Coal-fired Power Generation will Continue to be the Leader Through 2020
Driven by the expansion of coal-fired power generation in China and India, coal
will continue to be the first choice for new power generation. Between 2009 and
2020, 800 GW of coal-fired capacity will be added compared to less than 500 GW
for gas-fired and 55 GW for nuclear. This is the latest forecast in Fossil &
Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast published by the McIlvaine
Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Generation Type 2009 GW 2020 GW % Increase Total % Increase Annual
Nuclear 375 430 15 1.4
Coal 1600 2400 50 4.5
Gas 823 1300 58 5.3
Total 2798 4130 48 4.4
Coal is starting from a larger base so the expansion rate will only be 4.5% vs.
5.3% for gas. Nuclear has a bright future beyond 2020 but the market is
developing slowly. Wind is growing at double-digit rates. Offshore wind is
growing at more than 20%/yr but the problem is that the base is tiny.
Nevertheless, wind could account for 30% of European power generation by 2030.
But in the time frame through 2020 only nuclear, coal, gas, and hydro will have
significant impact.
The reliance on coal is seen in a comparison of China and the U.S. in terms of
electricity output.
GWH by Fuel Type 2008
Fuel Type U.S. GWH U.S. % China GWH China %
Coal 2000 49.0 2500 82.9
Gas 839 20.5 14 0.5
Nuclear 816 20.0 3 0.1
Hydro 317 7.8 435 14.5
Biomass 49 1.1 1 0.0
Waste 23 0.6 54 1.8
Geothermal 16 0.4 1 0.0
Solar 1 0.0 1 0.0
Wind 26 0.6 6 0.2
Other 2 0.0 1 0.0
Total 4089 100 3016 100
China is generating more electricity from coal than is the U.S. On the other
hand, it has no other significant source of power other than hydro. It leads the
world in both wind and solar activity but it is doing so from a very low base.
It has an active nuclear program and will account for many of the nuclear
reactors built prior to 2020, but this is still a relatively small amount of
capacity.
In Europe and the U.S. the climate change concerns continue to slow usage of
coal for new generation. However, one encouraging development is the co-location
of cellulosic biomass and coal-firing. Great Rivers Energy is moving forward
with this combination at its new Spiritwood facility. The carbon footprint of
the combination is less than for a stand-alone gas-fired power plant. The reason
is the use of waste steam by the ethanol plant and waste biomass by the
coal-fired power plant.
For more information on Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis &
Forecast
(Formerly World Coal-Fired), click on: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#n043.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847 784 0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com