plant
opportunity.
• Problems such as encountered with desuperheaters will require substantial
investment.
• Costs of new SCR and replacement catalyst will be significant.
• Third party O&M of gas turbine power plants will accelerate based on low cost
of sensors, wireless transmitters and improving value of data analytics.
• The largest power plant owners and third-party operators will account for most
of the purchases.
Details on the future markets and identification of existing plants and tracking
of new projects is included [RM1] in 59EI Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine
Supplier Program
A decision program for feedwater and wastewater treatment for gas turbine plants
is included in 59D Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Decisions
The opportunity for remote O&M and advisory services is analyzed in N031
Industrial IOT and Remote O&M
For information on custom reports contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112
Accurate Forecasting of the Combust, Flow and Treat Markets Would Cost $2
billion
Detailed and accurate forecasting of the Combust Flow and Treat (CFT) market is
very expensive. A big investment cannot be justified just to ascertain whether a
market could be promising. The casual inquirer can benefit from relatively
inexpensive reports to indicate whether detailed study is desirable. However, a
supplier who should be basing his business plan around accurate forecasting can
afford and should invest in the appropriate research.
A company with a superior dissolved oxygen monitor paid McIlvaine Company
$100,000 just for a study relating to that device. For just $4500 they could
have purchased the McIlvaine IIoT and Remote O&M report with forecasts for
control, guide and measure including a segment on liquid measure with 10,000
forecasts. Rather than use the report to guesstimate the DO opportunity the
company realized the value in the greatly improved accuracy of a focused report.
When you consider that this is just one of 20,000 or more niches in the CFT
industry the cost for accurate forecasting of all segments would be more than $2
billion.
The McIlvaine Company has many published market reports on various aspects of
the market for CFT hardware, consumables, and instrumentation. These standard
reports range from $3000 to $5000/yr and are continually updated. Some have been
continually updated and revised for 40 years. How accurate are they compared to
alternatives? The best evaluation tool is to chart the inaccuracy level Actual/
estimate for both the total forecast and for a 1 percent segment for the various
alternatives.
Over the last few years there has been a large increase in the number of reports
available on CFT subjects. Some are just extractions of investor presentations
by CFT companies and they mix apples and oranges by combining forecasts for
products which would seem to be part of one market (home furnace electrostatic
precipitators vs industrial) but when lumped together are not valuable to
purchasers. These reports are therefore subject to a 400 percent inaccuracy
level for the total numbers and infinitely large inaccuracies for a 1 percent
segment.
Another category would be highly respected reports published every year or two
and widely quoted by CFT companies in their investor presentations. These
reports are top down analyses with reliance on industry and government
statistics plus interviews which give a consensus perspective. One of the
problems with consensus is that it can be wrong or inapplicable. History books
report that 20 million Chinese were killed by the Japanese in the early
occupation years. The truth is that this number was just fabricated as part of a
publicity release to gain sympathy for the Chinese resistance.
One highly respected publisher of a CFT report was acquired by another. The
first revised report by the new company showed a Chinese market much higher than
the previous report. This is one of the risks of top down forecasting. There may
have been only a 20 percent difference in the world numbers but a 100%
difference in the Chinese numbers. Nevertheless, these reports have an accuracy
level high enough to make them valuable for the casual inquirer or for the
advocate who is looking for a source to confirm the attractiveness of his plan.
Many firms commission management consultants to provide very detailed analyses
of CFT subjects. These consultants can charge hundreds of thousands of dollars
for one report. The problem is that the most capable general consultants do not
have the knowledge to execute bottom up analyses. No matter how many interviews
are conducted the results are not going to be as reliable as can be accomplished
with bottom up forecasting.
The McIlvaine reports benefit from liberal inclusion of bottom up forecasting
but still include substantial top down forecasting to maintain a competitive
price. The question the would-be purchaser should ask is whether a 10 percent
inaccuracy in the total numbers and a 100 percent or higher inaccuracy on a 1
percent segment is the right balance between cost and value.
Most suppliers have a Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) which is only a
portion of the Serviceable Available Market (SAM). Furthermore, many of their
investment and management decisions will be built on their understanding of some
of the 1 percent segments and not just the whole. These are the typical
McIlvaine clients for custom research. Projects are often based on a McIlvaine
multi-client report as a foundation and then detailed investigation of selected
narrow market segments to provide the actionable information needed.
The McIlvaine goal is to bring down the cost of bottom up forecasting. The
Advanced Forecasting initiative is to determine all the bottom level
intelligence in a manner which can be used for all detailed forecasting. This
means evaluating each process in each industry and determining the present and
future use of each combust, flow and treat product. This has been accomplished
for all CFT products in coal fired boiler markets based on determining the
capacity in megawatts (MW) of each plant around the world. Then factors relating
to the market per MW are created for new, replace and repair sub segments. A
similar effort has been made for gas turbines.
McIlvaine has made great progress in other industries where the variation from
plant to plant is minor. This includes semiconductors, pulp and paper, steel
making and refining. It is a greater challenge in mining, but it can be done by
just segmenting by ore type. The food and pharmaceutical industries are more
challenging.
The bottom up understanding is most difficult to obtain in the chemical industry
where there are large numbers of processes to create a wide variety of end
products. McIlvaine is approaching this segment by segment and has recently
analyzed the processes and operators in chlorine, isocyanates, urea, nitric acid
and fertilizers. The bottom level output is the projected capital and installed
investment in each major plant in each industry segment. So, a company such as
BASF has to be dissected based on its production of TDI as well as other major
chemical products.
For more information on the multi-client market reports click on
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets
For more information on Advanced Forecasting and a 5-step business program click
on www.mcilvainecompany.com
For questions about custom consulting contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112
Power Plant Cross Flow Membrane Revenue Opportunity to Exceed $1.2 billion by
2025
Power plants around the world are increasingly turning to contaminated water and
seawater as a water source. They are also widely adopting zero liquid discharge
designs to recirculate rather than discharge wastewater. Cross flow membranes
are used extensively for both water and wastewater treatment in power plants. By
2025 this opportunity will exceed $1 billion segmented as follows.
Power Plant Cross Flow Membrane Revenues $ 2025
Product $ millions
Cross Flow Equipment 400
Cross Flow Balance of System 300
Replacement Membranes 200
Remote O&M and Service 300
Total 1200
The following factors will shape the market
• Many of the new power plants will be in Asian countries without large fresh
water resources.
• Desalination for drinking water is being combined with water for power plants.
• Zero liquid discharge retrofits are being implemented in China, the U.S. and
other countries where water discharge emission limits have become more
stringent.
• Most power plants are within 100 miles of a major municipal wastewater plant.
• Treated municipal wastewater use in power plants is frequently the lowest cost
option.
• Large power plants in the Middle East are being built with reverse osmosis
seawater desalination for both power and drinking purposes.
• The cost of cross flow membrane technology is shrinking.
• All power plants use a combination of RO, UF, and MF to treat boiler feedwater.
• The power generated from coal, natural gas and nuclear will continue to
increase.
• The opportunity for remote monitoring and advisory services will be
substantial.
• There will be a $300 million market for balance of system components such as
pumps, energy recovery, valves, piping and engineering.
• 15 major power plant operators will purchase 55% of all the cross-flow
membrane products.
Details on the world markets for cross-flow equipment and consumables are found
at N020 RO, UF, MF World Market
Details on existing and proposed coal fired plants and nuclear plants are
included in 42EI Utility Tracking System
Details on gas turbines and combined cycle plants are found at 59EI Gas Turbine
and Reciprocating Engine Supplier Program
A decision program for feedwater and wastewater treatment for coal fired plants
is included in 44I Coal Fired Power Plant Decisions
The opportunity for remote O&M and advisory services for membrane systems is
analyzed in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M
For information on custom reports contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112
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