The New Approach to Market Forecasting For Flow Control and Treatment Products
Traditional forecasting of markets for air, gas, water and liquid flow control
and treatment products has been the top down approach. The total market is
determined and then segmented by industry, product and location. There are two
problems with this approach:
·
The numbers are not reliable
·
There is not the granularity needed to set quotas and promotional expenditures
The bottom-up approach is far better. The problem is that it
is necessary to determine the quantities in as many as 50,000 niches.
Prior to the digital age this was prohibitively expensive. Today it is a money
saver. The granularity offers the potential to make a decision about selling an
on/off ball valve to the pharmaceutical industry in Germany as follows.
Question |
Answer |
What is the valve growth
projection for Germany?
|
Valve growth over the next five
years will be $140 million from
present $1.9 billion. |
The biggest potential for the
new valve is pharmaceutical.
How big is this market?
|
Will grow by $4 million to $61
million/yr by 2019. |
The product is a globe valve, so
how big is this segment? |
German pharmaceutical globe
market will grow by $1
million/yr to $15 million in
2019. |
It will primarily be used for
on/off and not control, so how
big is this segment? |
On/Off market will grow to $13
million by 2019.
|
The new valve is used mostly in
processing and not water, so how
big is this segment?
|
Processing segment is 60 percent
for a 2019 market of $7.8
million. |
What will be the sales for new
plants?
|
Only 30 percent or $2.3 million.
|
The new product should capture
15 percent share. |
Target is $345.000/yr by 2019. |
Should capture 5 percent of the
replacement market which is 70
percent. |
Target is 70 percent of 7.8
million x 5 percent=$273,000 for
a total annual sales of
$618,000. |
These detailed forecasts provide the unique opportunity to validate the accuracy
of the forecasts for the total market. Who better than the local salesman
to evaluate the forecast for his products and its reliability.
McIlvaine has this level of granularity in:
N064
Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market
N029
Ultrapure Water: World Market
N028
Industrial Valves: World Market
241I
Nuclear Power Plant Valve Forecast and Analysis
N026 Water
and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals: World Market
N031 Air and
Water Monitoring: World Market
N024
Cartridge Filters: World Market
N006 Liquid
Filtration and Media World Markets
N005
Sedimentation and Centrifugation World Markets
Cleanroom Hardware Sales to Exceed $4.6 Billion Next Year
Sales of hardware for cleanrooms will exceed $4.6 billion next year. Over 60
percent of this spending will be in East Asia. This is the latest forecast
in
World Cleanroom Markets
published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Cleanroom Hardware Sales ($ Million)
World Region |
2015 |
Total |
4,635 |
Africa |
35
|
CIS |
46
|
East Asia |
2,780
|
Eastern Europe |
33
|
Middle East |
76
|
NAFTA |
877
|
South & Central America |
88
|
West Asia |
95
|
Western Europe |
605
|
The semiconductor and flat panel displays will account for just under 25 percent
of the total. The semiconductor industry is booming. The
Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide sales of
semiconductors reached $87 billion during the third quarter of 2014, an increase
of 5.7 percent over the previous quarter and a jump of 8 percent compared to the
third quarter of 2013.
China is increasing spending due to smart phone sales and infrastructure
buildup. Smart wearable devices, cloud computing and smart cars are likely
to contribute to a record semiconductor expenditure on cleanroom hardware in
2015.
Five foundries are going to be able to offer high-volume leading-edge foundry
production over the next five years (TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, Samsung and
Intel). Samsung recently announced plans to build a $14.7 billion wafer
fab in Pyeongtaek, a city south of Seoul. The new fab is slated to begin
production in the second half of 2017.
The market is being driven by the need to upgrade and replace older facilities
with new ones which can make chips with smaller line sizes and more memory per
chip. As the line size decreases, the damage done by a particle of a given size
increases. There is, therefore, a continuing need for cleaner space.
For more information on
World Cleanroom Markets,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/474-n6f-world-cleanroom-markets
Headlines for Utility E-Alert – November 21, 2014
UTILITY E-ALERT
Table of Contents
COAL – US
COAL – WORLD
GAS/OIL – US
GAS/OIL – WORLD
NUCLEAR
BUSINESS
HOT TOPIC HOUR
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine
hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control
subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either
Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking System. The
cost is $300.00
for non-subscribers.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input
relative to suggested additions.
December |
||
18 |
Boiler Feedwater Treatment |
Click here for the
Subscriber and
Power Plant
Owner/Operator
Registration Form
Click here for the
Non-Subscribers
Registration Form
Click here for the Free
Hot Topic Hour Registration
Form
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com