Market Forecasts and Decision Guides on High Performance Pumps and Materials
under Construction
McIlvaine will be supplementing its decision guides on power plant pumps with
guides in other industries. Market forecasts are also now available for
high performance pumps and for the materials and coatings which are needed to
achieve the high performance. Here is the split for the chemical industry:
|
Chemical Industry Pump
Segmentation into High
Performance and other
|
|
|
% of Total Market
|
% High Performance
|
Other
|
|
Water intake
|
10
|
3
|
7
|
|
Combustion (boiler feedwater)
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
|
Cooling
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
|
Process
|
63
|
42
|
21
|
|
Wastewater
|
12
|
6
|
6
|
|
Total
|
100
|
56
|
44
|
For more information contact Bob McIlvaine 847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
International Strategy is Critical for Survival in the Flow Control and
Treatment Industries
Whether you sell pumps, valves, filters, fans, compressors, treatment chemicals,
scrubbers or centrifuges, you cannot focus on just the U.S., China, or EU
market. Here are some examples of major opportunities elsewhere:
|
Industry
|
Country
|
|
Aquaculture
|
Indonesia
|
|
Bauxite
|
Kazakhstan
|
|
Cement
|
Turkey
|
|
Coal-fired power
|
Vietnam
|
|
Coal mining
|
Columbia
|
|
Copper
|
Chile
|
|
Desalination
|
Israel
|
|
Flat Panels
|
South Korea
|
|
Gas Extraction
|
Nigeria
|
|
Iron Ore
|
Ukraine
|
|
LNG
|
Australia
|
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
India
|
|
Petrochemicals
|
Saudi Arabia
|
|
Phosphate
|
Morocco
|
|
Pulp/Paper
|
Brazil
|
|
Potash
|
Canada
|
|
Refineries
|
Algeria
|
|
Semiconductors
|
Taiwan
|
|
Steel
|
UAE
|
The U.S. has placed a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants but China will
build far more than the EU or that the U.S. will retire. Vietnam, Indonesia
and Myanmar are building power plants with a combined capacity of 150,000 MW.
China is the largest fish farming country, but Indonesia is also large. The
industry is moving to sophisticated recirculating systems with a big investment
in flow control and treatment equipment.
Australia, a leader in iron ore and coal mining, has become a recent player in
LNG with successful conversion of coal bed methane.
Individual projects can measurably impact the market in a given year. There are
nine large Canadian potash projects underway with a combined capital investment
of over $30 billion. The largest project will require a $4 billion investment.
Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach
has let a
series of contracts to Amec Foster Wheeler to provide front-end engineering and
design (FEED) for three grassroots refineries that will add a total of 15
million tons/year in refining capacity in the country. These few
projects represent a significant percentage of the yearly flow control and
treatment revenues for the worldwide industry.
Coal-fired projects in Indonesia could result in an investment of over $100
billion. Vietnam is vacillating on plans which would require a coal-fired power
plant investment of over $200 billion. Delay or cancellation of large projects
can materially affect the revenues of the flow control and treatment suppliers.
Flow control and treatment companies need to pursue the world market. There are
196 countries with more than 50 major industries who purchase flow control and
treatment equipment. Many of these countries are quite small. McIlvaine
forecasts divide the world into 80 purchasing entities which include 72 separate
countries and 8 country groups. The pump forecast example below shows pump sales
in Pakistan will be $216 million in 2021, but sales will only be $22 million in
a group of countries labeled “Other Western Europe.”
|
Industrial Pump 2021 Revenues
|
|
Country or Entity
|
Revenues
$ Billions
|
|
New Zealand
|
69.51
|
|
Nigeria
|
411.34
|
|
Norway
|
283.79
|
|
Other Africa
|
775.41
|
|
Other CIS
|
198.22
|
|
Other East Asia
|
89.62
|
|
Other Eastern Europe
|
108.45
|
|
Other Middle East
|
825.15
|
|
Other South & Central America
|
462.79
|
|
Other West Asia
|
14.15
|
|
Other Western Europe
|
21.90
|
|
Pakistan
|
216.54
|
|
Peru
|
165.93
|
|
Philippines
|
260.63
|
|
Poland
|
377.89
|
The countries aggregated in the Other Western Europe category are Andorra, Faroe
Islands, Gibraltar, Greenland, Guernsey, Iceland, Isle of Man, Jersey,
Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, San Marino and Vatican.
The average for the 80 entities in a $60 billion annual market is 0.75 percent.
While, as individual countries, many in the “other” category are insignificant,
as a group they are relevant. This is particularly true for the Other Africa
group which accounts for 0.75 percent of the total market and the Other Middle
East group which in the aggregate is bigger than the average.
McIlvaine has created a program to help international flow control and treatment
suppliers maximize the global opportunity. It is described at:
Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects
Bob McIlvaine is available to answer your questions and can be reached at
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
$14 Trillion to be spent on Power Plant Equipment and Repairs in the Next 25
Years
Electricity production will be up 100 percent by 2040. This will require an
investment of $14 trillion in new hardware and repair parts for existing
equipment and systems. Coal-fired generation will grow by 10 percent. One would,
therefore, expect that investment in coal-fired power generation would be less
than in other technologies. However, when you take into account repair and
upgrades, coal-fired power will require more in investment than any of the
alternatives.
World coal powered generation capacity is 2.2 million MW today and is slated to
rise by only 10 percent or only 200,000 MW during the next 25 years. The
investment needed to keep an old power plant running from age 50 to age 75 and
to be upgraded to the likely emission limits, will be nearly equal to the $2
million/MW cost of a new power plant over a 25 year period. This means that $4.4
trillion will need to be invested in coal-fired power. Much of that will be in
Asia where many new power plants will be built. Net capacity will drop in Europe
and the U.S. This does not mean that the two areas will not be spending money on
coal-fired power plants. The U.S. moratorium on new coal-fired power plants and
the necessity to maintain 200,000 MW of coal-fired capacity means that the U.S.
will have to spend $400 billion just to keep the old power plants running and
meet increasingly stringent environmental standards.
|
Power Plant Investment
2015-2040
|
|
Generator Type
|
$ Trillions
|
|
Coal-fired Power
|
4.4
|
|
Gas Turbine Combined Cycle
|
2.2
|
|
Nuclear
|
2.0
|
|
Biomass
|
0.6
|
|
Wind
|
2.3
|
|
Solar
|
2.8
|
|
Total
|
14.3
|
Nuclear capacity is slated to increase from 392 GW in 2013 to more than 620 GW
in 2040. But its share of global power generation will rise just one percentage
point to 12 percent, because almost 200 reactors of the 434 operational at the
end of 2013 will be retired, they will need to be offset by new power plants.
Total investment will exceed $2 trillion over the next 25 years.
The gas turbine combined cycle power generation market will grow by more than
300 GW to over 2 million GW by 2040. Replacements, upgrades and retirements all
result in a net capital investment of $2.2 trillion.
Biomass capacity will be 300 GW in 2040. Wind capacity will be 1300 GW and solar
1000 GW.
By 2040 Chinese energy production will be twice that of the U.S. but per capital
consumption will still be only half that of the U.S. The gas turbine market in
China will be bolstered by the Chinese coal-to-gas program which will deliver
gasified coal to turbine generators throughout the country.
India today is home to one-sixth of the world’s population and is its
third-largest economy, but accounts for only 6 percent of global energy. Demand
for coal in power generation and industry will surge increasing the share of
coal to almost half of the energy mix and making India the largest source of
growth in global coal use. By 2040, Asia is projected to account for 80 percent
of coal consumed globally. Coal will remain the backbone of the power system in
many countries.
Many components of coal and gas turbine generating plants need to be replaced
frequently. Catalyst for a coal-fired power plant is replaced every 3-5 years
and every 10 years for a gas turbine power plant. Boiler feedwater valves will
be replaced more frequently in a gas turbine power plant due to the constant
cycling and phenomena such as Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC). Slurry pumps,
ball mills, fans and air pre-heaters in coal-fired power plants are in periodic
need of replacement parts. Both coal and gas turbine operators are now more
likely to use zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems which are high maintenance
systems.
Coal-fired power plants are switching from electrostatic precipitators to fabric
filters. This results in biannual purchases of new bags. Gas turbine plants now
favor high efficiency inlet filters which are more expensive and need more
frequent replacement than the low efficiency alternative.
The power plant generation market was reviewed in a McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour on
April 7.
McIlvaine publishes market reports with detailed forecasts of the power market.
They include:
59EI Gas
Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
N043 Fossil
and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast
42EI Utility
Tracking System
Flow Control and Treatment Companies will benefit from a Digital Crystal Ball
The digital age has created the ability to make fortune telling a reality. The
real life version of a crystal ball is the wealth of information available to
predict markets, projects and identify decision makers. This information can be
used to change the way flow control and treatment products are marketed.
Long range purchasing plans can be determined by an organized analysis of
information which can be obtained directly from available documents or through
individuals who have specific insights.
|
Minutes of municipality meetings
documenting engineering study
authorization
|
Consultant reports advising
course of action for companies
under public scrutiny
|
Permit applications for
construction or upgrading
|
|
Submittals to the World Bank and
other lending institutions
|
|
Five Year Plans for China and
other countries
|
|
Recent and pending regulations
which will impact the market
|
LinkedIn, blogs and various
online groups with willing
volunteers of information
|
Google and other search engines
|
The local salesman can make a call on a municipal wastewater treatment plant but
would be unlikely to provide the same value gained from the directors meeting
minutes which outline the failure of the competitor’s equipment and his proposal
to fix it.
The power plant modification permit request which details the cost and
performance of various options provides the needed insights on product and
timing for a potential supplier.
One way suppliers take advantage of the availability of information is to
purchase sales leads. Typically the
company spends lots of money on these leads and not on market research.
In one sense, the leads are the market research.
In fact, published studies purport to link the number of sales leads to
the size of future markets.
This approach has a number of undesirable aspects:
1.
The large expenditure for sales leads draws funds away from critical market
research.
2.
Sales leads are not qualified. High
margins and order conversion result from picking and choosing projects.
3.
Since the sales lead is also being viewed by the competitors, there will be
pricing pressure and lower success rates.
4.
The timing of sales leads is often right if you are selling a commodity, but if
you are selling based on your product differentiation, you are too late.
5.
Many companies have distributors and representatives who are being paid to
uncover leads. Sales lead expense
is justified based on evaluating distributor performance rather than on boosting
sales.
If you are selling a commodity, product and price is the basis of success then
the sales lead route is probably still the best option. But, if you sell a
product based on lowest cost of ownership and not initial price, then you should
consider a whole new route using the digital crystal ball.
Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects
is your digital crystal ball because:
1.
Forecasts can be provided for the precise product at the State and province
level.
2.
Project alerts provide the time to convince the customer to consider total cost
of ownership and to issue bid specifications accordingly.
3.
The large end users, OEMs, and AEs are identified.
Since they purchase more than 50 percent of the flow control and
treatment equipment, the focus on them is critical.
4.
The opportunity to connect with the end user through white papers and webinars
improves the margin and success potential.
5.
The ability to demonstrate lowest cost of ownership is the secret to success in
the global market.
For more information on this program contact Bob McIlvaine 847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
Daily Project Posting in McIlvaine Oil, Gas, Refining Supplier Program
Oil/Gas/Shale/Refining E-Alert
March 2016 – No. 1
This alert is being issued twice per month for suppliers in flow control and
treatment who are coordinating market research with targeted pursuit of the
larger and longer term orders.
PROJECTS
The following projects each will result in millions of dollars of orders for
flow control and treatment products. Each project has been rated. The
opportunity size is rated from 1-10 with 1 being small and 10 being very large.
The timing for flow and treatment orders has been provided by year, e.g. T 16 =
timing of order is 2016.
PBF Eyes Mid-March Restart for Gasoline Unit at Torrance, CA Refinery
Revision Date:
3/10/2016
Tags:
324110 - Petroleum Refineries
石油精炼,
ExxonMobil, PBF Energy, PDVSA, Catalytic Cracking Unit, Electrostatic
Precipitator, Refining, Restart, Acquisition, Catalytic Cracking, Outage,
Repairs, USA
Former Cheniere CEO, Charif Souki Starting His Own LNG Company and Project
Revision Date:
3/10/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Cheniere Energy, Tellurian Investments, BG Group, Parallax Energy, Project,
Development, Liquefaction, Export, Planning, USA
Fluor Wins BASF Contract for Pasadena Revamp (T16)
Revision Date:
3/10/2016
Tags:
325110 - Petrochemical Manufacturing
石化产品生产,
Fluor Corporation, BASF, Plasticizer, Engineering, Procurement, Construction,
Design, Revamp, USA
Shell Chemical Breaks Ground on $717 Mln Louisiana Plant Expansion (06, T16)
Revision Date:
3/10/2016
Tags:
325110 - Petrochemical Manufacturing
石化产品生产,
Turner Industries, Shell Chemical LP, Project, Expansion, Manufacture,
Construction, USA
Saudi SAFCO Plans Maintenance at Ammonia, Urea Plants in 2016
Revision Date:
3/10/2016
Tags:
325110 - Petrochemical Manufacturing
石化产品生产,
SABIC, SAFCO, Shutdown, Production, Maintenance, Saudi Arabia
CUI Global Announces First Delivery of its GasPT® Technology to Europe's Snam
Rete Gas
Revision Date:
3/3/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
CUI Global, Snam Rete Gas, Orbital Gas Systems, Gas Analyzer, Technology,
Purchase, Testing, Certification, Delivery, Gas Transmission, Italy
Jacobs Helps Deliver First Gas for Chuandongbei Project
Revision Date:
3/3/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Jacobs Engineering, Unocal East China Sea, Ltd, Technology, Services, Onshore,
Gas Production, Sulfur Recovery, Engineering, Gas Treatment, Project Management,
China
Oil Sands Growth Seen Slowing or Halting After Current Work
Revision Date:
3/3/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
International Energy Agency, Cenovus Energy, Suncor Energy, Total, Royal Dutch
Shell, Upgrader, Report, Cost, Market, Environmental Standards, Slowdown,
Environmental Impact, Forecast, Growth, Canada
KBR to Deploy New Alkylation Tech for Chinese Client
Revision Date:
3/3/2016
Tags:
324110 - Petroleum Refineries
石油精炼,
KBR, Dong Ying Haike Ruilin Chemical Co, Technology, Environmental Standards,
Safety, Environmental Efficiency, Production, Refining, Licensing, China
Total, Saudi Aramco Considering Expansion of JV Refinery
Revision Date:
3/3/2016
Tags:
324110 - Petroleum Refineries
石油精炼,
325110 - Petrochemical Manufacturing
石化产品生产,
SATORP, Total, Saudi Aramco, Joint Venture, Expansion, Refining, Saudi Arabia
ClearSign Announces Duplex™ Order for Wellhead Enclosed Flare (T16)
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
ClearSign Combustion Corporation, Advanced Combustion & Process Controls,
Wellhead Enclosed Flares, Wellheads, Technology, Flaring, Installation,
Engineering, Design, Regulating, NOx Emissions Reduction, USA
Alfa Laval Wins SEK 60 Mln Energy-efficiency Order for Russian Refinery (06,
T16)
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
324110 - Petroleum Refineries
石油精炼,
Alfa Laval, Heat Exchanger, Order, Refining, Energy Efficiency, Delivery, Russia
Fluor Awarded Construction Management Contract by Sunoco Logistics for Mariner
East 2 Project
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Sunoco Logistics Partners, Fluor Corporation, Terminal, Market, Collaboration,
Construction, Storage, Operational Efficiency, Gas Processing, USA
Statoil Awarding Contracts for Oseberg Vestflanken 2, Johan Sverdrup and Gina
Krog #1 (08, T16)
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Statoil, Wellhead Platforms, Contracts, Marine, Offshore, Approval, Pipelaying,
Construction, Installation, Procurement, Development, Operations, Norway
Statoil Awarding Contracts for Oseberg Vestflanken 2, Johan Sverdrup and Gina
Krog #2 (08, T16)
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Statoil, Pipeline, Platforms, Offshore, Pipeline, Production, Norway
Statoil Awarding Contracts for Oseberg Vestflanken 2, Johan Sverdrup and Gina
Krog #3 (08, T16)
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Statoil, FSO, Pipelines, Storage, Pipeline, Norway
Phillips 66 Partners Acquires 25 Percent Interest in Sweeny Fractionator One and
Clemens Caverns
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Phillips 66 Partners, Phillips 66 Sweeney Frac LLC, Fractionator, Facilities,
Refining, Acquisition, Fractionation, Storage, USA
Emerson to Help Cameron LNG Deliver Complex, Multi-Billion Dollar LNG Project on
Schedule (06, T16)
Revision Date:
3/2/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Emerson Process Management, Cameron LNG, Trains, Software, Safety System,
Safety, Technology, Maintenance, Liquefaction, Automation, Operational
Efficiency, USA
New Coker Operating at CHS Refinery at McPherson, Kansas
Revision Date:
3/1/2016
Tags:
324110 - Petroleum Refineries
石油精炼,
CHS Inc, Coker, Decoking Control System, Automation, Refining, Construction,
Coking, Upgrade
BASF May Invest $4 Bln in Iranian Petrochemical Project (08)
Revision Date:
3/1/2016
Tags:
325110 - Petrochemical Manufacturing
石化产品生产,
BASF, National Petrochemical Co, Catalyst, Equipment, Materials, Technology,
Projects, Investment, Construction, Engineering, Licensing, Iran
Howard Midstream Energy Partners and Grupo Clisa, Nueva Era Pipeline Details
(T16)
Revision Date:
3/1/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Grupo Clisa, Howard Midstream Energy Partners, Comisión Federal de Electricidad
(CFE), Pipeline, Power, Connection, Combined Cycle, Pipeline, Construction, USA,
Mexico
Howard Energy Partners Proposes $500 Mln Pipeline System from Corpus Christi, TX
to Monterrey, México (07,T16)
Revision Date:
3/1/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Dos Aquilas LLC, Howard Midstream Energy Partners, Terminals, Pipelines,
Capacity, Open Season, Pipeline, Construction, Approval, Expansion, USA, Mexico
Increasing Investments in Gas Exploration and Offshore Oil to Boost Global FPSO
Market According to Report
Revision Date:
2/29/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Teekay Group, Samsung Heavy Industries, Yinson
Holdings, Bumi Armada Berhad, Bluewater Energy Services, BW Offshore, MODEC, SBM
Offshore, Aker Solutions, Tanker Vessels, Analysis, Financing, Construction,
Conversion, Investment, Growth, Exploration, Forecast, Americas, Europe, Asia,
Africa, Oceania
Transparency Market Research Report Says Oil Spill Management Market to Reach
$114.4 Bln by 2020
Revision Date:
2/29/2016
Tags:
, Cameron International, Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., GE Oil & Gas, SkimOil
Inc, Fender & Spill Response Services, Control Flow Inc, National Oilwell Varco,
Northern Tanker Co Oy, Pipeline, Equipment, Blowout Preventer, Market,
Regulation, Offshore, Onshore, Technology, Pipeline, Drilling, Leak Detection,
Management, Spill Response, North America, Europe, Asia, Rest of the World
Forsys Subsea Awarded Subsea FEED Contract for Trestakk Field Development with
Statoil
Revision Date:
2/29/2016
Tags:
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
原油和天然气开采,
Forsys Subsea, Statoil, Risers, Subsea Production Systems, Tiebacks, Systems,
Wellhead Equipment, Flowlines, Riser Hang-off, Study, Engineering, Design,
Norway.
These projects are covered in more detail and are integrated in a database which
is part of Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects. This semi-monthly
report is available as part of this service or as a stand-alone subscription.
The Oil/Gas/Shale/Refining E Alert is issued twice per month to
registered subscribers. It is not to be resent to others. Each subscriber must
be registered. The first subscription is $950/yr. and additional subscribers are
$90/yr. The newsletter is free for those who subscribe to
N049 Oil,
Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects.
There is a 30 percent discount for those building an Opportunity Creation
package with one or more of the market reports and one or more of the E Alerts.
These projects are covered in more detail and are integrated in a database which
is part of Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects. This semi-monthly
report is available as part of this service or as a stand-alone subscription.
The Oil/Gas/Shale/Refining E Alert is issued twice per month to registered
subscribers. It is not to be resent to others. Each subscriber must be
registered. The first subscription is $950/yr. and additional subscribers are
$90/yr. The newsletter is free for those who subscribe to
N049 Oil,
Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects.
There is a 30 percent discount for those building an Opportunity Creation
package with one or more of the market reports and one or more of the E-Alerts.
Here are Some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert – April 22, 2016
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1269 – April 22, 2016
COAL – US
-
Dominion has One Year extension for MATS Compliance at Yorktown
-
Seven US Coal-fired Power Units get 1-year extension for MATS
Compliance
-
Duke Energy shuts down Wabash River Coal-fired Power Plant in
Indiana
-
James De Young Power Plant Holland, Michigan stops burning Coal
COAL – WORLD
-
$1.1 billion for Hwange Power Plant expansion in Zimbabwe
-
Clyde Bergemann wins Two Contracts for delivery of Boiler
Efficiency Equipment for Power Plant in Korea
-
Turnbull Coalition Government (Australia) wants to build 1.2 GW
Coal-fired Power Plant, using Climate Funds
-
Parliamentary Panel gives approval for Bangladesh-India Rampal
Coal-fired Power Plant
-
Coal Block allotment recommended for Farhatabad Thermal Power
Project
-
Orion Group to set up 635 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in
Bangladesh
The
41F
Utility E-Alert
is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other
information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the
$3020
42EI Utility
Tracking System which
has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other
features.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com