Revised Pump and Valve Forecasts to Be Reviewed in Two Webinars
The markets for valves and pumps are being continually impacted by changing oil
prices, the Chinese slowdown, Iranian politics and technology changes such as
the lower hydraulic fracturing prices and improvements in coal to syngas.
McIlvaine is revising all pump and valve forecasts quarterly and will review
these changes in webinars explaining which factors were used in the new
forecasts and what uncertainties remain.
These 40-minute webinars will display the forecasts by region and industry and
provide a summary of the 50,000 forecasts in the full reports. The webinars are
free to subscribers to the reports (N019 Pumps World Market or N028 Industrial
Valves: World Market). The cost to non-subscribers is $700 but the cost is
deductible from purchase of the report.
The Valve Market Forecast Changes webinar will be held on September 11 at 10:00
a.m. Central time. More information
The Pump Forecast Changes webinar will be held on September 25 at 10 a.m.
Central time. More information
Power Plant Pumps Decision Guide Webinar Slated For September 10
A webinar on September 10 at 10:00 a.m. Central time will cover the options and
issues regarding selection of fossil-fired power plant pumps. There is a very
ambitious goal to provide a website with the most comprehensive information on
power plant pumps. This is part of a whole knowledge system to provide Alerts,
Answers, Analysis, and Advancement in every aspect of power. Owners and
operators around the world have free access to 44I Power Plant Air Quality
Decisions (Power Plant Decisions Orchard) and 59D Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle
Decisions. The Power Plant Pumps Decision Guide is one of the subsidiary
websites in both these knowledge systems.
This webinar will be focused on creating a Power Plant Pump Route Map and
Summary which will help decision makers navigate the website. The first inputs
to this Route Map are displayed at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/images/Pumps_Route_Map_Sept_10.pdf
There is still time for vendors to submit one or two slides for the display
deck. We intend to discuss issues during the session but due to the 90-minute
limit, most of the time will be just spent on determining which types of pumps
are best suited for specific applications.
The website already exists but there is conflicting information. For example,
the introduction of ceramic impellers for FGD slurries needs to be more closely
examined. These more detailed subjects will be pursued with continuing
correspondence and future webinars.
If you want participate in the discussion and are an owner/operator or
subscriber to 44I, 59D, or N019 Pumps World Market, there is no cost for
participating in the actual discussion. Otherwise there is a $300 participation
fee. For more information on supplying data or participating, contact Bob
McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com, 847-784-0012 ext. 112.
Click here to register:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-uncategorised/976-webinar-registration
Oil Prices to Impact Pump Markets over the Next Four Years
The pump industry will grow by 17 percent from 2015 to 2019 at oil prices of
$80/barrel during the period. At $40/barrel, the growth will only be 3 percent.
These are the latest forecasts in Pumps World Markets published by the McIlvaine
Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
There are a number of variables which will determine the market growth for
pumps. New insights are continually generated which justify changes in the
forecasts. The Iran nuclear agreement is just one example. The plunging economy
in China is another. However, the most significant development recently is the
plunge in oil prices to $40/barrel.
The industrial pump market is dominated by oil and gas which represents 24
percent of the present market. However water and wastewater, power, refining,
petrochemical and other industries account for 76 percent of the market. The
impact of future oil prices on the market can be best predicted by estimating
the impact on the individual segments.
Oil and gas can be divided into two segments. The aftermarket and routine
purchases for small projects represent two-thirds of the total or 16 percent of
the present total pump market. The longer term large project revenues represent
only 8 percent of the current market. If the price of oil were to continue to
remain at $40/barrel through 2019, revenues in this segment would shrink over
the period.
At $40/barrel oil the long range pump product revenue from the oil and gas large
project segment would shrink by 75 percent from 8 percent of the current market
in 2015 to an amount in 2019 which is equivalent to 2 percent of the 2015
market. On the other hand, the oil and gas aftermarket and market for small
projects would remain flat during the four year period. In fact, the market for
pumps for pipelines will be positively impacted as low cost oil and gas needs to
be moved to more places.
The petrochemical market will grow faster at $40 oil. Municipal water and
wastewater will be unaffected by the fluctuation in oil prices. Lower prices
will result in more gasoline being consumed and more oil being refined. The
power market will be impacted by greater use of gas turbine combined cycle power
plants but total revenues for pumps in the power market will not be impacted
greatly by fluctuating oil prices.
McIlvaine will continue to assess the likely changes in oil prices based on the
following factors:
• The break-even cost for a new well
o Hydraulic fracturing break-even point is $30 to $50/barrel equivalent based on
improved management practices and the extraction of more product from existing
wells.
o Oil and tar sands projects break even at $65/barrel.
o Subsea is more expensive.
• New technology developments
o Bechtel experience with coal seam gas to LNG in Australia indicates lower
break- even costs than subsea extraction.
o China coal to syngas and chemicals could be an alternative which is more than
competitive at $40 oil. McIlvaine has recommended marrying the two stage (HCl/SO2)
scrubbing along with conventional hydrochloric acid leaching to extract rare
earths and generate byproduct revenue.
• Demand
o The slowdown in China could impact demand as could economic problems in Greece
and other countries.
o Demand is a function of industrial activity. There is little equipment needed
to extract Saudi oil. On the other hand, over 2,000 companies rely on the
Alberta oil sands market for their revenues. The greater the industrial activity
the greater the oil demand.
• Supply
o Saudi Arabia could choose to restrict production. In many ways the situation
is analogous to the gold in Ft. Knox. You could sell it at any price and
generate positive cash flow. However it is a precious and finite resource which
is important to future generations.
o Market driven companies will typically be reactive rather than proactive and
will only increase drilling after oil prices rise to a level to make drilling
profitable.
• Political developments
o Lifting the Iran embargo on oil exports.
o Russian activities in the Ukraine and elsewhere.
o Chinese efforts to manage the economy.
o Uncertainties in North Korea, Greece and Venezuela.
• Regulatory initiatives
o Export restrictions.
o Climate change regulations.
o Pollution control requirements for hydraulic fracturing.
• Traumatic events
o Major oil spills.
o Large meteorite impact, earthquake or major volcano eruption.
Some of these developments are more predictable than others. The low oil prices
leads to lower extraction activity which eventually leads to shortages and
higher prices. On the other hand, wars, oil spills and earthquakes cannot be
easily predicted. As a result there will be the need for continuous changes in
the forecasts to take into account the surprises.
Pumps World Markets, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article?id=75
Oil Prices to Impact Valve Markets over the Next Four Years
The market for industrial valves will grow by 16 percent from 2015 to 2019 at
oil prices of $80/barrel during the period. At $40/barrel, the growth will only
be 9 percent. These are the latest forecasts in N028 Industrial Valves: World
Market published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
There are a number of variables which will determine the market growth for
valves. New insights are continually generated which justify changes in the
forecasts. The Iran nuclear agreement is just one example. The plunging economy
in China is another. However, the most significant development recently is the
plunge in oil prices to $40/barrel.
The industrial valve market is led by oil and gas which represents 15 percent of
the present market. However water and wastewater, power, refining, petrochemical
and other industries account for 85 percent of the market. The impact of future
oil prices on the market can be best predicted by estimating the impact on the
individual segments.
Oil and gas can be divided into two segments. The aftermarket and routine
purchases for small projects represent two-thirds of the total or 10 percent of
the present total pump market. The longer term large project revenues represent
only 5 percent of the current market. If the price of oil were to continue to
remain at $40/barrel through 2019, revenues in this segment would shrink over
the period.
The chart shows percentages of the present 2015 market for the year 2019. At
$40/barrel oil the long range valve product revenue from the oil and gas large
project segment would shrink by 60 percent from 5 percent of the current market
in 2015 to an amount in 2019 which is equivalent to 2 percent of the 2015
market. On the other hand, the oil and gas aftermarket and market for small
projects would grow slightly during the four year period. In fact, the market
for pipeline valves will be positively impacted as low cost oil and gas needs to
be moved to more places.
The petrochemical market will grow faster at $40 oil. Municipal water and
wastewater will be unaffected by the fluctuation in oil prices. Lower prices
will result in more gasoline being consumed and more oil being refined. The
power market will be impacted by greater use of gas turbine combined cycle power
plants but total revenues for valves in the power industry will not be impacted
greatly by fluctuating oil prices.
McIlvaine will continue to assess the likely changes in oil prices based on the
following factors:
• The break-even cost for a new well
o Hydraulic fracturing break-even point is $30 to $50/barrel equivalent based on
improved management practices and the extraction of more product from existing
wells.
o Oil and tar sands projects break even at $65/barrel.
o Subsea is more expensive.
• New technology developments
o Bechtel experience with coal seam gas to LNG in Australia indicates lower
break- even costs than subsea extraction.
o China coal to syngas and chemicals could be an alternative which is more than
competitive at $40 oil. McIlvaine has recommended marrying the two stage (HCl/SO2)
scrubbing along with conventional hydrochloric acid leaching to extract rare
earths and generate byproduct revenue.
• Demand
o The slowdown in China could impact demand as could economic problems in Greece
and other countries.
o Demand is a function of industrial activity. There is little equipment needed
to extract Saudi oil. On the other hand, over 2,000 companies rely on the
Alberta oil sands market for their revenues. The greater the industrial activity
the greater the oil demand.
• Supply
o Saudi Arabia could choose to restrict production. In many ways the situation
is analogous to the gold in Ft. Knox. You could sell it at any price and
generate positive cash flow. However, it is a precious and finite resource which
is important to future generations.
o Market driven companies will typically be reactive rather than proactive and
will only increase drilling after oil prices rise to a level to make drilling
profitable.
• Political developments
o Lifting the Iran embargo on oil exports.
o Russian activities in the Ukraine and elsewhere.
o Chinese efforts to manage the economy.
o Uncertainties in North Korea, Greece and Venezuela.
• Regulatory initiatives
o Export restrictions.
o Climate change regulations.
o Pollution control requirements for hydraulic fracturing.
• Traumatic events
o Major oil spills.
o Large meteorite impact, earthquake or major volcano eruption.
Some of these developments are more predictable than others. The low oil prices
lead to lower extraction activity which eventually leads to shortages and higher
prices. On the other hand, wars, oil spills and earthquakes cannot be easily
predicted. As a result, there will be the need for continuous changes in the
forecasts to take into account the surprises.
For more information on N028 Industrial Valves: World Market, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/115-n028
Headlines for Utility E-Alert – August 21, 2015
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1237– August 21, 2015
Table of Contents
COAL – US
Ameren Missouri says Coal to remain Large Part of Power Generation Mix
COAL – WORLD
Sindh Engro says Coal-fired Power Generation to start by 2018
Longannet in Fife Coal-fired Power Plant to close March of 2016
Prophecy provides Updates on its Chandgana Coal-fired Power Plant and Ulaan
Ovoo Mining Project in Mongolia
TEPCO moving forward with 2 x 500 MW IGCC Facilities in Fukishima Prefecture
ECUST-ICCT provides Gasification Technology and is actively developing Novel
Technologies
GAS/OIL – US
Rockland prepares for negotiations on $200 Million Natural Gas Project
Connecticut DEEP schedules Hearing to approve Air Permits for CPV Towantic
Energy
By 2030 56 Percent of Vietnamese Electrical Capacity will be Coal
GAS/OIL – WORLD
KPA Unicon to deliver a Power Boiler to South African Steel Mill
NUCLEAR
Watts Bar Unit 2 is Substantially Complete; TVA Requests Issuance of License
BWXT Subsidiary awarded Design and Manufacturing Contracts for HPR1000 Nuclear
Power Plant in Guangxi, China
Approval by Georgia Public Service Commission of $169 Million Capital and
Construction Costs submitted as part of 12th Vogtle Construction Monitoring
Report
Finnish Firm contracted for Hanhikivi Nuclear Project
BUSINESS
Engie plans over $1 Billion Sale of Asian Coal-fired Power Plants
Eagle Mountain signs Strategic Participation Agreement
Fuel Tech awarded Air Pollution Control Orders Totaling $7.7 Million
NOx Control Market leveling off but at a High Level
Investment in Coal-Fired Power Plants will exceed Other Energy Sectors in 2016
HOT TOPIC HOUR
Total Solutions Hot Topic Hour (August 20) confirms the Trend toward Greater
Outsourcing
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours and Recordings
McIlvaine webinars offer the opportunity to view the latest presentations and
join discussions while sitting at your desk. Hot Topic Hours cater to the end
users as well as suppliers while the Market Updates cater to the suppliers and
investors. Since McIlvaine records and provides streaming media access to these
webinars there is a treasure trove of value only a click away. McIlvaine
webinars are free to certain McIlvaine service subscribers. There is a charge
for others. Hot Topic Hours are free to owner/operators. Sponsored webinars
provide insights to particular products and services. They are free. Recordings
can be immediately viewed from the list provided below.
DATE UPCOMING HOT TOPIC HOUR UPCOMING MARKET UPDATES
Sept. 10, 2015
Power Plant Pumps
A decision guide for pump selection for intake,
cooling, ultrapure water, steam and wastewater from coal
and gas turbine power plants. More information
Sept. 11, 2015
Valve Market Forecast Changes
The oil prices and Chinese economy will be two of the drivers evaluated as the
basis for adjustments in the 2016-21 forecasts for industrial valves.
More information
Sept. 24, 2015
Power Plant Water Monitoring
A decision guide for selection of monitoring equipment for
intake water, cooling, ultrapure water steam and wastewater
form coal and gas turbine power plants. More information
Sept. 25, 2015
Pump Market Forecast Changes
The oil prices and Chinese economy will be two of the drivers evaluated as the
basis for adjustments in the 2016-21 forecasts for pumps. More information
October 1, 2015
Power Plant Water Treatment Chemicals
A decision guide for selection of chemicals to treat intake
water, cooling, ultrapure water steam and wastewater form
coal and gas turbine power plants. More information
October 2, 2015
Fabric Filter Market Forecast Changes
New technology such as ceramic catalytic filter elements, the Chinese economic
slowdown, oil prices and other factors will be explained in terms of their
impact on the 2015-21 market for fabric filters, bags, media, and fibers.
More information
October 22, 2015
Precipitator Improvements
Decision guide to dry, hybrid and wet electrostatic
precipitators for solid fuel combustion, refining and other
industries. Focus will be on improvements to the electricals
and components. More information
November 12, 2015
Dry Scrubbing
Expansion of the dry scrubber decision guide for power plants,
incinerators, and other applications involving SDA, CFB, and
DSI. More information
December 3, 2015
NOx Reduction
Decision guide to selection of SCR and SCR systems,
ammonia injection, reagents, catalysts for power plants
refineries, incinerators, chemical plants and other applications.
More information
Click here to register:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-uncategorised/976-webinar-registration
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com