January 2017 - Pump Insights 73

The market for industrial pumps in the U.S. is likely to be greater over the next few years with Trump as president than it would have been had Clinton been elected. In the weeks since the election, the stock markets are up and corporations are more optimistic about the near-term business outlook. The longer-term outlook is less certain as is the impact on world markets.

The impact on the U.S. power industry will be positive with pump sales in 2018 rising as much as 8 percent due to Trump policies. Oil and gas will also be positively affected. The Keystone pipeline project will very likely now be built and other gas and oil projects will move through the regulatory maze more easily. The promised infrastructure program could boost pump sales to municipal water and wastewater plants.

U.S. Pump Revenues $ Millions
Industry	2018	Trump Impact %
Total	11,618	-1 to +3
Oil & Gas	4,834	0 to +2
Power	367	+1 to +8
Refining	475	0 to +1
Wastewater	1,978	0 to + 1
Water	889	0 to + 1

Trump has vowed to bring back the coal industry, allow oil and gas development on federal lands, “cancel” the international Paris climate accord, scrap Obama’s Clean Power Plan and eliminate tax incentives for wind and solar power generation. He plans to slash the budget for the Environmental Protection Agency and a new Supreme Court justice is likely to favor limits on EPA’s authority. The Department of Energy’s budget is also expected to be cut, along with a corresponding decline in funding for clean energy research and development.

· No new coal-fired power plants will be built but life extension programs will require significant numbers of valves

One trillion dollars would be allocated to an infrastructure program which would triple funding for state revolving loan fund programs to help states and local governments upgrade municipal water and wastewater plants. These plants have already allocated $75 billion/yr. over the next eight years for capital improvements. Federal funding for water utilities has fallen to $4.3 billion in 2014 from $16 billion in 1976. This has passed the burden onto states, municipalities and ultimately ratepayers. The new source of federal funding will result in larger capital expenditures of as much as $10 billion/yr.

Connecting Things, People, Intelligence, Niche Experts and Wise Crowds for Power Industry Decisions

GE, Emerson, Siemens and many other companies are creating software to connect things. There is a large potential for this in power generation. This potential was reflected in a number of papers and displays at the recent PowerGen Asia exhibition.

“We believe the success of our power generation customers will be more and more supported by the intelligent use of data generated by ever increasing connectivity of devices. The integration of those data with people expertise and knowledge will create additional services in a cycle delivering unprecedented knowledge of the behavior and potential of their assets,” said Marco Sanguineti, Head of Technology for ABB’s Power Generation business unit.

McIlvaine recently conducted nine hours of webinars focused on a problem for one utility. Presentations by Siemens, GE and Emerson addressed the optimization route to a lowest total cost of ownership (TCO) solution but the participants (wise crowd) concluded that incorporating innovative new technologies and components would be equally important in a system which would provide the lowest TCO.

Companies such as ABB are integrating the data from many thousands of sensors which are monitoring thousands of pumps, valves, mixers, fans, compressors, burners, conveyors, filters, etc. In a large utility with multiple plants, there are hundreds of individuals with specialized knowledge that may be valuable in a specific lowest TCO determination. As a result, there are likely to be many thousands of people who can contribute to the decision-making process. How do you take advantage of all this niche expertise?

Jeff Immelt of GE observed that the power industry needs to adopt the “hurry up” attitude of Silicon Valley in developing new technology. McIlvaine believes that this “hurry up” mode can best be achieved by decision systems which interconnect machines with people, intelligent databases and systems, niche experts and wise crowds. Systems have been created which provide the four knowledge needs: Alerts, Answers, Analysis and Advancement. The newest addition has been to supplement periodic webinars with very focused LinkedIn discussion groups. These groups facilitate “wise crowd” decisions by addressing all the criteria needed for a “wise crowd” to function properly.

Criteria	Description	LinkedIn role
Diversity of Opinion	Each person should have private information.	Small LinkedIn discussion groups lend themselves to extracting the niche expertise and unique ideas.
Independence	People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.	The small LinkedIn discussion groups are not subject to the peer pressure of the large webinars. McIlvaine editors then integrate the conclusions reached in the discussion groups.
Decentralization	People can specialize and draw on local knowledge.	The small LinkedIn discussion group is the ideal way to extract the local knowledge and benefit from niche expert participation.
Aggregation	Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.	The LinkedIn discussion groups are a bridge between analyses and webinars which result in the collective decisions.

The LinkedIn discussion groups are an important part of the entire interconnection system between:

· The final interconnection between all the many individuals in each of the above

Supplier knowledge can be transmitted through individuals who are encouraged by management to focus on becoming more expert. These individuals will be “rainmakers.” If they demonstrate that their company has the knowledge and the products to provide the lowest TCO, they can be very effective in boosting sales.

The same is true of consulting companies. However, the challenge will be to offer just enough expertise to achieve the rainmaking without reducing the potential actual consulting revenues.

· NRG Completes Four Coal to Gas Projects and Continues Fleet Optimization Strategy

· MICHIGAN: EthosEnergy awarded Seven-Year Contract for Operations Maintenance Services by Rockland Capital

· NEW YORK: Siemens to supply Additional Aero-Derivative Gas Turbines to help Power New York City

· PENNSYLVANIA: Ameresco and PIDC Partner on an Innovative Project at the Navy Yard in Philadelphia

· CHINA: MHPS Wins Order to Provide Gas Turbine Preventive Detection Services in China

· U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: APR Energy Awarded LPG-Fired Project in U.S. Virgin Islands

· Sulzer to Acquire Control of Rotec's Gas Turbine Service Business Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Unveils Revolutionary JAC Gas Turbine

· Gas Turbine Owners Will Spend $313 Billion for Equipment, Repairs and Service Next Year

These headlines are from the bi weekly Alert series which is part of a complete program to identify the markets and track all the projects. The details are shown at 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program

Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis

· Washington State has blocked Plans for the Nation’s biggest Coal Export Terminal

· EPA analysis shows Wet FGD is most Cost-effective Route to meet Federal Implementation Plan

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features. .

44I: Coal Fired Power Plant Decisions $1600.00/year (Additional Users $120.00/year) Click Here to Order

This service provides a connection for suppliers and coal-fired power plant operators around the world. It is free of charge to any coal-fired utility employee. It is designed to help owners make lowest cost of ownership decisions. The service covers combustion systems and components, flow control and treatment and air, water and solid waste pollution control. It addresses the four knowledge needs: Alerts, Answers, Analysis, Advancement.

Alerts: Six alerts and newsletters are included. The latest entries in the intelligence system are easily accessed. Daily entries in LinkedIn discussion groups are also available.

Answers: The intelligence system includes case histories, product information, regulatory analyses and all the past newsletters dating back to 1999 (over 1000 newsletters). Hundreds of hours of recorded webinars provide graphic as well as text answers.

Analysis: Upcoming webinars, the newsletters, white papers in the intelligence systems and detailed discussions in the LinkedIn groups provide analytical data. Focus on seeking the lowest total cost of ownership is one of the most valuable aspects of the service.

Advancement: The extensive webinar library and intelligence system provide the material for tailored training programs. If fills the needs of the trainee but also senior people who just want to keep up with the latest developments.