September 2016 - FGD and DeNOx Insights 70

Power Plant Air Quality Decisions Aids Power Plants in Making Environmental Decisions

A utility had to quickly address ways to reduce air pollution on four large boilers based on an EPA disapproval of the State plan. The utility opted to use the free Power Plant Air Quality Decisions (PPAQD) to help make the decision. This included access to a comprehensive intelligence system with decisively classified options plus recorded webinars.

Because of the potential size of the investment ($700 million), McIlvaine elected to conduct three focused webinars to help the utility apply the system. Suppliers contributed new information for the system which has proved to be very useful. This information was reviewed during the sessions in a crowd decision making mode. The decision options were then revised to reflect new alternatives and new values for existing routes.

The utility has not yet made a final decision on the solution, but at this point, the most likely choice is one that no one would have predicted at the start of the process. One reason is that some of the application knowledge has been limited to the cement, glass and waste-to-energy applications and was not known to the power industry. In addition, some of the processes, when applied to other pollutants, have proved successful in coal-fired power. So this was the first time it was realized that they were equally applicable to the target pollutant. The third reason was that new developments make this option much more attractive.

The staff of the utility has impressive resumes and knowledge of air pollution control equal to any power generator. The fact that a large U.S. utility can benefit from the system leads to the conclusion that any small power plant or offshore power plant will derive even more benefit from use of the system.

The world’s relevant information is doubling every few years while an individual’s ability to assimilate it remains fixed. Systems such as Power Plant Air Quality Decisions become increasingly necessary.

China has to balance the health and welfare of its citizens today with longer range impacts of climate change. McIlvaine has a number of services which shed light on the resolution of this difficult choice. One is N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects. In this service, McIlvaine is following the very ambitious program in the northern mining regions of China to convert coal to clean gas and transport it around the country. Sinopec is proceeding with a $20 billion pipeline. Various gasification projects are in the planning or construction stage. There has been international criticism of this program due to its climate change implications. Since smog in major cities has been very high on the list of citizen complaints, a program to economically reduce it has considerable support. The clean gas will be piped to cities around the country and will replace dirty fuels presently burned in residential, commercial and light industrial plants. New research substantiates this argument.

"Coal and other dirty solid fuels are frequently used in homes for cooking and heating," said Denise Mauzerall, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and public and international affairs at Princeton University. "Because these emissions are essentially uncontrolled they emit a disproportionately large amount of air pollutants which contribute substantially to smog in Beijing and surrounding regions."

Households account for about 18 percent of total energy use in the Beijing region but produce 50 percent of black carbon emissions and 69 percent of organic carbon emissions, according to a research team from institutions including Princeton, the University of California Berkeley, Peking University and Tsinghua University. In the Beijing area, households contribute more pollutants in the form of small soot particles (which are particularly hazardous to human health) than the transportation sector and power plants combined; in the winter heating season, households also contribute more small particles than do industrial sources. The researchers said the high levels of air pollutant emissions are due to the use of coal and other dirty fuels in small stoves and heaters that lack the pollution controls in place in power plants, vehicles and at some factories.

This syngas program would eliminate much of the smog problem. Its impact on net CO₂ emissions will be smaller than what is claimed by the international opposition. The residential heating sources are inefficient. So they emit more CO₂per unit of energy produced than will a new gas furnace replacement. Another argument against the initiative is the impact on water resources in the mining areas. McIlvaine has done extensive analysis of water related activities in China. All of these plants will be equipped with zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems. This activity is tracked in N020 RO, UF, MF World Market.

In order to make the best decisions, China has to weigh the relative harm of CO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, water depletion and other resource impacts. It also has to weigh present vs. future values e.g. smog today vs. climate change tomorrow. McIlvaine has a common metric to weigh all harm and good Sustainability Universal Rating System.

The Catalytic Filter will have a Major Impact on the Fabric Filter, Scrubber, Precipitator, NO_x and FGD Markets

The catalytic filter has the potential to change air pollution markets in a major way. Catalytic filters remove both NO_x and particulate in one device. Over the last 10 years they have slowly gained acceptance in many small applications. The first large scale commercial installation in a cement plant is undergoing testing. Coal-fired power plants are now evaluating this technology for some near-term large projects. Because the catalytic filter can be used in conjunction with direct sorbent injection, it can remove the acid gases, NO_x, and fine particulate. It can operate at 350^oF with long fiberglass bags or at 850^oF with shorter ceramic fiber bags. By combining three pollution control devices into one, a large power plant could save more than $200 million in up front capital expenditures.

Market	Current Revenues $ Billions	Potential Impact %	Type of Impact (positive +, negative -)
Fabric Filter	13	60	+
NO_x Control	18	50	-
FGD (Power)	3	40	-
Scrubber (Industrial)	7	20	-
Precipitator	6	20	-
Heat Recovery	10	50	+ -

It is early in the growth cycle so it is unclear who will be the big winners and losers. Fabric filter system suppliers such as FLSmidth can capture the lion’s share of the revenue. On the other hand, the catalyst suppliers such as Haldor Topsoe can play either a minor or major role. System suppliers such as Mitsubishi/Hitachi can also seize the opportunity. So far the most active participants have been the Filtration Group, Tri-Mer, FLSmidth and Haldor Topsoe.

Both industrial scrubbers and power plant flue gas desulfurization (FGD) markets will be impacted. The lower capital cost of the catalytic filter with direct sorbent injection will have to be weighed against salable byproducts such as gypsum. The negative aspect of the DSI/catalytic filter is the mixture of dust and sulfates. In general, the large power plants with a likely buyer of wallboard quality gypsum will want to stick with the present wet FGD. However, suppliers of dry FGD systems could see their market disappear.

One of the biggest impacts will be on heat recovery. If the conventional air pre-heater suppliers were to deal with clean hot 850^oF gas, they could redesign their units to eliminate most of the air in leakage and can also offer economical designs to extract most of the rest of the heat in the flue gas. Reducing the outlet temperature to 150^oF instead of 350^oF would improve power plant efficiency by as much as 2 percent.

Each of the McIlvaine market reports is evaluating the impact of this new technology. Also the Power Plant and other Decision Guides for end users are providing intensive coverage of the technical developments.

Yes, Landfill Gas Engines Will Produce More Poison Ivy but also More Tomatoes

A New York Times article warns of the impending growth of poison ivy. Yes, but this fertilization effect of CO₂ has been put to good use by thousands of greenhouses around the world. GE, Cummins and other engine manufacturers are actively pursuing CHP projects which provide greenhouses with electricity, heat, light and CO₂. Is it better to increase the production of tomatoes or retard the growth of poison ivy?

The Southcoast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) struggled with this question in the recent analysis of the 1110.2 biogas emission amendment. The question is whether landfill gas engines would be a better choice than just flaring. The Beverly Hills estate owner who can easily buy whatever tomatoes are desired but is struggling to keep poison ivy under control will have a completely different value judgment than a starving child in Sudan. Should SCAQMD prioritize the desires of its residents above those of the starving people in the world? The answer is “Yes.” But this does not mean that every government in the world should reflect the values of SCAQMD residents.

There is a broader implication which greatly affects the market for reciprocating engines. These engines contribute to the increase of CO₂ in the world. A recent study by a number of collaborating universities now supports the long held theory that the earth is growing greener. Other studies have estimated that the increase in crop value is in the $billions and possibly even the $trillions. Many engines are being purchased by developing countries to provide critical power and, in turn, save lives and increase the welfare of the residents.

Decisions about the environmental impacts of these initiatives are being made on a simplistic basis. Engine manufacturers should support a more complex analysis which better represents the true desires of citizens. The three key analysis elements are (1) quality of life, (2) tribal values and (3) discounted future. The evaluation should not be based on the standard life quantity guide but on life quality. The highest honor gold medal goes to the soldiers who sacrificed decades of life quantity for one heroic life quality moment.

The tribal value question is put to rest by the fact that no government provides more than a tiny fraction of a percent of GDP for foreign aid. The SCAQMD biogas analysis reflects the values of the district. It points out that the CO₂ from flaring and the biogas engine are the same but that organic emissions could be higher with the engine option. Since the SCAQMD residents are the ones primarily impacted by the organic emissions, there is a tribal consideration which is contrasted to the CO₂ which is global.

The analysis further points out that the potential lost electricity with the flaring is not consequential because the electricity furnished in the district is efficient and green. By contrast, the starving Sudanese child lives in a district without any electricity. The potential to convert flared gas into electricity has enormous benefits to the child and other residents of the district.

The third element is the discount rate for future values. The parents of the Sudanese child and the wealthy grandfather setting up trusts are discounting future values at greatly different rates. The value of one more tomato today vs. one 50 years from now to the wealthy grandchild and the Sudanese child is very different. This discount rate is at the heart of the controversy between the Chinese government and international environmentalists. China has a program which will convert large amounts of coal to clean gas. Sinopec is building a $20 billion pipeline to distribute this gas throughout China. Many engines will be required to drive the thousands of compressors in the pipeline. The gas will replace solid fuels burned in many residences. China believes that this cheap gas supply will result in eliminating the severe smog problem. The health of Chinese citizens today is being prioritized over worldwide health consequences fifty years from now.

There is no simplistic answer in choosing between poison ivy and tomatoes. The world deserves the more complex analysis explained at Sustainability Universal Rating System.

Details on the technical, commercial, and application information on the use of engines for greenhouses, pipelines, compressors, data centers and wastewater plants is available through a service described at GTRE Decisions.

o Joint Venture to construct 2x668 MW Unit 1 Supercritical Coal-fired Power Plant in Bataan

o Prime Minister Nawaz inaugurates 40 MW Coal-fired Power Project in Faisalabad, Pakistan

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.

Emerson has signed an agreement to purchase the Valves & Controls business of Pentair for $3.15 billion. The acquisition is expected to close in the next four to six months, subject to various regulatory approvals.

“This acquisition delivers on our strategic plan of investing in Automation Solutions and in markets where we have a global leadership position and see significant long-term growth opportunities,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David N. Farr. “By adding Pentair’s Valves & Controls leading technologies and services to our already broad portfolio, we have positioned our businesses to grow while continuing to provide our customers around the world with more complete solutions to their toughest challenges.”

“The Pentair Valves & Controls business is a strong fit for us as they share many of the same management principles that have defined success for Emerson over the years such as global customer support, service, best cost sourcing and manufacturing,” said Mike Train, Executive Vice President and Business Leader for Emerson Automation Solutions. “In addition to adding great people and brands to our business, it will allow us to expand our market position and create new opportunities for growth, while also being able to offer our customers the most complete valve solutions portfolio and most extensive service network in the world.”

McIlvaine updates more than 50,000 valve forecasts continually and also provides market share rankings based on the latest 12-month performance. See N028 Industrial Valves: World Market

Company	Valve and Actuator Sales $ Millions	General Performance $ Millions	High Performance $ Millions	High Performance Market Share %
Pentair	$2,100	600	1,500	4
Emerson	$1,980	600	1,360	3
New Emerson	$4,080	1,200	1,880	7
Cameron	$1,520	200	1,320	3
Flowserve	$1,470	400	1,070	2
Other	$78,850	47,000	32,870	81
Total	$90,000	50,000	40,000	100

The new Emerson will hardly be a player in the general performance valve market with just a 2 percent market share. However, with a 7 percent market share in high performance valves and sales which are twice that of its nearest competitor, it will be exercising its “right to win” position. This position could be substantially enhanced by the Decision Guide program initiated by McIlvaine.

High performance valves have been defined by McIlvaine to include both severe and critical service. Each needs to be purchased based on lowest total cost of ownership (LTCO) and not on initial price. These high performance valves are important elements in the Automation Solutions cited by Emerson as the target market for the expanded company.

Automation Solutions requires process knowledge far beyond what is easily acquired and understood. The supplier needs the knowledge to offer the system and the end user needs the knowledge to justify its LTCO. McIlvaine is offering Decision Guides to address this need. The guides cover all aspects of coal-fired, gas turbine and reciprocating engine operation. Narrow guides in specific subjects in oil gas such as molecular sieve switching valves and choke valves are also kept current.

This approach is radically different than current practice and can best be explained by an example. Emerson is pursuing a large multi-plant automation project for a major utility. The success of the optimization depends on the quick and precise reaction of many valves. The degree of success in the boiler impacts a number of valve related decisions in the back end portion of the upgrade. The utility has been using the McIlvaine Power Plant Air Quality Decisions Guide (PPAQD). A series of five webinars including three already conducted and two to be held in early September are helping the utility, consultants and the suppliers maximize the value of the material in PPAQD. At this point it looks as if the PPAQD will result in an approach which will save over $200 million in capital costs.

There have been discussions with the executives of the utility as to why the Decision Guide would be critical in determining the best options. There is agreement that the relevant information particularly about total solutions is doubling every few years. Conventional approaches to take advantage of the voluminous data are clearly inadequate. The consultants and the utility personnel both can take advantage of the Decision Guide.

Emerson can take advantage of this new route to market to ensure that end users around the world understand the lowest total cost of ownership benefits, for more information on Decision Guides click on Decision Guides. The upcoming webinars are described at Hot Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings