Asia Will Be Leading Cartridge Purchaser By 2019
Sales of liquid cartridges in Asia will reach $6.6 billion by 2019 and account
for 36 percent of all cartridges. This is the conclusion reached by the
McIlvaine Company in Cartridge Filters: World Market. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Cartridge Revenues ($ Millions)
Continent 2019
Total 18,123
Africa 565
Americas 6,268
Asia 6,627
Europe 4,663
A decade ago Asia represented a small portion of the market. However, its growth
has surpassed the other regions for the following reasons.
• Rising incomes and demand for pure water has greatly increased residential and
commercial use of point-of-entry as well as point-of-use filters.
• The expansion of coal-fired power has generated large investments in boiler
feedwater and cooling tower filters.
• The rise to dominance of semiconductor, photovoltaics and flat panel
manufacturing has led to big expenditures in ultrapure water filters.
• Even though Asia still trails in proprietary drug manufacture, the substantial
increase in generics production makes it a significant market.
• The large numbers of consumers and the demand for purity has caused rapid
growth in filters for the food and beverage industry.
• The chemical industry in Asia has grown and will continue to grow at a faster
pace than ROW.
• Refinery construction in Asia has and will continue to be growing faster than
other areas.
• Pulp and paper production in Asia will continue to outstrip ROW.
• Development of Asian manufacturing facilities by international suppliers has
reduced Asian imports and increased exports.
• The coal-to-liquids and coal-to-gas investments promise to ensure growth of
cartridge sales in the next five years.
For more information on Cartridge Filters: World Market, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/117-n024.
Industrial Valve Revenues Will Rise To Between $65 - $75 Billion By 2020
In 2014, Industrial valve sales were less than $57 billion. By 2020, revenues
will rise to between $65 - $75 billion, according to the latest forecast from
the McIlvaine Company in Industrial Valves: World Market.
(www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Inability to precisely predict revenues is due not only to the obvious factors
such as general economic and population growth, but to variables in the process
options. Valve investments vary from option to option. Using power generation as
an example - if coal is considered as the basis for valve purchases, nuclear
purchases of valves will be higher and gas turbines lower.
Valve Revenues/MW
Nuclear 1.5
Coal 1
Gas Turbine/Combined Cycle 0.4
Efforts by environmentalists to reduce reliance on coal are falling on deaf ears
in Asia. The cost and safety concerns about nuclear power are under scrutiny.
Gas turbine revenues are going to rise at a faster rate than other options but
from a relatively small base. It would take large double-digit gains to offset
the valve purchases for other options.
The biggest variable presently affecting valve revenues is the choice of oil and
gas extraction method. There are large differences in valve revenues depending
on the choice.
Valve Revenues/bbl of Oil Equivalent
Subsea and CTL 4
Unconventional, Shale, Tar Sands, CBM 3
Conventional 1
The price of oil has been cut in half from highs in 2014 of over $100/barrel. An
increase in conventional production at the expense of subsea and other
unconventional options would result in smaller valve revenues.
Valve sales for oil and gas will be negatively impacted by the lower prices. The
question is: What is the magnitude and duration? Oil prices have always cycled.
When prices fall, the highest cost producers cease activity. Ultimately, this
creates shortages and prices rise.
Producers who will drop out in the short-term are operating on the following
realities:
Exploration 30-40% of total cost/bbl
Development and Production 60-70% of total cost/bbl
Decline Rates 5-30%/yr. (production from a specific well)
Exploration has been estimated to be around $30/bbl for a new source. So at
$50/barrel, the exploration is going to drop substantially. However, exploration
accounts for a relatively small percentage of the total valve revenues.
Development includes drilling new wells in areas which have already been
explored. So at $50/barrel, there will be justification for this investment. The
cost of operating existing wells is small. Thus this production is unaffected.
The decline rate is the key factor in the rebound of prices and valve revenues.
Averages of 10-15%/yr. have been cited for the industry. If no new wells were
drilled, the flow would drop by 20 or 30% within just two years. The decline
rate for shale sources in the U.S. is being debated. The ability of conventional
suppliers in the Middle East to raise production from existing wells is also in
question.
It is likely that demand will continue to rise. The lower oil prices and booming
economies in Asia and the U.S. will contribute to that rise. So imbalances in
supply/demand and potential shortages will lead to the next round of oil price
increases and investment in unconventional sources.
Valve revenues will also be impacted by technology developments. The cost of
direct coal-to-liquids could be as low as $40/barrel. If so, China would
dominate the world energy picture. There are continuing developments in the
extraction of oil and gas from shale. The cost of unconventional extraction
rises as old wells need enhanced recovery, artificial lifts and other
investments. As the cost of unconventional extraction is reduced, the margin
between the two is narrowed. The result is less ability to manipulate prices by
conventional producers.
Valve performance improvements are another factor which would positively impact
valve revenues. There are lots of problems with subsea valves. Operators will be
willing to pay more for valves which are more reliable under the most extreme
conditions.
Other industries purchasing valves will be positively impacted by lower oil
prices. So in the longer term, a decline in oil and gas valve revenues will be
offset by gains in the chemical, steel, mining and other industries. The picture
changes continually. McIlvaine revises its long-term forecasts at least once
every quarter and more often if events so dictate.
For more information on Industrial Valves: World Market, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/115-n028
Headlines for Utility E-Alert – January 9, 2015
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1205 – January 9, 2015
Table of Contents
COAL – US
• NV Energy retires Three 100 MW Coal-fired Units at Reid Gardner
• Public Service Company of New Hampshire seeks reimbursement for Merrimack
Station Scrubber
• Indiana Michigan Power nears Permit for Rockport Unit 1 SCR Project
• New Mexico Regulators prepare to consider Future of Coal-fired Power Plant
• Duke announces complete Ash excavation at W.S. Lee in South Carolina
COAL – WORLD
• Torishima receives Orders for Cooling Water Pumps for ZETES III in Turkey
• Vietnam approves $800 Million Contract with Sumitomo on Power Plant Expansion
GAS/OIL – US
• Decision on Oxford, Connecticut Natural Gas-fired Power Plant required by May
• Construction begins on 799 MW Gas-fired Power Plant in Ohio
• Initial Approval for New 915 MW Combined Cycle Rockwood Energy Center
• Entergy announces completion of New Combined Cycle Power Plant in Louisiana
• New Site proposed for $800 Million Lordstown Gas-fired Power Plant
• Ute Indian Tribe plans to build 1,000 MW Natural Gas-fired Power Plant in NE
Utah
• PGE announced Port Westward Unit 2, Gas-fired Power Plant Now in Service in
Oregon
GAS/OIL – WORLD
• ElSewedy Electric (Egypt) inks Two Power Plants Contract
• Mirfa Power and Water Plant to begin construction in February
• ACS (Spain) gets $323 Million Contract to upgrade Tula Combined Cycle Power
Plant
• Sixty-five Percent of First Phase of Az-Zour Power Plant in Kuwait achieved
NUCLEAR
• Bechtel and Westinghouse establish Alliance to pursue Nuclear Decommissioning
Work
• Ukraine's import of US Nuclear Fuel risky says Russia
• Vermont Yankee ends Operations after 42 Years
• Cape awarded Five Year Contract Extension with EDF Energy
BUSINESS
• American Energy merging Subsidiaries
• Boom in Industrial Purchases of Pollution Control Equipment in the US
• Coal-fired Power Plants around the World are switching to Fabric Filters
• GE to provide $1.2 Billion New Power Plant in Tabuk
• Snowy Hydro buys Colongra Gas-fired Peaking Plant from Delta Electricity for
$234 Million
• TVA Board approves additional Pollution Controls for Shawnee Fossil-fuelled
Power Plant
HOT TOPIC HOUR
• Media Selection for Coal-fired Boilers was the Hot Topic January 8, 2015
• Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursdays at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting
on important energy and pollution control subjects. These Webinars are free of
charge to owner/operators of the plants. They are also free to McIlvaine
Subscribers of Power Plant Air Quality Decisions and Utility Tracking System.
The cost for others is $300.00 per webinar.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input
relative to suggested additions.
DATE SUBJECT DESCRIPTION
January 22, 2015 FGD Components Including Blowers/Compressors More Information
January 29, 2015 MATS Compliance Choices More Information
February 5, 2015 Gas Turbine Regulatory Drivers More Information
February 12, 2015 Coal Gasification Air Pollution Control More Information
February 19, 2015 Mercury Measurement and Capture More Information
February 26, 2015 Power Plant Wastewater Treatment More Information
March 5, 2015 Dry Scrubbing and DSI More Information
Click here for the Subscriber and Power Plant or Cement Plant Owner/Operator
Registration Form
Click here for the Non-Subscribers Registration Form
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com