October 2015 - Power Air Quality Insights 228

Suppliers are pursuing projects totaling $100 billion for new coal-fired and biomass boilers slated to start up in 2017. These projects are continually tracked in World Power Generation Projects. The combustors, steam turbines and some of the other long delivery items have already been ordered but decisions on dampers, pumps, valves, nozzles, filters and controls are now being made.

Five of the projects are in Africa, nine are in Europe, two are in South America but the remainder are in Asia. China has the largest number. Five of the projects will use biomass as the primary fuel. Four of these are in Europe and one in India. The 30 non-Chinese Asian projects are shown below:

Fuel	Project Name	Total Size (MW)
Biomass	Vemagiri expansion-GMR, India	768
Coal	ACB India Chhattisgarh power plant Kasaipalli, India	900
Coal	Barethi power plant-National Thermal Power Corp., India	3960
Coal	Chhabra 5,6 power plant-Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam, India	1320
Coal	Chipoka power plant-Intra Energy Corp., Malawi	120
Coal	Enugu-Minaj Holdings Ltd. power project, Nigeria	1000
Coal	Exxaro/GDF Suez power plant, South Africa	600
Coal	Gadarwara supercritical power plant -NTPC, India	1600
Coal	Genting Ltd power Project in Banten province, Indonesia	660
Coal	Godda power project-Jindal Steel and Power, India	1320
Coal	Jambi province power plant-EGAT/ Intermining and Energy, Thailand	500
Coal	Long Phu 1 supercritical power plant-PetroVietnam, Vietnam	1200
Coal	Maitum (Kamanga) (Alcantara) CFB power plant-Sarangani Energy, Philippines	210
Coal	Mangrol power plant-Gujarat Industries Power Co., India	600
Coal	Manjung 4 supercritical expansion-Tenaga Nasional Bhd., Malaysia	1000
Coal	Manuguru power plant-Telangana State Power Generation, India	1080
Coal	Meja supercritical power plant-NTPC, India	1320
Coal	Mong Duong 2-AES, Vietnam	1200
Coal	Mota Layja village power plant-Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services, India	4000
Coal	Nabinagar supercritical power plant-NTPC/Bihar State Electricity Board, India	1980
Coal	No. 304 Industrial Estate power plant-National Power Supply power project, Thailand	540
Coal	Pagbilao 3 CFB expansion-Aboitiz Power and TeaM Energy Philippines, Philippines	400
Coal	Pemalang supercritical power plant-PLN, Indonesia	2000
Coal	Qadirabad (Sahiwal district) power plant, Pakistan	1320
Coal	Sampur-Ceylon Electricity Board/National Thermal Power Corp., Sri Lanka	500
Coal	Sinboryeong ultrasupercritical power plant 1,2 -Korea Midland Power, South Korea	2000
Coal	Solapur supercritical power plant-NTPC, India	1320
Coal	Subic Bay power plant-Kepco Philippines Corp., Philippines	300
Coal	Sundergarh supercritical power plant-Coal India/Mahanadi Coalfields, India	1600
Coal	Talin 2 supercritical rebuild-TaiPower, Taiwan	800
Coal	Termonorte power project-Produccionj de Energia, Colombia	88
Coal	Tuzla 7-Elektroprivreda BiH (EPBiH), Bosnia	450
Coal	Van Phong 1 economic zone power plant-Sumitomo/Bach Dang-Hanoi Co., Vietnam	1320
Coal	Vodarevu UMPP, India	4000

200 Companies Account For 75 Percent of All Fabric Dust Collector and Bag Purchases

Two hundred end users and OEMs will purchase 75 percent of all the fabric filters and replacement bags in the next ten years. This is the conclusion reached by the McIlvaine Company in N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market.

One hundred twenty-six companies will account for over 60 percent of the fabric filter system purchases in 2015 and over 50 percent of the purchases over the next ten years. The discrepancy between the concentration in one year and the concentration over time is that certain companies e.g. Eskom will buy a disproportionate quantity of filters in one year. The following analysis includes 50 cement companies, 50 power companies, 10 mining companies, 10 chemical companies and 6 steel companies. When another 24 steel and chemical companies are added, the total is 150 companies which will purchase over 60 percent of the systems and bags over the next ten years. An additional 50 companies will purchase another 15 percent bringing the total to 200 companies accounting for 75 percent of the total.

The following chart shows purchases by individual companies and groups. The list is ranked by 2015 contribution to purchases. The largest individual purchaser is Eskom with 10 percent of the system purchases. Some small long range purchasers rank high on the 2015 list due to large one time projects. Colorado Springs Utility and Essar Steel are examples (not shown in the extract below). The importance of the onetime purchasers is much less in the bag segment than in total systems.

Relatively few power companies are among the top purchasers in 2015 but many are among the top potential purchasers. McIlvaine is tracking large conversions of precipitators to fabric filters. If all the coal-fired power plants converted to fabric filtration, the investment would be $80 billion just for the hardware and over $200 billion for the installed systems. The systems would clean 8 billion cfm of flue gas and would require 4 billion square feet of filter bags. The challenge is to determine how fast and how much capacity will switch. The market will be driven by the regulations in each country. McIlvaine is assessing the effect and timing of these regulations and is adjusting its forecasts continually.

Over 100 gas turbine projects totaling more than 68,000 MW are scheduled for startup in 2016. These projects are all tracked in Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Supplier Program. 15,000 MW are slated for the U.S. while 53,000 MW are located in other countries Most of the U.S. plants will include a steam cycle. All will require emission control systems with selective catalytic reduction technology. Some will incorporate zero liquid discharge for the cooling and wastewater.

Fuel	Total Size (MW)
Gas	14980

Fuel	Project Name	Size
Gas	Alpine GT - Wolverine Power, MI	400
Gas	Brownsville CCGT - Tenaska/Brownsville Public Utilities, TX	800
Gas	Brunswick County CCGT - Dominion Virginia Power, VA	1358
Gas	Carty CCGT - Portland General Electric, OR	440
Gas	FGE Texas I CCGT - FGE, TX	726
Gas	George M Sullivan CCGT expansion - Anchorage Municipal Light & Power, AK	120
Gas	Glenarm CCGT expansion - Pasadena Water & Power, CA	71
Gas	Good Spring 1 CCGT - EmberClear, PA	300
Gas	La Luz Energy Center GT - Public Service of New Mexico, NM	88
Gas	La Paloma CCGT - Coronado Ventures, TX	700
Gas	Liberty CCGT - Panda Power Funds, PA	825
Gas	Montana Power Station Unit 3 GT - El Paso Electric, TX	88
Gas	Newark Energy Center CCGT - EIF, NJ	625
Gas	Oakley CCGT - PG&E, CA	586
Gas	Patriot CCGT - Panda Power Funds, PA	829
Gas	Pecan Creek Energy Center GT - NTE Energy, TX	270
Gas	Pondera King CCGT - Competitive Power Ventures, TX	900
Gas	Port Everglades Energy Center CCGT - Florida Power & Light, FL	1277
Gas	Rayonier Fibers CHP GT - Chesapeake Utilities, FL	20
Gas	Riverton 12 combined cycle conversion - Empire District Electric Co., KS	100
Gas	Roans Prairie peakers - Tenaska, TX	694
Gas	Sand Hill 5B CCGT expansion - Austin Energy, TX	222
Gas	St. Joseph Energy Center CCGT - Development Partners, IN	1350
Gas	Temple II CCGT - Panda Power Funds, TX	791
Gas	Toquop CCGT - EWP Renewable, NV	700
Gas	Woodbridge Energy Center CCGT - CPV, NJ	700

The U.S. total could increase if one or more of the Eagle Pines turbines becomes operational. The 3,400 MW Eagle Pines Project will include three natural gas-fired combined cycle power blocks. Each block will consist of two 321 MW Alstom GT36 combustion turbines, two heat recovery steam generators and one 502 MW steam turbine. The combustion turbines may employ evaporative cooling and/or inlet high fogging for power enhancement. Each heat recovery steam generator is equipped with natural gas-fired duct burners. The construction of the first power block is planned to begin in the spring of 2016. Construction of the subsequent two power blocks are planned to begin fall of 2016 and winter of 2017.

Southern California Edison (SCE) has launched a Request for Offers (RFO) to acquire renewable energy, capacity and load reduction from new preferred resources. The utility is also looking to these resources to serve the local system, including providing ancillary grid services.

The RFO is the second solicitation launched to support SCE’s Preferred Resources Pilot (PRP) in central and southern Orange County and is seeking up to 100 megawatts for delivery in 2018.

Arizona Public Service (APS) on October 1, 2015 announced it is issuing a request for proposals (RFP) to test the market for new large-scale solar installations in Arizona that could be developed in partnership with large commercial and industrial customers.

If responses to the RFP are competitive, APS intends to explore partnerships with customers whereby APS would select a developer to build up to 40 MW of solar; APS would operate the facility once complete; and customers could sign up to purchase the output. Several customers already have expressed interest in the concept.

Dominion Virginia Power has proposed to build 56 megawatts of large-scale solar facilities that would begin producing renewable energy by December 2016.

MATS Activity in U.S. and New Coal-Fired Activity in ROW Tracked Weekly in the Utility E-Alert

McIlvaine has been publishing the Utility E-Alert for decades. In fact, the Alert last week was #1243. It provides details on retrofit and new coal-fired boiler activity around the world. There are dust, SO₂ and NO_x retrofits such as:

§ AECOM receives Selective Catalytic Reduction Retrofit Contract with Arizona Public Service

§ Malaysia’s Teknik Janakuasa to build $2 Billion Coal-fired Power Plant in Tra Vinh Province, Vietnam

§ Datang Xilinhaote Power Plant Phase I Coal-fired Power Plant proposed for Xilinhaote (Xilinhot) City, Xilingol (Xilinguole) Prefecture, Inner Mongolia

§ Ordos Shuangxin Power Station 700 MW proposed expansion for Mengxi Town, Otog Banner, Ordos (E'erduosi) Prefecture, Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia

§ Guodian Dongsheng Units 3 & 4 Power Plant expansion in Dongsheng District, Ordos Prefecture, Inner Mongolia

§ Guodian Alashan Qi Wusitai-2 Power Station planned expansion for Wusitai Town (Wusitaizhen), Alxa Prefecture, Inner Mongolia

§ China Guodian planning Coal-fired Power Plant in Bayannur Prefecture, Inner Mongolia

§ Four units (3-6, 1,000 MW each) proposed for Chaoyang Town, Heilongjiang Province, China

The Utility E-Alert is only $950/yr. For more information, click on: 41F Utility E-Alert

Forecasting of Products For Individual States and Individual End Users Within the U.S.

The standard McIlvaine market reports divide the world in 80 regions. The U.S. market is approximately one quarter of the total. The top 10 countries account for half the total. The remaining 70 countries and sub regions each average just 0.7 percent of the total. If one divides the U.S. into nine regions, the average region is 2.8 percent or four times as large as the average of the 70 countries. Some States such as California have as much as 10 percent of the National market which converts to 2.5 percent of the world market. So a State such as California ranks among the top 20 if compared to other countries. It, therefore, makes sense to forecast the individual State markets for important products. Purchasers of the McIlvaine multi-client market reports can receive this additional revenue forecast on an electronic spreadsheet. The level of detail is shown below:

	Alabama - Specific Product XX Revenues 2019 $ Millions
Industry Segment	XX product sales $ millions	% of U.S.	Basis for forecast	Criterion for large user	# of large purchasers
Food	xxx	xx	production	More than 500 employees	xxxx
Wastewater	xxx	xx	mgd	15 mgd	xxx
Coal Fired Power	xxx	xx	MW	500 MW	xx
Nuclear Power	xxx	xx	MW	1000 MW	x
Refinery	xxx	xx		Bbl/day	All 130
Pharmaceutical	xxx	xx	production	More than 500 employees	xxxx
All industries included in basic market report will be included
Total For State of Alabama
Total for South East (one of 9 regions for the U.S.)

A relatively small number of companies purchase the majority of any product. McIlvaine is identifying these companies individually. The State forecast provides the useful total of large users in each industry segment. This forecast can be supplemented with details on each large user.

For some products it may make sense to forecast revenues for sub categories e.g. splitting iron and coal from general mining or split among the various food categories such as:

For more information on State Revenue forecasts contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112.

McIlvaine webinars offer the opportunity to view the latest presentations and join discussions while sitting at your desk. Hot Topic Hours cater to the end users as well as suppliers while the Market Updates cater to the suppliers and investors. Since McIlvaine records and provides streaming media access to these webinars there is a treasure trove of value only a click away. McIlvaine webinars are free to certain McIlvaine service subscribers. There is a charge for others. Hot Topic Hours are free to owner/operators. Sponsored webinars provide insights to particular products and services. They are free. Recordings can be immediately viewed from the list provided below.

Company	% of 2015 Fabric Filter Market	Potential ($ billion)	Market	% of Potential Market	% Present Pene- tration	% High Temp
50 Power companies with 2015 purchases	20	10.0	Coal-Fired	5.4%	10	90
Eskom	10	3.0	Coal Fired	1.6%	40	90
Cement companies, ranked 7-50	5	6.0	Cement	3.2%	80	60
Top 10 Mining companies in 2015	4	5.0	Mining	2.7%	80	60
Top 10 Chemical companies in 2015	4	5.0	Chemical	2.7%	80	40
Steel companies, ranked 2-6	3.3	5.0	Steel	2.7%	80	60
Top 10 WTE in 2015	3	2.0	WTE	1.1%	80	95
Arcelor Mittal	1.3	2.0	Steel, Coal-Fired Iron Ore	1.1%	80	50
Lafarge	1.2	1.5	Cement	0.8%	80	60
Holcim	1.2	1.5	Cement	0.8%	80	60

3111	Animal Food Manufacturing
3112	Grain and Oilseed Milling
3113	Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing
3114	Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Manufacturing
3115	Dairy Product Manufacturing
3116	Animal Slaughtering and Processing
3117	Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging
3118	Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing
3119	Other Food Manufacturing
3121	Beverage Manufacturing

DATE	UPCOMING HOT TOPIC HOUR	UPCOMING MARKET UPDATES
October 22, 2015	Precipitator Improvements Decision guide to dry, hybrid and wet electrostatic precipitators for solid fuel combustion, refining and other industries. Focus will be on improvements to the electricals and components. Click here to register
November 12, 2015	Dry Scrubbing Expansion of the dry scrubber decision guide for power plants, incinerators, and other applications involving SDA, CFB and DSI. Click here to register
December 3, 2015	NO_x Reduction Decision guide to selection of SCR and SCR systems, ammonia injection, reagents, catalysts for power plants refineries, incinerators, chemical plants and other applications. Click here to register