November 2017 - McIlvaine Insights 41

Forty Percent of Flow and Treat Products for Desalination will be Purchased by Just Forty Companies Next Year

Desalination is growing faster than the total potable water market. Next year purchases of flow and treat products will exceed $7.7 billion of which over $3 billion will be purchased by just 40 companies. This includes large system suppliers, independent operating companies and plant owners. Due to the increased usage of remote monitoring the purchasing decisions will be made by relatively few individuals who are utilizing data analytics and making choices based on good cost of ownership information.

Desalination Purchases - World - 2018 - $ millions
Products	All Purchases	Top 40 Owners and EPCs
Pumps	1400	560
Membranes	1000	400
Valves	1300	520
Macrofiltration	200	80
Cartridges	200	80
Guide	900	360
Control	1900	760
Measure	800	320
Total	7700	3080

This opportunity will be analyzed in a McIlvaine free webinar to be held on December 6. The specific opportunity for each product is analyzed in a series of McIlvaine market reports which also identify the top 40 purchasers

The purchase of GE Water by Suez creates a player with desalination sales close to that of the leader, Veolia and the second largest participant, Doosan. The largest owner is Taqa of the UAE with close to 2.5 million m³/day of desalination capacity. It is expanding beyond the UAE

to other countries in the Mid-East, Africa and Asia. However, it is contracting with major EPCs to operate its plants. So much of the purchasing decision making remains with the large EPC/operators.

Most of the new desalination systems are incorporating reverse osmosis instead of distillation technology. Remote monitoring and control assures that the proper treatment chemical additions are made to minimize membrane fouling. Energy efficiency is also optimized through control of the primary and energy recovery pumps.

To register for the webinar click on Free Market Webinars

Detailed product forecasts for desalination are provided in the following:

Operators of gas turbines will spend $2.9 billion in 2018 for valves. Fifty-five percent of the total will be for new plants while 25 percent will be replacements and 20 percent will be upgrades of existing plants. Some of the upgrades will just be valves added for better control and remote monitoring. Others will be added due to conversion of open cycle to combined cycle operation.

4000 MW of open cycle gas turbines will be converted to combined cycle operation on an average annual basis in the next three years. Most of this will be in the Middle East and the U.S where most of the units are still not in combined cycle mode. The open cycle mode emits almost as much CO₂ as does a coal fired boiler. Conversions are being made primarily to achieve extra electricity production but greenhouse gas reduction per unit of energy produced is also a consideration.

Region	Percent Open Cycle
North America	36
South America	40
Europe	4
CIS	16
Africa	53
Middle East	40
Asia	9
TOTAL	26

It is a challenge to operate an HRSG on a fast cycling basis. More robust automation and control provides part of the fast start HRSG solution. There have been significant attemperator problems caused by frequent cycling. One of the problems is leaking valves. The solution is new valve designs and remote monitoring of valve leakage. McIlvaine is analyzing valve designs for HRSGS and has solicited assistance from the HRSG Users Group which is holding their annual conference in Houston from February 12-14. https://hrsgusers.org/conference

The acceleration of remote monitoring of valves and the evaluation of total cost of ownership is covered in

The specific valve forecast for each of 12 valve types for gas turbines is provided in each of 80 countries in

The technical issues relative to HRSGs and other gas turbine processes are continually analyzed in

Profiles of the 50 largest purchasers of gas turbine valves are included along with project tracking in

Municipal Wastewater Treatment and Power Plant Environmental Technology Interconnection will expand Wisdom

Wisdom gained in reducing pollutants from power plants can be used to improve municipal wastewater plant performance and vice versa. IIoT promises to interconnect things. Suez, operating a number of treatment plants from a center in France, can be making adjustments to blowers in a plant in Chile to reduce energy consumption and improve nutrient removal. MHPS operating power plants from a center in the Philippines can make adjustments to blowers to improve FGD oxidation in a plant in India.

Data analytics with the help of subject matter experts (SME) can provide guidance to minimize down time and maintenance costs. However, if the voluminous analytics are made available and utilized in decision systems accessed by disparate plants and industries and if there is sufficient interconnection among SMEs then the decisions will be empowered by the Industrial Internet of Wisdom (IIoW). The SMEs who focus on a system can them become subject matter ultra-experts (SMUES).

The interconnection among industries is important. Take power plants and wastewater plants as an example.

· *Municipal wastewater plants could provide the water for use as cooling and process water for power plants

· *Municipal sewage sludge can replace some of the solid fuels used in power plants

· *Co-location of power plants and municipal wastewater plants would allow for waste heat from the power plants to be used for accelerated nutrient removal and sludge drying in the wastewater plants

· *New methods for mercury removal are equally applicable to municipal sludge incinerators and coal fired boilers

· *Improvements in liquid, gas and free flowing solids analyzers have applicability to both industries

· *Automation and control system improvements for combustion, scrubbing and liquid solid separation in one industry can be used in the other

You can view a recorded presentation on IIoT and Remote O&M for municipal wastewater at:

We are presently analyzing aeration blower options for nutrient removal at municipal wastewater plants and seeking to identify subject matter experts. We welcome any suggestions.