August 2017 - McIlvaine Insights 28

Forecasts for Individual Purchasers will be provided in the Pulp and Paper IIoT & Remote O&M Webinar Wednesday

The pulp and Paper IIoT and Remote O&M webinar on August 23 will show forecasts of guide, control and measure revenues. In 2018 the pulp and paper industry will spend an estimated $1.1 billion for guide, control, and measure products and services. This is the latest forecast in IIoT and Remote O&M published by the McIlvaine Company. The "guide" category includes automation consulting, software and services which will generate revenues of $330 million. Control which includes automation products will result in purchases of $550 million. $220 million will be spent on measurement including analysers.

Forecasts are being provided for the top 50 pulp and paper companies. For example, IP will spend $18 million for software, and consulting and other services for IT. It will spend $30 million for controls and $12 million for analysers and measurement devices.

The performance of components has the most impact on process management success. Many suppliers of treatment chemicals, fitters, pumps, valves and other components make an important contribution to the "guide" segment. Examples of the leading "guide" initiatives of component suppliers will fill up much of the webinar. To register for this webinar click on Weekly IIoT Webinars.

McIlvaine tracks every wind, solar, biomass and hydro project. Technology advancements such as combined heat and power plus the use of CO₂ for indoor agriculture are analysed. This industry knowledge will be used as a basis to chart the future of IIoT and Remote O&M. Progress is rapid. Duke formerly had remote O&M systems provided by multiple wind turbine suppliers. All of this data is now analysed in one open platform cloud system. Purchases of guide, control and measurement products by the top 70 power companies will also be discussed.

Remote monitoring and maintenance of wind turbines is well advanced and provides a template for similar initiatives for other products. The diagnostic center of Siemens Wind Power Services in Brande, Denmark collects and evaluates all the operating data from more than 7,500 Siemens wind turbines all over the world.

Data is collected by the SCADA and Turbine Condition Monitoring (TCM) systems from Siemens. Whereas the SCADA system collects the turbines' electronic and mechanical data as well as information about the weather and power grids, TCM is a vibration recognition system. Each wind turbine nacelle contains up to nine sensors that measure the vibrations of the turbines' key components: the transmission case, the generator, and the main shaft bearing at the rotor blades. All Siemens wind turbines with an output of over two megawatts are equipped with TCM, which monitors them around the clock all year round.

Siemens engineers can remotely switch off the affected wind turbine and send someone for repair work. Remote diagnostics is especially important for dealing with faults that develop slowly over time. In some cases, Siemens engineers can detect defective main shaft bearings a whole year before they must be replaced. Thus, the experts from Siemens can anticipate damage before it makes itself felt. The center measures more than 2,500 anomalies every week. The 100 analysts at the facility investigate these error messages and transmit more than 100 early warnings to the service technicians every week. If a case is serious, the technicians go directly to the affected wind turbine to take care of the matter after the center in Brande has provided them all the information about the turbine and its operating history. To register for this webinar click on Weekly IIoT Webinars.

550 companies will spend $4 billion for macrofiltration equipment and $1.5 billion for cloths and belts in 2018. This group will purchase more than 50 percent of the $9.5 billion total purchased by all companies. McIlvaine has a number of market reports on filtration. The macrofiltration segment includes filtration of larger particles from liquids. The specific products are filter presses, belt filters, belt filter presses, drum filters, bag filters and granular media filters.

Industry	2018
Total	7,303
Chemical	789
Food	350
Metals	394
Mining	890
Other Industries	945
Pharmaceutical	405
Power	448
Pulp & Paper	155
Wastewater	1,041
Water	1,882

Here is an example of the forecasts for five food manufacturing companies. The food segment represents only 5 percent of the total market. Food garners a higher percentage for filter presses but a lower percentage for granular media filters.

The municipal water segment includes substantial purchases of granular media filters.

The forecasts for the 550 individual purchasers indicate their use by continent. However, purchasing is becoming more centralized. The trend toward IIoT and Remote O&M is allowing corporations to track performance of filters in all their plants and use data analytics to evaluate performance. This important development is analyzed in N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M.

In 2018 the pulp and paper industry will spend $220 million for analysers to measure gases, liquids and powders, (Including chips and fibers). These are instruments in continuous service or for periodic use to analyse processes.

The total market for these analysers for all industries will be over $4 billion in 2018. Forecasts by industry and individually for

The forecasts for each of the 550 companies include segmentation by type of medium (liquids, gases, powders). Further segmentation is by use. Pressure, flow, and temperature are segmented from contaminant and constituent analysis.

The analyzer suppliers are boosting revenues by including features to more accurately measure and communicate those measurements to remote monitoring centers. Companies such as Yokogawa, ABB, and Emerson manufacture both the instruments and process management systems. This gives them advantages in the new IIoT shaped world.

Other large suppliers are pursuing different strategies. Hach division of Danaher has a good position in water measuring analyzers. Their Chemtreat division supplies treatment chemicals while the Pall division supplies reverse osmosis units. This combined expertise allows measurement of membrane fouling and addition of chemicals to most efficiently operate the processes.

Other instrument suppliers are aligning themselves with process management system suppliers. Endress + Hauser is employing this strategy.

Bob McIlvaine will be a keynote speaker at the Dry Scrubber User Association conference September 19-21. There will be tours to Logan and Carneys Point power stations. The conference subjects include:

WEFTEC will be in Chicago this year from September 30 to October 4 and we will be circulating in the exhibit halls. Check it out at http://weftec2017.org/