WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
• Briefs
• The Power of Innovation for Suppliers of Combust, Flow and Treat Products
• Advanced Forecasting for Greater Sales and Profits
Briefs
Coal Fired Power Plants Webinar April 25: Join us at 10:AM CDT to discuss the
markets for new plants around the world but also for replacement and upgrades at
existing plants. To register click on Free Market Webinars
Pump and Fugitive Emissions Summit: McIlvaine is on the steering committee and
working with KCI to help make this conference and exhibition June 26 and 27 as
useful to attendees as the one two years ago. We are also working with the
management (KCI) to provide come continuity between the U.S. Show, the Chinese
Show, and articles in Valve World Americas, Valve World, Pump Engineer,
Stainless Steel World, and Hose and Couplings magazines.
One of the continuity streams will be on common versus better options. All the
speakers and exhibitors are being asked to provide one such example.
Here are entries we have received so far:
Person Affiliation Option Description
Richard Bierman Chevron Phillips Common Analysis based on overall vibration
Better The use of trend based narrow ban envelope alarming
Jeff Ronseneder
Trey Gorfe Emerson Common Non-resilient stem packing for ball valves
Better Resilient stem packing for ball valves to prevent fugitive emissions
Buddy Broerman Southwest
Research Institute Common Pump vendor sizes dampener as a guestimate when
installing plunger pumps
Better Take advantage of an upfront pulsation/vibration analysis to avoid
vibration issues and piping rework costs.
Ned Davis Maui Innovation
Group Common Employ low emissions valve packing
Better Hermetically seal valve enclosure and actuate valve with a magnetic
coupling ensuring zero emissions over the entire life of the valve
Jean-Marc Fosseux TechnipFMC Common Use of conventional pump sealing systems for
hazardous product (dual mechanical seals + auxiliaries)
Better Use of seal-less pumps when possible
If you are an exhibitor or speaker at the Summit and would like to submit a
common and better option, or if you have comments about any of the options
displayed by others just communicate them to Bob McIlvaine at 847-784-0012 ext.
112 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
To learn more about the conference click on
https://fugitive-emissions-summit.com/
The Power of Innovation for Suppliers of Combust, Flow and Treat Products
There is a sea change in the route to market for suppliers of combust, flow and
treat products. It is being caused by the adoption of digital technologies.
Suppliers have to navigate a course every bit as challenging as did Eastman
Kodak. The monumental failure of this company was to underestimate the power of
innovation and overestimate the power of positioning in a non-digital market.
The result was a company which was best able to achieve what Apple has
accomplished and instead stifled R&D and tried to delay or prevent the
transition to digital cameras.
Suppliers of Combust, Flow and Treat (CFT) products can harness the power of
innovation only if they understand customer needs in every niche where there is
potential. There is voluminous data already available to facilitate this
understanding. With process management software and data analytics the
availability of useful data will expand by orders of magnitude. The individual
supplier is already overwhelmed by this avalanche of information. However, just
as IIoT connects things in vastly large numbers the Industrial Internet of
Wisdom (IIoW) can connect knowledge and people and harness the power of the
avalanche rather than be buried by it.
Innovation will potentially generate large revenues and profits as per the Apple
example. It starts with understanding customer needs. This is prohibitively
expensive for any one company. Companies such as Primex and MOGAS have found
ways to share this cost using the Wikinomics concept. Many companies support
Users Groups. However, harnessing the power of the avalanche is going to require
even more interconnection in the new digital world.
Ultimately there should be interconnection addressing all segments with
potential power in the avalanche. Organized decision systems around industries,
processes and products should exist in millions of niches. Google and other
search engines employ large numbers of people. However, IIoW will need to employ
even more to keep up with the avalanche in an organized and decisive way.
Who should spearhead this activity: governments, consultants, associations or
suppliers? The group with the most to gain are the suppliers and there is a
strong case to be made as to why they should lead rather than follow. The
McIlvaine Company believes its primary role should be as a consultant rather
than leader even though it has developed Decision Systems such as Coal Fired
Boilers. McIlvaine can aid suppliers. This assistance comes as part of a 5-step
program
THE FIVE STEP BUSINESS PROGRAM is the navigation tool and the Lowest Total Cost
of Ownership Validation (LTCOV) is the ship most likely to insure a successful
voyage. Innovation is the fuel to maximize the speed and quantity delivered. The
foundation of successful innovation is the Industrial Internet of Wisdom (IIoW)
With IIoT, remote monitoring and data analytics, the customer will possess
continuing total cost of ownership analyses of each product. To persuade the
customer to buy more of his product the supplier will need to deliver insights
which are superior to those already in his possession. Persuading the customer
to buy a new product requires the supplier to demonstrate greatly superior
knowledge. The advantage of the new environment is that the customer is much
more receptive to products which will provide LTCO.
In order for the supplier to create the LTCOV for a specific product in a
specific process he will first need
• Information about the plant process
• Performances of competitive products in that process
• Relevant general factors such as cost of electricity, weather and geography.
• Relevant customer factors such as production cycles, financial criteria and
personnel capabilities
If the supplier has a product which is proven in a similar process, then it is
valuable to establish the similarities and differences between the two
processes. This is particularly relevant if
• This is a new product and only used to date in the other process
• The severity and criticality of the other process is similar to the given
process.
INNOVATION: Innovation will be more important in the new market environment. The
reason is that customers have the process management systems and data analytics
to analyze the new product potential. They already will have documented the
short comings of existing products and processes.
This new and better innovation must be validated for each application. This
requires a high level of process and product knowledge to first develop the
product and then to communicate that knowledge convincingly.
EXAMPLES: Here is the way some companies are gaining and communicating this
knowledge.
PRIMEX: This company has been involved with dry scrubbing systems for coal fired
boilers for decades. They helped create the Dry Scrubbers Users Group (DSUA) and
are very active in the annual conference. They consult for several NAES power
plants and have access to the continuous process management data supplied by the
OSIsoft systems.
They are analyzing the performance of all the components. Because of their
extensive experience they have recommended changes which have greatly improved
operations.
The bag design was causing some problems. Primex patented a modification and
then licensed this patent to the bag manufacturers. At the latest conference,
there was a good sharing of information among suppliers and users relative to
the control valve washing protocol. Primex will be able to incorporate this
knowledge into their advisory service.
McIlvaine has proposed to the DSUA and to Primex that the McIlvaine Dry Scrubber
Decision Guide be used to create an ongoing decision system on dry scrubber
components and processes. This would provide currency and organization to the
overall effort and provide the four knowledge needs: Alerts, Answers, Analysis
and Advancement.
MOGAS: This valve manufacturer and severe service technology company organizes a
biennial conference on autoclaves for extraction of metals from ores. Ekato, an
agitator supplier, Koch-Knight who furnishes autoclave components, NobelClad, a
supplier of explosively clad alloys, and Caldera, a consultant specializing in
extraction are co-sponsors.
MOGAS has captured a large share of the severe service valve market for these
applications. Their process knowledge and innovative engineering philosophy have
resulted in special valve designs with unique coatings to reduce corrosion and
erosion.
There are similar applications with larger markets. One is tight oil including
oil sands and shale. Another is the power plant FGD where Ekato is the leading
supplier of agitators. Scaling is a problem in both applications. Improved valve
and agitator designs for one market can be applied to others.
The bi annual autoclave conference has spurred innovation. Wouldn't on going
decision systems on this subject be a logical next step forward? Application
oriented decision systems can be supplemented by product-oriented systems such
as valve decisions for severe service slurry valves: or "agitators for abrasive
and corrosive applications".
HRSGS USERS GROUP: The organizers of this bi annual conference and McIlvaine are
ready to help suppliers organize decision systems around HRSG products. There is
already a good start with a decision guide on HRSG valves. The next step is to
identify suppliers willing to support this effort.
The sea change in the CFT markets will require major adjustments by the
suppliers. Those who follow the Apple rather than Eastman Kodak example will be
able to navigate the route to maximum ROI and profits. Details on the 5-step
business program are provided at www.mcilvainecompany.com
Advanced Forecasting for Greater Sales and Profits
Advanced forecasting of combust, flow and treat products can be obtained for
each plant and each corporation based on plant capacity. The investment for new
products, replacement products and repairs can all be related to projected and
existing capacity. The power industry forecasts start with the capacity of each
generator. Municipal wastewater forecasts can be determined based on the MGD of
primary and secondary treatment. The same approach can be used for refineries.
Pulp and paper forecasts can be achieved with tons/yr of pulp. Mining is more of
a challenge because purchases vary with each type of ore. The industry which is
most challenging is the chemical/fertilizer industry. There are many different
products requiring many different processes. This necessitates forecasting
production of each chemical and then grouping these chemicals by common
requirements. For example, TDI, Cl, and MOP/DAP all include processes with
highly corrosive fluids. The forecasts for corrosion resistant products for each
plant can be determined based on the production or usage of corrosive chemicals
at each plant. Here is an example tabulation for Chlorine.
France - 2017 Chlorine Production - kT/yr
Company Location Production
PPChemicals Thann 43
Vencorex Pont de Claix 170
Kem One Fos 340
Arkema Jarrie 72
Kem One Lavera 363
Arkema St. Auban 20
MSSA Pomblière 42
PC Harbonnières Harbonnières 23
Inovyn Tavaux 360
PC Loos Loos 18
Total 1451
The same procedure can then be repeated for other corrosive chemicals and
forecasts made for each CFT product. McIlvaine routinely forecasts purchases for
the top 30 chemical companies. However, many of the top purchasers of corrosion
resistant products are not in the top group for all CFT products. The challenge
is to segment the corrosion resistant purchases separately from the others. The
following companies are all significant purchasers of corrosion resistant
products.
CFT Purchases by Process and Revenue - 2018 Chemical Industry Example
TDI Cl MOP/
DAP # 2018
Rank Valves
$ mill Plastic Rubber Ceramic Thermal
Spray Other CFT products
Air Liquide 84 6 types of On/off Valves
6 types of Control Valves
4 types of Pumps
13 types of Treatment Chemicals
Stack gas Neutralizing Agents such as lime and sodium
4 types of Cartridges
6 types of Liquid Filtration equipment
5 types of Sedimentation /Centrifugation equipment
Cross-Flow RO, UF, MF membranes
4 types of Scrubbers, Adsorbers and Absorbers
2 types of Fans
6 types of Blowers and Compressors
Guide, Control, Measure for Liquids, Gases and Free Flowing Solids
Fabric Filters and Bags
Wet and Dry Precipitators
SCR, SNCR, Catalysts, Urea
Nozzles
Piping
Heat Exchangers
Combustors
ZLD systems
Ultrapure Water Systems
Stainless Steel plate
FRP Vessels and Piping
Thermal Coatings
Hose and Couplings
Drives and Motors
Dampers and Stacks
DuctworK
HVAC Filters
Agrium 10
Akzo Nobel x 80
Anwil
Aventis
BASF x x 2 311 Analysis with 150 slides
Braskem 69
Bayer
Belaruskali
Covestro x 65
CUF
Degussa
DOW-Dupont x x 1 339 Analysis with 100 slides
DSM
Ercos
Evonik 73
Exxon 7 137 Also separate oil/gas forecasts
Formosa x 5 142
FMC
Hanwha
ICL
Ineos
INOVYN
K&S
Kem One
LG Chem
Linde
Lyondell
Mosaic
Nirma
Mitsubishi
Occidental
OCP
Olin +
PCC Rokita
Potash Corp
PPG
Qinghai Salt
Runcorn
Sabic
Sinopec
Tosoh
Tata
Toray
Uhde
Uralkai
VESTOLIT
Vinnolit
Vynova
Xinjiang -
Shongtai
Yara
Yuntianhua
This group includes the top 20 chemical companies and the top companies in the
chlorine, TDI and MAP, DAP segments. Exxon is the seventh largest purchaser of
valves in the chemical industry (their oil, gas and refining purchases are
determined separately). However they are not a major player in production of the
three corrosive chemicals displayed in this chart.
Advanced Forecasting to determine the purchases of a specific product by a
specific company in the next year allows for a direct effort by the supplier
well in advance of the actual purchase. This effort can result in specifications
and decisions ahead of time which greatly improve the order potential. The cost
of this type of analysis is no longer prohibitive. For more information contact
Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com