Flow Control and Treatment Companies Will Be Unevenly Impacted By the Chinese
Slowdown and Oil Priced Drop
The flow control and treatment market will grow by 2 percent in 2016 to $340
billion. In general small Asian suppliers will achieve the highest percentage
growth. The performance of the large international companies will be mixed.
McIlvaine is analyzing each of the larger companies to compare their forecasts
to the world market trends.
Clarcor will join many other international flow control and treatment companies
who will experience revenue losses in 2016 while the world market increases
modestly. The strength of Clarcor is that a large percentage of the sales come
from consumables rather than capital equipment. The weakness is the low market
shares in Asia and certain other geographies where growth will exceed the
average.
Clarcor anticipates revenues falling by approximately 2 percent in 2016 based on
revenues of $1.4 billion.
Segment World Revenues
$ Millions Clarcor Revenues
$ Millions Clarcor % of World World % Change Clarcor % Change
Mobile Filtration 12,000 600 5 4 -4
Stationary Air Filtration 8,000 250 4 -2
Stationary Liquid Filtration Including Oil and Gas 10,000 250 -1 -2
Air Pollution Control 10,000 300 3 3 -2
Total 30,000 1,400 3 -2
Mobile filtration revenues will be up worldwide by 4 percent as more vehicles
are driven more miles. The primary growth will be in Asia. The poor quality of
ambient air in Asian countries and the need for air filters in homes and
commercial buildings will help boost stationary air filtration sales by 4
percent.
The stationary liquid filtration sales will be down only modestly due to the
high percentage of consumables in the mix. Oil production will be up in 2016
even if the capital expenditures for new equipment will be down substantially.
Companies such as Clarcor who sell replacement filters will benefit.
Two of the major unknowns and concerns in 2016 are the price of oil and gas and
the status of the Chinese economy. Neither one of these should have a
substantial impact on Clarcor sales due to its mix of products.
The growth in LNG production in the U.S. is a positive factor for Clarcor.
Clarcor expects sales of gas turbine inlet filters to remain flat in 2016 but
the world market will be up by more than 5 percent. This is a combination of
increased power generation but also increases in unit selling prices. High
efficiency filters selling at twice the price of existing medium efficiency
filters can be justified based on improvements in gas turbine operations.
A number of power plants around the world are converting their particulate
control technology from electrostatic precipitators to fabric filters. This
could boost filter sales by more than 20 percent per year when the movement is
fully implemented. The challenge for the BHA group within Clarcor will be to
achieve high market shares in countries such as China, Russia, Chile and Italy
where these conversions are presently taking place.
The McIlvaine Company forecasts market shares and markets for all the products
made by Clarcor in the following publications:
N064 Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market
N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market
N022 Air Filtration and Purification World Market
N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market
59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects
Coalescing Filters (contact for details)
Mobile Filtration (contact for details)
20,000 MW of New Gas Turbine Facilities in the U.S. Are Being Built By Just 10
Companies
Annual increases in gas turbine power generation in the U.S. will be 18,000
MW/yr over the next five years. The ten largest developers have 20,000 MW
underway at 24 different sites. This is the conclusion of the McIlvaine Company
in 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.
The ranking of the ten largest power producers is based on the proposed gas
turbine-based power capacity. (We limit our data only to those projects which
are currently still on track and are either in the approval or permitting
process or currently under construction.)
Rank Power Producer
1 Panda Power Funds
2 Dominion
3 Exelon
4 Competitive Power Ventures
5 Advanced Power
6 Duke Energy
7 Coronado Power Ventures
8 NTE Energy
9 NextEra Energy
10 PSEG
Of particular interest is that half of these companies are private companies
owned by investors with the primary intent of developing the facility, perhaps
operating it for a while, then selling it at a profit when the timing is right.
(The five are Panda, CPV, Advanced Power, Coronado and NTE.) The activity by
private companies creates an additional challenge for large component suppliers
who must forge new relationships. It is a benefit to smaller suppliers or those
new to the market that has more difficulty being considered by the large
utilities.
The U.S. will account for more than 20 percent of the new gas turbine power
generation in the next few years. This makes it an attractive market for
suppliers of power plant systems and components
For more information on 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program,
click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/610-59ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours (HTH) and Recordings
Explanation Applicable Services Schedule & Registration Sponsored Webinars
McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are
free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are
free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.
Format: 50-90 minute recorded discussion using McIlvaine display material. The
session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is required.
Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and
directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best
Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and
services.
Markets HTH
The general overviews of the market including size and major variables will be
discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers. The
presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in Mcilvaine
multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and
non-subscribers are encouraged.
Decisions HTH
Mcilvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since
1974. Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric
filter, scrubber etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on
any application. The newest addition has been slide deck systems displaying the
issues and options relative to a specific applications. Coal-fired power,
cement, steel, and waste combustion decision slide decks are continually
updated.
The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable decision
system. It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance of
the session and be prepared with questions and views.
Value to purchasers and specifiers: Your questions and interests will be
prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have
continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future
along with a networking directory of suppliers.
Value to Suppliers: You have the opportunity to provide data to be considered at
no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries in advance
and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered in the
slide deck. If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly newsletter and
continuing yearly access to the system including networking directories.
44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision
services but not 2ABC. So those with multiple technologies and at least partial
focus on power will find this combination most cost effective.
Applicable Services for Hot Topic Hours**
Pollutant
Industry Fabric Filter
(1ABC) Scrubber
(2ABC) Precipitator
(4ABC) FGD & DeNOx
(3ABC) Air Pollution
Monitoring
(9ABC) Gas
Turbine
Decisions
Mercury
February
11, 2016 Coal X X
WTE X X X
Sewage X X X
Cement X X
Natural Gas*
DeNOx
March 24, 2016 Coal X X
Incineration X X
Steel X X
Cement X X
Diesel*
Gas Turbine X X
Hot Gas
Filtration Coal X X X X
WTE X X X X
Cement X X X X
Steel X X X X
Incineration X X X X
Coal Gas X X X
GT Intake X
FGD and Acid Gas
June 16, 2016 Coal X X
Sewage X X
WTE X X
Cement X X
Steel X X
*Included in custom system
** Many of the decision guides also are displayed in the relevant market
reports. Power Plant Air Quality Decisions includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC
Which Subjects should be discussed in the Mercury Hot Topic Hour (HTH) February
11?
There are lots of questions about how to meet mercury emission limits in various
industries and countries. Answers to these questions will be continually
addressed in a new McIlvaine Program including a Hot Topic Hour (HTH) discussion
on February 11. The details on the program are explained below along with the
specific issues and options we plan to discuss. We encourage your input in
advance to add additional questions and to provide answers.
Our Decisions HTH on Mercury, DeNOx and Hot Gas Filtration will be based on
decision slide decks which will be continually updated prior to and subsequent
to the webinar. End users and subscribers have free access to the online slide
decks. It is all explained at Hot Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings on the
McIlvaine Company website.
The Mercury HTH will focus on questions from end users as well as discussions
about the merits of various approaches. One of the biggest contributions will be
to provide cross pollination between industries. The sewage sludge incinerator
plants in the U.S. and the waste-to-energy plants in Europe have some cutting
edge technologies which need to be evaluated for use in other industries.
Here is the McIlvaine view of the status and potential of the technologies for
the various industries:
Coal-fired Power Waste to Energy Sewage Sludge Incineration Cement Natural Gas
Non- Ferrous
Activated carbon injection EH PM EH PM EL PL EL PL EL PL EM PM
Activated carbon pellets EL PM EM PL EM PM EH PH
Scrubber chemicals EM PH EL PM EL PM EL PM EL PL EH PH
Gore module EL PH EL PH EM PH EL PM EL PU EL PH
Metal sorbent EL PL EL PL EL PL EL PL EM PM EH PM
Molecular sieve EL PL EL PL EL PL EH PH EL PL
Ionic liquid EL PL EL PL EL PL EL PM EL PH EL PL
E = experience P = potential H = high, M = medium, L= low, U = unknown
Are the experience and potential ratings for the various technologies accurate?
If you think otherwise you can say so during the session or better yet—send us
some support data in advance.
Each application has technology which may prove valuable for one or more of the
other applications. For example, the ionic liquids are a new approach being used
in natural gas mercury removal. The pilot systems show advantages over carbon
pellets. Sewage sludge incinerators use carbon pellets and Gore modules.
Which industries should consider ionic liquids and Gore modules as an
alternative to the present approach?
Sewage sludge incinerator operators have selected absorber modules instead of
carbon pellets for more than a dozen installations. Coal-fired power plants are
also using adsorber modules as one of the approaches. Sharing of information on
both applications will be beneficial.
Non-ferrous smelters are using metal filters but are also using scrubbers with
unique liquids. The Boliden-Norzink process involves the following three steps.
First, mercury scrubbing occurs in the reaction tower. The reaction tower is a
counter-current absorber tower made of fiber glass reinforced polypropylene
plastic. In the reaction tower, the HgCl2 solution is sprayed evenly in the
packing area and reacts with mercury in the flue gas. The second step involves
the production of the calomel mercurous chloride (Hg2Cl2), which is suspended in
solution. Some of the Hg2Cl2 is also sent to chloride process. During the final
step, the Hg2Cl2 is oxidized by Cl2 in the stirring tank.
The extensive use of chlorine in solution has been implemented in waste
incineration in Europe. Many waste-to-energy plants have multi stage scrubbers
with the first stage being used to make salable 30 percent hydrochloric acid.
What happens to the mercury in this first stage scrubber?
Is the knowledge gained by the non-ferrous industry of use to WTE operators?
The potential use of the WTE acid loop by the power industry is transformative.
The coal-fired power plant would become a chemicals complex with production of
rare earths, precious metals, hydrochloric acid, gypsum or sulfur and flyash.
The WTE experience plus the Chinese and U.S. initiatives for extraction of rare
earths from flyash can lead the way to the power/chemicals complex.
McIlvaine believes that the acid loop is transformative. What do you think? Is
there any reason in situ leaching is not vastly superior to the approaches by
the Chinese government and the U.S. DOE?
There are lots of monitoring related questions.
Where do you use sorbent traps and where do you use CEMS and shouldn’t you use
both?
Is the answer different for each of the industries?
How much mercury is escaping in the particulate form?
Should you use one CEM and two sample ports or two CEMS to analyze both inlet
and outlet mercury?
One of the experts displays slides showing that CEMS are less expensive than
sorbent traps for life cycles longer than two or three years. Do you agree?
There are lots of questions about the addition of chemicals.
If bromine is used with the coal:
• Is the corrosion worry just with section 45 installations?
• Is 75 ppm of bromine safe but 150 ppm risky?
• What about Mitagent or other chemicals to reduce corrosion potential?
• Where should halogens be injected?
What about preventing re-emissions from the scrubber.
How much additional mercury capture is achieved with chemicals added in the
scrubber loop?
Is activated carbon a viable choice for the recirculating scrubber loop?
The choice of activated carbons is important. We need to explore the differences
between one carbon and another and also to determine where and when activated
carbon should be injected.
How much performance improvement has been made by activated carbon
manufacturers?
What removal efficiency and what will be the cost for activated carbon if I just
have a precipitator?
If I have a dry scrubber, how much efficiency reduction is possible from SO3
interference and can I inject sorbent ahead of the air heater to eliminate this
potential?
How much selenium will be captured with AC?
What about concrete friendly AC and the impact on the sales of flyash?
If I operate with dry sorbent injection, do I add the AC prior to or with the
sorbent?
Mercury and NOx control variables. The decisions on NOx control effect the
mercury reduction choices.
How much mercury oxidation is achieved in so called standard catalysts vs. the
newer offerings which balance NOx reduction, SO2 conversion to SO3 and mercury
oxidation?
Regulatory issues and questions abound.
If I emit particulate mercury but don’t report it since I am using CEMS which
measures gaseous emissions as required, do I have any liability?
Will China more broadly pursue the Near Zero Emissions (NZE) goals with mercury
limits similar to the U.S. or will this just be a demonstration in certain
cities and provinces?
Will the true cost initiative which shows that mercury and fine particulate are
major costs in producing cement in China lead to mercury controls for this
industry?
Since one major Chinese cement company is also the world leader in co-combustion
of sewage sludge, will there be more extensive mercury controls on his plants?
How many countries require CEMS for mercury emissions from waste-to-energy
plants?
Each of the six decision slide decks will be revised until February 10.
McIlvaine will be at EUEC this week where many of the suppliers of mercury
removal products will be exhibiting or speaking. McIlvaine has a stand. Also you
can meet with Bob McIlvaine by contacting him in advance at mobile #847 226
2391.
HOT TOPIC HOUR (HTH) SCHEDULE
Dates for the next 6 meetings are firm; the others will be held in sequence at
approximately two week intervals. Unforeseen developments could dictate the
insertion of new subjects.
DATE SUBJECT
February 11, 2016
Decisions Mercury - Review of the issues and options for mercury removal for
sewage sludge incinerators, cement, coal fired power, and waste to energy
plants. Click Here to Register
February 25, 2016
Markets Zero Liquid Discharge - Regulatory status in US and ROW; spray drier vs.
evaporation for Chinese power plants; difference in various system designs;
total cost of ownership; valve, pump, evaporator, centrifuge, instrumentation,
materials and compressor options. Click Here to Register
March 10, 2016
Markets Gas Turbine - Intake filter, SCR, NH3, HRSG, valve, pump,
instrumentation and cooling options (dry vs. wet); treatment chemicals;
challenges with FAC due to extensive cycling. Click Here to Register
March 24, 2016
Decisions NOx Control - Review of the issues and options for NOx control in coal
fired power, cement, steel, and waste to energy plants as well as mobile diesel
vehicles. Click Here to Register
April 7, 2016
Markets Power Generation Technologies - Future of USC coal in India, Vietnam and
Indonesia; natural gas prices; GHG regulations; nuclear costs; penetration for
wind and solar. Click Here to Register
April 21, 2016
Decisions Hot Gas Filtration - Issue and Option for particulate capture. in coal
fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration. Click Here to Register
June 16, 2016
Decisions FGD and Acid Gas Separation - Issue and options for SO2 and other acid
gas separation from coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration
plants. Click Here to Register
TBA
Markets Desalination - Thermal vs. Membrane; energy recovery, pump, valve,
compressor and chemicals options; power/desalination combinations.
TBA
Markets Oil, Gas, Refining - Supply and demand; impact on flow control and
treatment products; regional impacts e.g. subsea in North Atlantic vs. shale in
the US vs. Oil Sands in Canada.
TBA
Markets Food - Analysis of 12 separate applications within food and beverage
with analysis of valve, pump, compressor, filter, analyzer and chemical options;
impact of new technologies such as forward osmosis.
TBA
Markets Municipal Wastewater - Quality of pumps, valves, filters, and analyzers
in Chinese and Asian plants; new pollutant challenges; water purification for
reuse.
TBA
Markets Mobile Emissions - Reduction in CO, VOCs, and particulate in fuels,
oils, and air used in on and off road vehicles; impact of RDE and failure of NOx
traps and the crisis in Europe created by the focus on diesels.
Click here to Register for the Webinars
___________________________________________________________________________
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information on their power point presentations. Click here for details
Hot Topic Hour Recordings
See and hear recordings of past Hot Topic Hours (Free for subscribers, $95.00
for non-subscribers)
• Chronological
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Free Sponsored Webinars
• Albemarle - Cement MACT
• AMC Power
• Aquatech
• GE - Mercury Capture
• Honeywell
• NVISTA
• Midwesco - Bagfilter Performance Analyzer
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• Pavilion
• Sick Maihak - Cement MACT
• Tekran Instruments - Cement MACT
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You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847 784 0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com