Chinese Coal-to-Liquids and Gas Program Could Completely Change the World Energy Markets

China will increase LNG imports.  Some predict imports of 110 billion cubic meters per year (BCM) by 2020.  However, the cost of LNG is presently $16/MMBtu. This is an expensive fuel source when China has domestic options including coal-to-gas, underground coal gasification, and coal bed methane.   China is therefore changing focus and is pursuing these alternatives. The biggest program includes building plants in the western and northern coal fields which will convert coal to gas. This gas will be piped across country and provide clean burning fuel for major eastern cities.  It is the avowed solution to the smog problem.

The reason for a huge coal-to-gas program is the low cost of the product from a reliable domestic source.  Here are the cost components:

Cost of Gas Derived From Coal

   

Cost Segment

$/MMBtu

Coal

2.00

Capital

1.30

Operation and Maintenance

1.20

Total

4.50

 

The costs for coal bed methane are likely to be in the same range. Underground gasification could be even less expensive depending on the depth of the seam.

If China produces 200 BCM from coal and coal bed methane and buys only 40 BCM of LNG, then the implications on the world LNG market will be very substantial. There would be a negative effect on gas prices.  The program would benefit a gas turbine operator or gas-to-chemicals manufacturer in any country which would be a potential exporter of LNG.  Here are the Chinese gas sources under a plan to make maximum use of coal gas.

                                                                      Gas Use In China

Source

2013 BCM

2025 BCM

Conventional

100

100

Shale

20

50

Pipeline imports

20

50

LNG

20

40

Coal to gas including CBM and UBC

50

200

Total

    210

440

 

The Chinese have 15 coal-to-gas projects underway which will produce 80 BCM of gas per year.  Another 25 projects are under discussion which, if all were constructed, would raise gas from coal production to 200 BCM. This compares to the U.S. present shale gas production of 260 BCM.

China has the world’s third largest ready reserves of coal bed methane (CBM), estimated at 36.8 trillion cubic meters (TCM), of which 10 TCM can be exploited.  China plans to complete construction of two major coal bed methane production bases in the central and western regions by 2015 and increase the number to three to five in another ten years.

China is also the leader in underground gasification. It has thirty projects under discussion and one in construction.  Carbon Energy's first commercial UCG project is located at Haoqin Coal Field in Xiwuqi in Inner Mongolia, China. 

Underground coal gasification is estimated to increase reserves by 300 to 400 percent.  When coupled with coal bed methane, total recoverable reserves are sufficient to supply the world for hundreds of years.

Here is the Chinese coal production for last year compared to a very approximate estimate of coal production in 2025:

                                                               Chinese Coal Consumption

Coal Use

Million Tons 2013

Million Tons 2025

Large electric power

2,500

3,000

Residential

50

0

Industry

300

50

Heating

100

50

Steel and other ( coke)

400

700

Coal to gas including CBM and UGG

50

700

Coal-to-chemicals and fuel

120

800

Total

3,520

5,300

 

The Chinese vision entails cleaning up the air in the big cities by piping in coal gas from the west and north of the country. The elimination of 300 million tons of coal burned by industry and residences will go a long way toward reducing the smog in Beijing and elsewhere.  The Chinese leaders have been quoted as saying that the health of these citizens in the short term is a higher priority than global warming.

In China, 16 olefin and polypropylene from coal projects are due for start up by the end of next year with a combined capacity of 10 million tons per year. This new capacity will exceed the additional petrochemical capacity planned for the U.S.  So the Chinese are saying that shale gas is only one route to an inexpensive raw material for chemical manufacture.  With another 650 million tons of coal slated for coal-to-chemicals, China will be a major petrochemical manufacturer.

The conventional coal-to-fuels route uses indirect gasification.  For decades there has been research on direct liquefaction. This is potentially a much less expensive way to make high quality liquid fuels. China now has a successful commercial direct liquefaction plant in operation and two more under construction.

China has coal reserves in excess of 110 billion tons. Another 300 billion tons could be recoverable with underground coal gasification.  Coal bed methane is a reserve of equivalent size. China imported 276 million tons of coal in 2013. The environmental efforts to reduce coal burning in many countries have unintended consequences.  Reduced world demand for coal lowers prices.  China will be the beneficiary. 

World coal production is now 8 billion tons per year. China is the major consumer, but it is also the major supplier of cement and other energy intensive products, so its coal consumption is proportional.

China is leading the coal-to-gas and chemicals initiative, but India and other countries are likely to follow.  The lower the per capita GDP, the lower the relative concern about global warming and the greater the concern about the necessities of life.  To the Chinese apartment owner faced with $16/MMBtu LNG or $4.50/MMBtu coal gas, the global warming arguments are not likely to be persuasive.

China can also make a case for the total environmental benefits of the program.  If the result is smogless cities, the benefits will be very substantial.  The tradeoff between CO2 and pollutants such as NOx and particulate has been reduced to a common metric by McIlvaine in the Sustainability Universal Rating System.     

McIlvaine continually analyzes these developments in two publications N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects and N043 Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast.  The costs and potential for alternatives are analyzed in N042 Renewable Energy World Markets.  The company was founded to further environmental knowledge in 1974.  In response to the oil crisis, McIlvaine initiated the Coal Gasification and Liquefaction Knowledge System in 1979. The first issue covered DOE activities to develop direct coal liquefaction.  This technology was eventually acquired by a U.S. company Headwaters.  It is this technology 35 years later which is finally being commercially deployed in China.

How different would the situation in the Middle East be today if the U.S. had continued to support the synfuels programs?  One can only speculate. The future of Middle East supply is equally uncertain. The perspective of China faced with assured coal gas or uncertain quantities from an unreliable Russia and a region in revolution has to be weighted toward reliable supply. In other words, China will make the decision the U.S. could have made decades earlier.

Top of Form

Headlines for June 27, 2014 – Utility E-Alert

UTILITY E-ALERT

#1181 – June 27, 2014

 

Because of the Fourth of July Holiday the Next E-Alert will be July 11

 

Table of Contents

COAL – US

 

COAL - WORLD

·       Consortium agrees to develop First Phase of 1200 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Vietnam

·       POSCO Energy wins License for CHP-5 in Mongolia

 

GAS/OIL – US

·       Transco files at FERC for Rock Springs Expansion Project to New Gas-fired Power Plant in Maryland

·       Natural Gas-fired Power Plant planned for Salem Township, Pennsylvania

GAS/OIL – WORLD

·       Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas) urges New Tenders for Project 4A in Johor State, Malaysia

·       Siemens Consortium receives Turnkey Construction Order from PETRONAS for Cogeneration Power Plant in Johor, Malaysia

·       Huaneng Power International, Inc. Shanxi Dongshan Gas Turbine Project obtains Approval

·       BHI Co. awarded Contract by Samsung C&T for design and supply of HRSGs for Rabigh II Combined Cycle Power Plant in Saudi Arabia

 

NUCLEAR

·       China’s ICBC to finance Romanian Nuclear Project

·       Westinghouse developing Seismic Option for AP1000 Nuclear Reactor

·       Korean Consortium to upgrade Research Reactor in the Netherlands

 

BUSINESS

·       $9 Billion Fabric Filter System Market will expand from 4 Percent to 8 Percent a Year

·       Wisconsin Energy buying Integrys for $5.8 Billion

·       General Electric wins $17 Billion Bid to buy Alstom's Gas Turbine Business

·       Dominican Republic, AES Corp. strike US $260 Million Energy Deal

·       AES sells Minority Stake in Masinloc Power Plant and Development Projects in the Philippines to EGCO Group for $453 Million

·       FirstRand Limited Investment Banking Unit will finance $120 Million of Ghana’s $820 Million Kpone Power Plant

 

HOT TOPIC HOUR

·       The Hot Topic for June 26 was "CCR $ Billions Needed"

·       Gas Turbine Emission Control Webinar on July 17 will focux on NOx, CO and Toxics

·       Webinar on July 10 on Direct Sorbent Injection

·       Wet Calcium FGD "Hot Topic Hour" on July 24

·       Upcoming Hot Topic Hours

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See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input relative to suggested additions.

DATE

SUBJECT

           

 

 

July

 

10

Direct Sorbent Injection

 

17

Gas Turbine Emission Control

 

24

Wet Calcium FGD

 

31

Mercury Sorbent Options

 

August

 

7

MATS Timing and Technology Options

 

14

Industrial Boiler and Cement MACT Timing and Compliance Options

 

21

MEGA Symposium

 

28

Demineralization and Degasification

 

September

 

4

Hot Gas Filtration

 

11

Power Plant Pumps

 

18

Power Water Monitoring

 

25

Power Plant Water Treatment Chemicals

           

Click here for the Subscriber and Power Plant Owner/Operator Registration Form

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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com