The Global Warming Debate Can Be Resolved At Least Temporarily With a
Plan to Please Everyone
The Republicans want more jobs and the White House wants greenhouse gas
reduction. Both can be achieved with a revised version of a clean coal program.
There are new developments and options not previously explored which make this
possible. They are as follows:
Environmentalists are willing to take the long-term view as per the agreement
between China and the U.S. based on Chinese CO2 emissions peaking in 2030.
A new IEA study shows the economic life of a coal-fired power plant can be as
little as 25 years.
Advanced coal-fired power plants emit 20 percent less CO2 than old power
plants.
Waste heat utilization can double the efficiency of a coal-fired power plant.
New technologies can make coal-fired power plants more efficient.
There is an intensive debate in the U.S. relative to greenhouse gas reductions.
Both sides cite economic consequences. The reduction advocates cite the longer
term harm to the planet while the opponents cite the loss of jobs and cost
particularly in the short term. Surprisingly, there is one alternative which can
achieve the goals and increase rather than decrease jobs.
The solution lies in the fact that upgraded coal-fired boilers can emit 20
percent less CO2 than older boilers. The cost of electricity for upgraded units
would not rise because the 20 percent coal reduction and lower maintenance costs
offset the depreciation on investment. The analogy is identical to driving a new
car or an old one. Many coal-fired power plants are as old as a 1960 Studebaker
and not any more efficient.
The new agreement between China and the U.S. calls for steeper greenhouse gas
reductions. The United States intends to achieve an economy-wide target of
reducing its emissions by 26 percent - 28 percent below its 2005 level in 2025.
Relative to the contribution from the power sector, EPA proposed guidelines for
existing power plants in June 2014 which would reduce power sector emissions 30
percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
If 40 percent of coal-fired boilers were converted to the advanced supercritical
design and those plants which could economically utilize their waste heat did
so, the impact on greenhouse gases would be very substantial.
The fact that these capital investments can be amortized based on a 25 year life
means that by 2045 these power plants will be retired. They can then be replaced
with the latest technology to minimize greenhouse gas emissions.
Upgrading 40 percent of the coal fleet and providing the systems to utilize
waste heat would require an investment of more than $300 billion. This would be
a very big stimulus to the U.S. economy. It is a win-win situation in that the
reduction goals are achieved and there are jobs added rather than lost.
Some coal-fired power plants can be upgraded with new supercritical boilers but
retention of existing coal handling and waste treatment. Others may need to be
replaced in total. Waste heat utilization can be achieved in multiple ways.
Great Rivers Energy is a leader in this technology. It operates the Blue Flint
Ethanol plant with waste heat from the power plant. DOE/NETL has a number of
waste heat recovery programs. Europe has many examples of co-generation and
district heating.
As attractive as this may seem, there are those who will argue that other routes
are even more attractive. Why not replace 100,000 MW of coal-fired power plants
with gas turbine combined cycle plants? With the cost of gas at $4/MMBtu this is
a low cost route to reduce greenhouse gases. There are two problems with this
option:
Transmission of the gas can be costly and requires more infrastructures. Some
industrial plants are finding that it will cost an extra $4/MMBtu just to obtain
access.
The low gas price is temporary. Eventually U.S. gas prices will rise to world
levels. The construction of LNG and gas-to-liquids plants will ensure the
closure of the gap.
A large program is already in place to build gas turbine power generators to
fill our expanding electricity needs. The risk in trying to expand this program
to eliminate coal is too great.
Others argue that now is the time to replace coal with renewables. However, the
selection of renewables to replace coal in the short term would be very
expensive. One reason is that each of the renewable energy options has its sweet
spot but unlike coal cannot be sited anywhere.
Variables Associated With Energy Sources
Solar Irradiation Varies widely depending on the location and varies from hour
to hour and day. Typical capacity factor is 25 percent.
Wind Velocity Varies widely dependent on location and fluctuation at a location
providing a typical 30 percent capacity factor
Nuclear Power Capital Costs Estimates range from $3000 to more than $5000/kW
with recent escalation for some new plants. Considerable variation in region
e.g. low cost Chinese labor.
Nuclear External Costs Ongoing safety costs and impact of accidents such as
Fukishima, costs of waste disposal.
Biomass Fuel availability and cost.
Gas Turbine Gas price varies greatly from region to region.
Coal CO2 mitigation cost.
The economics is a function of these variables. A solar plant might have a
capital cost of $2,000/kW vs. $2,500/kW for a coal-fired power plant. But if the
solar plant has a capacity factor which is 20 percent and the coal-fired power
plant has an 85 percent factor, then the capital cost for actual electricity
produced is far higher for solar. Many of the areas with the highest irradiation
are far from where the electricity is needed, so infrastructure costs loom
large.
The reality is that coal will remain a major source of power generation in the
U.S. for the next few decades. Carbon sequestration cannot be economically
justified but supercritical upgrades and waste heat utilization have an
attractive return on investment while also meeting greenhouse gas reduction
goals.
More information on this subject can be found in N043 Fossil and Nuclear Power
Generation: World Analysis and Forecast.
Weekly updates are provided in the 42EI Utility Tracking System
Will the Market for Thermal Treatment Be $2 Billion or $4 Billion In 2019?
There are many variables which are likely to change the present forecast of $2.3
billion for thermal and catalytic oxidizer sales in 2019. These variables are
analyzed in Thermal Catalytic World Air Pollution Markets published by the
McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Thermal Treatment Market ($ Millions)
World Region 2019
Total 2,360
Africa 66
CIS 81
East Asia 922
Eastern Europe 48
Middle East 74
NAFTA 466
South & Central America 181
West Asia 138
Western Europe 384
One variable is the East Asia market. Ambient air quality in major Chinese
cities was worse than ever last year. Pollution is the number one concern of the
citizens. As a result, the government is reviewing its existing and future five
year plans. It is likely that the new regulations will boost the sales of
thermal treatment equipment beyond the forecasted totals.
India is another variable. The chemical industry is growing and simultaneously
generating more VOCs. There are few regulations. Only benzene and hydrocarbons
are targeted. Ambient air quality levels are high in many major cities. The
present forecast assumes that the lenient regulatory environment will continue.
However, a policy change could boost the 2019 world numbers.
Unconventional oil and gas is another big variable. The requirements in the U.S.
to eliminate the emissions of stranded gas from oil shale plants could be good
news for oxidizer manufacturers. The ultimate goal is to capture and process the
gas. The interim option is to flare the gas. If the gas is captured and
liquefied for transport by truck, then the oxidizer market opportunity will be
small.
China has a huge program to convert coal-to-gas, fuels and chemicals. There are
many oxidizer opportunities. McIlvaine forecasts the potential coal-to-gas
delivery will be over 200 BCM by 2025. This would be equal to the entire U.S.
shale gas output in 2011. The greenhouse gas impacts of this program are being
debated internationally. So this adds a degree of uncertainty.
The forecast is based on the revenues of the system suppliers. There is a much
bigger market for total solutions. Megtec, for example, provides ongoing support
and service which includes process advice. An example would be whether to
destroy or capture vapors. This would be dependent on the fluctuating value of
the recovered product.
These developments will continually be analyzed in Thermal Catalytic World Air
Pollution Markets. For more information, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/105-n007.
Renewable Energy Briefs
Acciona Windpower to Supply 165 MW for IKEAs Largest Renewable Energy Project
to Date
Acciona Windpower, an Acciona group subsidiary company dedicated to the design,
manufacture and sale of wind turbines, has completed a turbine supply agreement
with Apex Clean Energy, developer of the 165 MW Cameron Wind farm, which has
been purchased by IKEA Group. The agreement includes the supply of 55 Acciona
Windpower AW125/3000 turbines and a 20-year Full Service Warranty.
The Cameron Wind farm is located in South Texas, near the City of Brownsville,
and marks the first installation of AW125/3000 turbines in the U.S. Each turbine
installed at the Cameron Wind farm will have a rotor diameter of 125 meters and
a 3 megawatt generator mounted on an 87.5 meter steel tower, a configuration
that will deliver maximum energy production for the site.
Acciona plans to begin turbine deliveries in mid-2015 and the project is
expected to reach commercial operation in late 2015. When completed, the wind
farm will produce clean energy equivalent to the average annual electricity
consumption of 59,000 U.S. homes and will be a key part of IKEAs commitment to
produce by 2020 as much renewable energy as the company consumes globally. It
will be the single largest renewable energy investment made by the IKEA Group
globally to date.
Gaelectric Opens £58 Million Dunbeg Wind Farm in Ireland
Gaelectric, the renewable energy and energy storage group, officially launches
its £58 million Dunbeg Wind Farm, which is located between Limavady and
Coleraine in Northern Ireland.
Dunbeg is Gaelectric's third operating wind farm on the island of Ireland and is
one of the largest wind farms constructed on the island of Ireland. Gaelectric
is progressing a program to construct and commission a near term portfolio of
approximately 164 MWs of consented wind energy projects on the island of Ireland
by 2017.
The 42 Megawatt (MW) Dunbeg Wind Farm comprises 14 Enercon wind turbines (Model
E82, each with the capacity to generate up to 3 MW) with a maximum tip height of
125 meters. It will generate sufficient renewable power to meet the electricity
demand of nearly 24,000 homes on an annual basis.
Largest African Solar Energy Plant Comes Online in South Africa
SolarReserve has announced that the 96 megawatt (MW) photovoltaic (PV) Jasper
solar power project completed construction and is fully operational, almost two
months ahead of schedule. Jasper is located in South Africa's Northern Cape in a
solar park that also includes the 75 MW Lesedi solar power project which came
online in May, and the proposed 100 MW Redstone concentrated solar thermal power
(CSP) plant featuring SolarReserve's CSP technology with integrated energy
storage.
The Jasper Project generated about one million man-hours during construction,
peaking at over 800 on-site construction jobs. As part of the South African
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP), the
project will set aside a percentage of total project revenues for Enterprise
Development and Socio-Economic Development for the benefit of the local
communities.
With over 325,000 PV modules, the Jasper Project will deliver 180,000
megawatt-hours of renewable electricity annually for South Africa residents
enough to power up to 80,000 households through a 20-year power purchase
agreement with Eskom, the South African power utility company.
Ukraine to Alleviate energy Crisis Through Hydropower
In search of a way out of the energy crisis, Ukrainian experts claim to have
found the solution ― hydropower. The auxiliary resource has been successfully
compensating the increasing energy demand triggered by the lack of power
capacity and fuel in the past months. High liquidity and sustainability were
identified as some of the major advantages of hydroelectric energy.
"Prior to the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) in the east of the country and
before the problems with energy supply, hydroelectric power stations produced
electricity primarily during peak demand," said the director general of
Ukraine's largest hydropower company, Ukrhydroenergo, Ihor Syrota. Now, 70
percent of the company's hydroelectric facilities operate at normal capacity
around the clock, he noted.
Hydropower accounts for no more than eight percent of electricity generated in
Ukraine, whereas the average rate around the world is roughly 15 percent.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian experts are convinced that the country has enough
resources to achieve this level.
Interestingly, on October 24, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko visited the
Dniester pumped storage power plant (PSPP) where he witnessed the launch of two
hydroelectric units with a total output capacity of 648 MW.
PJSC Ukrhydroenergo, Ukraine's largest hydropower company, includes nine power
plants on the Dnieper and Dniester rivers― Kyiv, Kaniv, Kremenchuk,
Dniprodzerzhinsk, Dnipro and Kakhovka hydroelectric power plants, Kyiv PSPP,
Dniester hydroelectric power plant and Dniester PSPP. In 2014, the total
installed capacity of the company hydro power units reached 5,401 MW.
Abengoa to Develop the Largest Biomass Power Plant in the World in Belgium
Abengoa has been selected by the electricity and gas company, Belgian Eco Energy
(Bee), to develop the largest commercial plant in the world of new construction
in Ghent (Belgium), which will produce 215 MW of electricity, being one hundred
percent fueled by biomass (wood chips and agro-residues). The amount of the
project will exceed 315 million euro.
Abengoa will be responsible for the engineering, design and construction of the
plant. The project is expected to create up to 1,100 jobs during the execution
phase.
For more information on Renewable Energy Projects and Update please
visithttp://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Renewable_Energy_Projects_Brochure/renewable_energy_projects_brochure.htm
Headlines for Utility E-Alert November 14, 2014
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1200 November 14, 2014
Table of Contents
COAL US
Environmental Group alleges TVA Coal Ash Pollution is Leaking into River
Duke announces Plans to begin removing Coal Ash from Four North Carolina Sites
COAL WORLD
Indonesia to build 5,000 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Cilacap, Central Java
GAS/OIL US
Alliant proposing New Gas-fired Power Plant
CB&I wins Contract for 760 MW Combined Cycle Gas-fired Power Plant
JEA to shut Gas- and Oil-fired Unit 3
GAS/OIL WORLD
AUMA contracted to supply over 200 Actuators to aid Automation at Polish CCGT
Power Plant
BIOMASS
Detroit Developers plan a 34 MW Biomass Plant in Upper UP
SMUD evaluating Biomass Gasification CHP Project
Abengoa selected by Belgian Eco Energy to develop Biomass Power Plant in Ghent
NUCLEAR
Nuclear accord signed with China
Russia to build more Nuclear Reactors in Iran
BUSINESS
Particulate Air Pollution Definitions and Goals Keep Changing
Filter Media Sales to Exceed $12 Billion Next Year
Huge Air Pollution Market Shift Away From OECD
PG&E backs out of Oakley Power Plant Purchase
Calpine completes Purchase of Fore River Energy Center in New England for $530
Million
HOT TOPIC HOUR
Power Plant Cooling was Hot Topic on November 13
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting
on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for
subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking
System. The cost is $300.00 for non-subscribers.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input
relative to suggested additions.
DATE SUBJECT
December
18 Boiler Feedwater Treatment
Click here for the Subscriber and Power Plant Owner/Operator Registration Form
Click here for the Non-Subscribers Registration Form
Click here for the Free Hot Topic Hour Registration Form
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com