20,000 MW of New Gas Turbine Facilities in the U.S. Are Being Built by Just 10
Companies
Annual increases in gas turbine power generation in the U.S. will be 18,000
MW/yr over the next five years. The ten largest developers have 20,000 MW
underway at 24 different sites. This is the conclusion of the McIlvaine Company
in
59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.
The ranking of the ten largest power producers is based on the proposed gas
turbine-based power capacity. (We limit our data only to those projects which
are currently still on track and are either in the approval or permitting
process or currently under construction.)
Rank |
Power Producer |
|
1 |
Panda Power Funds |
|
2 |
Dominion |
|
3 |
Exelon |
|
4 |
Competitive Power Ventures |
|
5 |
Advanced Power |
|
6 |
Duke Energy |
|
7 |
Coronado Power Ventures |
|
8 |
NTE Energy |
|
9 |
NextEra Energy |
|
10 |
PSEG |
|
Of particular interest is that half of these companies are private companies
owned by investors with the primary intent of developing the facility, perhaps
operating it for a while, then selling it at a profit when the timing is right.
(The five are Panda, CPV, Advanced Power, Coronado and NTE.) The activity by
private companies creates an additional challenge for large component suppliers
who must forge new relationships. It is a benefit to smaller suppliers or those
new to the market that has more difficulty being considered by the large
utilities.
The U.S. will account for more than 20 percent of the new gas turbine power
generation in the next few years. This makes it an attractive market for
suppliers of power plant systems and components.
For more information on 59EI
Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/610-59ei
Flow Control and Treatment Companies Will Be Unevenly Impacted by the Chinese
Slowdown and Oil Price Drop
The flow control and treatment market will grow by 2 percent in 2016 to $340
billion. In general small Asian suppliers will achieve the highest percentage
growth. The performance of the large international companies will be mixed.
McIlvaine is analyzing each of the larger companies to compare their forecasts
to the world market trends.
Clarcor will join many other international flow control and treatment companies
who will experience revenue losses in 2016 while the world market increases
modestly. The strength of Clarcor is that a large percentage of the sales come
from consumables rather than capital equipment. The weakness is the low market
shares in Asia and certain other geographies where growth will exceed the
average.
Clarcor anticipates revenues falling by approximately 2 percent in 2016 based on
revenues of $1.4 billion.
Segment |
World Revenues
($ Millions) |
Clarcor Revenues
($ Millions) |
Clarcor % of World |
World % Change |
Clarcor % Change |
Mobile Filtration |
12,000 |
600 |
5 |
4 |
-4 |
Stationary Air Filtration |
8,000 |
250 |
|
4 |
-2 |
Stationary Liquid Filtration
including Oil and Gas |
10,000 |
250 |
|
-1 |
-2 |
Air Pollution Control |
10,000 |
300
|
3 |
3 |
-2 |
Total |
30,000 |
1,400 |
|
3 |
-2 |
Mobile filtration revenues will be up worldwide by 4 percent as more vehicles
are driven more miles. The primary growth will be in Asia. The poor quality of
ambient air in Asian countries and the need for air filters in homes and
commercial buildings will help boost stationary air filtration sales by 4
percent.
The stationary liquid filtration sales will be down only modestly due to the
high percentage of consumables in the mix. Oil production will be up in 2016
even if the capital expenditures for new equipment will be down substantially.
Companies such as Clarcor who sell replacement filters will benefit.
Two of the major unknowns and concerns in 2016 are the price of oil and gas and
the status of the Chinese economy. Neither one of these should have a
substantial impact on Clarcor sales due to its mix of products.
The growth in LNG production in the U.S. is a positive factor for Clarcor.
Clarcor expects sales of gas turbine inlet filters to remain flat in 2016 but
the world market will be up by more than 5 percent. This is a combination of
increased power generation but also increases in unit selling prices. High
efficiency filters selling at twice the price of existing medium efficiency
filters can be justified based on improvements in gas turbine operations.
A number of power plants around the world are converting their particulate
control technology from electrostatic precipitators to fabric filters. This
could boost filter sales by more than 20 percent per year when the movement is
fully implemented. The challenge for the BHA group within Clarcor will be to
achieve high market shares in countries such as China, Russia, Chile and Italy
where these conversions are presently taking place.
The McIlvaine Company forecasts market shares and markets for all the products
made by Clarcor in the following publications:
N064
Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market
N021
World Fabric Filter and Element Market
N022 Air
Filtration and Purification World Market
N024
Cartridge Filters: World Market
59EI Gas
Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
N049 Oil,
Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects
Coalescing Filters
(contact for details)
Mobile Filtration
(contact for details)
Desalination is a High Growth Market
Water in many countries is competing with oil as the most precious commodity.
The ocean can supply the needs of the world through desalination.
One of the limiting factors in increased desalination production has been
energy costs. With more efficient desalination technology and the low price of
oil the costs of desalination are now less than that of water from alternative
sources. This is creating a high growth market for membrane based processes and
a modest growth market for thermal processes.
China is one of a number of countries who will achieve double-digit growth in
desalination capacity in the coming five years. With 20 percent of the world’s
population but only 7 percent of its fresh water, China has embraced
desalination. The central government’s Special Plan for Seawater Utilization
calls for producing 3 million tons (807 million gallons) a day of purified
seawater by 2020—roughly quadrupling the country’s current capacity.
Of China’s 668 largest cities, at least 400 already suffer from water
scarcity. As of 2015 China was
fifth in the world in installed desalination capacity; two years earlier it
ranked ninth.
Desalination CAGR
|
Double-Digit Growth |
Chile |
China |
Mexico |
Peru |
South Africa |
Tunisia |
Turkey |
High Single-Digit Growth |
Australia |
Iran |
Iraq |
Saudi Arabia |
Singapore |
South Korea |
Taiwan |
Desalination 2016-2021 is an analysis of the desalination capacity in millions
of gallons per day (mgd) for each of 80 major countries and sub regions for each
year through 2021. The excel spreadsheet also includes sub region, region
and continent to allow analysis of larger geographical areas. Desalination
2016-2021 is available as a excel spreadsheet for $700.
To order contact:
editor@mcilvainecompany.com
Aquaculture is a Steady Growth Market
Fish is a major source of protein for over one billion people around the world,
especially in the developing countries.
In the U.S. the awareness of protein from fish consumption and other
health benefits is making fish farming a profitable business.
Over 70 percent of the world’s wild fish stock has been exploited or depleted
due to over fishing and, therefore, fish farming has become a necessity.
The market is concentrated in Asia with China and Indonesia accounting for 80
percent of current production.
Recirculating Aquaculture has advantages over sea pens and land ponds because
it reuses all resources, minimizes waste of water and other resources and has
least negative impact on the environment. This growing segment uses oxygen
monitors, aerators and other process equipment. The recirculated water is
continually purified. It is therefore an attractive market for suppliers
of flow control and treatment equipment.
There is a direct relationship between weight of fish, input air, gallons of
water to be treated and waste products. McIlvaine has compiled a forecast with
tons of fish which will be harvested by aquaculture in the next five years in
each of 80 countries and sub regions. Each excel spreadsheet also contains
a total for the region and continent for analysis of larger geographies.
Aquaculture 2015-2021 is
an electronic database delivered as an excel spreadsheet with tons of fish
forecasted for each country in each future year through 2021. The price is
$500.
To order contact:
editor@mcilvainecompany.com.
Precision Forecasting of Flow Control and Treatment Products is Now Possible
The wealth of available information and the power of the computer now make
possible bottoms-up precision forecasting of product and service revenue rather
than the traditional top-down approach.
Because of rapid changes in key factors such as oil prices or political crises,
it is now possible to economically provide precision forecasting on a
continuously updated basis.
One example is the forecasting of compressors for flue gas desulfurization
(FGD) gypsum formation. Precision forecasting requires a systematic analysis
through each of eight steps.
The first task is to select the product category. In this case it could be all
the blowers and compressors used for this service or just one of the options.
The determination of the type of blower or compressor is a task unto itself.
First one needs to determine the forecast for the product category.
The drivers include expansion of coal-fired power plants, replacement of
existing compressors but also modification of power plants. Many countries have
required retrofitting of FGD to boilers.
China is the largest purchaser of FGD gypsum blowers and compressors. The
country can be divided into nine major combinations of provinces and autonomous
zones to conform to the territory likely to be covered by an individual
salesman.
Increased electricity consumption and the desire for clean air are the basic
drivers behind the compressor purchases, so wealth, population, wants and needs
are all relevant.
Secondary drivers are critical but are the most challenging. The FGD gypsum
compressor is not used in all coal-fired power plants but only those with FGD
systems. The sub process is critical. The dry approach requires no compressors.
The wet approach with natural oxidation does not require compressors. The
incorporating product is also important. One type of scrubber (tray tower) needs
larger compressors than another type of scrubber (spray tower).
Precision forecasting requires that this comprehensive approach be used first
for all the relevant processes, sub processes and incorporating products. When
this data has already been determined, the effort to forecast compressors is
greatly reduced.
Prediction metrics are critical. Failing all else one uses value/value metrics.
A new coal-fired power plant of 1000 MW costs $2 billion. The compressors cost
$1 million, so the forecast for coal-fired power revenues can be multiplied by
.0000005. It is much better to use MW of capacity, gallons of slurry/MW and m3
of air required to obtain the prediction metrics.
The forecasts can be supplied with both revenue and unit numbers and even
average size of units. This is possible because McIlvaine tracks every new
project and existing power plant around the world and can determine average
project size.
The associated revenue is subject to many variables, so establishing the amount
of air required and number of units should be the base forecast. In a country
such as China, the cost of a compressor purchased locally vs. internationally
can be different. But one cannot use general assumptions. Investigation shows
that Chinese purchasers have spent more money for the more reliable and
efficient international compressors.
This choice is partly driven by the higher cost of electricity in China.
Efficiency vs. price is also a factor in the type of compressor or blower
selected. The forecasting is improved if the electricity costs in each
country/state/province are also known and utilized.
Precision forecasting can be achieved by McIlvaine because it integrates all the
products and services used in the $350 billion flow control and treatment market
and because it uses the eight step bottoms-up approach.
For more information click on:
Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects
Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a
Weekly Basis
Here are some headlines from the Utility E-Alert.
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1255– January 15, 2016
COAL – US
·
Obama Administration halts New Coal Leases on Federal Lands
·
LG&E
announces
Plan to
Close
and Cap
Coal Ash Ponds at Two Power Plants
·
Bankruptcy Court approves Arch motions
·
Otter Tail Power finishes Major Upgrade at Coal-fired Power Plant in Big Stone,
SD
·
KU to invest nearly $700 million to meet EPA’s new Coal Combustion Residuals
Rule
COAL – WORLD
·
New Report from the IEA Clean Coal Centre
·
EGCO continuing with 500 MW Coal-fired Power Plant Project in the Philippines
·
Rukwa Coal receives
Three
New
prospecting
Licenses
in Tanzania
·
Environment Ministry okays New Thermal Power Project in Chennai, India
The
41F
Utility E-Alert
is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other
information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the
$3020
42EI
Utility Tracking System
which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and
many other features.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com