Special $600 discount for McIlvaine readers to attend EUEC 2016: February 3-5 in
San Diego, CA
McIlvaine readers can register online at
www.euec.com by December 15th
at the $600 discounted “VIP” rate to attend EUEC 2016: USA’s Largest Energy
Utility Environment Conference to be held February 3 to 5, 2016 in San Diego,
California. The 19th annual conference will host 2,000 delegates, 400
speakers and 200 exhibits. The VIP rate is $795 a savings of $600 from the
onsite cost of $1,395. Please register online at
www.euec.com and select registration
type “VIP” and use the code “McIlvaine”.
$100 Billion Annual Gas Turbine Market
Worldwide installations of new gas turbines will average 74,000 MW per year over
the next five years. The system sales revenue will be $75 billion per
year. GE, Siemens and the other turbine vendors will generate revenues
of $20 billion/yr. just for the turbine equipment. This is the latest
projection in
59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
published by the McIlvaine Company.
The worldwide installed gas turbine capacity is 1.5 million MW. Purchases
of repair parts consumables and upgrades at existing power plants will average
$30 billion/yr. Part of this investment will be a result of greenhouse gas
initiatives. The least expensive way to reduce the carbon footprint is to make
the existing gas turbine more efficient. Adding the steam cycle makes the
biggest difference but there are other options as well. Inlet filter
replacement for existing units will be more than $500 million. Another $460
million will be spent for SCR systems and catalyst per year. The market
for replacement parts for pumps and valves will be significant.
The gas turbine equipment suppliers purchase most of the components they furnish
as part of turbine packages. Complete turnkey systems, including the gas
turbine, steam turbine, cooling towers, HRSG, SCR, etc. are sold by a number of
companies who do not manufacture turbines. Despite the fact that the
purchaser could be an end user, a system supplier or an EPC, the number of
companies purchasing filters, treatment chemicals, instrumentation, pumps and
valves is very limited.
Those suppliers selling hardware for new power plants need to contact the
operators, the system suppliers and the engineering companies. Those
selling consumables have a more limited target.
It terms of end users, there are less than 100 power plant operators who will
buy most of the equipment and consumables. E.ON has 23,000 MW of gas
turbines in operation while Calpine has 26,000 MW. Together they have over 3
percent of the world’s installed capacity. The number of system suppliers
and engineering companies is also limited. Black & Veatch, Burns &
McDonnell, Sargent & Lundy, Bechtel, Kiewit and a few other U.S. based architect
engineers do a lion’s share of the engineering work.
The number of equipment vendors is even more limited. GE had a 49 percent of
the global gas turbine market last year, followed by Siemens with 23 percent,
Mitsubishi Hitachi with 17 percent and Alstom with 2 percent. With the purchase
of Alstom, the GE share will rise above 50 percent. In addition, GE has made a
huge investment in a new more efficient design which may boost their share well
above 50 percent.
GE’s new flagship, HA Turbines, will be the largest and most efficient in their
class. The first delivery was to EDF’s Bouchain combined cycle power plant
in France in August and is now being installed. The first U.S. order is
from Exelon. Four 7HA turbines
intended for expansions at the Wolf Hollow and Colorado Bend plants in Texas are
expected to come online in 2017.
The 50-hertz 9HA and 60-hertz 7HA both come in two different models. The 9HA.01
is rated at 397 MW in simple cycle mode and 592 MW in 1 x 1 combined cycle mode,
while the 9HA.02 is rated at 510 MW in simple cycle and 755 MW in combined
cycle. The 7HA.01 and 7HA.02, meanwhile, are rated at 275 MW and 405 MW and 337
MW and 468 MW, respectively.
Both designs can achieve better than 41 percent efficiency in simple cycle and
more than 61 percent in combined cycle. GE says the 9HA.01—the model
slated for Bouchain—can reach full power in 30 minutes and ramp at 60 MW per
minute.
GE already has $1 billion in firm orders for 7HA and 9HA turbines—16 units so
far—and 53 potential projects around the world have opted for the turbines. GE
hopes to sell up to 500 of the new design by 2030, which could represent up to
half of its gas turbine sales.
For hardware purchased directly by gas turbine suppliers, one company
represents more than 50 percent of the potential and three companies combine
for 90 percent.
Most suppliers have a direct sales force for large customers and a network of
sales representatives or distributors for the balance of sales. Since 70
percent of the sales will be to less than 100 large operators, equipment
suppliers and engineering companies, it is important to focus on the direct
sales effort. McIlvaine has developed Detailed Forecasts of Markets,
Prospects and Projects which is included along with
59EI Gas
Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.
For more information on this program contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
Annual Investment in New Coal-fired Power Plants Will be $200 Billion
Despite the movement away from coal in developed countries, the heavy investment
in new coal-fired power generation by developing countries is creating an annual
$170 billion market with some peaks of close to $200 billion over the next five
years. India, Vietnam and Indonesia
will be the leading purchasers. However, there will be some investment in
the developed countries who are reducing the total CO2 footprint from
coal. The route they are taking is to build new highly efficient
coal-fired power plants to replace the high CO2 emitting existing
power plants. Japan is a prime example. Dozens of new coal-fired power
plants are underway in Japan.
China is slowing down its investment in new coal-fired power plants but will
continue to be a leading purchaser. Coal-fired power is the key to the
smog reduction program. The electric power provided by these power plants is
used in commercial and residential buildings as a substitute for solid fuels
burned on site which are presently creating much of the smog. The large
coal-fired power plants built recently in China are more efficient than the
average U.S. coal-fired power plant and have all the pollution control
equipment.
Most of the new coal-fired boilers will be of the ultra supercritical design.
This requires high temperatures and pressures. International suppliers of
pumps, valves, piping and treatment chemicals benefit from the performance
demands and the need to rely on experienced suppliers. These boiler systems will
be furnished by suppliers from China, Japan and the U.S. as well as some of the
Eastern European countries. Due to the new World Bank limits on funding
coal-fired power plants, the international plant suppliers will be a more
important funding source.
Highly efficient particulate control equipment will be utilized on all the new
systems. Many will also have SO2 and NOx removal
devices. The requirements for mercury reduction have spread beyond the U.S.
borders. China also has set emission standards for mercury. Its Near Zero
Emissions (NZE) policy is as stringent as any policy around the world.
Pulverized coal firing will be most common with circulating fluid bed combustors
being used for some fuels where size reduction is challenging. Ball mills and
other size reduction equipment is typically furnished by the boiler system
supplier.
There are some promising technologies such as oxy-combustion which could achieve
relatively low cost CO2 sequestration.
In fact, a boiler firing 20 percent biomass and 80 percent coal with CO2
sequestration would be greener than wind or solar. Because there are not
any emission to the air and the biomass is renewable, there would be a net
decrease in greenhouse gases for every MW produced.
Due to the lack of water in many developing countries, dry cooling will be
considered as an alternative to wet or hybrid cooling. However, in warmer
climates, dry cooling is not efficient. Wastewater reuse is also a high
priority not only in arid areas but in all countries. The reason is the
increasing concern about water pollution. With zero liquid discharge and use of
municipal wastewater as a water source, a power plant is reducing water
pollution with every megawatt produced,
More information on the coal-fired power plant market is found at: N043
Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast.
Weekly tracking of activities at each coal-fired power plant around the world
except China is found at:
42EI Utility
Tracking System.
Tracking of Chinese power plant additions and upgrades is found at: 42EIC
Chinese Utility Plans
Air pollution control activity is analyzed at:
N027 FGD
Market and Strategies
N021 World
Fabric Filter and Element Market
N031 Air and
Water Monitoring: World Market
N018
Electrostatic Precipitator World Market
Water related activity is analyzed in:
N029
Ultrapure Water: World Market
N005
Sedimentation and Centrifugation World Markets
N006 Liquid
Filtration and Media World Markets
N024
Cartridge Filters: World Market
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com