448 Companies and Projects Will Account For 41 Percent of Liquid
Macrofiltration Purchases
Sales of liquid macrofiltration equipment will be $6.9 billion in 2015.
Suppliers who focus on 448 purchasers, engineering firms and large projects will
be addressing 36 percent of the total potential. This is the conclusion reached
by the McIlvaine Company in N006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets.
Large operators, system suppliers and architect engineers influence the majority
of the purchases. A relatively small number of large projects also account for
much of the market. There is overlap in that most of the large projects involve
large operators and many of the filter specifications are made by large
engineering firms. Some of the large projects such as a big new potash plant in
Canada do not involve major operators. If a supplier pursues the large projects
as well as the large operators, suppliers and engineering companies, he will be
addressing 36 percent of the market.
The scope of the report includes filter presses, belt filter presses, drum
filters, automatic backwashing filters, granular media filters and bag filters.
There are thousands of purchasers of filters. Many of the projects are quite
small. These small projects involve filter sales of less than $40,000. Large
projects with filter equipment needs of more than $40,000 account for 15 percent
of the revenue in the chemical industry and 30 percent of the revenue in the
mining industry.
Sixty large companies and projects will address 20 percent of the chemical
industry market of $700 million. Average purchases for the 60 will be $2.3
million creating an opportunity of $140 million.
There is a concentration among chemical industry purchasers. For example, BASF
will account for 1.8 percent of the liquid filtration purchases in the chemical
sector. The top 10 chemical companies will account for 10 percent of the
purchases.
In the “other industry” sector, 230 companies/projects have been identified
whose purchases will average more than $3.9 million each.
The mining sector is concentrated with just 53 companies making 51 percent of
the decisions. ArcelorMittal operates coal and iron mines but also operates
close to 100 steel mills as well. It purchases more than 1 percent of all liquid
filtration equipment.
It is recommended that liquid filtration suppliers create specific programs to
address this combination of companies and projects. The relatively small number
of large opportunities makes a proactive approach possible. McIlvaine has
created a unique route to market by combining the Detailed Forecasting of
Markets, Prospects and Projects with McIlvaine project tracking services.
For more information on this program contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
Intelligent Pollution Control
The world faces difficult pollution control decisions. For every dollar spent on
pollution control, there is an alternative investment in health improvement. For
every dollar spent on reducing one pollutant, there is an alternative to reduce
another. The most prudent course to make the best investment should include:
• Intelligent uncertainty
• Intelligent classification of options
• Intelligent reliance on niche expertise
• Tribal value recognition
• Net present value recognition
The history of climate change research can be measured in decades. Research on
particulate pollution is measured in millennia. In England in the middle ages,
the color of chimney smoke was used as a basis for regulation. Despite the
struggles to eliminate particulate pollution, it remains the pollutant with the
most negative impact on human health.
The science of particulate capture has progressed tremendously over the
centuries. Today it is known that small particles are more deleterious than
large ones. Many regulations are precisely written around particles smaller than
2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5). Immense numbers of research papers provide
great statistical detail based on this size classification.
However, there is a problem. Few particles are spheres. There is also a weight
differential. A tubular shaped particle of silica has to be equated to a sphere
of lead. The analytical methods use “intelligent classification.” But one should
view any conclusions based on particle size with “intelligent uncertainty.”
There are two different worlds of particulate removal. One deals with pollution
control of stack gases. The other deals with purifying air for semiconductor
cleanrooms. A tester using a high efficiency (HEPA) filter inserted in the stack
and remaining clean will pronounce the air as clean as the most pure ambient air
on earth.
However, there is another problem. The most pure air on the most pristine
mountain is very dirty according to operators of semiconductor plants. In fact
this air contains more than 100,000 small particles per cubic foot. As a result,
semiconductor plants invest heavily to create Class 1 cleanrooms with less than
one particle per cubic foot. They use a technique called condensation nuclei
particle counters to make the efficiency measurement.
The complexity and uncertainty relative to the most researched pollutant should
inspire us to apply intelligent uncertainty to any and all recommended
initiatives. Intelligent classification entails effort. Furthermore, intelligent
use of niche expertise is essential. If you need filters for your cleanroom, you
do not utilize an expert in stack gas control.
Global warming decisions are enhanced by experts in tens of thousands of niches.
The complexities are infinitely greater than those affecting particulate
emissions. The scope of advice extracted from each expert should be narrowed to
his area of expertise. The expert on sea level rise should not be asked what
percentage of electricity should come from solar energy.
Tribal Values: Regulations on NOx have resulted in extensive investment in
selective catalytic reduction (SCR) by power plants. NOx travels thousands of
miles. So the reduction at one source does not necessarily benefit nearby
citizens. However, these SCR systems also generate sulfuric acid in varying
amounts. The acid is deposited near the stack. In one case in Ohio, the SCR
installation resulted in so much acidic damage that the power plant bought and
demolished an entire small town (better catalysts have now eliminated this
problem).
We have a moral issue regarding tribal values. The world tribe benefits from NOx
control but the Cheshire, Oho tribe lost everything. Global warming will benefit
some people and negatively impact others. Each country will have to decide
whether to put aside tribal values for the good of the world. Since countries
such as the U.S. spend 99.9 percent of resources on the U.S. tribe and almost
nothing on the Sudanese or Syrians. the tribal value is a factor which must be
addressed.
Net Present Value: Some pollution control benefits are immediate. Others are
longer term. What is the comparative value for something which benefits us or
benefits our grandchildren? There is no simple or universal answer. Economists
use net present value. The annual anticipated interest rate discounts the future
value. However, this rate will vary greatly between developing and developed
countries. Those who have everything are more interested in creating a better
environment for their grandchildren. Those without anything are worried about
keeping their children alive for the next month.
Last week China approved a $20 billion pipeline to transfer gas derived from
coal to cities thousands of miles away from the north central coal regions where
the coal will be gasified. This clean gas will be used in boilers and gas
turbines to replace solid fuels which are causing much of the smog in Chinese
cities. The immediate benefit will be enormous. Hundreds of thousands of lives
may be saved as a result of this program.
The greenhouse gas impacts will also be significant. Some CO2 will be generated
as a result of the gasification process. When the gas is burned in the turbines
and boilers, additional CO2 will be generated. However, if the alternative is
imported LNG, then the impact is much less. Some of this gas will replace cow
dung, wood chips and coal used in small boilers and cooking fires. In these
applications, the gas substitution is a big environmental improvement.
Alternatively, China could accelerate its wind and solar program. However, this
program could not be accelerated to have the immediate impact of the
gasification pipeline.
So this decision by China involves important tribal and net present value
considerations. The gasification program will clearly benefit the Chinese but
will contribute to the world’s global warming. The gasification program will
save many lives in the short term, but may create a less desirable world 50
years from now. It is likely that China cannot be dissuaded from this program at
the 2015 United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris because tribal
values are strong and, as a developing country, China places higher value on the
present than do the wealthiest countries.
The solutions to the world’s pollution problems should be considered with
intelligent uncertainty utilizing the best combination of niche experts who will
provide the most valuable classifications including the tribal and net present
values.
McIlvaine Company takes into account the potential impact of these factors in
its forecasting and believes that this consideration is necessary for the
greatest possible benefit to clients. Information on consulting services can be
obtained from Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
$100 Billion Annual Gas Turbine Market
Worldwide installations of new gas turbines will average 74,000 MW per year over
the next five years. The system sales revenue will be $75 billion per year. GE,
Siemens and the other turbine vendors will generate revenues of $20 billion/yr.
just for the turbine equipment. This is the latest projection in 59EI Gas
Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program published by the McIlvaine Company.
The worldwide installed gas turbine capacity is 1.5 million MW. Purchases of
repair parts consumables and upgrades at existing power plants will average $30
billion/yr. Part of this investment will be a result of greenhouse gas
initiatives. The least expensive way to reduce the carbon footprint is to make
the existing gas turbine more efficient. Adding the steam cycle makes the
biggest difference but there are other options as well. Inlet filter replacement
for existing units will be more than $500 million. Another $460 million will be
spent for SCR systems and catalyst per year. The market for replacement parts
for pumps and valves will be significant.
The gas turbine equipment suppliers purchase most of the components they furnish
as part of turbine packages. Complete turnkey systems, including the gas
turbine, steam turbine, cooling towers, HRSG, SCR, etc. are sold by a number of
companies who do not manufacture turbines. Despite the fact that the purchaser
could be an end user, a system supplier or an EPC, the number of companies
purchasing filters, treatment chemicals, instrumentation, pumps and valves is
very limited.
Those suppliers selling hardware for new power plants need to contact the
operators, the system suppliers and the engineering companies. Those selling
consumables have a more limited target.
It terms of end users, there are less than 100 power plant operators who will
buy most of the equipment and consumables. E.ON has 23,000 MW of gas turbines in
operation while Calpine has 26,000 MW. Together they have over 3 percent of the
world’s installed capacity. The number of system suppliers and engineering
companies is also limited. Black & Veatch, Burns & McDonnell, Sargent & Lundy,
Bechtel, Kiewit and a few other U.S. based architect engineers do a lion’s share
of the engineering work.
The number of equipment vendors is even more limited. GE had a 49 percent of the
global gas turbine market last year, followed by Siemens with 23 percent,
Mitsubishi Hitachi with 17 percent and Alstom with 2 percent. With the purchase
of Alstom, the GE share will rise above 50 percent. In addition, GE has made a
huge investment in a new more efficient design which may boost their share well
above 50 percent.
GE’s new flagship, HA Turbines, will be the largest and most efficient in their
class. The first delivery was to EDF’s Bouchain combined cycle power plant in
France in August and is now being installed. The first U.S. order is from
Exelon. Four 7HA turbines intended for expansions at the Wolf Hollow and
Colorado Bend plants in Texas are expected to come online in 2017.
The 50-hertz 9HA and 60-hertz 7HA both come in two different models. The 9HA.01
is rated at 397 MW in simple cycle mode and 592 MW in 1 x 1 combined cycle mode,
while the 9HA.02 is rated at 510 MW in simple cycle and 755 MW in combined
cycle. The 7HA.01 and 7HA.02, meanwhile, are rated at 275 MW and 405 MW and 337
MW and 468 MW, respectively.
Both designs can achieve better than 41 percent efficiency in simple cycle and
more than 61 percent in combined cycle. GE says the 9HA.01—the model slated for
Bouchain—can reach full power in 30 minutes and ramp at 60 MW per minute.
GE already has $1 billion in firm orders for 7HA and 9HA turbines—16 units so
far—and 53 potential projects around the world have opted for the turbines. GE
hopes to sell up to 500 of the new design by 2030, which could represent up to
half of its gas turbine sales.
For hardware purchased directly by gas turbine suppliers, one company represents
more than 50 percent of the potential and three companies combine for 90
percent.
Most suppliers have a direct sales force for large customers and a network of
sales representatives or distributors for the balance of sales. Since 70 percent
of the sales will be to less than 100 large operators, equipment suppliers and
engineering companies, it is important to focus on the direct sales effort.
McIlvaine has developed Detailed Forecasts of Markets, Prospects and Projects
which is included along with 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier
Program.
For more information on this program contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours and Recordings
McIlvaine webinars offer the opportunity to view the latest presentations and
join discussions while sitting at your desk. Hot Topic Hours cater to the end
users as well as suppliers while the Market Updates cater to the suppliers and
investors. Since McIlvaine records and provides streaming media access to these
webinars there is a treasure trove of value only a click away. McIlvaine
webinars are free to certain McIlvaine service subscribers. There is a charge
for others. Hot Topic Hours are free to owner/operators. Sponsored webinars
provide insights to particular products and services. They are free. Recordings
can be immediately viewed from the list provided below.
DATE UPCOMING HOT TOPIC HOUR UPCOMING MARKET UPDATES
Dec. 3, 2015 NOx Reduction
Decision guide to selection of SCR and SCR systems,
ammonia injection, reagents, catalysts for power plants
refineries, incinerators, chemical plants and other applications.
Click here to register
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com