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300 Large Oil and Gas Projects Account For 80 Percent of the Flow Control and
Treatment Purchases
Some oil and gas projects include hundreds of millions of dollars of pumps,
valves, filters, compressors and other flow control and treatment equipment. The
top 300 projects each year account for more than 80 percent of the purchases.
McIlvaine tracks these in the bi-weekly Oil, Gas, Shale, Refining E-Alert.
October 30 Oil and Gas E Alert covering two week period
Project Name Description Total Amount
$ Millions Flow
Control
Treat
$ Millions Order
Yr
20+
Enbridge Canadian pipeline 38,000 300 16-19
Odebrecht Pipeline in Peru 4,000 40 17-19
Golar FLNG off Cameroon 8,000 90 17
Saudi Arabia's PetroRabigh Petrochemical and refining complexes 10,000 200 16-18
Dung Quat Refinery New refinery in Vietnam 4,000 90 16
Rosneft New refining and petrochemical complexes in Eastern Russia 10.000 200
17-19
10 additional large projects LNG, refining, extraction 50,000 1,000 16-19
Total 124,000 1,920
Sixteen projects reported in the latest bi-weekly issue account for close to $2
billion of purchases of flow control and treatment equipment. The scope includes
oil and gas extraction, LNG, gas-to-liquids processing, and tar sands
processing.
The Alert is available separately but is also available as part of N049 Oil,
Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects, which provides a complete program
for detailed market, prospect and project forecasting. For more information on
Oil, Gas, Shale, Refining E-Alert: click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/28-energy/991-71ei.
Track All the Coal Activity in India, China, Vietnam and Indonesia
Here are some of the headlines from our Utility E Alert:
60 GW of New Capacity in Indonesia over the 10 Years ending 2022
Precipitators and some FGD Systems are installed on Indonesian Coal-fired
Power Plants
PLN is among the Top 500 Flow Control and Treatment Purchasers
KEL, Chinese Firms sign Deal for 700 MW Coal-fired Power Plant
1,320-MW Coal-fired Power Plant underway in Karachi, Pakistan
Krabi Coal-fired Power Plant 'will have Little Environmental Impact'
Gayatri Projects JV TPCIL commissions 1320 MW Power Plant in Krishnapatnam
New Chinese Power Plant Projects
More than 1100 New Coal-fired Power Plants are in Planning or Construction
Four Asian countries will purchase more new coal-fired power plants than exist
in the U.S. and Europe combined over the next 10 years. The weekly Utility E
Alert is only 950/yr. Check it out at: 41F Utility E-Alert
DETAILED FORECASTING OF MARKETS, PROSPECTS AND PROJECTS
It is now possible to precisely segment and predict markets, identify the
prospects, and track the most important projects.
A few hundred companies make most of the flow control and treatment purchasing
decisions. McIlvaine is identifying them and reporting on their activities.
Detailed forecasting of markets, prospects and projects provides the following
benefits:
Improve decisions on allocation of direct sales, promotion and development
expenditures
Increase orders cost effectively
Review strategy with better insights as to improvement
Find out the details with: Power Point Presentation
Power Plant FGD Pumps Are a Fast Growing Segment in the Pump Industry
The power industry has been on a spending spree for new coal-fired power plants.
Led by China this spree has finally peaked but will remain at a high level
thanks to India, Vietnam and Indonesia which are embarked on ambitious programs.
Total purchases of pumps by the power industry will grow modestly from $3
billion this year to $3.2 billion in 2020. Centrifugal pumps will account for
two-thirds of the purchases.
Eighty percent of the pump purchases for the power industry will be made by less
than one hundred corporations. PLN in Indonesia will install more new coal-fired
boilers than all the utilities in Europe and the U.S. combined. Electricity
Vietnam (EVN) will build twice as many as PLN. Several Indian utilities will
also build large numbers of new plants.
Sales in Asia will exceed other continents due to both the quantity of new power
generation and the choice of fuel. Most new capacity in Asia will be coal-fired
where in the U.S., the new capacity will be gas-fired. Coal generators spend
three times as much for pumps compared to gas turbine power plants. Pumps are
used for cooling water, ultrapure water, steam, FGD recycling slurry and
wastewater treatment.
The fastest growing segment of the market has been pumps for flue gas
desulfurization (FGD). The reason is that FGD systems are being installed in
many older power plants as well as most new ones.
Seventeen coal-fired power plant operators have purchased FGD pumps for 725,000
MW of coal-fired boilers. This represents 56 percent of the total installed
capacity. The selection of pumps is typically jointly made by the owner and the
supplier. The supply of FGD systems is also concentrated with just nine
companies accounting for 45 percent of the total. Suppliers of FGD pumps can
focus on less than one hundred companies to address 90 percent of the available
market.
FGD System Purchases By Power Plant Owners
# of
Corp # of FGD MW/Corporation
(1000) Total
MW
(1000) % of
Total
Installed Base Examples
7 Over 50 575 44 Big 5 Chinese Corp
10 10-50 150 12 AEP, TVA, Duke, Enel, EON
15 5-10 105 8 NRG, Xcel, Tokyo Electric, Chubu Electric
20 3-5 80 6 AES, EPDC, RWE, CEZ
52 Sub total 910 70
350 0-3 390 30 U.S., Europe, China
404 Total 1300 100
Over the next five years, 318,000 MW of FGD systems and pumps are forecast to be
installed on new plants. The five largest purchasers are expected to purchase 33
percent of the total. Twenty companies are expected to purchase 75 percent of
the total in terms of MW and total dollars. New players in Vietnam and Indonesia
plus large owners in China will be the main buyers. So concentration of
expenditures in the top one hundred companies will continue.
FGD systems require small pumps to recirculate lime slurry to ball mills and
provide mist eliminator wash. Metering pumps are required for chemicals to
scaling in the scrubbers and to prevent mercury remissions. Scrubber underflow
pumps deliver the gypsum through hydrocyclones to the belt filters. The gypsum
wash water is pumped through a wastewater treatment system with additional
transfer and metering pumps. The extremely large pumps are used for
recirculating the calcium sulfite/sulfate slurries. The FGD recirculating pump
requirements can exceed 400,000 gpm for single plant pump orders ranging from
$200,000 to $4 million.
The system supplier often selects and furnishes the pump to the power plant.
There are less than one hundred suppliers of FGD systems. The Chinese suppliers
along with a few U.S. and Japanese companies dominate the FGD market.
Suppliers of FGD Systems
# of
Corp # of FGD MW/Supplier
1000 Total
MW
1000 % of
Total
Installed Base Examples
9 Over 50 580 45 Longyuan, Bootes, Longking, Wuhan Kaidi, B&W, MHPS, Alstom
12 25-50 330 25 FW, MET, Zhejiang, Yuanda, Huandian, Chiyoda, Babcock, Hamon
12 10-25 160 12 Tiandi, GCL, Datang, SPC, Andritz. IHI, Kawasaki
20 5-10 140 11 Yonker, ZAEPG, Feida, Sanhem, KC Cottrell, CB
53 Sub total 1210 93
35 0-5 90 7 10 Chinese, 5 U.S., 10 European, 10 ROW
88 Total 1300 100
A number of Chinese companies have supplied more than 50,000 MW of FGD systems.
One supplier has installed more than 100,000 MW. A number of these systems are
through licenses with international companies. The analysis is based on the
actual supplier rather than the licensor. MHPS, MET, B&W, Alstom and some others
have large numbers of systems when both the direct supply and licensed totals
are included. The Chinese license payments are dropping as a percentage of
revenue. Design improvements are being initiated in China. As a result,
suppliers need to deal directly with the Chinese companies and not the
licensors.
Many pump companies supply the smaller pumps used in FGD systems but few
companies have been able to meet the requirements for recirculation of the
slurry. Eight 50,000 gpm slurry pumps are needed to meet the requirements of a
large plant. Only a few companies have abrasion and corrosion resistant slurry
pumps capable of this flow rate. Weir, KSB and Duechting have been major
suppliers but are now being joined by Asian based companies in the pursuit of
this market.
McIlvaine has introduced a program incorporating detailed forecasting of total
potential sales revenue for each major prospect, project and OEM purchaser of
pumps in each industry. The program is based on the detailed forecasting in N019
Pumps World Market. The power segment program also includes 42EI Utility
Tracking System. For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
430 Companies and Projects Will Account For 41 Percent of Industrial Scrubber
Purchases
Sales of industrial scrubbers will be $6.8 billion in 2015. Suppliers who focus
on 433 purchasers, engineering firms and large projects will be addressing 41
percent of the total potential. This is the conclusion reached by the McIlvaine
Company in N008 Scrubber/Adsorber/Biofilter World Markets.
The scope of the report includes both wet and dry scrubbers as well as carbon
adsorbers and biofilters. More than 40 percent of the market totaling $3 billion
is concentrated in a few industries. Of a total scrubber market of $500 million
in oil and gas, $300 million can be identified with 40 companies and projects.
There are thousands of purchases of scrubbers. Many of the projects are quite
small. However, 60 large companies and projects will address 20 percent of the
chemical industry market of $80 million. Average purchases for the 50 will be
$2.7 million creating an opportunity of $160 million.
In the “other industry” sector, 205 companies/projects have been identified
whose purchases will average more than $9 million each. This includes large
mining projects and steel complexes as well as the companies who own them.
There is a concentration among purchasers. For example, BASF will account for
1.8 percent of the scrubber purchases in the chemical sector. The top 10
chemical companies will account for 10 percent of the purchases. In the
electronics sector, Samsung will be the leading purchaser. In the metals sector,
ArcelorMittal which produces 6 percent of the world’s steel will be the leader.
In the oil and gas sector, five companies will account for 50 percent of the
scrubber purchases. Ten engineering companies will be specifying or buying 30
percent of the scrubbers. There are some very large gas-to-liquids and refinery
projects which will account for 20 percent of the scrubbers purchased for the
sector. In many cases, the large purchasers are using the engineering firms who
are designing the large projects, so there is an overlap. The result is that 40
companies and projects will account for scrubber purchases of $300 million.
Large prospects, OEMs and large projects comprise a big share of the market. It
varies by industry. In the oil and gas industry, the large purchasers account
for 50 percent of the market. The large OEMs are addressing 30 percent. The
large projects also address 30 percent. There is overlap with some large
projects also involving large OEMs and large purchasers. The result is that the
combination addresses an adjusted 60 percent of the total. By contrast, pulp and
paper is 40 percent.
It is recommended that scrubber suppliers create specific programs to address
this combination of companies and projects. The relatively small number of large
opportunities makes a proactive approach possible. McIlvaine has created a
unique route to market by combining the detailed forecasting in N008 Scrubber/Adsorber/Biofilter
World Markets with McIlvaine project tracking services.
For more information on contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com