September 2012 - Power Air Quality Insights 73

The McIlvaine Company is projecting an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent for the industrial valve industry over the next three years. This is about one percent lower than forecasts generated by the valve companies and their analysts. This is the conclusion just posted in the McIlvaine Industrial Valves: World Markets.

The McIlvaine Company is forecasting growth for the industrial valve industry of 4.2 percent this year and similar growth in succeeding years.

This contrasts to the forecasts published by the publicly held valve companies and the analysts who follow these companies. Here are forecasts for five companies among the largest twenty:

Ranking	Company	2011 Valve Sales	Corporate Sales
Ranking	Company	2011 Valve Sales	2012	2012 % Increase	2013	2013 % Increase	2014	2014 % Increase
1	Tyco International	2,160	18,015	3.80%	18,942	5.15%	19,852	4.80%
3	Kitz	931	1,383	2.29%	1,431	3.47%	1,530	6.92%
9	Rotork	610	800	13.80%	861	7.63%	924	7.32%
10	KSB	596	2,558	8.67%	2,670	4.38%	2,795	4.68%
17	Weir Group	373	4,102	14.42%	4,320	5.31%	4,455	3.13%

Tyco is the largest valve company (merging with Pentair). Valve sales in 2011 were $2.16 billion. Corporate sales are predicted to rise 3.8 percent in 2012. Kitz valve sales according to McIlvaine analysis were $931 million in 2011 making them the third largest industrial valve supplier. Corporate sales in 2012 are projected by the company and its analysts to reach $1.38 billion for an increase of 2.2 percent. 2014 revenues of $1.5 billion are projected. This would be an increase of close to 7 percent over the projected 2013 forecast.

The differences between the McIlvaine forecast and the aggregation of the forecasts of the individual companies are less than they seem. McIlvaine forecasts are in constant 2010 dollars. Many of the corporate forecasts are in actual dollars including inflation. The growth of the publicly held companies often includes acquisitions. So the acquiring companies on the whole will grow faster than the industry.

The company forecasts are for all products and not just valves, so this is another variable.

On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System. The cost is $125.00 for non-subscribers.

	2012
DATE	SUBJECT
September 27	Coal-fired Boiler Optimization – Part 1	Power
October 11	Coal-fired Boiler Optimization – Part 2	Power
October 18	Air Preheaters & Heat Exchangers	Power
October 25	Instrumentation for air, gas, water, liquids (forecasts, market shares, growth segments).	Market Intelligence
November 1	Cooling Towers and Cooling Water Issues	Power
November 8	FGD Scrubber Components	Power
November 15	Dampers and Expansion Joints for Coal-fired and Gas Turbine Power Plants	Power
November 29	Catalyst Selection for NO_x and Other Gases	Power

December 6	Boiler Feed and Cooling Water Treatment	Power
December 13	Co-firing Sewage Sludge, Biomass and Municipal Waste	Power
	2013
January 10	Update on Oxy-fuel Combustion	Power
January 17	Production of Fertilizer and Sulfuric Acid at Coal-fired Power Plants	Power
January 24	Gypsum Dewatering	Power
January 31	Filter media (forecasts and market drivers for media used in air, gas, liquid, fluid applications, both mobile and stationary).	Market Intelligence
February 7	Valves for Power Plants, Boilers and Water Treatment Facilities	Power

§ Foster Wheeler to supply Equipment to Coal-fired 60 MW CFB Power Plant in South Korea

§ Malaysian Firm selected for Joint Venture 1,320 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Bangladesh

§ Reliance Power starts Coal Mining for Sasan 4,000 MW Ultra Mega Power Project

§ PTBA to build 2x620 MW Power Plant in South Sumatra, Indonesia with China Huadian Help

§ Yokogawa Electric to supply Control Systems for Mong Duong 2 in Vietnam

§ Forge Group to construct $286 Million Combined Cycle Power Station in Cape Lambert, Australia

§ KGHM and Tauron to build 850 MW Blachownia Combined Cycle Power Plant in Poland

§ Reliance Infrastructure plans to convert Kerala (India) Power Plant to Gas-firing

§ Metso’s Automation Technologies reduces Emissions and Saves Money at Grant Town Power Plant

§ CoaLogix Partners with Martin Engineering for Innovative Solution to SCR Ash Buildups

Each month McIlvaine’s Renewable Energy Projects and Update carries information on the latest advances in solar technology

Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. has submitted its mission concept study to NASA for demonstrating solar electric propulsion (SEP) technologies in space.

Ball Aerospace was one of five companies awarded up to $600,000 by NASA in September 2011, to formulate a mission concept to demonstrate the solar electric propulsion technologies, capabilities, and infrastructure required for sustainable and affordable human presence in space. NASA will use the studies to plan and implement a future flight demonstration mission to test and validate those science technologies and capabilities.

The current study focused on developing concepts that will be using technology by NASA Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5 or greater. Ball’s mission concept supports NASA’s goal to elevate SEP technologies in order to create more efficient and powerful solar-powered flight systems. Ball Aerospace worked with several companies to create an implementable solar electronic technology demonstration mission for NASA including: ATK Space Systems, Busek Co. Inc., Deployable Space Systems, Gray Research Inc., and the Southwest Research Institute.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has released a new repeatable test protocol that simulates real shade conditions and can predict with much greater precision the effects of shade on a solar array.

The new test demonstrated that under heavy shading conditions the use of microinverters instead of typical string inverters can help mitigate the impacts of shade by improving system performance by more than 12 percent.

“Photovoltaic Shading Testbed for Module-level Power Electronics” was co-authored by NREL senior engineers Chris Deline and Jenya Meydbray, as well as Jason Forrest and Matt Donovan of PV Evolution Labs of Davis, CA. The research was paid for by DOE.

Shade significantly impacts photovoltaic performance, and is considered in PV system design. The effects of shade can vary depending on the configuration of the PV modules, the extent of the shade, and the use of shade mitigating power electronics in the system. The industry currently lacks representative, repeatable test procedures for evaluating the annual effect of shade on different PV systems equipped with different shade mitigation devices.

An initial application of the test protocol was conducted by PV Evolution Labs, showing the shaded performance benefit of microinverters compared with a typical string inverter on identical 8 kW solar arrays. The microinverter was found to increase system production by 3.7 percent under light shading, 7.8 percent under moderate shading, and 12.3 percent under heavy shading, relative to the reference string inverter case. Additional detail is provided in the report to allow duplication of the test method for different power electronics devices and test installations.

To help accelerate the commercialization of new technology that uses the sun’s energy rather than the electric grid or natural gas to power air-conditioning systems while co-producing renewable electricity, Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) has launched a multi-year demonstration of an advanced concentrated solar cogeneration system to benefit businesses and the region.

The uniquely designed solar thermal technology, installed at SolCalGas’ Energy Resource Center in Downey, CA uses mirrors and a tracking system to capture the sun’s energy and focus the sunlight onto an array of photovoltaic solar collectors to produce electricity and hot water at the same time. The solar-heated hot water is used in place of electricity or natural gas to power an air conditioning process to provide 10 tons of cooling, or enough air conditioning to cool two average-sized homes.

SoCalGas is the first utility in the U.S. to test and demonstrate the solar cogeneration technology manufactured by Cogenra Solar^® of Mountain View, CA. Up until now, solar cogeneration systems produced solar hot water, space heating and electricity.

The concentrated solar cogeneration technology is modular and small enough in scale to be installed on commercial, industrial and institutional building rooftops. It requires less space than flat-panel photovoltaic systems yet provides more solar power and increased efficiencies due to its dual production of electricity and heat.

3M’s Renewable Energy Division has teamed with Gossamer Space Frames to unveil a new parabolic trough solar collector technology designed to significantly reduce equipment and installation costs for CSP systems used in power generation. The Large Aperture Trough 73 (LAT 73) features a concentration factor of over 100 times and an aperture size of 7.3 million both world benchmarks for the industry.

The system combines the durability, design flexibility, and high reflectivity of 3M^™ Solar Mirror Film 1100 with the mechanical design innovations of Gossamer Space Frames; the result is a CSP solar collector system that reduces the installed cost of a parabolic trough solar field by over 25 percent. The demonstration system is fully operational and is installed at the Sunray Energy facility in Daggett, CA. Sunray is owned and operated by Cogentrix Energy, LLC and is the longest operating CSP facility in the U.S.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd., one of the world’s largest manufacturers of high-performance solar cells and solar power products, announced that it has signed a strategic partnership agreement with the Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (SITP) to establish a center for research and innovation in solar technology.

Under the terms of the partnership agreement, JA Solar and the SITP will work together to establish and operate the Center of Excellence for Photovoltaic Innovation, which will be located at JA Solar’s R&D facility in Yangzhou, China. The center will focus on developing and commercializing cutting-edge new technologies that improve solar cell conversion efficiency.

Founded in 1958, the SITP is recognized as one of the leading research institutes in the fields of optoelectronics and photovoltaic technology in China. Its more than 500 researchers have a particular expertise in infrared optoelectronics and new infrared photoelectric materials. JA Solar has worked closely with the SITP over the past two years to develop new crystalline silicon technologies, a partnership that has yields particularly encouraging results in optical absorption in nanostructures.

PV Evolution Labs (PVEL), has launched a new certification program that gives solar module manufacturers and project developers a deeper understanding of how products hold up against degradation from system voltages, a common cause of reduced performance and module failure, PVEL developed PID Certification in its ongoing effort to raise standards for solar PV quality and reliability industry-wide. Canadian Solar became the first company to pass the highly stringent certification process.

PVEL’s PID Certification simulates the voltage-related stresses that an installed module endures by subjecting modules to 600 hours of damp heat conditioning under maximum system voltage levels. By evaluating both positive and negative grounding configurations, manufacturers and power plant owners can gain confidence that the modules are being deployed in appropriate system configurations. Contrary to typical certification programs, periodic retesting is required to maintain the PVEL PID certification to ensure that evolution in the raw material supply or manufacturing does not impact module stability.

Year	Revenues $ Billions	Growth %
2012	51.3	4.2
2013	53.4	4.1
2014	55.7	4.3