March 2017 - McIlvaine Insights 7

The courts have approved a new coal fired power plant in Kansas but keep in mind that this is the result of a lawsuit filed in 2010. The economics have changed in the last six years. Also, coal plant investments are made on the basis of an economic life of 30 years. The potential for the Clean Power Plan to be implemented by a future administration will continue to dampen the enthusiasm for new coal fired construction.

One role for coal in the U.S. could be combined heat and power. A coal fired power plant which can supply the waste heat for processes could be 70% efficient compared to the best GTCCC standalone plant of 55%. There are at least 500 existing large industrial coal fired boilers in the U.S. which could be upgraded.

Thursday is the Oil and Gas IIoT webinar followed a week later by one on Filtration and Separation IIoT. See the schedule at: Weekly IIoT Webinars

Decision Guides for high performance valves are now being compiled on a collaborative basis. It is part of the Mcilvaine effort to empower IIoT with IIoW (Wisdom). Valves for severe, critical, or unique service in oil and gas and power are being analyzed. High Performance Valves and IIoT

The digital rapidity of IIoT has to be duplicated in IIoW. One route is to record your sales power point presentations and make them accessible. InterwebviewsT

IIoT and Remote O&M will boost Sales to the Oil and Gas Industry by $13 billion this Year.

The Oil and Gas industry has been an early adopter of IIoT and Remote O&M. It is also a major purchaser of flow control and treatment products. These are defined by Mcilvaine to include all products and services associated with movement or treatment of granular solids, liquids, and gases. It includes combustion, reaction, cooling, separation, drying, and other processes.

Smart sensors, software, smart components and data analytics along with other components of IIoT will result in purchases by oil and gas companies this year of $13 billion above what they would spend for less robust automation and flow control and treatment smart products.

An additional $18 billion will be influenced by IIoT players rather than the traditional decision makers. Included in this group are sales to corporate decision makers using IIoT for global sourcing as well as sales to third party O&M companies. The total market of $31 billion will be growing at 13% per year to $80 billion in 2025 and $168 billion by 2030. The market will represent 1.5% of the relevant Capex/Opex market in 2017 rising to 3.2% in 2025.

These findings will be discussed on Thursday at 10:00AM in an hour-long webinar. We invite you to join us by registering at Weekly IIoT Webinars

FGD market opportunities are greatly enhanced by the potential for remote maintenance and operation. International suppliers can increase their success rate in developing countries while at the same time bring decades of experience to countries without it.

Coal-fired power plants will spend $10 billion/yr. to remove SO₂ over the next few years. This includes the capital investment, repair, replacement and consumables. The capital investment will be lower than at a peak in 2010 but the other segments continue to grow. The various factors are continually assessed in McIlvaine's N027 FGD Market and Strategies.

The biggest near term markets are in Asia. There are a number of new plants in planning and construction in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. China is challenged with maintaining and repairing a number of systems which were built with plastic lined steel instead of high alloys. This lower cost approach requires periodic replacement. It also places greater emphasis on continuous corrosion monitoring and guidance as to the most cost effective repair options.

The U.S. will continue to operate more than 200,000 MW of FGD systems, but will not build new coal-fired power plants. China already operates four times as many coal-fired power plants as the U.S. and will continue to build more but at a reduced rate. The big variable is the use of FGD for coal-fired power plants in India, Vietnam and Indonesia. There are new SO₂ regulations in India. The limits vary by age and size of the boiler. Power plants in coastal areas are likely to use seawater as the scrubbing liquor. This approach reduces capital cost and eliminates costly lime or limestone.

Another variable is the type of FGD which will be employed. Dry FGD necessitates purchase of lime or sodium. These reagents are much costlier than limestone. But dry FGD requires much less capital investment than wet limestone. India suffers from lack of water and is likely to lean toward the dry methods. On the other hand, the wet limestone results in saleable gypsum while dry FGD results in a waste which must be landfilled or converted to low value construction products. One option is a two-stage scrubbing system which results in both sulfuric and hydrochloric acid by-products. This design also has the potential to separate rare earths at a much lower cost than the methods being researched by the USDOE and the Chinese government.

There is a large and growing market to maintain and operate FGD systems. Remote monitoring allows a vendor to cost effectively support operations thousands of miles away.

A number of FGD systems already have digital process management systems in place. The next step is to integrate them into a higher-level cloud platform which allows participation by component experts and others.

An example of a digital process management system which is working well is one supplied by Andritz. It incorporates Yokogawa software. For the Turceni power plant in Romania, Yokogawa provided its CENTUM VP integrated production control system (PCS); field devices such as DPharp EJX pressure/differential pressure transmitters, pH analyzers, and temperature transmitters; the Plant Resource Manager (PRM) integrated device management tool; the Exaquantum plant information management system (PIMS); the eLogBook tool for shift operator logging; and paperless recorders for environmental emissions tracking and the monitoring of large motors. The system insures compliance with environmental standards while minimizing costs of fan and pump energy consumption as well as use of water and limestone.

The incorporation of a full IIoT system would allow limestone, fan, and pump suppliers to review performance and make suggestions to Andritz and the owner Complexul Energetic Oltenia S.A. If Asian power plants incorporate similar software and then add the additional IIoT programs explained in the Mcilvaine service Industrial IoT and Remote O&M they can take advantage of the world's knowledge.

Filtration and separation involves many variables. The applications are frequently critical to successful manufacturing of products and delivery of clean water. The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) empowered by the Industrial Internet of Wisdom (IIoW) will have a $10 billion impact on the market size by 2026 and will divert another $10 billion through different market routes. Sales of filtration and separation equipment and consumables will exceed $95 billion in 2026. Of this total $20 billion will be attributable to the impact of IIoT and Remote O&M. This is the latest forecast in the Mcilvaine publication IIoT and Remote O&M.

Filtration & Separation IIoT & Remote O&M Market
Segment	$ billions
Traditional Route to Market	75
New Route to Market	10
New Smart Revenues	10
Total	95
IIoT Impacted Market	20

There is already a substantial market in certain industries such as oil and gas, pulp and paper, and food processing. The IIoT & Remote O&M segment of the market will be growing by 13% per year over the next decade compared to just 3% for the rest of the industry.

There has been a great deal of analysis relative to the convergence of information technology and operations technology. Smart sensors, open platforms and improved data analytics are creating the equivalent of millions of continually updated white papers on the performance of individual components, sub systems, and systems. The use of subject matter experts has typically been addressed without regard to the importance of innovation.

This avalanche of white papers is going to justify an army of experts each able to focus on a very narrow niche. It is also going to dictate interconnection between individuals at each plant within the organization operating the filtration and separation systems. It is going to dictate interconnection between the end users, associations, and suppliers to an extent commensurate with the increase in available knowledge.

This interconnection is occurring partly through acquisitions. Suez is purchasing GE Water. It has a remote monitoring center in France. It also owns and operates municipal water and wastewater plants throughout the world. It is operating 40% of the municipal plants in Chile. It can monitor centrifuge performance and then add GE Betz chemicals to improve dewatering from the remote monitoring center.

Some industries can light the way for others. Andritz automation has created FiberVision and can remotely measure particle size of the fibers in the pulp slurry in a pulp and paper mill. The system measures other parameters in all the processes and provides guidance for the operators. Andritz is also offering predictive control algorithms to better operate thickeners, flotation devices, and filters in mining applications.

A number of centrifuge suppliers have comprehensive monitoring and control systems. GEA has Wewatch®. Centrisys remotely monitors 32 key operating parameters and offers to log in and make non-critical adjustments to help optimize the process. Alfa Laval Octopus monitors and controls all aspects of the dewatering process.

A number of the filter vendors are moving forward aggressively in the IIoT space. Mann & Hummel has a new IIoT laboratory in Singapore where it has 10 projects in the pipeline. Donaldson remotely monitors bulk filtratration systems for fuel. Restaurant Technologies monitors fryer filter health in restaurants. Aqua Clear monitors RO and nanofilter systems for industrial and commercial facilities. The Evoqua Wallace & Tiernan division has extensive process monitoring systems with intelligent visualization.

There has been a move to higher efficiency filters for gas turbines. The increased filter cost is justified by lower maintenance. AAF combines remote monitoring with a maintenance package including inventory management. This comprehensive approach provides an opportunity to provide the lowest total cost of ownership.

There are some power generation companies operating hundreds of gas turbines. One company with a large number of gas turbines is BHE Energy. Mcilvaine has created a beta site to demonstrate the value of IIoW to empower IIoT. BHE also has coal fired plants and wind turbines. So it would have thousands of lubrication systems. A new kidney shaped filter at one of their plants has proved superior in a pulverizer application. Cuno string wound filters are specified at most of their plants but due to particulate contamination related to air cooling the condensate filter needed to be replaced at one plant with a Pall 25-micron filter. When case histories and the knowledge of the plant operators and suppliers are pooled for a company such as BHE, the impact of IIoT becomes more cost effective.

The IIoT forecasts for filtration along with strategies to help filter companies collaborate with other players are provided at: N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M

This opportunity will be discussed in an hour-long webinar on March 30. To register click on: Weekly IIoT Webinars

Market reports on individual filtration and separation subjects are found at: Markets