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Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

Briefs

Our Municipal Wastewater webinar is slated for March 28.  You can register at:

Free Market Webinars

The IIoT and Remote O&M report was just updated with tens of thousands of forecasts for Guide, Control and Measure for each industry in each country.  The Guide market which includes process management, data analytics and subject matter expertise will grow from $48 billion in 2018 to just under $64 billion in 2022.

                                        Guide Forecast $ millions World-wide

 

 

 

Industry

2018

2022

 

Chemical

6003.39

8323.47

 

Electronics

232.03

305.2

 

Food

2033.96

2787.18

 

Iron and Steel

2069.46

2499.65

 

Metals

495.5

672.99

 

Mining

816.84

1159.18

 

Oil and Gas

10926.13

14437.21

 

Other Electronics

278.36

387.26

 

Other Industries

5078.25

6836.78

 

Pharmaceutical

1405.05

1842.25

 

Power

4423.91

5731.69

 

Pulp and Paper

2376.01

2903.27

 

Refinery

6566.51

8758.39

 

Wastewater

2325.99

2966.24

 

Water

3013.67

4293.17

 

Total

48045.06

63903.93

 

For more information on  IIoT and Remote O&M click on N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M

$1 Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market in 2018

Power, water and industrial plants will spend $1 trillion in 2018 for equipment and services for the combustion, treatment and measurement of gases, liquids and free flowing solids. This expenditure will equal 1% of World GDP and has been a major part of human progress ever since primitive man started utilizing fire.   McIlvaine Company multi-client reports cover nearly half the market while private consulting addresses the balance. The reports cover hardware such as air and water treatment equipment but also consumables such as treatment chemicals, cartridges and membranes.

The multi-client reports contain millions of forecasts.  They include forecasts for each product in each industry through 2022 in 80 separate countries and sub regions.  The multi-client valve report provides separate forecasts for each type of control and on off valve resulting in more than 50,000 forecasts.   These forecasts are continually updated.  This is necessary because regulations can cause sudden major changes in the forecast.

The IIoT market is the largest and fastest growing.  This includes controls and automation including a "Guide" category with process management and data analytics software along with third party advice from subject matter experts.  The consumables markets such as cartridges and treatment chemicals are less volatile than the equipment markets.  The most volatile markets are FGD and DeNOx for the power industry.  Each of these markets has fluctuated from $2 billion to $15 billion depending on the regulatory impact.  However, most countries of the world now have retrofitted this technology. So when India and Asean nations complete their programs the market will become mostly one of repair and replace.

 

2018 Flow and Treat Market - $ Billions

Group

Individual Products within the Group

IIIoT

Control

Guide

Measure Liquids

Measure

Air/Gases

Measure

Powders

Valves

Ball

Butterfly

Gate

Globe


Three Others

Pumps

Centrifugal

Diaphragm

Reciprocating

Rotary

 

Cross Flow

Membranes

RO Equipment

Micro Equipment

UF Equipment

Membranes

(3 segments)

 

Cartridges

Carbon

Non-woven

Membrane

Metal

String Wound

Sedimentation

Clarifier

Disk

Decanter

DAF

Two Others

Water Chemicals

Corrosion

Inhibitors

Flocculants
Coagulants

Scale

Inhibitors

Oxidizers

Biocides

Six Others

Fabric Filters

Systems

Equipment

Bags

Media

 

Scrubbers

Absorber

Adsorber

Particulate

Dry Scrubber

2 Others

Electrostatic

Precipitators

Dry

Precipitators

Wet

Precipitators

There is also a third party $billion O&M market

FGD

Wet FGD

Dry

$7 billion market for repair and replace

DeNOX

Catalyst

Reagent

Very volatile market.  2018 is a valley

Thermal

Thermal incineration

RTO

Catalytic Oxidizers

Catalyst

 

Compressors

Centrifugal

Reciprocating

Screw

 

 

Fans and Blowers

Centrifugal

Axial

Rotary

Multi Stage

Turbo

 

Color Code $ billions

>100

> 20

>10

>5

>4

>2

>1

<1

One major process not included in the chart is heat exchange. It is a major investment for the power, chemical, food, refining and a number of other industries. Biological treatment is a substantial market in wastewater and was not included. Reaction processes in the chemical industry were not included in the chart but are part of the $ trillion market.

The rapidly developing Industrial Internet of Things empowered by the Industrial Internet of Wisdom is changing the industry. The connection of knowledge and people and products makes it more important to understand the interaction between blowers and scrubbers, or pumps and filters. Automation and control is expanding faster than the hardware.  A number of hardware suppliers are expanding their scope to provide the wisdom about their products with edge computer technology providing a gateway to central systems.

The explosion of knowledge also allows companies to afford advanced forecasting. For example it is now possible to forecast not only ball valve purchases for gas pipelines but to further segment by trunnion vs floating support, top vs side entry, and forecast each of the sizes from 2-36"

More information on the individual market reports is found at http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets

Information on the Advanced Forecasting is described in a 5 step program covered at www.mcilvainecompany.com

For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com  847-784-0012

Advanced Forecasting of the $12 billion On/Off Ball Valve Market and the $ 1 Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market

Advanced Forecasting can be defined as

1.     Bottoms up forecasting which provides accuracy supported by facts and statistics

2.     Detailed segmentation so that the forecasts match the individual sales responsibilities

3.     Process for continuing feedback, review and updates

4.     Provision for impact of innovative product developments

5.     Forecasts of purchasers by each major prospect

Advanced Forecasting can be layered.  In the top layer McIlvaine provides forecasts for 80 countries and regions for the next 5 years in more than 20 industries and for hundreds of products.  More than 1 million forecasts in the Combust, Flow and Treat industries are continuously updated.

In addition, McIlvaine provides forecasts for generic products for each large purchaser which adds another 20,000 forecasts.

This top layer is adequate for most regional decisions for product combinations.  A second layer provides the forecasts for each territory.  A third layer segments the markets in each territory for each special product.

The top layer of forecasts is contained in the McIlvaine market reports as shown at http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets

The second and third levels of segmentation are included in specific consulting contracts.

In the top layer the local salesman has a forecast total for all the products for which he is responsible along with forecasts for the large customers with home offices in his territory. Additional layers can segment by specific products.  In one case the market for pipeline ball valves was further segmented by trunnion vs floating, side entry vs top entry and by sizes from 2" to 30".  The market can also be segmented to include forecasts for purchases by any company purchasing some meaningful amount.  If 90% of the dollar volume is by customers with purchases of more than $100,000 per year and the average purchase is $300,000 then purchases for 3.3 million buyers would need to be determined in order to identify the purchasers for 90% of the $ 1 trillion total market. 

However, since most companies concentrate on certain products and industries and may not need to identify purchasers of less than $1 million per year, then forecasts for a few thousand companies would be adequate.

Let's take ball valves as an example of Advanced Forecasting. 2018 Valve purchases will be $62 billion. Purchases of ball valves will be $12 billion.  This is the largest of 8 categories of valves. The market is further segmented by control vs on/off.  Since a small percent of ball valves are used for control, the on-off valve market is over $11 billion.  Of this total the power market represents $1 billion.  This is further split by type of fuel with 50% coal, 25% oil and gas, 15% nuclear and 10% other.

Valve Market 2018

Segment

Revenue                 $ billions 2018

Valve Market 2018

62

Ball Valves

12

On/Off Ball Valves

11

Power On/Off Ball Valves

1

Oil and Gas Power On/Off Ball Valves

.25

Nuclear On/Off Ball Valves

.20

Other Power On/Off Ball Valves

.05

Coal On/Off Ball Valves

.50

The nuclear ball valve market is concentrated with just five purchasers accounting for 34% of the market.

Nuclear Power Plant Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases 2018 - $ millions

 

World

EDF

Bechtel

KEPCO

Exelon

Percent

100

20

10

5

4

Guide

1400

280

140

70

56

Control

2200

440

220

110

88

Measure

1200

240

120

60

48

Valves

2000

400

200

100

80

Ball valves on/off

200

40

20

10

8

Macrofiltration (Belt Presses, Sand Filters)

200

40

20

10

8

Pumps

1100

220

110

55

44

Treatment Chemicals

1400

280

140

70

56

Sedimentation and Centrifugation

300

60

30

15

12

Variable Speed Drives and Motors

600

120

60

30

24

RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems

200

40

20

10

8

Air Purification and Protection

400

80

40

20

16

Total

11,000

2200

1100

550

440

The coal fired boiler ball valve market is less concentrated than nuclear but still 15 companies make 56% of the purchases.

 

Coal Fired Power Plant Valve Purchases 2018 $ millions

Company

Country

% Coal Fired Power Plant of On/Off Ball Valve Purchases 2018

 

Coal Fired Power Plant On/Off Ball Valve Purchases

2018

$ Millions

AEP

U.S.

1.1

5.5

BWE

U.S.

0.6

3

Datang

China

7

35

Duke

U.S.

1

5

Enel

Italy

1

5

Eskom

South Africa

6

30

*Guodian

China

7.5

37.5

Huaneng

China

9

45

Huadian

China

6

30

J-Power

Japan

0.5

2.5

National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC)

India

7

35

NRG

U.S.

1

5

*Shenhua

China

4.5

22.5

Southern

U.S.

1

5

Uniper

Germany

0.6

3

Vietnam Power (EVN)

Vietnam

2

10

Sub Total

 

55.8

279

Other

 

44.2

221

TOTAL

 

100 

500

* These two companies are now combined creating a company with 12% of the purchases

Many of the valve decisions are increasingly being made by OEMS, and EPCs. For new systems the end user will not often directly purchase these components.  Large power plant system suppliers will typically purchase or specify the specific brand and product.

As a result, a few thousand people in 31 corporations will make more than 70 percent of the purchase decisions for valves.

Decision Makers for Coal Fired Power Plant Valves

Percent

Top 16 operators - Direct

40

Top 16 EPCs and OEMs for the top 16 operators

12

Smaller EPCS for top 16 operators

3.8

Top 16 operators sub total

55.8

Top 16 EPC's for smaller operators

15

Top 31 sub total

70.8

Purchases by smaller EPCs for smaller operators

9

Smaller operators - Direct

20.2

Total

100

Municipal wastewater treatment plant operators world-wide are anticipated to spend $64 billion for selected flow and treat products and services this year. The majority of these purchases will be made by just 200 operators and 30 engineering/consulting firms.

Suez is supplying more than 30 million people with water and wastewater services. They are also designing plants and purchasing flow and treat products for new as well as existing plants. Beijing Enterprises Water Group (BEWG) operates more than 400 wastewater plants in China and other countries and is also involved in design build projects where they would specify flow and treat products. Chicago MSD operates seven wastewater reclamation plants.  It is also expanding its scope by encouraging nearby food processors to send waste to the plant for conversion to biogas. This will increase its sludge processing, compressor and air pollution control purchases.  Los Angeles Sanitation's operations are approximately half the size of those in Chicago.

 

2018 Municipal Wastewater Purchases ($ millions)

 

World

 

U.S.

Suez

 

Jacobs

CH2M 

BEWG

Los Angeles

Chicago MSD

Guide

5280

1100

106

63

33

11

22

Control

8640

1800

173

104

54

18

36

Measure

4320

900

86

52

27

9

18

Valves

4800

1000

96

58

30

10

20

On/Off Ball Valves

600

125

12

7

4

1

2

Macrofiltration (belt presses, sand filters)

2400

500

48

29

15

5

10

Pumps

9600

2000

192

115

60

20

40

Treatment Chemicals

6720

1400

134

81

42

14

28

Sedimentation and Centrifugation

4320

900

86

52

27

9

18

Variable Speed Drives and Motors

4800

1000

96

58

30

10

20

Turbines, Fans, and Compressors

10560

2200

211

127

66

22

44

RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems

1200

250

24

14

7

3

6

Air Pollution Control

960

200

19

12

6

2

4

Total

63,600

13,250

1271

765

397

133

266

The food market is much more fragmented than most of the other markets.  Cartridge expenditures this year by the industry will be $591 million. The largest purchasers will each buy 1% or less of the total.  The industry will spend $522 million for on off ball valves which is slightly less than for cartridges.

Subject

ADM

Anheuser

Busch

Cargill

Coca Cola

Con Agra

Food On/Off Ball Valves

2.6

3.5

1.8

2.6

0.9