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300 Large Oil and Gas Projects Account For 80 Percent of the Flow Control and Treatment Purchases
Some oil and gas projects include hundreds of millions of dollars of pumps, valves, filters, compressors and other flow control and treatment equipment. The top 300 projects each year account for more than 80 percent of the purchases. McIlvaine tracks these in the bi-weekly Oil, Gas, Shale, Refining E-Alert.

October 30 Oil and Gas E Alert covering two week period
Project Name Description Total Amount
$ Millions Flow
Control
Treat
$ Millions Order
Yr
20+
Enbridge Canadian pipeline 38,000 300 16-19
Odebrecht Pipeline in Peru 4,000 40 17-19
Golar FLNG off Cameroon 8,000 90 17
Saudi Arabia's PetroRabigh Petrochemical and refining complexes 10,000 200 16-18
Dung Quat Refinery New refinery in Vietnam 4,000 90 16

Rosneft New refining and petrochemical complexes in Eastern Russia 10.000 200 17-19
10 additional large projects LNG, refining, extraction 50,000 1,000 16-19
Total 124,000 1,920
Sixteen projects reported in the latest bi-weekly issue account for close to $2 billion of purchases of flow control and treatment equipment. The scope includes oil and gas extraction, LNG, gas-to-liquids processing, and tar sands processing.

The Alert is available separately but is also available as part of N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects, which provides a complete program for detailed market, prospect and project forecasting. For more information on Oil, Gas, Shale, Refining E-Alert: click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/28-energy/991-71ei.
Track All the Coal Activity in India, China, Vietnam and Indonesia
Here are some of the headlines from our Utility E Alert:

 60 GW of New Capacity in Indonesia over the 10 Years ending 2022
 Precipitators and some FGD Systems are installed on Indonesian Coal-fired Power Plants
 PLN is among the Top 500 Flow Control and Treatment Purchasers
 KEL, Chinese Firms sign Deal for 700 MW Coal-fired Power Plant
 1,320-MW Coal-fired Power Plant underway in Karachi, Pakistan
 Krabi Coal-fired Power Plant 'will have Little Environmental Impact'
 Gayatri Projects JV TPCIL commissions 1320 MW Power Plant in Krishnapatnam
 New Chinese Power Plant Projects
 More than 1100 New Coal-fired Power Plants are in Planning or Construction
Four Asian countries will purchase more new coal-fired power plants than exist in the U.S. and Europe combined over the next 10 years. The weekly Utility E Alert is only 950/yr. Check it out at: 41F Utility E-Alert
DETAILED FORECASTING OF MARKETS, PROSPECTS AND PROJECTS

It is now possible to precisely segment and predict markets, identify the prospects, and track the most important projects.
A few hundred companies make most of the flow control and treatment purchasing decisions. McIlvaine is identifying them and reporting on their activities.
Detailed forecasting of markets, prospects and projects provides the following benefits:
Improve decisions on allocation of direct sales, promotion and development expenditures
Increase orders cost effectively
Review strategy with better insights as to improvement
Find out the details with: Power Point Presentation
Power Plant FGD Pumps Are a Fast Growing Segment in the Pump Industry
The power industry has been on a spending spree for new coal-fired power plants. Led by China this spree has finally peaked but will remain at a high level thanks to India, Vietnam and Indonesia which are embarked on ambitious programs. Total purchases of pumps by the power industry will grow modestly from $3 billion this year to $3.2 billion in 2020. Centrifugal pumps will account for two-thirds of the purchases.
Eighty percent of the pump purchases for the power industry will be made by less than one hundred corporations. PLN in Indonesia will install more new coal-fired boilers than all the utilities in Europe and the U.S. combined. Electricity Vietnam (EVN) will build twice as many as PLN. Several Indian utilities will also build large numbers of new plants.

Sales in Asia will exceed other continents due to both the quantity of new power generation and the choice of fuel. Most new capacity in Asia will be coal-fired where in the U.S., the new capacity will be gas-fired. Coal generators spend three times as much for pumps compared to gas turbine power plants. Pumps are used for cooling water, ultrapure water, steam, FGD recycling slurry and wastewater treatment.
The fastest growing segment of the market has been pumps for flue gas desulfurization (FGD). The reason is that FGD systems are being installed in many older power plants as well as most new ones.
Seventeen coal-fired power plant operators have purchased FGD pumps for 725,000 MW of coal-fired boilers. This represents 56 percent of the total installed capacity. The selection of pumps is typically jointly made by the owner and the supplier. The supply of FGD systems is also concentrated with just nine companies accounting for 45 percent of the total. Suppliers of FGD pumps can focus on less than one hundred companies to address 90 percent of the available market.
FGD System Purchases By Power Plant Owners
# of
Corp # of FGD MW/Corporation
(1000) Total
MW
(1000) % of
Total
Installed Base Examples
7 Over 50 575 44 Big 5 Chinese Corp
10 10-50 150 12 AEP, TVA, Duke, Enel, EON
15 5-10 105 8 NRG, Xcel, Tokyo Electric, Chubu Electric
20 3-5 80 6 AES, EPDC, RWE, CEZ
52 Sub total 910 70
350 0-3 390 30 U.S., Europe, China
404 Total 1300 100
Over the next five years, 318,000 MW of FGD systems and pumps are forecast to be installed on new plants. The five largest purchasers are expected to purchase 33 percent of the total. Twenty companies are expected to purchase 75 percent of the total in terms of MW and total dollars. New players in Vietnam and Indonesia plus large owners in China will be the main buyers. So concentration of expenditures in the top one hundred companies will continue.

FGD systems require small pumps to recirculate lime slurry to ball mills and provide mist eliminator wash. Metering pumps are required for chemicals to scaling in the scrubbers and to prevent mercury remissions. Scrubber underflow pumps deliver the gypsum through hydrocyclones to the belt filters. The gypsum wash water is pumped through a wastewater treatment system with additional transfer and metering pumps. The extremely large pumps are used for recirculating the calcium sulfite/sulfate slurries. The FGD recirculating pump requirements can exceed 400,000 gpm for single plant pump orders ranging from $200,000 to $4 million.
The system supplier often selects and furnishes the pump to the power plant. There are less than one hundred suppliers of FGD systems. The Chinese suppliers along with a few U.S. and Japanese companies dominate the FGD market.
Suppliers of FGD Systems

# of
Corp # of FGD MW/Supplier
1000 Total
MW
1000 % of
Total
Installed Base Examples
9 Over 50 580 45 Longyuan, Bootes, Longking, Wuhan Kaidi, B&W, MHPS, Alstom
12 25-50 330 25 FW, MET, Zhejiang, Yuanda, Huandian, Chiyoda, Babcock, Hamon
12 10-25 160 12 Tiandi, GCL, Datang, SPC, Andritz. IHI, Kawasaki
20 5-10 140 11 Yonker, ZAEPG, Feida, Sanhem, KC Cottrell, CB
53 Sub total 1210 93
35 0-5 90 7 10 Chinese, 5 U.S., 10 European, 10 ROW
88 Total 1300 100

A number of Chinese companies have supplied more than 50,000 MW of FGD systems. One supplier has installed more than 100,000 MW. A number of these systems are through licenses with international companies. The analysis is based on the actual supplier rather than the licensor. MHPS, MET, B&W, Alstom and some others have large numbers of systems when both the direct supply and licensed totals are included. The Chinese license payments are dropping as a percentage of revenue. Design improvements are being initiated in China. As a result, suppliers need to deal directly with the Chinese companies and not the licensors.
Many pump companies supply the smaller pumps used in FGD systems but few companies have been able to meet the requirements for recirculation of the slurry. Eight 50,000 gpm slurry pumps are needed to meet the requirements of a large plant. Only a few companies have abrasion and corrosion resistant slurry pumps capable of this flow rate. Weir, KSB and Duechting have been major suppliers but are now being joined by Asian based companies in the pursuit of this market.
McIlvaine has introduced a program incorporating detailed forecasting of total potential sales revenue for each major prospect, project and OEM purchaser of pumps in each industry. The program is based on the detailed forecasting in N019 Pumps World Market. The power segment program also includes 42EI Utility Tracking System. For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
430 Companies and Projects Will Account For 41 Percent of Industrial Scrubber Purchases
Sales of industrial scrubbers will be $6.8 billion in 2015. Suppliers who focus on 433 purchasers, engineering firms and large projects will be addressing 41 percent of the total potential. This is the conclusion reached by the McIlvaine Company in N008 Scrubber/Adsorber/Biofilter World Markets.


The scope of the report includes both wet and dry scrubbers as well as carbon adsorbers and biofilters. More than 40 percent of the market totaling $3 billion is concentrated in a few industries. Of a total scrubber market of $500 million in oil and gas, $300 million can be identified with 40 companies and projects.

There are thousands of purchases of scrubbers. Many of the projects are quite small. However, 60 large companies and projects will address 20 percent of the chemical industry market of $80 million. Average purchases for the 50 will be $2.7 million creating an opportunity of $160 million.
In the “other industry” sector, 205 companies/projects have been identified whose purchases will average more than $9 million each. This includes large mining projects and steel complexes as well as the companies who own them.
There is a concentration among purchasers. For example, BASF will account for 1.8 percent of the scrubber purchases in the chemical sector. The top 10 chemical companies will account for 10 percent of the purchases. In the electronics sector, Samsung will be the leading purchaser. In the metals sector, ArcelorMittal which produces 6 percent of the world’s steel will be the leader.
In the oil and gas sector, five companies will account for 50 percent of the scrubber purchases. Ten engineering companies will be specifying or buying 30 percent of the scrubbers. There are some very large gas-to-liquids and refinery projects which will account for 20 percent of the scrubbers purchased for the sector. In many cases, the large purchasers are using the engineering firms who are designing the large projects, so there is an overlap. The result is that 40 companies and projects will account for scrubber purchases of $300 million.
Large prospects, OEMs and large projects comprise a big share of the market. It varies by industry. In the oil and gas industry, the large purchasers account for 50 percent of the market. The large OEMs are addressing 30 percent. The large projects also address 30 percent. There is overlap with some large projects also involving large OEMs and large purchasers. The result is that the combination addresses an adjusted 60 percent of the total. By contrast, pulp and paper is 40 percent.

It is recommended that scrubber suppliers create specific programs to address this combination of companies and projects. The relatively small number of large opportunities makes a proactive approach possible. McIlvaine has created a unique route to market by combining the detailed forecasting in N008 Scrubber/Adsorber/Biofilter World Markets with McIlvaine project tracking services.
For more information on contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com