February 2018 - McIlvaine Insights 50

Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

In the following article we define WOM as Wisdom based Obtainable Market. This greatly expands the Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) and will also impact market shares. Wisdom comes from the interconnection of knowledge and people. All our many services complement one another and provide a platform for wisdom to flourish.

Our February 28th webinar is on offshore oil and gas WOM opportunities. It is important not only to those pursuing this market but for anyone interested in remote monitoring and control. The challenge of operating valves, pumps and other flow and treat products in the deep ocean is leading to cutting edge technologies which will be useful in many applications.

Some of the WOM wisdom comes from decision systems. We are presently examining all the options for improving aeration efficiency in municipal wastewater treatment. You can obtain a free three-month access to this system. So just communicate your interest and we will provide access.

Advanced Forecasting Maximizes Profitable Growth in the Combust, Flow and Treat (CFT) Markets

The avalanche of digital information now engulfing us can either bury us or be utilized to maximize profits through "Advanced Forecasting". Market research has in the past been used not as a guide but as an indicator to opportunities. "Advanced Forecasting" makes use of this digital information avalanche to guide capital investments as well as set up promotional budgets and sales quotas.

Markets can be divided into four categories including the three traditional ones and a new one created by the sea change in the business environment.

Most typical $4,000 reports are based on top-down research and provide only "Possible TAM". Top-down means that the report is based on interviews, annual reports and broad indicators. However, annual reports and interviews tend to reflect the conclusions from the top down reports. This creates an illusionary consensus. The volatility of the stock market is in part based on peaks caused by illusionary consensus and valleys caused by reality.

Many companies which understand the importance not only of SAM but SOM spend orders of magnitude more for custom market research than for a multi-client report. These large contracts allow very capable individuals to interview the most knowledgeable people and to spend lots of time sifting through the avalanche of data. They also have the funding to acquire multiple top down reports. The problem is that the results are likely to be greatly impacted by the illusionary consensus.

For a much more insightful analysis of SOM you need a bottoms up approach. Such an approach could cost millions of dollars. Fortunately, for many CFT subjects Mcilvaine has made this investment reflected in continuously updated reports compiled over the last 44 years.

Some of these reports are in the form of databases with specific project details and purchasing forecasts for the 1000 customers who buy most CFT. These bottoms up reports are then used in the multi-client market reports to provide bottoms up market forecasting.

This SAM effort leads the way to cost effective SOM forecasts. These analyses for very specific products in each industry in each territory can include several million specific forecast cells. In the case of a new product launch it may be desirable to provide even further segmentation. One example would be forecasts for ball valves for gas pipelines segmented by valve size, geography, large purchasers, trunnion vs floating and side entry vs top entry.

WOM expands Advanced Forecasting to include revenues based on supplemental IIoT products and services and revenues for expanded markets and increased margin in existing markets.

Reliable bottoms up SOM forecasts can contribute greatly to increasing profits through best allocation of capital, personnel, R&D and sales promotion. WOM forecasting will provide even greater rewards.

There is a five step WOM program to leverage Advanced Forecasting explained at www.mcilvainecompany.com

The booming U.S shale market is a major contributor to the increasing revenues for IIoT products and services. Guide revenues which include process management and subject matter expertise will grow at 10 percent per year during the next 5 years to reach $3.36 billion by 2022. Revenues for control and measurement will be rising at 7 percent per year.

McIlvaine conducted a webinar on February 7 with two slide decks. This webinar was recorded, and the recording is available free of charge. The actual slide decks are only available to subscribers to the McIlvaine IIoT and Remote O&M report. Here is the table of contents to the webinar.

The following webinars are free to anyone. The power points are only available to subscribers of the relevant market reports. Each webinar discusses market size and identifies the largest companies who are responsible for more than 50 percent of the purchases. The impact of IIoT & Remote O&M in creating a new route to market for combust, flow and treat products is analyzed.

DATE	HOT TOPIC HOUR SCHEDULE
February 28, 2018	Offshore Oil and Gas Extraction Offshore and particularly deep subsea extraction involves challenges not found elsewhere. The need for remote O&M is absolute in deep subsea applications. Evolving technology is critical to reducing costs. The McIlvaine Choke Valve Decision Guide and Oil and Gas Gate Valves Greater than 5000 psi Decision Guide are examples of the contribution of IIoW (wisdom) to IIoT. Subsea IIoT includes a network of smart, wireless sensors and devices configured to provide actionable operational intelligence such as performance, performance, condition and diagnostic information. McIlvaine tracks offshore projects on a daily basis. This resource is used in a marketing plan focused on the large offshore operators.
March 28, 2018	Municipal Wastewater Markets and Decisions This will be a follow up and expansion of the discussion of the Water and Wastewater IIoT webinar of April 6, 2017. You can view the table of contents and listen to the previous recording from the links below this will include market forecasts for municipal wastewater combust, flow and treat products and services but also cover the municipal wastewater decisions system with specific emphasis on aeration blower options. Markets for pumps, valves, chemicals, filters and instruments impacted by IIoT will also be covered.
April 25, 2018	Coal Fired Power IIoT and Remote O&M An update of the webinar conducted on March 2, 2017 will provide the latest S.E. Asia projects along with conclusions being reached in Coal fired boiler Decisions and specifically dry scrubber options. It will also cover the markets for systems and components and the impact of IIoT.
May 23, 2018	Gas Turbine, Reciprocating Engine IIoT and Remote O&M An update of the webinar conducted on February 2, 2017 will cover the markets and projects for gas turbine and reciprocating engine systems and components worldwide. The impact of IIoT and the booming third party remote monitoring and O&M will be analyzed. There will also be coverage of Gas Turbine Decisions and challenging issues such as desuperheater reliability and maintenance.